Storms possible Monday night and Tuesday, soaking rain mid-week

 A mild start to the day Monday will result in a very warm afternoon as temperatures push into the upper 70s and near 80 degrees in a few spots. That warmth also comes with substantial instability, or storm energy, to fuel potential thunderstorms beginning Monday night.

But that potential will not be tapped into right away because of a cap in the atmosphere. That cap will prevent storms from developing until at least late evening and could prevent storms from developing altogether. Best chances to break through this cap appear to be after 9-10PM and mainly across Southern Wisconsin.

Any storms that are able to break through the cap will have that instability to tap into. A few isolated storms could turn strong to severe as a result. The primary nighttime window of storms will promote a threat for mainly large hail, but gusty winds may also be possible. The Storm Prediction Center has placed the entire Stateline under a Level 1/5 risk for severe weather, indicating an isolated storm may be able to produce severe weather.

That cap will be much less of a problem with daytime heating on Tuesday pushing surface temperatures into the 70s again. A cold front will be the initiating point for storms Tuesday morning and afternoon. Similar to Monday night, we will have substantial instability to work with. The limiting factors Tuesday will be morning showers that could eat into the afternoon energy and the speed of the cold front which could arrive before the end of peak heating. The main threats this time around will be with wind and hail as the SPC has another Level 1/5 Marginal risk for Tuesday.

 

Monday and Tuesday is just the beginning of an active weather pattern through the next week ahead. Behind Tuesday's front there will be brief break in the widespread rain through Wednesday morning. But additional showers return Wednesday night. In total through the end of the week, several spots could see more than an inch of rainfall with pockets of likely higher totals where repeated rounds of storms pass through. There could be a risk for flooding Wednesday night into Thursday as that is when the heaviest rain may come down.