Few storms possible this afternoon, low severe threat

Temperatures have been on the up and up, peaking in the upper 60s Monday afternoon. With Monday's 60° weather however came a rather robust southwesterly wind, gusting up to 35 mph at times. 

It's because of this warm wind that temperatures are starting out much more comfortable this morning, with most sitting in the low to mid 50s.

Winds remain gusty out of the southwest as our next cold front approaches from the west. This will allow highs to creep closer to the 70° mark. Unlike Monday however, this potent cold front will also generate enough lift in our atmosphere for a few showers and thunderstorms to develop. 
   

This would be during the mid to late afternoon hours, with severe potential remaining low. With that being said, one or two of these storms could become strong enough to become severe warned. 

If that were to be the case, strong winds and large hail would be the biggest concerns. The Storm Prediction Center does have areas east of Janesville, Freeport, Mount Morris, and Amboy under a level 1 Marginal Risk for severe weather. 

Post-cold front, our weather pattern briefly cools down for the middle of the work week. Temperatures overnight will fall into the low 30s, only peaking in the low 50s Wednesday afternoon. 

Despite the cooler trend in temperatures, Wednesday remains dry under partly cloudy skies! This dry stretch will carry on into Thursday, with highs ending up back in the low 60s! 

Clouds thicken Monday ahead of a light rain showers Monday evening

 

Cloud cover will continue to thicken up Monday evening ahead of a cold front that'll pass through the region Tuesday morning. A few showers have been developing on radar but the dry air mass at the surface has prevented a lot of the rain from actually reaching the ground. Nonetheless, a shower or two can't be ruled out around 8pm/9pm.

Increasing winds in the jet stream Tuesday morning will allow a few showers to occur, but mostly for those south of I-88. A quick push of dry air Tuesday afternoon will allow skies to clear and temperatures to warm into the upper 60s. This warmth combined with colder temperatures aloft will cause the air to rapidly rise from the surface. This quick rising air will help increase some of the instability in the atmosphere, despite dew point temperatures only in the upper 40s, to right around 50 degrees.

A few isolated thunderstorms will be possible during the afternoon and early evening, with the greatest chance lining up from around McHenry County, down through DeKalb, Ogle, and Lee counties. Within the stronger thunderstorms hail up to quarter size (one inch in diameter) will be possible. There is also a small chance that we may see some funnel clouds develop, especially for any storm that forms right along the surface boundary. The chance for that is low, but it's there.

Once the storm threat passes skies will turn partly cloudy as high pressure moves across the eastern Great Lakes. Temperatures Tuesday night will fall into the low to mid 30s. Winds will remain slightly elevated which should prevent frost from developing, but patchy frost may be possible for some early Wednesday. A better chance for frost will occur Wednesday night and Thursday morning.

  

Frost Advisory in place early, windy and warm Earth Day ahead

It's another chilly late-April morning for many as frost advisories stretch from the Oklahoma/Arkansas border to Cape Cod, Massachusetts.

The portion that includes all of our northern Illinois counties runs until 8AM. 

With Monday's forecast comes a mixed bag of news, including an increasing southwest wind, increasing clouds, and a quick warm up. 

The best chance for sunshine will be during the morning hours as clouds are expected to gather up after the mid-day hours. This, along with a rather robust southwesterly wind will help temperatures warm nicely into the upper 60s. 

Forecast models then show the first of two early-week opportunities for rain moving in tonight, primarily between sunset and midnight. 

This will be in the form of a few light showers, with most of the precipitation staying north of the Illinois/ Wisconsin border. The second comes with a cold front which looks to slide through the region late in the afternoon Tuesday. 

Tuesday's chance will have a bit more "ummph" to it, allowing a few non-severe storms to be possible. All in all, the heaviest rain looks to occur well south of the region in central Illinois. 

We then cool off for the middle of the week as highs go from the upper 60s to the low 50s. This cool down is brief as highs look to climb back into the 60s starting Thursday, then 70s starting Saturday. With this massive warm up comes an active stretch of weather that will bring the chance for storms Friday, Saturday, and Sunday. 

In the Storm Prediction Center's latest long-range severe outlook, they have taken the entire Stateline out of the 15% risk. Areas west of the Mississippi River remain under what is equivalent to a level 2 slight risk for severe weather.

Changes are expected in the coming days, so make sure to check the forecast frequently!

Frosty start Sunday morning; Plenty of sunshine Sunday afternoon

 

Skies were able to clear Saturday night following a windy and cloudy afternoon. Afternoon temperatures only warmed into the low 40s, nearly 20 degrees below our average high!

Quite the opposite will hold true for Sunday afternoon as skies are expected to remain mostly sunny with temperatures reaching the upper 50s. Still a few degrees below average, but warmer than Saturday.

