Severe potential across northern Illinois ramps up next week

Rain Tapering Off:

The heaviest rain from last night has moved out, but many are waking up to a wet start. Rainfall totals are in the .25" to 1" range, leaving roads damp ahead of the morning drive. A few lingering showers remain possible into the mid-morning hours.   

  

High pressure will quickly slide in behind the system, allowing skies to clear for the afternoon. While there will be a great deal of sun, temperatures will end up cooler than the past few days, with afternoon highs topping out in the upper 50s. The reason being, we'll see winds out of the northwest today. Skies overnight will end up staying clear of any trouble, allowing low temperatures to fall into the upper 30s. 

 

Weekend Outlook: 

As we head into the weekend, we'll continue to see rain chances pop up. Warmer air sweeping across the Midwest will help spark a few showers and storms Saturday morning, with some of that activity possibly drifting into the area later in the day. Thunderstorm chances will be a little bit higher Sunday. However, the lack of lift in the atmosphere may severely limit the potential for strong to severe storms. 

Next Week:

Tuesday and Wednesday continue to stand out as the days with the greatest severe potential locally. The Storm Prediction Center currently has the entire region under a 15% risk on Tuesday, with areas south of the Illinois-Wisconsin border under a 15% risk on Wednesday. A 15% risk is equivalent to a level 2 of 5 Slight Risk for severe weather. 

Now, there is still a lot to dive into when it comes to the timing of each individual wave. That has yet to be determined. But what we do know is that the main ingredients for active weather, including severe weather, will be very much present. Two of the primary severe ingredients include strong jet stream winds and instability, or storm energy. Both of those primary ingredients will be present early next week, all hazards to be on the table. Stay tuned for the latest and remain weather aware next week!

Active pattern with increased potential for severe weather next week

 Another stretch of active weather looks to develop next week as we get a pattern flip in the upper levels of the atmosphere. A Southwesterly direction of flow will develop, allowing a large area of the country to see an influx of warm and moist air. This will set the stage for a few rounds of severe weather toward the early half of next week.

While the timing of each individual wave is yet to be determined, the ingredients for active weather, including severe weather, will be there. Two of the primary ingredients include strong jet stream winds and instability, or storm energy. Both of those primary ingredients will be present early next week, fueling a multi-day risk for severe weather across the Plains and Midwest.

The Storm Prediction Center has already highlighted portions of the Stateline for severe weather potential for three straight days next week: Monday, Tuesday, and Wednesday. The 15% risk stands for 15% chance to see severe weather within 25 miles of a point, which is equivalent to a Level 2/5 Slight risk at this time. Each risk for severe weather will have its own individual timing and primary threats, but it is significant to see a multi-day risk like this more than a few days out. As confidence of each wave grows, be sure to stay tuned for the latest and remain weather aware next week!

Periods of heavy rain expected Thursday night

 

6:52PM UPDATE: Light to steady rain continues to move across northern Illinois this evening. Over the next hour some of the showers may begin to lighten up, but a steady and heavier rain will move in closer to 9pm.

Skies were sun-filled Thursday morning and most of Thursday afternoon following widely scattered rain showers late Wednesday night. But now the cloud cover has filled back in, leaving skies mostly cloudy to cloudy with rain beginning to move in from the west and southwest.

These showers are forming along a frontal boundary that'll slowly lift back to the north as weak low pressure moves in from the west. An increase in both moisture and wind will allow the rain to become widespread as it overspreads northern Illinois and southern Wisconsin by 6pm, with pockets of heavier rain expected by 8pm/9pm.

Totals are likely to range between half and three quarters of an inch, but there could be some locations that receive an inch, or more, by Friday morning. Following the heavy rain and flooding from late last week, there is a risk of more localized flooding with Thursday night's rainfall. Especially with the already saturated ground and rivers, creeks, and streams running high. This will raise at least a localized flooding risk tonight.

Most of the rain will be wrapping up by Friday morning but a few lingering showers may still be around through sunrise. High pressure to the north during the afternoon will leave us with a dry Friday but temperatures slightly cooler than what we've felt the last few days. Dry conditions will continue into the start of Saturday, but as another warm front nears the region the chance for a few scattered showers and thunderstorms will be possible during the afternoon, and especially during the evening and overnight.

Turning cooler with rain on the way tonight

Windy Wednesday:

Yesterday was an VERY windy day across northern Illinois. Strong southerly to southwesterly winds frequently gusted between 30-40 mph, helping much warmer air spill in. Thanks to that wind, temperatures surged well above-average compared to early-April standards, climbing into the low 70s.  

