From not too bad to...it's chilly outside

If you were out very early this morning, like around 2am or 3am, temperatures weren't all that half bad.  Even our morning floor director noticed it wasn't too chilly.  I responded with - "Oh you just wait".

While we started off in the upper 40s this morning, sometime after 4am the cold front passed and temperatures have been falling ever since.  As of 10am we sit at a very chilly 31°.  Winds will remain gusty through the day with wind chills in the upper teens and low 20s.  I expect us to remain in the low 30s throughout the rest of the day.  But hey, I've got some holiday music on and a little mini christmas tree in the weather center - so I say "Bring it on!"

Weekend system is one to watch

Other than a few light snow showers expected later this afternoon the weather should remain fairly quiet (but cold)...at least until this weekend.  We're starting to pay closer attention to a storm system slated to move out of the Plains and into the Great Lakes Friday night.  This time of year the track of our weather makers is very important because it could mean the difference between shoveling snow, slipping and sliding on the roads or dealing with rain.  Looking into this upcoming weekend there are two different potential tracks this one could take.  One of our weather computer models takes the low through central and southern Illinois which would mean a very cold weekend, but also the possibility of an accumulating snow through the Great Lakes.  Another computer model takes the low further north with more warm air getting wrapped in which would likely yield some type of a mix Friday night and Saturday - with temperatures not getting as cold.  As we get closer to the weekend we should be able to get a better idea of what's going to happen.  If I were to take a guess...I would say that probably a little more of a southern track would be likely.  We'll see if I'm right!

Colder in AZ than the Stateline?

Yes sir! That's the case tonight, anyway. The forecast low for some of the Phoenix suburbs is in the 20s tonight, while temperatures across the Stateline will hold in the low to mid-40s. (No wonder they closed the roof on the dome for the Cardinals' football game tonight!) In fact, freeze warnings and hard freeze warnings are in-effect for much of the southern Arizona deserts:

URGENT - WEATHER MESSAGE

NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE PHOENIX AZ

204 PM MST MON NOV 29 2010



EVEN COLDER AIR FROM THE NORTHWEST AND NORTH WILL MOVE INTO THE

AREA TONIGHT. THE COMBINATION OF DRY AIR...CLEAR SKIES...AND LIGHT

WIND WILL RESULT IN SUB- FREEZING TEMPERATURES ACROSS THE LOWER

DESERT AREAS EARLY TUESDAY MORNING.



AZZ022-023-026>028-301200-

/O.CON.KPSR.FZ.W.0003.101130T0900Z-101130T1600Z/

NORTHWEST MARICOPA COUNTY-GREATER PHOENIX AREA-SOUTHWEST DESERTS-

SOUTHWEST MARICOPA COUNTY-

NORTHWEST AND NORTH CENTRAL PINAL COUNTY-

INCLUDING THE CITIES OF...BUCKEYE...NEW RIVER...WICKENBURG...

MESA...PHOENIX...TACNA...WELLTON...GILA BEND...APACHE JUNCTION...

CASA GRANDE...FLORENCE

204 PM MST MON NOV 29 2010



...FREEZE WARNING REMAINS IN EFFECT FROM 2 AM TO 9 AM MST

TUESDAY...



A FREEZE WARNING REMAINS IN EFFECT FROM 2 AM TO 9 AM MST TUESDAY.



* AFFECTED AREA: PORTIONS OF MARICOPA...PINAL...AND YUMA

COUNTIES...INCLUDING THE GREATER PHOENIX AREA...AND THE TOWNS

OF MARICOPA...CASA GRANDE...GILA BEND...TACNA...AND

WICKENBURG.



* TEMPERATURE: OVERNIGHT TEMPERATURES HAVE THE POTENTIAL TO DROP

BELOW FREEZING FOR SEVERAL HOURS...AND COULD FALL INTO THE MID 20S

IN NORMALLY COLDER AND ISOLATED AREAS...SUCH AS THE FRINGES OR

OUTSKIRTS OF THE GREATER PHOENIX AREA.



* IMPACTS: COLD-SENSITIVE PLANTS WILL BE HARMED IF LEFT

UNCOVERED. EXPOSED PLUMBING ALSO RUNS THE RISK OF BEING

DAMAGED. IN ADDITION...PETS SHOULD BE BROUGHT INSIDE OR

GIVEN ADEQUATE SHELTER IF POSSIBLE.



PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS...



A FREEZE WARNING MEANS SUB-FREEZING TEMPERATURES ARE IMMINENT OR

HIGHLY LIKELY. THESE CONDITIONS WILL DESTROY OR DAMAGE CROPS AND

OTHER SENSITIVE VEGETATION.

The average low for Phoenix at this time of year is 46 degrees.  --TS

Rain to move in later this afternoon

(1:18:17 PM) nwsbot: DVN issues THUNDERSTORMS WITH STRONG GUSTY WINDS MOVING THROUGH EASTERN IOWA INTO NORTHWEST ILLINOIS for Jones, Jackson, Johnson, Cedar, Clinton, Muscatine, Scott, Louisa, Des Moines [IA] and Bureau, Carroll, Henderson, Henry, Jo Daviess, McDonough, Mercer, Rock Island, Warren, Whiteside [IL] till 2:15 PM CST

12:30 pm: Watching a few showers with some embedded/elevated thunderstorms that are moving through eastern Iowa.  Look for these showers/storms to move into the area mid-afternoon.  Heavy rainfall, gusty winds and maybe even some pea-sized hail could be possible.  Look for these storms to move through northwest Illinois sometime between 2pm and 3pm.

From one end to the other....

Hard to believe that it's been one week since an EF-2 tornado touched down in parts of Winnebago and Boone counties but here we are on the 29th of November and looking at almost a similar set up to last week.  While the track of our next storm system will be almost the same as the one last week, there are however, a few things that are different.  One is the fact that we are not going to be anywhere near as warm as we were last Monday.  Temperatures on the 22nd were well into the upper 60s during the afternoon and thanks to the cloud cover this morning, we've had a hard time getting out of the upper 30s.  Second, the warm front will stay well to the south whereas on Monday the warm front lifted northward into southern Wisconsin - and it was right along the warm front we were able to get enough spin in the atmsophere to create a tornado.  Thirdly, the cold front will move through during the overnight which during this time of year would be really hard to get any severe weather going.

