Not only was it an active day across the state line with severe weather but this whole week we've certainly experienced our fair share of severe weather! Although our chances for severe weather were not as high as Tuesday, we still seen our fair share of reports. The most prominent of these reports being multiple funnel clouds from multiple storms as a few were able to weakly rotate, thankfully though none of these reached the ground.
As we turn the page to today this will be the first time in almost 4 days that we won't be under any sort of threat for severe weather! Not only that but it'll be a gorgeous day overall with temperatures in the upper 60's and low 70's with sunshine peeking out later this afternoon.
We are right in the heart of spring after all, so you know dry days don't come around too much this time of year. Unfortunately, tomorrow the chances of storms as well as severe storms will return tomorrow as our next system approaches. As of now, the Storm Prediction Center has outlined areas west of I-39 in an Enhanced (Level 3/5) risk with areas east under as Slight (Level 2/5) risk for the possibility of severe thunderstorms. Very similarly to Tuesday, thunderstorms are expected to our west in Iowa and will move through the state line into the late afternoon and early evening.
As of now, chances for storms may move in slightly earlier than Tuesday closer to 3-7 p.m. We'll have to watch how storms evolve over time as depending on how clustered they become it will affect our overall severe threat. As of now, damaging winds and large hail look to be our main threats, however an isolated tornado or two cannot be ruled out as well.
The viewing area is currently severe thunderstorm and tornado warning free as the severe threat has decreased quite a bit locally. However, FLASH FLOOD WARNINGS remain in effect for Stephenson, Winnebago, Boone, Jo Daviess, Carroll, Green and Rock counties until either late Wednesday night or early Thursday morning. This is following not only the heavy rainfall many experienced Tuesday night, but the additional rainfall we received tonight.
Thankfully, the thunderstorms tonight are a little more progressive than the storms Tuesday but steady to heavy rain will continue for the next couple of hours, impacting areas that have already experienced a significant amount of rainfall.
Scattered showers will continue through early Thursday before drying out by mid to late morning. We get a break from the active weather Thursday, but it is set to return Friday afternoon and evening ahead of an even stronger cold front that'll finally bring an end to our very rainy and stormy pattern.
Yesterday's severe weather primarily left behind reports of hail across the region. There is also a possibility that a tornado occurred near Pearl City, though we'll need to wait for the National Weather Service to complete their storm survey before we know for sure what occurred.
More Severe Potential:
We're not out of the woods just yet. Another round of severe weather potential arrives today as a weak low pressure system slides across Iowa.
The Storm Prediction Center maintained a level 2 Slight Risk for the entire area.
Fortunately, a few of the main ingredients for severe weather (Shear, Lift, Instability, and Moisture) won't be as plentiful as Tuesday. However, strong straight-line winds and large hail will be the primary concerns with any severe storm between 4PM and 10PM, followed by an isolated tornado.
Brief Break:
Any chance for rain should come to a close during the early stage of Thursday morning. In fact, Thursday gives us a nice but brief break from the active weather pattern as skies will gradually clear. This will leave us partly cloudy with highs in the low 70s.
We're starting our Tuesday with a few thunderstorms, stretching from Janesville to Dixon. While these will pass through the region under severe limits, frequent lightning and heavy rain will be likely.
Tuesday's Severe:
Looking ahead, conditions should stray fairly quiet but breezy as we head into the afternoon. This largely due to a "cap" developing just above the surface once the morning storms depart. This "cap" - along with any leftover boundaries from this morning's activity - will play a key role into the timing and placement of the thunderstorm threat that is scheduled for the late afternoon and early evening hours.
The Storm Prediction Center has maintained a level 3 of 5 Enhanced Risk for the entire area. Once storms develop and push in from eastern Iowa, all severe weather hazards - including a few tornadoes - will be possible between 4-10PM. Any storm that remains isolated in nature with have a big-time tornado and large hail threat. As time progresses, these storms would then merge into more of a cluster of
storms, shifting from the large hail threat to more
of a strong wind and isolated tornado threat.
Be sure to monitor the weather throughout the day.And then throughout the afternoon both Meteorologist Candice King and Meteorologist Jordan
Wolfe will be in keeping a close eye on radar and providing updates.