    

Cooling down:

Today and tomorrow won't nearly be as windy, but we will see a noticeable change in our weather pattern as a cold front surges southward. Even with that front, highs today remain slightly above-average in the low 60s. By Friday, cooler air settles in thanks to a north to northwest wind, bringing afternoon highs closer to normal leaving most in the upper 50s.  

Rain Chances Tonight:

Rain chances slide back in this evening, starting off light but becoming more organized and widespread as the we get into the overnight hours. Along with steady rain, a few embedded storms will be possible, though severe weather is not expected. 

  

Most areas should pick up a quarter to three-quarters of an inch, with isolated totals up to 1". The good news, coverage should wind down just before the start of the morning commute, setting the stage for a damp but improving start to the day.    

Strong winds continue Wednesday evening ahead of cold front and rain showers

 

11:00PM UPDATE: Steady rain continues to fall for some across Winnebago and Ogle counties Wednesday night, with additional showers found back to the northwest. The rain won't last too long in any one given location as the main line is moving east and northeast. Rainfall totals will remain under a quarter of an inch and will be wrapping up just before daybreak Thursday.

Southerly winds have been rather strong Wednesday afternoon gusting as high as 45 mph in a few locations. The winds will remain gusty through most of the evening, easing only when a cold front comes through after Midnight.

Ahead of the front rain showers have developed, moving from northeast Iowa into southwest Wisconsin. Some of the stronger showers have been capable of producing wind gusts around 50 mph,

pulling down some of the stronger winds aloft. Over the next couple of hours most of the rain will be to our west, with showers now extending across far northwest Jo Daviess County. But as the front begins to move east the rain will as well, spreading over most of northern Illinois between 8pm and 11pm. Scattered showers, with maybe a rumble of thunder or two, will continue through the night with around a quarter of an inch of rain falling by Thursday morning.

The front will sink south of the Stateline during the day Thursday taking the rain showers south with it. West winds will bring temperatures back into the low 60s for the afternoon. The front will then be pulled back north Thursday evening as showers and embedded thunderstorms overspread the region. Some heavier rainfall will be possible during that time (Thursday night) with rainfall totals adding up between half an inch to three quarters of an inch Friday morning. We'll dry things out for a couple days before the next chance of rain (and storms) moves in by the weekend.

Gusty winds return ahead of an unsettled stretch

Quite the Difference:

A tightening pressure gradient ahead of our next cold front will set the stage for a much warmer day. High temperatures Tuesday wound up in the low 40s, landing 12 degrees below average. But with the help of a little sunshine but more importantly, a robust south to southwest wind, we can expect afternoon highs to wind up in the upper 60s today.  

Timing of Strongest Winds:

The strongest winds are expected to arrive during the afternoon hours as daytime mixing increases and taps into the stronger winds aloft. 

Gusts will likely peak during the mid to late afternoon hours, with some locales seeing gusts approaching 40 mph. These winds will likely make it difficult for high-profile vehicles and could cause a few loose objects to be blown around, so it's good idea to secure any lightweight objects. Winds are expected to gradually ease as we progress through the overnight hours.  

Rain Chances Return:

As a cold front sweeps through tonight, it will bring the chance for a few rain showers, though coverage locally will be fairly isolated. The better potential for rain seems to end up north of the Illinois-Wisconsin border where moisture and lift will be a bit more favorable for shower development. An isolated storm or two cannot entirely be ruled out.  

More widespread rain will arrive late Thursday into Thursday night as a stronger system approaches. Rain will increase in coverage from west to east, initially starting off light. As the night goes on, heavier rain and even a few thunderstorms will sweep through the area (all non-severe). Rain should taper off during the mid-morning hours, with many locations picking up between .50" and 1.0". Additional rain chances are scheduled to move in over the weekend, with the best opportunity coming in late Saturday. 

A brief return of wintery weather Tuesday night

 The sun-filled skies we were dealt Tuesday afternoon were much appreciated, but it didn't do much to warm our temperatures as most remained in the low to mid 40s. Rockford reached 44 degrees, 12 degrees below our daily average. But we will feel a quick warm up Wednesday as winds turn to the southwest giving temperatures a nice little boost back into the mid and upper 60s. With the return of the warmer air, however, there will also be a return of some light precipitation.

Cloud cover will continue to thicken up through the evening as moisture slowly increases from the south and southwest. Temperatures will drop back into the low to mid 30s early in the evening before climbing back close to 40 by sunrise Wednesday. 

An upper-level disturbance will move in from the west bringing with it a chance for some light precipitation late evening and overnight. Initially, we may see some light snow at the onset as temperatures near the surface will be close to freezing. But as those numbers begin to climb a transition over to sleet, and then eventually light rain, will occur after Midnight. I do not anticipate any accumulation of wintry weather or impacts on the roads as anything that does fall will be rather light and surface temperatures warm enough to prevent much of anything from sticking. And as for the rain, totals of less than a tenth of an inch are expected.