As we go through this afternoon the clouds will stick with us and dew points will rise some as moisture from the Gulf moves northward.  We're already starting to see a few showers pop up across eastern Iowa as the trough/low pressure in the west moves east.  Strong winds in the jetstream will continue to bring moisture northward which could lead to a steady rain later this afternoon and evening.  With a little instability in the mid-levels a few thunderstorms can't be ruled out, some of which may produce small hail.

As the low moves into the Upper Great Lakes by Tuesday afternoon temperatures will likely fall into the low 30s with a few light snow showers possible.  While no major accumulation is expected it may be enough to make roadways a little slick during the morning and afternoon commutes.

A Mild Monday...Lots of Wind Too...

A developing storm system over the plains will be the major player in Stateline weather tonight through Tuesday.  Our region will be on the warm side of the system until late Monday night.  So. we will have above normal temperatures tonight thru Monday Night.  By Monday afternoon the system will be drawing gulf moisture across our region in advance of a cold front over Iowa. Showers will break out on Monday afternoon, and there could be some isolated rumbles of thunder.  Showers will end on Monday evening, and the cold front will whip across the area before daybreak on Tuesday.  High temperatures will occur early in the day on Tuesday, and fall slowly for most of the day. It will be windy Monday and Tuesday because of the strength of the low passing to our west. With the colder air moving in there could be some snow showers on Tuesday afternoon into Tuesday night. It will be cold for the rest of the week.
By Meteorologist
Eric Nefstead

Temporary Warm Up....

High pressure will keep skies mostly clear overnight, and it will be cold.  On Sunday, with the high moving off to the east, the wind will pick up from the south, and warm Stateline temperatures up into the middle 40's. The mild weather will continue on Monday as a system moves in from the west bringing showers to northern Illinois.  A cold front will pass to the east of Rockford overnight Monday causing temperatures to tumble on Tuesday along with snow showers blown in on a stiff breeze.  It will remain cold for the rest of the work week.
By Meteorologist
Eric Nefstead

Friday Chill

After the colder night of the season so far last night.... (The unofficial low temperature at the Rockford Airport touched on 17 degrees, and was the coldest temperature since last February 26th when 14 degrees was the low.)  ....it will remain cold all day on Friday.  So, if you are doing some Christmas shopping on this Black Friday, you will need to bundle up with a good heavy winter coat.  The afternoon high temperature will be near 30 degrees.  That is a full 10 degrees colder than average for the date.  That's not the whole story.  You will also have the wind to deal with which will keep wind chills in the 10 to 15 degree range through early afternoon.  Early sunshine will give way to increasing clouds in the afternoon.  All in all it will feel more like the middle of December instead of late Novermber.   Canadian high pressure will slide across the lower Mississippi River Valley tonight and Saturday switching Stateline winds to the south by Saturday night, and the winds will pick up from Sunday into Monday in advance of a weather system edging eastward across the plains.  Temperatures will respond to the wind shift, and rebound to the middle 40's on Sunday, hold above freezing on Sunday night, and top out in the middle 40's again on Monday.  Gulf moisture feeding into the system on Monday will keep skies mostly cloudy, and there will be a good chance of showers.  The front will blast across the area overnight changing rain showers over to a brief period of wet snow.  No accumulation is anticipated at this time.  On Tuesday there cold be some snow showers or flurries as the colder air re-establishes itself.  Re-enforcing cold air from Canada will sweep in across the northern plains into the midwest late in the week.
by Meteorologist
Eric Nefstead

Chilly Outside...Toasty Inside

Our high today has already been reached and now that the cold front has passed temperatures will continue to tumble for the rest of the day.  Across the Northern Plains lows started below zero!  Yikes!  While we were in the 30s early this morning we'll fall into the lower 20s by late this afternoon.  On top of that, gusty northwest winds will bring our wind chills into the teens. 

But don't worry - while it will be a chilly 22° by 4pm today, the temperature inside (the oven that is) will be a balmy 350°!  I think it will be a good day to stay indoors!

Happy Thanksgiving!

Update on Caledonia Tornado

The National Weather Service was able to access some additional information today, and has this update on the path of the Caledonia tornado:

...UPDATED INFORMATION REGARDING THE 22 NOVEMBER 2010 TORNADOES IN WINNEBAGO, BOONE, AND MCHENRY COUNTIES...
ON TUESDAY A TEAM FROM THE NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE OFFICE IN
ROMEOVILLE PERFORMED AN ONSITE SURVEY OF THE DAMAGE RESULTING FROM MONDAY'S TORNADO. PRELIMINARY RESULTS OF THE SURVEY WERE RELEASED TUESDAY AFTERNOON. BASED ON ADDITIONAL INFORMATION REVIEWED AFTER THE SURVEY...INCLUDING PHOTOS, VIDEOS, AND REPORTS FROM EYE WITNESSES...PLUS A MORE DETAILED MAPPING OF THE TORNADO'S PATH, TWO ADJUSTMENTS WILL BE MADE TO THE PRELIMINARY TORNADO TRACK REPORTED ON TUESDAY.
THE FIRST ADJUSTMENT WILL BE TO THE STARTING POINT AND TIME OF THE
TORNADO'S TRACK. THE PRELIMINARY TRACK DID NOT ACCOUNT FOR DAMAGE ALONG PAULSON ROAD EAST OF I-39 IN LOVES PARK. THAT ROAD WAS CLOSED AND BLOCKED OFF, SO THE SURVEY TEAM WAS NOT ACTUALLY ABLE TO VIEW THIS DAMAGE FROM THE GROUND. THE PRELIMINARY TRACK ALSO DID NOT ACCOUNT FOR AN EYEWITNESS REPORT OF A TORNADO TOUCHDOWN IN THE BACKYARD OF A HOME JUST WEST OF I-39, ON THE EASTERN EDGE OF A SUBDIVISION WHERE THUNDERSTORM WIND DAMAGE HAD BEEN IDENTIFIED. BASED ON THIS INFORMATION...TOGETHER WITH MULTIPLE VIDEOS OF THE TORNADO...THE NEWLY ESTIMATED STARTING POINT OF THE TORNADO TRACK IS NEAR LATITUDE 42.33 N AND LONGITUDE 88.97 W NEAR HARVEY ROAD. THE
NEWLY ESTIMATED START TIME OF THE TORNADO TOUCHDOWN IS 3:00 PM CST.