Northwest winds will increase throughout the day gusting 20-25 mph, easing once again Sunday night. Patchy frost will be possible, but a slightly warmer air mass will move in as winds turn to the southwest Sunday night. This will hold temperatures in the low to mid 30s.

Southwest winds will increase Monday, gusting to 30 mph late into the afternoon. This will help bring temperatures into the mid-60s, but also increase the fire risk during the day due to low relative humidity values. Cloud cover will increase Monday evening ahead of a warm front that'll bring a few scattered showers overnight Monday, into Tuesday morning. 

Those showers will pass to the east Tuesday morning with skies turning partly cloudy by the afternoon. West winds will increase bringing temperatures into the upper 60s. A cold front will arrive late Tuesday afternoon, shifting winds back around to the north but also giving us a chance for a few isolated thunderstorms for the afternoon. Severe weather isn't expected but a few of the stronger storms will be capable of small hail and gusty winds. Skies will dry out Tuesday night with highs briefly falling back into the low 50s Wednesday.

   

Freeze warning in effect for some, frost likely Sunday morning

Saturday begins with the first of many chances for the Stateline to see frost. 

A FREEZE warning is currently in place for Carroll, Jo-Daviess, Stephenson, and Whiteside County in N. Illinois as well as Green County in S. Wisconsin until 8AM this morning. 

 

 

Today also begins with plenty of sun, with clouds building in for the afternoon. This, along with a chilly breeze out of the northwest will limit afternoon highs to the upper 40s. Though winds won't be as strong as they were yesterday, gusts up to 25-30 mph will be possible throughout the day. 

Expect clouds and surface winds to decrease into the overnight hours, allowing temperatures to land at or below the freezing mark of 32°. This will allow the likelihood for frost Sunday morning. Again, if you planted any sensitive vegetation early, cover them or bring them inside before you head to bed!

Sunday will be the more enjoyable day of the weekend as clouds won't be an issue. Temperatures will be noticeably warmer in the upper 50s. Frost will once again be a possibility Sunday night as lows dip back into the mid to upper 30s. The limiting factor, a light wind out of the west-southwest! 

Afternoon highs will continue to climb into early next week as winds remain out of the southwest. This will bring highs back into the low 60s Monday.

Frosty mornings expected across northern Illinois this weekend

Frost advisories and freeze warnings are in effect this morning across the Midwest, none of which contain counties here in the Stateline.

Temperatures are a tad too warm for frost to develop as most are starting out their day in the upper 30s. However, I do think with how overnight lows are trending for the weekend that we'll be seeing our fair share of frost and freeze alerts. 

The big headline today, gusty winds. Westerly winds will steadily increase after sunrise, gusting up to 35 to 40 mph at times this afternoon. 

Despite plenty of sunshine, today's wind will limit high temperatures to the mid to upper 50s. Winds will ease after sunset but remain breezy for the overnight hours. This is the main reason why we won't get in on widespread frost Saturday morning. 

Sunshine continues into the weekend. However, tomorrow will feature a northwesterly breeze, with  gusts up to 20-25 mph. This will further cool our afternoon highs, landing most in the low 50s. 

Winds lighten up into Saturday night. This will allow radiational cooling to be more effective, landing temperatures near the freezing mark (32°) by Sunday morning. Long story short, widespread frost will be likely. Frost will also be likely Monday morning as conditions remain quiet into early next week.

Shower chances continue into Thursday, severe weather unlikely

Multiple rounds of severe storms were quick to form across the Midwest, but took their sweet time to cross the Mississippi into the Stateline.

Once they did, the tornado threat lessened, leaving damaging winds as the biggest concern. All in all, Tuesday's severe weather event accounted for 17 tornado reports (mainly in Iowa), 69 damaging wind reports, and 35 large hail reports.

Thankfully, severe weather is not on the table today as this storm system continues to slowly spiral to the north and east of the region. 

Portions of the Midwest and the Ohio Valley/lower Great Lakes have the best chance for strong to severe storms. But that doesn't mean we escape the clouds and the chance for a few lingering showers.

Shower chances will be best before midday, through the chance for a spotty shower or two will linger into the mid-afternoon hours. That, along with a rather gusty wind (up to 40 mph) out of the west will keep temperatures steady in the mid 60s. 

Cloud cover and winds will decrease this evening, leaving us with quiet conditions into Thursday. But as quick as the clouds were to leave, we can expect them to gather up quickly tomorrow morning as our next system slides in from the west. 

Thursday is going to be the day where you'll have to have the umbrella with you from start to finish. Rain will move through in a scattered fashion, leaving behind .10" to .25" for most. 

From Friday on, we'll see less rain chances and more opportunities for sunshine. High temperatures do cool into the low 50s Saturday before climbing back into the low 60s for early next week.