Most of the precipitation will be wrapping up around daybreak Wednesday. Temperatures will have warmed into the low 40s as winds turn to the southwest. Wind speeds will pick up throughout the morning, gusting around 35 mph throughout the afternoon. This will help bring temperatures into the mid and upper 60s for the afternoon. The chance for rain will return Wednesday late evening and overnight ahead of a cold front that'll move in from the west and northwest. Rainfall totals from Wednesday night through Thursday morning will range from a quarter of an inch up to half an inch.

Gusty winds help bring a big warm-up across northern Illinois

More Wind Inbound:

Meteorological spring has certainly made its presence felt as it's been a notably windy start to the season. Through the first month and a week, the airport has observed 27 days with peak winds between 20 to 39 mph along with two high-impact days where winds soared above the 60 mph mark. 

  

Looking ahead, the wind briefly takes a break today, with lighter breezes allowing for a calmer feel across the region. That quiet period will be short-lived as winds will ramp up again Wednesday ahead of our next frontal passage. At times, gusts may climb into the 35-40 miles-per-hour range. Those stronger south to southwesterly winds will play a massive role in a more significant climb in temperatures, sending afternoon highs from the mid 40s today to the upper 60s by Wednesday afternoon.  

Active to the South:

With the jet stream to the south late this week into the upcoming weekend, severe weather potential will be best across the southern plains. The Storm Prediction Center has highlighted a 15% (Slight Risk equivalent) for portions of Texas on Saturday, then for portions of Texas and Oklahoma Sunday. 

   

The window for any severe weather potential across northern Illinois doesn't appear to arrive until the late Sunday-Monday time frame. At this point, potential remains uncertain as the forecast will go through several changes over the coming days. For the time being, the Storm Prediction Center has highlighted a 15% risk area for Monday, stretching from central Texas northward into southern Iowa. 
 

Light wintry mix possible Tuesday night, warming mid-week

 High pressure will settle in over the area Monday night into Tuesday, resulting in some seasonably chilly conditions. Starting overnight, clearing and incoming high pressure will drop us back down into the mid-20s. If you've planted anything outdoors early, be sure to protect the sensitive plants from the cold tonight!

Tuesday morning will start with some sunshine, but upper level clouds will filter in by afternoon and evening. This will work to keep afternoon highs in the 40s, about 10 degrees below average.

The cooler air will interact with some incoming moisture which may allow for a narrow band of light mixed precipitation to develop Tuesday night. At first with temperatures in the 30s, we may see some light snow or even some pockets of sleet. But quickly as temperatures rise, the primary precipitation type will flip over to rain. Any impacts to roadways will be extremely limited due to warm ground temperatures and warmer air pushing in by Wednesday morning.

We keep the warming trend up through afternoon, pushing afternoon temperatures into the mid-60s. Wednesday also comes with a bit of wind, with South or Southwest gusts toward 30 mph at times. We may see a few spotty showers toward the afternoon and evening, but most of the daytime will be on the drier side.

A frontal boundary will travel back and forth across the Stateline, bringing repeated rounds of showers. There will be many dry hours between each round. The best windows for precipitation will be centered around Wednesday night, Thursday evening, and again toward the weekend. A continued active pattern looks to develop next week, including increased potential for thunderstorms.

Late week warmup likely with higher precipitation chances

 

Although temperatures were on the cooler side for Easter it still felt great outside thanks to added sunshine through most of the day! We did stay on the breezy side however which looks to continue into this afternoon; however, we'll also be slightly cooler as temperatures will remain in the upper 40's today.

The cooler trend will continue into tomorrow where at points we may even be cold enough for some possible mixed precipitation late tonight as well as late tomorrow night into the early hours of Wednesday. Into Wednesday afternoon though our surface winds will begin to orientate southwesterly which will allow warmer air to be pulled into the region warming us up into the 60's towards the middle of the week with even warmer temperatures likely into the weekend!

As our surface and upper-level flow begin to shift southwesterly temperatures will steadily increase while precipitation chances also look likely to increase towards the end of the week. Thanks to a stalled cold front/boundary in place Thursday and Friday, consistent showers look possible for the region.

Then as we pivot into the weekend and into early next week, much of the same looks to continue. Throughout the Great Lakes region continued southwest flow into next week will allow plenty of moisture to be funneled northward allowing for plenty of opportunity for both showers and thunderstorms. 
 