THE SECOND ADJUSTMENT TO THE PRELIMINARY REPORT RELEASED YESTERDAY IS THE ADDITION OF A NEW AND SEPARATE TORNADO THAT TOUCHED DOWN AROUND 3:30 PM CST IN THE EXTREME NORTHERN PART OF MCHENRY COUNTY. THIS EF0 TORNADO WITH WINDS ESTIMATED AT 70 MPH WAS APPROXIMATELY 50 YARDS WIDE AND 200 YARDS LONG. THE LOCATION OF THIS TORNADO...BASED ON INFORMATION RECEIVED FROM COUNTY OFFICIALS...WAS BETWEEN 42.4932N 88.5704W AND 42.4949N 88.5697 W. THE PATH OF THIS TORNADO CONTINUED INTO WISCONSIN AND IS BEING DOCUMENTED BY THE NWS OFFICE IN MILWAUKEE.
ALL OF THIS INFORMATION SHOULD BE CONSIDERED PRELIMINARY.
ADDITIONAL UPDATES WILL BE PROVIDED IF AND WHEN NEW REPORTS AND DATA BECOME AVAILABLE. THE FINAL SUMMARY OF THIS EVENT WILL BE ISSUED IN THE MONTHLY STORMDATA PUBLICATION.

Storm Reports from Around the Region

Freezing Rain Advisory across parts of northeast Iowa.  Be advised if travel plans take you west across parts of Highway 20.  Also - roads may be a little slick northward into Wisconsin.

The freezing rain threat will continue to increase east of the Rockford area through the afternoon so anyone with travel plans in northeast Illinois and Indiana be aware of some icy roadways. 

(11:17:09 AM) nwsbot: DVN issues THUNDERSTORMS WITH SLEET AND FREEZING RAIN OVERSPREADING PORTIONS OF EAST CENTRAL IOWA LATE THIS MORNING for Benton, Buchanan, Delaware, Iowa, Johnson, Linn [IA] till 12:45 PM CST

(9:36:40 AM) nwsbot: ILX: Lincoln [Logan Co, IL] official nws obs reports FREEZING RAIN of M0.10 INCH at 09:30 AM CST -- measured on trees at the nws office


(9:36:40 AM) nwsbot: ILX: Clinton [De Witt Co, IL] mesonet reports FREEZING RAIN of E0.00 INCH at 09:26 AM CST -- sidewalks are slick...swop report

(9:38:23 AM) nwsbot: ILX: St. David [Fulton Co, IL] mesonet reports FREEZING RAIN of E0.00 INCH at 09:29 AM CST -- light coating of ice on the south side of objects

(9:38:23 AM) nwsbot: ILX: 3 Sw Bloomington [Mclean Co, IL] nws employee reports FREEZING RAIN of E0.00 INCH at 09:29 AM CST -- light icing on elevated surfaces

(9:25:49 AM) nwsbot: ILX: Hopewell [Marshall Co, IL] mesonet reports FREEZING RAIN of E0.00 INCH at 09:20 AM CST -- glaze of ice on elevated surfaces and parked cars. concrete is wet but not ice covered

(9:23:40 AM) nwsbot: ILX: 1 W El Paso [Woodford Co, IL] emergency mngr reports FREEZING RAIN of E0.00 INCH at 09:15 AM CST -- multiple vehicle accident on i-39 near el paso...bridges are slick

(9:12:32 AM) nwsbot: ILX: Mattoon [Coles Co, IL] mesonet reports FREEZING RAIN of M0.10 INCH at 09:03 AM CST -- ice accumulation over the past 3 hours...swop report.

(9:05:32 AM) nwsbot: ILX: Ogden [Champaign Co, IL] co-op observer reports FREEZING RAIN of M0.04 INCH at 08:58 AM CST -- ice on sidewalks and other objects


9:05:32 AM) nwsbot: ILX: Normal [Mclean Co, IL] mesonet reports FREEZING RAIN of E0.00 INCH at 09:00 AM CST -- interstate bridges on the north side of normal are slick...swop report

Holiday Travel may be a little Slick

Winter Weather Advisories to the North and Winter Weather/Freezing Rain Advisories to the South

As of right now there are no current Advisories for the Stateline, but be careful as you get ready to head out for your holiday travels.  Either up to the north or down to the south you will more than likely run into some type of weather delay.  We'll be watching temperatures fairly closely throughout the morning and afternoon hours as that will help determine what type of precipitation we see.   Freezing rain is already being reported down through Central Illinois where in Peoria there have been numerous traffic accidents from I-474 East thru the city - mostly on ramps and overpasses.  Temperatures here have been rising into the lower 30s, but looking at the forecast sounding from Davenport (which shows how the temperature and dew point change with height) there is a warmer, but dry, layer aloft.  This will more than likely allow the precipitation to evaporate before reaching the ground but also help to cool the atmosphere above because evaporation is a cooling process.  So that's why I believe we could see freezing rain in the beginning before possibly changing over to a mix of freezing rain/sleet/rain later this afternoon.  As the low pressure system pulls closer to us tonight, there might be enough warm air that gets wrapped into it that we might see a change over to all rain before changing back to freezing rain, along with some fog, tonight and Thursday morning.

Click here for information on Illinois roadways
Click here for information on Wisconsin roadways

Caledonia Tornado Path

Courtesy: National Weather Service

EF-2 Tornado Confirmed in Caledonia

From the Chicago National Weather Service:

EF2 Tornado confirmed at Caledonia

The tornado touched down at approximately 3:04 pm ¼ mile southwest of the intersection of Argyle and Harlem Roads. A school bus was rolled by the tornado winds where 6 people were injuried, fortunately those injuries were minor. The tornado crossed the path of high tension lines that run just west of Argyle and 11 towers were downed. The tornado moved northeast into Caledonia – damage there included significant damage to around 6 buildings, with approximately 20 additional buildings sustaining minor damage. Several large trees were snapped or uprooted. A grain bin was partially collapsed. The tornado continued northeast out of Caledonia with several power poles down across roads. As the tornado crossed various lines of trees in the fields sections of trees were snapped or uprooted. Around 3 farm outbuildings sustained damage ranging from roofs blown off to complete collapsed of structures. One of the 3 outbuildings, located 2 miles northwest of Capron, was also damaged during the January 2008 tornado. Sporadic tree damage continued to the end point where the tornado lifted... 1 mile west of Lawrence at approximately 3:23 pm.