Both myself and Meteorologist Owen Szarley will be out in the field
keeping an eye on the skies. Review your severe storm safety plan at
home, or if you're going to be out - know where to go should a warning
be issued. But know that myself, Meteorologist Candice King,
Meteorologist Jordan Wolfe and Meteorologist Owen Szarley will have you
covered!
Wednesday's Threat:
Believe it or not, we're not completely out of the woods once today's activity winds down. We'll be watching Wednesday's setup as well. Thankfully, the atmosphere won't be quite as vigorous or volatile as there will be more scattered rain involved. However, the Storm Prediction Center has maintained a level 2 of 5 Slight Risk with winds and hail being the main concerns, followed by an isolated tornado.
We are definitely settling into a more active pattern this week (very typical for April in northern Illinois) with many opportunities for thunderstorms. There were a few non-severe storms that moved across northern Illinois earlier Monday afternoon, but those have since moved on leaving our skies partly sunny. Temperatures have warmed through the 70s and with dew points in the 60s, it's a bit sticky outside. The continued feed of higher moisture will leave us with a muggy feel these next few days.
The radar is pretty quiet locally with only an isolated storm or two possible for the rest of the evening. Further north in Wisconsin and Minnesota ongoing severe weather continues with numerous severe thunderstorm warnings in place. This activity will remain to our north through the late evening, sinking south after Midnight. It's likely that these storms will hold together enough to impact at least some of southern Wisconsin and northern Illinois in the early morning hours of Tuesday. If we do see them hold together, they would pose a local wind and hail threat, along with some heavier rain. That window would be from roughly 1am/2am through 6am.
Now let's talk about Tuesday as this has been the day for us locally that we've been watching closely, but as the old saying goes, "The devil is in the details". The storms that come through late Monday night are likely going to lay out some sort of outflow boundary that'll probably end up to our south in the morning. The warm front currently to our north will also slip south, but most likely stay just north of the Wisconsin/Illinois state line. Following the precipitation in the morning we should see at least some recovery into the afternoon with regards to both sunshine and temperatures and this will probably develop some sort of cap, or lid, on our atmosphere during the afternoon.
A wave of energy moving in from the west and southwest will be the 'firing' mechanism for thunderstorm development - most likely in eastern Iowa and along the warm front in southern Wisconsin by late afternoon. Should these storms develop, they would most likely be supercell in nature (individual thunderstorms) capable of large hail and isolated tornadoes. Through time, those storms would then merge into more of a cluster of storms, or line of storms, shifting from the large hail threat to more of a wind and isolated tornado threat through the evening.
I think our window to pay attention to the radar will be from about 3pm/4pm to 10pm. Northern Illinois and southern Wisconsin are in an 'enhanced risk' which is a level 3 out of 5 risk for severe storms.
So, what do we need to make sure we are doing going into Tuesday? Be sure to monitor the weather throughout the day. Easier said than done in our busy lives, but before heading out the door in the morning check in with Meteorologist Joey Marino.
He will have the latest information on any impacts the storms early Tuesday morning could have on our environment for later in the afternoon and evening. And then throughout the afternoon both myself and Meteorologist Jordan Wolfe will be in keeping a close eye on radar and providing updates. Both Joey and Meteorologist Owen Szarley will be out in the field keeping an eye on the skies. Review your severe storm safety plan at home, or if you're going to be out - know where to go should a warning be issued. But know that myself, Meteorologist Joey Marino, Meteorologist Jordan Wolfe and Meteorologist Owen Szarley will have you covered!
Severe weather potential today remains rather low and isolated, largely due to a the capped atmosphere across the Stateline region.
This is a layer of warm up that
develops a few thousand feet above the surface that acts as a "lid" on
the atmosphere, preventing storm development. Normally, you want
temperatures to cool the further up you go into the atmosphere.
But with
a warm layer sitting overhead, storms can't bubble up and become mature
or severe. That is why the better environment will be focused along the incoming surface low and the associated warm front up in the southern Minnesota and central Wisconsin. If anything were to bubble up this afternoon and evening, the main concerns would be hail, gusty winds and heavy rainfall.
Tuesday:
Monday night's storms will play a primary role into Tuesday's potential as they will likely produce an outflow boundary which will track south towards our area by Tuesday morning.
