Another round of severe storms possible Friday afternoon

Friday's Severe Potential:

It's been a very active week across the Stateline, with our weather pattern delivering multiple rounds of rain and bouts of severe weather. 

Before conditions finally settle down, we have one more opportunity for what could be significant severe weather. In their latest outlook, the Storm Prediction Center has placed nearly the entire Stateline, with the exception of a small sliver of Walworth County in Wisconsin, under a level 3 of 5 Enhanced Risk. 

The Bottom Line:

Looking at storm timing, initial development could begin as early the early afternoon, mainly across areas in eastern Iowa and southwest Wisconsin. Storms will shift east, pushing through northern Illinois and southern Wisconsin between 3PM-9PM. 

Storm mode will be a key factor to monitor as these strong storms roll in from the west. If storms remain isolated in nature, they would be capable of producing a higher tornado risk given stronger, most focused and healthy rotation. However, if storms this afternoon quickly line up and turn linear, the primary severe threat would shift towards damaging straight-line winds. Also in that scenario would be the risk for quick-hitting Q.L.C.S (quasi-linear convective system) tornadoes. These tend to develop rather quickly, producing damage in the EF-0 to EF-2 range. 

Mystateline+ App: 

Again, it's important to have multiple days to receive severe alerts on days like today. Cell phone, NOAA weather radios are great sources. But now you can download the Mystateline + app for the latest when it comes to First Warn severe coverage! 

Throughout the afternoon both Meteorologist Candice King and Meteorologist Jordan Wolfe will be providing in-studio updates. Both myself and Meteorologist Owen Szarley will be out in the field keeping an eye on the skies. Review your severe storm safety plan at home, or if you're going to be out - know where to go should a warning be issued. But know that myself, Meteorologist Candice King, Meteorologist Jordan Wolfe and Meteorologist Owen Szarley will have you covered!   

Areas of dense fog possible Thursday night

 

We have had a much-deserved break from the active thunderstorms from the last few days, but unfortunately that break is going to be short-lived. More on that coming up in the next post.

It was a bit of a cloudy and damp start to the morning Thursday but with the push of some dry air by the afternoon skies were able to turn partly cloudy as temperatures warmed back into the low 70s. Skies will remain mostly clear through sunset but fog moving in from the east, off of Lake Michigan, will slowly push west through the late evening and overnight hours. This will eventually lead to some fog in the local viewing area, with dense fog possible east of I-39.

Be aware of the possibility of quickly changing visibility during the morning commute Friday, especially if you're traveling east. The fog shouldn't last too long after sunrise as southerly winds start to increase by mid-morning.

Sunshine and calm conditions Thursday, severe storms return Friday

 

Not only was it an active day across the state line with severe weather but this whole week we've certainly experienced our fair share of severe weather! Although our chances for severe weather were not as high as Tuesday, we still seen our fair share of reports. The most prominent of these reports being multiple funnel clouds from multiple storms as a few were able to weakly rotate, thankfully though none of these reached the ground.

As we turn the page to today this will be the first time in almost 4 days that we won't be under any sort of threat for severe weather! Not only that but it'll be a gorgeous day overall with temperatures in the upper 60's and low 70's with sunshine peeking out later this afternoon.

We are right in the heart of spring after all, so you know dry days don't come around too much this time of year. Unfortunately, tomorrow the chances of storms as well as severe storms will return tomorrow as our next system approaches. As of now, the Storm Prediction Center has outlined areas west of I-39 in an Enhanced (Level 3/5) risk with areas east under as Slight (Level 2/5) risk for the possibility of severe thunderstorms. Very similarly to Tuesday, thunderstorms are expected to our west in Iowa and will move through the state line into the late afternoon and early evening.

As of now, chances for storms may move in slightly earlier than Tuesday closer to 3-7 p.m. We'll have to watch how storms evolve over time as depending on how clustered they become it will affect our overall severe threat. As of now, damaging winds and large hail look to be our main threats, however an isolated tornado or two cannot be ruled out as well.

 

Severe threat ending across northern Illinois, Scattered showers and thunderstorms will continue

 

The viewing area is currently severe thunderstorm and tornado warning free as the severe threat has decreased quite a bit locally. However, FLASH FLOOD WARNINGS remain in effect for Stephenson, Winnebago, Boone, Jo Daviess, Carroll, Green and Rock counties until either late Wednesday night or early Thursday morning. This is following not only the heavy rainfall many experienced Tuesday night, but the additional rainfall we received tonight.

Thankfully, the thunderstorms tonight are a little more progressive than the storms Tuesday but steady to heavy rain will continue for the next couple of hours, impacting areas that have already experienced a significant amount of rainfall.