Path width: 200 yards (varied between 50 and 200 yards)

Path length: 16.4 miles

Estimated winds: 135 mph

In addition to the above tornado, thunderstorm wind damage occurred near McFarland and Thomas Drive in Loves Park where shingles were blown off roofs and fascia was damaged on several houses.

Tornado/Damage Pictures

NWS to Conduct Damage Survey Today

Science and Operations Officer Eric Lenning and Lead Forecaster David Beachler from the National Weather Service in Chicago will be surveying the damage of Monday's storms from Loves Park through Caledonia, and also in McHenry County.  The assessment will more than likely last through a good part of the day but we won't have the final results on just how many tornadoes, EF rating, etc - until the entire survey is done.  We will pass along any information as we continue to get it in. - CK

November Tornado!

It was an interesting day across the Stateline. On November 22nd in this part of the country, even the most experienced meteorologists aren't seriously thinking about severe weather when they roll out of bed. This morning I looked briefly at some surface observations, and noted our elevated dewpoints, the strong southerly flow, and a strong front/surface low to our west. I thought more thunderstorms would be possible, but will admit that a November tornado didn't cross my mind. So I took care of a few errands, and then went to the gym for my morning workout.

When I got back, I had a voice message on my phone from Candice -- our morning meteorologist -- about a slight risk for severe weather issued by the Storm Prediction Center. Then I looked down at my weather radio at home, and noticed a tornado watch had been issued for the entire Stateline viewing area through 6pm. So I showered, scarfed down my lunch, and got over to work as fast as I could.

Without having much more time to think, severe storms began crossing the Mississippi River from Iowa and into our area. Candice and I continued to watch these storms closely for rotation, and monitored our NWS chat box for updates. Sometime just before 2:30, I noticed rotation in a cell near the Bureau/Lee county line. (Indeed... a funnel cloud was later sighted with this storm in southern DeKalb county with this same cell.) Then we noticed rotation in a cell moving into Winnebago county. Reports soon came flowing in of "rising scud clouds" near Alpine Rd. north of Rockford, and power lines down due to a possible tornado at Rock Cut State Park.

From there, the damage reports kept coming in. A silo destroyed in Caledonia, a business destroyed, homes damaged, a school bus blown over with six people injured, power lines down, and damage to a large substation... And all these reports were coming from the Caledonia area. The tornado was reported to be 1/2 mile wide at its peak width! The same tornado continued to move parallel to Hwy. 173, and was later sighted west of Harvard, and then near the town of Lawrence.

Fortunately, the severe weather we had today will be but a memory tomorrow and throughout the Thanksgiving holiday weekend as seasonably cold weather arrives, and replaces the warm, humid, and volitile air that bought us our late season twister.  --TS

Storm Damage and Reports

A big thank you to Jim Acheson in Loves Park for sending us this video of the tornado as it moved through.



We continue to get reports in this evening of the tornado that passed through parts of Winnebago and Boone counties.  Information to come....

Watches/Warnings and Storm Reports

(3:24:03 PM) nwsbot: LOT issues Tornado Warning for De Kalb, Kane [IL] till 3:45 PM CST ...* AT 318 PM CST...NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE DOPPLER RADAR INDICATED A SEVERE THUNDERSTORM CAPABLE OF PRODUCING A TORNADO. THIS DANGEROUS STORM WAS LOCATED ALONG U.S. ROUTE 30 BETWEEN SHABBONA...AND WATERMAN. THIS STORM IS MOVING NORTHEAST AT 45 MPH.

(3:20:13 PM) nwsbot: LOT: 4 E Loves Park [Boone Co, IL] broadcast media reports TORNADO at 03:00 PM CST -- estimated 1/2 mile wide tornado spotted on ground at the intersection of argyle rd and harlem rd east of rock cut state park near caledonia. power lines down and debris in the air reported in the area.

(3:09:50 PM) nwsbot: LOT continues Tornado Warning for Boone, McHenry, Winnebago [IL] till 3:30 PM CST ...AT 304 PM CST...NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE DOPPLER RADAR WAS TRACKING A CONFIRMED TORNADO. THIS TORNADO WAS LOCATED AT THE INTERSECTION OF ARGYLE AND HARLEM JUST WEST OF CALEDONIA...AND JUST EAST OF ROCK CUT STATE PARK. THIS DANGEROUS STORM WAS MOVING NORTHEAST AT 45 MPH.

(3:04:02 PM) nwsbot: LOT issues Tornado Warning for Boone, McHenry, Winnebago [IL] till 3:30 PM CST ...* AT 300 PM...NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE DOPPLER RADAR INDICATED A SEVERE THUNDERSTORM CAPABLE OF PRODUCING A TORNADO. THIS DANGEROUS STORM WAS LOCATED NEAR LOVES PARK...AND MOVING NORTHEAST AT 50 MPH.

2:45pm Update:  Severe Thunderstorm Warnings continue for Winnebago, Boone counties until 3pm.  These are quick moving storms moving to the northeast around 55 mph.  Hail along with wind gusts of 60 mph can be expected with these storms.  Also, Severe Thunderstorm Warnings continue for Lee and DeKalb counties until 3pm.

