Breezy pattern with widespread rain begins Monday

 While a few light showers or areas of drizzle remain possible from time-to-time through Sunday afternoon, that rain will not amount to much. Accumulated rainfall will likely remain under a tenth of an inch for most who see additional rainfall between Saturday night and Sunday.

A more widespread and soaking rain will approach the region with our next weather system beginning Monday. A few light showers will be possible as early as midday, but the higher coverage of rain will arrive later in the day. It will not be raining the entire day, but the afternoon to evening will feature higher chances and intensity of showers.

Rain will be more widespread Monday night through Tuesday, with some embedded heavier rain and possibly even a few rumbles of thunder. This system will not be conducive of severe weather locally, however. Rain may not exit until Wednesday, when a cold front works to clear out more of the abundant moisture.

As this strong low pressure pushes through, it will also bring a period of stronger winds with it. Wind gusts could approach 20-35 mph at times early next week. Winds will start from the Southeast on Monday, then from a more South and Southwest direction Tuesday and Wednesday. This will also work to keep us on a milder note, with afternoon highs in the mid to upper 60s.

Halloween forecast: Not overly chilly, but scattered showers likely

 Many trick-or-treaters are hoping for a less spooky forecast, but it also could be much worse! This Halloween weekend will feature slightly warmer than average temperatures along with subtle rain chances from time to time. Both Saturday and Sunday will see afternoon highs in the low to mid-60s, while overnight lows will only fall to the lower 50s.

The initial push of rain will arrive early Saturday morning but will linger well into the afternoon. Rain probably will not come down very hard, but it will be enough to be annoying for anyone spending more than a few minutes outdoors. There may be a few pockets of steadier showers, but nothing anywhere close to a downpour.

The coverage of rain will gradually decrease through the evening, but won't quite dry out across the entire area until later in the night. Even 7-8PM may still have a few pockets of lighter showers from time to time, but most of the area will be drying out not long after.

Temperatures may not be quite as cool as the model pictured above would suggest, though. Most areas will remain in the mid-50s through 8-9PM, but a few showers may still be lingering. Trick-or-treaters should have the umbrella handy but may not quite need to attach it to the costumes! Sunday may also feature a few showers from time to time, but even less coverage and intensity compared to Saturday.

Cooler air settles in, Halloween showers fade through the day

Cooler Friday:

The fall-like chill is back across northern Illinois and southern Wisconsin, with temperatures running 15 to 25 degrees cooler than the unseasonable warmth we experienced earlier this week. Temperatures this morning have dipped into the upper 30s, giving the area a more fall-like feel. 

 

As the day goes on, cloud cover will continue to build across the area. That, along with a light northeasterly wind will keep the cooler air locked in place for the end of the work week, limiting afternoon highs to the upper 50s, close to 60°. Along with the cloud cover, a few afternoon sprinkles are possible. 

 

 

Halloween Climate:

Halloween has a habit of delivering just about every type of weather for Rockford. While this year's warm up won't be as substantial as the warmth we saw earlier in the week, temperatures remain far from the coldest Halloween on record. 

The warmest Halloween was a summer-like 84° back in 1950, while the coldest was 32° back in 1917. Halloween as also seen its share of wet weather, with the rainiest occurring in 1919 when 2.51" fell at the airport. And if you recall, it didn't take much in 2019 for Rockford to see its snowiest Halloween on record when 3.1" of snow fell and blanketed the area.   

Halloween Weekend:

Halloween this year will feature a few weather concerns, but it appears the steadiest rain will occur during the morning hours. As we head through the afternoon, rain chances are expected to gradually diminish, although a few lingering sprinkles cannot be ruled out as trick-or-treaters head door-to-door Saturday evening. While widespread rainfall is not anticipated, it may still be a good idea to keep the umbrella nearby just in case.
 

October so far: Above average for the month

 

Following near record warmth Wednesday afternoon Thursday hasn't been quite as warm, but temperatures have remained above average - despite a cold front coming through earlier in the morning.

The day started off with cloud cover and a few light showers but those were quick to move out with sun-filled skies for the rest of the afternoon. This helped to warm temperatures into the mid and upper 60s area wide, with Rockford's high reaching 68 degrees. And here's a little fun fact for you - the low temperature Thursday morning was the same as what the average high temperature should be for the 29th of October! That is 56 degrees. Now, Friday may see some 50s thanks to the quick return of cloud cover in the morning and a brisk northeast breeze. But we look to warm right back up into the weekend and next week.