That boundary might be
the primary initiating point for storms Tuesday afternoon. Once those
storms develop, the environment Tuesday will be particularly volatile
for severe weather. With higher instability and much less of a cap, all
hazards of severe weather will be possible Tuesday, including a threat
for tornadoes. The main timing for storms will be after 4-5PM. The Storm
Prediction Center has highlighted a large area where severe weather may
be a bit more numerous, including the entire Stateline under a Level 3 of 5 Enchained Risk.
Wednesday:
This multi-day stretch of severe potential continues into Wednesday, though the overall setup won't be as volatile as what we're watching for Tuesday. Storm fuel looks lower, especially if we do end up seeing a batch of showers push through during the midday and early afternoon hours. For now, most of the area sits under a level 2 of 5 Slight Risk with damaging winds and hail being the primary concerns.
Severe Weather Recap:
Monday: A "cap" will keep a"lid"on the atmosphere for much of the day. Any thunderstorm that does break the cap will be capable of producing large hail, winds, and heavy rainfall.
Tuesday: Storm coverage will be more scattered and numerous with all hazard on the table. Mainly during the late afternoon and early evening.
Wednesday: Showers will be more widespread, lowering storm fuel in the atmosphere. A few stronger storms will be possible with hail and wind being the main concerns.
Late-Week Threat:
Friday is also a day that we've been monitoring. But with recent trends, it seems the Storm Prediction Center has left the best potential for strong to severe storms for areas west of the Mississippi River. Still, I would keep an eye on this as the forecast will likely change within the coming days.
Portions of the Stateline may be in line for multiple rounds of severe weather over the week ahead, including three days right in a row Monday through Wednesday. Each round will come with its own unique set of ingredients and circumstances.
Monday looks to be primarily dry through the daytime as we will remain capped, limiting storm potential initially. An isolated storm may remain possible, but the main wave will be during the late evening and mostly North of the area. Tuesday will bring the strongest potential for severe weather locally, as a volatile environment will be capable of producing all hazards of severe weather, particularly in the evening. Wednesday will bring more widespread coverage of rain with a few storms. Severe risk will remain, but not quite to the extent of Tuesday.
Now let's look at the timing of these storms. Monday will start on a dry note, with temperatures climbing back into the mid and upper 70s. A warm layer above the surface will keep a cap, or a lid on the atmosphere despite high levels of instability developing. There is a low (20%) chance to see a very isolated storm break through that cap during the afternoon, but a dry forecast is currently favored. If a storm develops, it may be capable of producing large hail and damaging wind gusts as the primary threat.
Better forcing will develop storms later in the evening. That forcing is centered across Southern Minnesota to Northern Wisconsin, where it appears likely a complex of storms will develop along and behind a warm front. There is a slim chance one of those storms tracks this far South, but that would be another isolated chance.
The best coverage of severe weather will remain mainly to the North with that late evening/nighttime window. That is where the Storm Prediction Center has highlighted areas under a Level 3/5 Enhanced risk, while the Level 2/5 Slight risk extends down into far Northern Illinois for the isolated to scattered coverage of storms expected here. Again, any storms that develop locally may produce a wind and hail threat. The highest tornado risk is North toward the Enhanced risk.
Monday night's storms will likely produce an outflow boundary which will settle South toward our area by Tuesday morning. That boundary might be the primary initiating point for storms Tuesday afternoon. Once those storms develop, the environment Tuesday will be particularly volatile for severe weather. With higher instability and much less of a cap, all hazards of severe weather will be possible Tuesday, including a threat for tornadoes. The main timing for storms will be after 3-4PM. The Storm Prediction Center has highlighted a large area where severe weather may be possible Tuesday, including the entire Stateline under a Level 2/5 Slight risk.
Another risk for severe weather may be possible Wednesday, but this potential looks a little messier than Tuesday. Widespread rain may wash out some of the environment, preventing some of the extreme levels of instability. That said, scattered damaging wind gusts and hail remain possible. SPC's outlook highlights the Stateline for a 15% risk, which is equivalent to another Level 2/5 Slight risk.
While there will be lots of dry time between each wave, we will still need to watch very closely for severe weather on each of these days. Tuesday in particular has the highest potential locally. Stay tuned for further updates throughout the week!