(2:30:54 PM) nwsbot: LOT issues Severe Thunderstorm Warning [wind: 60 MPH, hail: 1.75 IN] for De Kalb, La Salle, Lee [IL] till 3:00 PM CST

(2:30:57 PM) nwsbot: DVN: 2 Wsw German Valley [Stephenson Co, IL] trained spotter reports HAIL of pea size (E0.25 INCH) at 02:23 PM CST

(2:20:08 PM) nwsbot: LOT continues Severe Thunderstorm Warning [ind: 60 MPH, hail: 1.75 IN] for La Salle, Lee [IL] till 2:30 PM CST

(2:16:40 PM) nwsbot: LOT issues Severe Thunderstorm Warning [wind: 60 MPH, hail: 1.00 IN] for Boone, Ogle, Winnebago [IL] till 3:00 PM CST


(2:10:11 PM) nwsbot: DVN issues STRONG THUNDERSTORM AFFECTING PORTIONS OF CARROLL COUNTY TO MOVE INTO STEPHENSON COUNTY for Carroll, Stephenson [IL] till 3:15 PM CST

(2:06:46 PM) nwsbot: LOT issues Severe Thunderstorm Warning [wind: 60 MPH, hail: 1.00 IN] for La Salle, Lee [IL] till 2:30 PM CST

Storm Report:  1 N Mount Carroll: Carroll County - 0.25 inch hail

Severe Thunderstorm Warning for Green County in southern Wisconsin until 2:15pm.

The Storm Prediction Center has extended the Tornado Watch to include Green, Rock and Walworth counties in southern Wisconsin until 6pm.

1:15pm:  Severe Thunderstorm Warning for Jo Daviess county until 2:15pm.  The storm is near Galena and moving northeast at 55 mph. 

A Tornado Watch is still in effect for northern Illinois and may be extended to include parts of southern/southeastern Wisconsin.  Wind profiles are showing an increase in the amount of shear in the atmosphere which may lead to a few isolated tornadoes.  We'll continue to monitor the weather situation this afternoon and keep you updated.

Tornado Watch Issued

A Tornado Watch has been issued for all Northern Illinois counties until 6pm this evening.  This includes the counties of Jo Daviess, Stephenson, Carroll, Whiteside, Winnebago, Boone, McHenry, Ogle, Lee and DeKalb.

Noon Update: Storms are quickly developing to the southwest where skies have cleared some this morning.  These are all forming along a cold front that will quickly move in by this afternoon.  Storms will likely produce some gusty winds and hail but there may just be enough shear (or spin) in the atmosphere to get a few individual cells that could produce a quick tornado.

Changes on the way

A pattern change is on the way and it all started with the thunderstorms we saw this morning.  A cold front with an area of low pressure north of Wisconsin this morning combined with strong low level winds helped fire off a few storms early on.  Those have sinced moved across the other side of Lake Michigan as an area of low pressure has quickly pushed that front back north as a warm front.  Temperatures as of 10 am are already approaching close to 60° in some locations!  As this next low moves closer to northeast Iowa, strong winds aloft will continue to pump in modified gulf air.  This will combine with another cold front (a stronger cold front) that will move through during the afternoon/early evening.  As it does we can't rule out the development of a few more storms by dinner time.  The latest outlook from the Storm Prediction Center has highlighted much of the Stateline in a slight risk for severe weather with the greatest threat being gusty winds.  The stronger winds above will help create gusty winds at the surface today and tonight. 

As the cold front moves through temperatures will drop by daybreak Tuesday with lows in the middle and upper 20s and we'll only rise into the upper 30s by the afternoon. 

Storms this Morning

(6:17:24 AM) nwsbot: MKX issues STRONG THUNDERSTORM NEAR NEW GLARUS MOVING NORTHEAST for Dane, Green, Jefferson, Rock [WI] till 6:45 AM CST


Showers and storms continue to move northeast this morning across parts of south-central Wisconsin and north-central Illinois.  These storms are moving pretty quickly around 40 - 50 mph.  As they move through look for gusty winds, heavy rainfall and maybe even pea to penny sized hail.  Storms will be out of here by later this morning but then could redevelop this afternoon as a warm front lifts back north.

Thanksgiving Week Promises a Wide Variety of Weather

A cold front is expected to stall out in the Rockford area overnight. It will be pulled back slightly to the northwest on Monday as a low moves from northeastern Kansas to northeastern Iowa by noon on Monday.. A very mild air flow will persist until Monday evening. Then, much colder weather will arrive on Monday night as a strong  cold front blasts southeast across the Stateline.  In the interim with very moist air in place, there could be some showers overnight. Even a thunderstorm is rolling through eastern Iowa toward northwestern Illinois as of 11pm on Sunday night.  On Monday, with a front nearby, and disturbances rolling in from the southwest, there will be a good chance of showers, and even some thunderstorms. Afternoon highs on Monday will be in the low 60's. Showers will come to an end in the evening with the passage of a cold front dropping temperatures sharply into the 20's overnight. Tuesday will be mostly sunny and much colder with a high in the upper 30's with Canadian high pressure over the northern plains dominating the weather across the upper midwest.  That high will shift eastward across the Great Lakes by Wednesday morning as a large area of low pressure spins out of the mountains of Colorado to a position over northern Minnesota by early Thanksgiving Day allowing a fresh blast of Canadian arctic air to chill northern Illinois along with a chance of a few snow flurries or snow showers.  High temperatures on Thanksgiving Day are only expected to be in the low 30's, and in fact, temperatures  will probably drop back into the  upper 20's by late Thursday afternoon.  Windy conditions will add to the discomfort with wind chills becoming a factor.  The cold blustery conditions will persist through Friday.  The wind will ease up on Saturday as high pressure takes full control of Stateline weather.  Temperatures will slowly moderate upward during the weekend under mostly sunny skies.
By Meteorolgist
Eric Nefstead

2 more MIld Days and Then Winter Checks In.

A warm front is approaching from the south tonight.. There may be some patchy fog and drizzle after midnight.  On Sunday morning there may be some lingering drizzle and light rain.  Very mild temps are anticipated in the afternoon with highs in the upper 50's.  The unseasonably mild weather will continue through Monday. A disturbance moving in on Monday may even be strong enough to generate some isolated thunderstorms along with more widespread showers in the morning. There will be a sharp trend to colder conditions for the rest of the week with arctic air sweeping across the area mid to late week.  There may be some rain and snow showers mixed on Wednesday, some snow on Wednesday night, and blustery cold winds and snow flurries on Thnaksgiving Day.  How cold will it get?  The high temperature on Thanksgiving Day may have a hard time getting out of the 20's, and the low temperature on Thursday night will be in the teens... Sounds a lot like winter...doesn't it?
By Meteorologist
Eric Nefstead

Thanksgiving holiday could be cold!