Looking back over the month of October our average temperature to date is 58.3 degrees. That is almost six degrees above the monthly average (to date) and places this October, so far, as the 7th warmest month-to-date on record. Just within the last week and a half temperatures have been well above average, some nearly 15-20 degrees!

October usually doesn't average a lot of precipitation with 2.63 inches being recorded for the month. So far this month we've added up 1.92 inches which places us at a 0.55-inch deficit. We'll make up for some of that late Friday into Saturday with the next chance for rainfall, but likely not enough to keep us out of at least a little bit of a precipitation deficit to end the month.

Trick or treat forecast: More clouds, a few showers

Halloween Weekend:

A weak area of low pressure lingering nearby will make for a much cloudier Halloween weekend across northern Illinois and southern Wisconsin. 

While much of the time will be dry, enough moisture wrapping around the storm system could spark a few scattered showers from time to time, mainly during the early-morning hours and then again late in the afternoon into the evening. 

 

Rainfall amounts look like, and widespread washouts are not expected. but it may be enough that someone in your trick-or treat group will want to keep an umbrella on hand to be safe. 

Temperatures remain seasonably mild, but cooler than recent times in the low 60s for Saturday, then upper 60s for Sunday. This system will keep the cloud cover in place for Sunday while also keeping a slim chance for a shower or two.
  
 

Scattered showers return following near record warmth Wednesday

 Temperatures Wednesday afternoon warmed into the low to mid 70s area wide, with Rockford's high just one degree shy of reaching the record. The record high for the 28th of October sits at 77 degrees set back in 1950, which still stands after today.

Skies will remain mostly clear through the early evening but a gradual increase in cloud cover can be expected through late evening as a cold front moves in from the west. Thunderstorms have quickly developed along the front from Iowa through Minnesota, with severe thunderstorms around Minneapolis, MN. Any threat for severe weather will remain well to our northwest through the evening.

Breezy southerly winds will help keep temperatures in the 60s for most of the night, dropping only into the upper 50s around sunrise Thursday. As the cold front moves close to northern Illinois and southern Wisconsin, we'll see an uptick in cloud cover and eventually a few widely scattered showers move in during the overnight. A few of those showers may develop as early as 8pm across far northwest Illinois, but most likely we'll see the rain move in after Midnight. While there will be an increase in moisture along and ahead of the front during the night, the highest forcing remains to our north resulting in limited instability locally. This will limit our overall thunderstorm chances, but an isolated rumble or two can't entirely be ruled out. Rainfall amounts will also remain light with most areas under a quarter of an inch.

The cold front will move across northern Illinois Thursday morning with skies quickly clearing for the afternoon. There won't be much of a temperature climb during the afternoon with the front coming through, but highs should be able to climb back into the upper 60s. High pressure to the north will settle in across the Great Lakes Thursday night which will allow temperatures to drop back into the upper 30s Friday morning. Clouds will move back in by Friday afternoon with temperatures holding steady in the low 60s.

 

Dry October continues as northern Illinois sees near-record warmth

Dry October:

October has been living up to its reputation as a dry fall month across the region. In fact, Rockford hasn't seen any measurable rainfall in the past 12 days, and the last time we picked up an inch or more was way back on October 1st. While the extended stretch of mild weather has been rather enjoyable, it has also allowed dry conditions to take hold. While dry and unseasonably mild conditions remain in place, rain chances will begin to slowly creep back into the forecast tonight as our next storm system glides into the Great Lakes. 

Near-Record Warmth:

When we say "unseasonably mild", we're talking about temperatures that will approach record territory for late October. With sunshine returning and a warm, organized southerly wind in place, afternoon highs will climb into the low, possibly mid 70s. Similar to Sunday, we'll come up just shy of our record high of 77 degrees, set back in 1950. Still, temperatures will run 10 to 15 degree above average. 

Rain Chances Return:

While we sit under sunny skies and near-record warmth here in the Stateline, severe weather will be making headlines farther northwest. Near the Minneapolis metro area, the Storm Prediction Center has outlined a level 2 of 5 Slight Risk for scattered strong to severe storms this afternoon. With warm, humid air surging north ahead of an approaching cold front, a few storms could produce damaging winds, large hail, and even a few tornadoes.

Most of the heavy rain and thunderstorm activity will remain north of the Stateline overnight. However, a few scattered showers cannot be ruled out after midnight and into the Thursday morning commute as a cold front approaches and prepares to move through the region. Rainfall amounts look light, with most locales staying under a tenth of an inch. Clouds should clear out as the morning progresses once the cold front is south of I-80.