Cool start to the week, steady rain returns late

 Temperatures will struggle to make it out of the 40s for the next couple days with only slim chances for precipitation. Monday could feature a few isolated sprinkles, but a broader round of mixed precipitation could arrive Tuesday night into early Wednesday. We may start out with a few light snow showers, but quickly after 2-3AM it will flip over to light rain. Roadway impacts will be limited with rising surface temperatures.

Broader coverage of precipitation will arrive toward the middle of the week with a significant increase in moisture from the South. A cold front will stall out over the area Thursday morning, producing the potential for more widespread and steady showers through Thursday.

Higher pressure will limit precipitation coverage Tuesday-Wednesday and then again Friday. Repeated rounds of steady showers will then be possible with scattered to widespread rain Thursday. And scattered showers with a few storms may be possible toward next weekend. In total, we could be looking at another inch or so of rain, but not quite the intense rainfall we saw over the last week.

Easter Sunday weather forecast: breezy but dry afternoon

 Easter Sunday will start on another cool note with temperatures in the 30s. Winds will remain strong through the afternoon, gusting upwards of 25 mph from the Northwest. But clouds will begin to clear out toward the afternoon with sunshine aiding to bring temperatures into the low 50s. While still a little breezy, the afternoon will be an improvement on the 40s with wind from the day prior.

We will remain dry throughout the afternoon, but a few pockets of light to steady showers will approach the Stateline after 8PM and could last through 11PM or 12AM Monday. Temperatures should be warm enough to keep precipitation all liquid rain, but cooler air will be working in from the North with freezing levels reaching closer to the ground by early morning.

Heavy rain moves across northern Illinois and southern Wisconsin Saturday morning

 6:30AM UPDATE: The heavy rain has come to an end but there may still be some drizzle or mist around as low pressure moves into northwest Illinois. Following the heavy rain, fog has developed with visibility dropping to under a mile in some locations. The fog won't last the entire morning but

be aware of quickly changing visibility and standing water on some roadways.

2:30AM UPDATE: A line of non-severe thunderstorms continues to move across northern Illinois and southern Wisconsin Saturday morning producing very heavy rainfall and frequent lightning. The strongest of the storms may have some gusty winds, but we are not expecting severe weather at this time.

This line will continue moving to the east/northeast through the 3am/4am hour, with a few showers lingering to sunrise. There remains a FLOOD WATCH for a portion of northern Illinois including the counties of Winnebago, Ogle, Lee, DeKalb, and McHenry until 10am. The recent heavy rainfall the last couple of days has caused a rise in local creeks, streams, and rivers. Along with that there has been quite a bit of standing water in fields and ditches. This new round of heavy rain moving through Saturday morning may lead to additional run-off and localized flooding or flash flooding.

While the line of storms is a little faster moving, heavy rain moving over the same area could increase the risk for flooding. Please be aware of any water that may be over roads and remember to never drive through a flooded roadway.

There remains a FLOOD WARNING for the Kishwaukee River from Confluence with South Branch Kishwaukee River downstream to the Rock River until Sunday afternoon. Minor flooding is occurring and is still forecast.

  

Heavy rain, flooding possible in Northern Illinois Friday night

 It has been a very wet few days in the Stateline with the steady rainfall Thursday morning followed by intense thunderstorms Thursday evening. Between those two rounds, many locations in the Stateline picked up between 1.5-4" of rainfall in less than 48 hours with more on the way Friday night.

Additional rounds of heavy rain will be possible tonight, promoting a risk for more flooding. Scattered thunderstorms will increase in coverage through the evening, with the main round coming between 10PM-2AM. There is also a low-end severe weather risk with some of these storms, with large hail being the primary concern.

Heavy rain will continue through about 1-2AM for most of the area before winding down overnight. Scattered showers will persist in some form through about 8-9AM, but with much less intensity.

With the additional storms, another 1-2" of rain may come down where strongest thunderstorms track. Flash flooding and river flooding may become a concern with already very saturated soils considering the rain from the day before. This will not be widespread 1-2" for everyone, but isolated narrow bands where thunderstorms track over the same areas could realistically see another couple inches of rain fall.

An areal flood watch is now in effect through Saturday morning for North-Central and Northeastern Illinois. Most of the heaviest rain from Thursday came down across parts of these counties, meaning the ground is already saturated. Additional rainfall will quickly turn to runoff and flood low-lying areas.

And a river flood warning is in effect for the Kishwaukee river South of Rockford through Sunday morning. The river flood gauge near Perryville Road was approaching minor flood stage and is forecast to surpass that mark with the additional rainfall tonight.

Areal flooding, river flooding, and flash flooding are all on the table tonight with the heavy rainfall set to move in. Be sure to heed any flash flood warnings and avoid driving through flooded roadways.