Anyone with travel plans around the Thanksgiving holiday may want to pay special attention to the forecast.  As it stands now, a cold front will move through Monday night into Tuesday as a trough in the jestream develops in the southwest.  Winds aloft will come screaming in from the southwest which will help develop an area of low pressure in the southern Plains - and it's this low that could bring the Stateline it's first potential snowfall and also some of the coldest air we've seen so far this season.  While nothing is set in stone just yet, it looks like the low will may move through southern Illinois Wednesday night and into the northeast by Thursday night.  If this were the case the lower Great Lakes would probably see some type of snowfall accumulation.  However, if the low were to track further south and east the snowfall wouldn't amount to much - which looks like that might be the case. While the probability of snowfall is still a little uncertain it does look like the cold air that has been bottled up in Canada and Alaska will have its eyes set on the Midwest.  There is a chance that Thanksgiving day we might not even break the freezing mark!

This has nothing to do with weather but....

....you wait for it...wait for it...and then....

Cloudy or Clear? It Makes a Difference!

After a clear to partly cloudy start to the evening, some clouds have drifted back into the Stateline. Meteorologists will often talk about clouds as being an "insulating" factor at night, and this is a prime example. The 10:00pm surface map at left shows our temperature holding at 31 degrees with mostly cloudy skies (the circle near the RFD text is 3/4-full, indicating roughly 3/4 of the sky is cloud-covered). With clear skies, Pontiac, IL is at 23 degrees (the circle near the PNT text is open, indicating little or no cloud cover). The clear skies over Pontiac are allowing radiational cooling, or heat-loss to space, to occur much more efficiently than at Rockford.

Eventually, clouds will again decrease over the Stateline overnight. But a developing south wind will prevent us from falling much below the upper-20s, despite the clearing trend.       --TS

Expansion of River Forecasts on the Rock River

Beginning December 15th, 2010, the National Weather Service Chicago Forecast Office will begin providing river forecast and flood warning services for the Rock River at Dixon, IL.  Flood stage for the new point, located at Dixon at the Peoria Avenue Bridge, will be designated as 16 feet.  Flood stage impact levels should be considered provisional and may be modified at a later date, based on field observations or other supporting data.

River Forecast and Flood Warning information will be available from the NWS Advanced Hydrologic Prediction Service page by clicking on the Rivers and Lakes link on the NWS Chicago website:  www.weather.gov/chicago.

River Flood information will also be broadcast on the Dixon, IL NOAA Weather Radio KZZ55.

Implementation of this new river forecast point has come about with the cooperation from agencies including: the National Weather Service, Chicago Office, the U.S. Geological Survey, Illinois Department of Natural Resources/Office of Water Resources, and the Lee County Emergency Management Agency.

If you have any questions or comments on these upcoming changes, please contact:

William Morris - Service Hydrologist
National Weather Service Forecast Office
333 W. University Drive
Romeoville, IL. 60446
815-834-0600 ext. 493

Kevin Lalley
Director of Lee County Emergency Management Agency
815-284-3364

Winter Weather for Thanksgiving?

Courtesy: NCEP

It certainly will be colder! Some of our longer range computer models, like the Global model shown at left, indicate sub-freezing temperatures and a chance for snow by Thanksgiving and "Black Friday". (The image shown is valid at approximately noon on Friday, November 26th.) Even though the accuracy of long range computer models is low, the trend for colder air plunging southward from Canada later next week has been pretty consistent. So although it's tough to nail-down exact temperatures, it looks like highs will be below average by late next week. And as we transition from the mild air we are experiencing right now to the much colder air coming, a strong cold front and/or a series of surface lows will likely move across the Stateline with a chance for rain and/or snow.  --TS

Mild First Half of November

We're now at the halfway point of November, and temperatures are averaging well above average again. Through the 14th, Rockford is running 5.9 degrees above the long-term average temperature of 40.9. (Our warmest November ever was in 2001 when we averaged 47.6 degrees for the whole month.) We've also been drier than average, with just 0.26" of precipitation. Normal to date is 1.24". Seasonably mild, dry weather is expected for much of the rest of the week, with colder air likely the week of Thanksgiving.  --TS

Showers Moving Through

A few showers (moderate at times) can be expected the rest of this afternoon.  Rain continues to move northeast along I-39/I-88, but there are a few popping up in Carroll county that could move into the Rockford region later today.

Winter Weather Preparedness Week: November 14th - 20th

I know, it's hard to think about but winter is just right around the corner and to help you prepare - this week is Winter Weather Preparedness week in Illinois.  There are several things you can do to get yourself and your home ready for this upcoming winter season.

Illinois Emergency Management Agency Winter Preparedness Guide

National Weather Service Winter Weather Page

Nice Monday for the Stateline

Yesterday's Minnesota snowstorm is crossing Lake Superior into Canada this evening. One last disturbance is rotating around the southwest quadrant of the system is bringing some sprinkles to the stateline to the south and east of Rockford early tonight.  With the disturbance will shifting off to the east it will be partly cloudy for the rest of the night.  Weak high pressure will pass to our south on Monday keeping winds southerly. Temperatures will make a nice recovery back into the low 50's under mostly sunny skies on Monday afternoon.  Clouds will increase on Monday night in advance of the next weather system dropping southeast across the northern plains.  Temperatures are expected to be in the low 50's again on Tuesday under partly cloudy skies with a slight chance of some light rain showers.  The low will continue to move to the southeast Tuesday night and Wednesday  continuing chances of light rain showers.  As colder air follows in behind the departing low on Wednesday night light rain showers may become mixed with a some wet snow flakes.  A strong cold front will bring cold temperatures to the upper midwest on Thursday.  It looks like afternoon highs will be in the upper 30's.  A nice recovery is expected under sunny skies taking temperatures back to the upper 40's.  The next chance of rain will be on Saturday night and Sunday.
By Meteorologist
Eric Nefstead

A Colder Pattern Settling into the Stateline

The first major snowstorm of the season for the upper midwest is winding down over eastern Minnesota and northwestern Wisconsin tonight.  The low pressure center is located over north central Wisconsin as of midnight Saturday night.  It laid down a band of heavy snow from westen Iowa across southwest MInnesota northeast through Minneapolis and Duluth grazing northwestern Wisconsin.  The heaviest reported total as of this hour is the 14" at Emmetsburg, Iowa.  Nearly a foot was tallied from there northeast through the Twin Cities.   The storm center will continue to move northeast over night crossing Lake Superior on by Sunday night, and reaching James Bay in Canada by daybreak on Monday.  Colder air is being wrapped around the departing low.  The high temperature on Sunday will only be in the middle 40's. The pressure gradient is fairly tight so the wind will be fairly brisk tonight, and gradually subside on Sunday as the low pulls across Lake Superior.  Weak high pressure will follow in behind the departing system on Monday, and the temperature will recover into the low 50's.  Clouds will increase along with a slight chance of light rain showers on Monday night as a Clipper System drops southeast across the plains to near Kansas City by Tuesday morning..  Temperatures will not be quite as warm on Tuesday with the clouds and the threat of some light rain.
By Meteorologist
Eric Nefstead

Soft Tires? Blame the Weather!

Just don't blame the weatherman! I was on my way out the door and off to work on Monday of this week when I noticed I had a flat tire. Since the tire was completely flat and it didn't need a patch to fill again, somone must have been mad at the weatherman and let the air out of my tire. (Maybe I missed the forecast for their last fall cookout?)

But that's besides the point of this post. The point that I want to make here is the weather itself can actually change the pressure in your tires! The temperature inside your tire changes at a much slower rate than that of the surrounding atmosphere. On a day that features a sharp drop in temperature, your tires may deflate some. That's because the cold air on the outside will exhibit higher pressure on your tire than the warmer air that preceeded it the day before. It works this way because cold air is "heavier", or more dense, than warm air and exhibits higher pressure. So as colder air arrives on Sunday, be sure to check your tire pressure!  --TS

Weekend Rainfall

Rainfall totals across the immediate Stateline won't be all that impressive as a lot of the heaviest rain should remain off to the northwest.  The low pressure system will move through northeast Iowa later tonight keeping the bulk of the heaviest precip across Iowa and into Minnesota and Wisconsin.  Some of which was already seen this morning.  Anywhere between a quarter to half an inch will be possible through this weekend.  Some places further northwest may be on the higher end.

Winter Storm up North

An area of low pressure in the southern Plains will continue to develop and move northeast across northern Missouri later tonight and into Wisconsin by Saturday.  While we'll continue to remain on the warm side, enough cold air will get wrapped into the low that possibily up to 8 inches of snow could fall across the Northland of Wisconsin!  Winter Storm Watches has been issued for Saturday and stretch from northern Wisconsin into Minnesota.  Winter Storm Warnings will likely be issued for some.  Any precipitation we see Saturday should remain in the liquid form.  Had the low taken a more easterly track...we might have seen some of the 'white' stuff in our neck of the woods.   

Snow a Week from Today?

While it's not set in stone just yet, a clipper coming out of Canada next week will need some watching as some indications are pointing at the potential for our first accumulating snow across the Midwest and Great Lakes.  A pattern change is about to take place that would put much cooler air across the Central U.S.  This would allow for temperatures to fall at or below average through at least the week of Thanksgiving.

Armistice Day Blizzard - 70 Years Later

The Armistice Day blizzard of 1940 was the type of storm that engenders legends.  It was a mild fall across the Upper Midwest with temperatures reading well above average on that fateful day; Chicago was already at 55° at 7:30 am.

Going back in meteorological time, forecasts and warnings were much different in 1940 than what they are today.  Up until 1934 the Weather Bureau Offices operated 12-15 hours a day with basic observations taken twice daily - 8am and 8pm.  Satellite images were something of the future and very few upper-air observations were taken.  The Chicago District was responsible for producing forecasts for 8 different states that were issued mid morning and mid evening.  Forecasts were usually brief and general.

The storm started in the Pacific Northwest a few days prior and had taken out the Tacoma Narrows Bridge.  By the 10th of  November the system had moved across the Rocky Mountains and redeveloped over Colorado.  Moving into the Midwest blizzards were felt across South Dakota with a devastating ice storm over Nebraska.  Meanwhile very warm air moved into the Mississippi River Valley.

By the time the 11th arrived, folks woke to temperatures in the 50s.  During the day severe weather occurred across the Midwest with a tornado reported in Davenport, IA - 2-3 inches of heavy rain over the Mississippi River Valley and snow in Minnesota and Western Iowa.  By the time the storm had passed over more than 150 lost their lives, a foot of snow had fallen, 20 foot drifts buried cars, trains were stranded and roads were closed for days.

A very nice report was put together by the Quad Cities National Weather Service.  There you will find much more information!

Record High Set Today

A record high was set today at the Rockford Airport! The mercury hit 70 degrees at 3:13pm, beating the old record high of 69 set back in 1930. This marks the second day in a row that we've hit 70 or higher. A cold front will swing through the area tomorrow, but the full thrust of the cold air behind it won't quite make it here and highs will still be in the 60s. Our normal high and low for this date are 48 and 31, respectively.  --TS

35th Anniversary of the Edmund Fitzgerald

On November 10th, 1975 the SS Edmund Fitzgerald sank on Lake Superior, taking all 29 crew members with it.  At that time, it was the worst shipping disaster on the Great Lakes in 11 years! 

You can read more on the history of the Edmund Fitzgerald by clicking here.  Also learn more about the storm system that lead to that fateful day here.

Listen to this rare radio chatter between the Arthur M. Anderson, the vessel that joined the Fitzgerald, and the Coast Guard.  It was the last time anyone ever heard from the Edmund Fitzgerald.  Gives me goose bumps!

Warmth Comes with a Price

Long term indications continue to point at a pattern change ready to take place that would take us through at least the week of Thanksgiving, if not longer.  Looking out over the next couple of weeks it appears that the jetstream will begin to deepen and dig further south allowing much cooler air to settle in over much of the Central U.S.   Remember that our jestream is the driving force for our weather.  So if it moves southward, any future storm tracks will likely take the southern track as well.  While you might be thinking that this isn't such of a bad thing, just remember that any type of gulf moisture that would mix with the cold air would likely lead to snow across the Midwest and Great Lakes.

While I'm not too convinced that by the end of November temperatures will be bitterly cold, after all our average high will have dropped to the upper 30s, highs could possibly fall to that range if not slightly below.

Getting Close to the Record

With almost full sunshine expected once again this afternoon there should be no excuss not to take advantage of this beautiful November day.  Highs Monday afternoon reached the upper 60s to near 70° and I think there is no reason we shouldn't reach that again today, or maybe higher!  Our record high for today is 74° set back in 1999.  Any bets on whether or not we'll get close to that?

Halloween Moon

I know it's a little past due, but I came across this picture from the CIMSS Satellite Blog the other day of the crescent moon on Halloween night caught by GOES-13 (Geostationary Operational Environmental Satellite).  The satellite image shows a band of clouds moving over the Pacific Northwest and British Columbia.  Pretty cool!  It turns out that it's not as rare as one might think for the moon to show up on a GOES image.

Now I have the Dave Matthews Band song "Satellite" stuck in my head! :)

Treats in the November Sky

This week, budding astronomers can take advantage of the mainly clear November sky and spot meteors from the Comet 55P/Tempel-Tuttle. This shower is known as the Leonid meteor shower. It begins November 10th and lasts through November 23rd, with a peak on November 17th. Watch for about 20 meteors per hour with this particular shower, and beware of a full moon getting in the way of viewing on November 21st.

Another, smaller meteor shower is already in progress. The Northern Taurid shower can already be viewed, and will peak on November 13th. This shower can be found by looking for the western Taurus constellation, and produces about five meteors per hour in a dark sky. --TS

November Warmth to be followed by Cooler Weather

How does that old saying go..."All good things must come to an end."  High temperatures through the first half of this week will range roughly 15-20 degrees above average!  This is all thanks to a ridge of high pressure and persistant southerly winds that have found a home across the Great Lakes.  That will, however, be changing as we head towards the latter part of the week as a trough of low pressure currently in the west will settle in across much of the northern tier of the U.S.  The maps on the left are the 6-10 Day Outlooks from the Climate Prediction Center and it shows a vast majority of the country falling to below average temperatures for this upcoming weekend and into next week.  It also looks like we'll be right on the edge of above average precipitation as well.  Looking even further into the following week and it appears these cooler temperatures will last into the third week of November.  So enjoy the warmth while it's here!

The Warm Side of the High....

Sprawling high pressure continues over the southeastern states with a center over Mississippi tonight.  It ridges all the way from Quebec through Ohio, Mississippi and Lousiana, through the western Gulf of Mexico into eastern Mexico.  The east side of the high remnains quite cold.  In fact, it was warmer this afternoon in South Dakota were temperatures were in the middle 70's than it was in Miami, Florida were it was in the 60's for most of the afternoon.  There could be some frost tonight as far south as northen Florida.  Meanwhile, a good southwesterly air flow has developed on the west side of the high from northern Mexico across the Texas panhandle, Oklahoma, Kansas into western Iowa.   Skies will be mostly clear overnight with some high thin cirrus clouds overhead.  Temperatures will drop into the mid to upper 30's across northern Illinois with a light southerly wind.  On Monday high pressure will continue to hold over the southeast, a  ridge of high presure aloft across the midwest will bring sunny skies and unseasonably warm temperatures to the Stateline on a southwesterly breeze 10 to 15 mph.  It will reach the mid 60's when the average for November 8th is 50 degrees.  It could reach the upper 60's to the west of Rockford.  With the southeastern high remaining stubborn, and ridging aloft a dry southwesterly air flow will continue through mid week.    You can never tell this time of year when we will get our last warm spell of the year.  In fact, it is possible the parts of the Stateline could see a 70 degree or higher temperature on Tuesday or Wednesday.  A cold front will edge in from the west and stall out across northwestern Illinois on Thursday.  By Thursday night it will be stationary across the area, and with Gulf moisture finally beginning to feed into the area, there could be some scattered showers developing.  On Friday it will be cooler, and there will be enough instability in place along with the moisture to cause some showers and possibly a thunderstorm or two.  It will get progressively colder through next weekend with a continuing chance of more showers.  By the time Sunday rolls around temperatures will be quite chilly with afternoon highs only in the low 40's.  The following week looks like it will be quite cold.  So, enjoy the warm temperatures and the sunshine of the next few days.

By meteorologist
Eric Nefstead

Nice Warming Trend on the Way!

Cold Canadian high pressure is centered over Tennessee tonight, and ridges from Quebec in eastern Canada southwest across Texas into eastern Mexico.  The ridge will effectively block any return flow of moisture into the midwest for the next several days. A good southwesterly wind flow is developing with the help of a pretty decent pressure gradient on the back side of the high.   Origins of the air will be out of northern Mexico across western Texas for the next couple of days.  This air is very dry, so we can expect lots of sunshine through Tuesday with temps warming to around 60 degrees on Sunday afternoon, into the low to middle 60's on Monday, and into the mid to upper 60's on Tuesday.  A 70 degree reading or better cannot be ruled out for parts of northern Illinois on Tuesday afternoon.  By Wednesday some moisture beginning to feed in from the Gulf will make for more clouds reducing temperatures a few degrees, and with a cool front approaching from the west, there could be some light rain showers.  The front will blow on through the area by early Thursday morning leaving skies partly sunny on Veterans Day.  It will be a little cooler, but not drastically so, with highs in the middle 50's on Thursday.  The front will stall out near the Ohio river on Thursday night and begin moving back toward the north as a warm front on Friday as an area of low pressure develops over Oklahoma.  Showers and some thunderstorms will develop ahead of that system Friday night into Saturday as some Gulf moisture gets involved, but nothing heavy is anticipated at this time.  Cooler air drawn into the system, as it moves across northern Illinois on Saturday, will drop afternoon temperatures back down close to averages for this time of year... around 50 degrees for an afternoon highs.

By the way, don't forget to turn your clocks back 1 hour before you go to bed tonight. Daylight savings time will be over as we go back to standard time.  How will that affect you?  Well, instead of the sun rising at 7: 37 am on Sunday morning, it will rise at 6:37 am, and instead of setting at 5:43 pm Sunday afternoon, it will set at 4:43 pm.  This will take some getting used to.  I guess there is a positive aspect to this.  We will all get an extra hour of sleep tonight!

By meteorologist
Eric Nefstead