Scattered showers will continue through early Thursday before drying out by mid to late morning. We get a break from the active weather Thursday, but it is set to return Friday afternoon and evening ahead of an even stronger cold front that'll finally bring an end to our very rainy and stormy pattern. 

Another round of severe storms possible across northern Illinois

Storm Reports:

Yesterday's severe weather primarily left behind reports of hail across the region. There is also a possibility that a tornado occurred near Pearl City, though we'll need to wait for the National Weather Service to complete their storm survey before we know for sure what occurred. 

  

More Severe Potential:

We're not out of the woods just yet. Another round of severe weather potential arrives today as a weak low pressure system slides across Iowa. 

The Storm Prediction Center maintained a level 2 Slight Risk for the entire area. 

Fortunately, a few of the main ingredients for severe weather (Shear, Lift, Instability, and Moisture) won't be as plentiful as Tuesday. However, strong straight-line winds and large hail will be the primary concerns with any severe storm between 4PM and 10PM, followed by an isolated tornado. 

   

Brief Break:

Any chance for rain should come to a close during the early stage of Thursday morning. In fact, Thursday gives us a nice but brief break from the active weather pattern as skies will gradually clear. This will leave us partly cloudy with highs in the low 70s.  
 
 

All severe hazards possible this evening across northern Illinois

Morning Storms:

We're starting our Tuesday with a few thunderstorms, stretching from Janesville to Dixon. While these will pass through the region under severe limits, frequent lightning and heavy rain will be likely.   

 

  

Tuesday's Severe:

Looking ahead, conditions should stray fairly quiet but breezy as we head into the afternoon. This largely due to a "cap" developing just above the surface once the morning storms depart. This "cap" - along with any leftover boundaries from this morning's activity - will play a key role into the timing and placement of the thunderstorm threat that is scheduled for the late afternoon and early evening hours. 

The Storm Prediction Center has maintained a level 3 of 5 Enhanced Risk for the entire area. Once storms develop and push in from eastern Iowa, all severe weather hazards - including a few tornadoes - will be possible between 4-10PM. Any storm that remains isolated in nature with have a big-time tornado and large hail threat. As time progresses, these storms would then merge into more of a cluster of storms, shifting from the large hail threat to more of a strong wind and isolated tornado threat.

Be sure to monitor the weather throughout the day.And then throughout the afternoon both Meteorologist Candice King and Meteorologist Jordan Wolfe will be in keeping a close eye on radar and providing updates. Both myself and Meteorologist Owen Szarley will be out in the field keeping an eye on the skies. Review your severe storm safety plan at home, or if you're going to be out - know where to go should a warning be issued. But know that myself, Meteorologist Candice King, Meteorologist Jordan Wolfe and Meteorologist Owen Szarley will have you covered!  

Wednesday's Threat:

Believe it or not, we're not completely out of the woods once today's activity winds down. We'll be watching Wednesday's setup as well. Thankfully, the atmosphere won't be quite as vigorous or volatile as there will be more scattered rain involved. However, the Storm Prediction Center has maintained a level 2 of 5 Slight Risk with winds and hail being the main concerns, followed by an isolated tornado. 

ACTIVE PATTERN AHEAD: What it means for our storm chances these next few days

 

We are definitely settling into a more active pattern this week (very typical for April in northern Illinois) with many opportunities for thunderstorms. There were a few non-severe storms that moved across northern Illinois earlier Monday afternoon, but those have since moved on leaving our skies partly sunny. Temperatures have warmed through the 70s and with dew points in the 60s, it's a bit sticky outside. The continued feed of higher moisture will leave us with a muggy feel these next few days.

The radar is pretty quiet locally with only an isolated storm or two possible for the rest of the evening. Further north in Wisconsin and Minnesota ongoing severe weather continues with numerous severe thunderstorm warnings in place. This activity will remain to our north through the late evening, sinking south after Midnight. It's likely that these storms will hold together enough to impact at least some of southern Wisconsin and northern Illinois in the early morning hours of Tuesday. If we do see them hold together, they would pose a local wind and hail threat, along with some heavier rain. That window would be from roughly 1am/2am through 6am.

Now let's talk about Tuesday as this has been the day for us locally that we've been watching closely, but as the old saying goes, "The devil is in the details". The storms that come through late Monday night are likely going to lay out some sort of outflow boundary that'll probably end up to our south in the morning. The warm front currently to our north will also slip south, but most likely stay just north of the Wisconsin/Illinois state line. Following the precipitation in the morning we should see at least some recovery into the afternoon with regards to both sunshine and temperatures and this will probably develop some sort of cap, or lid, on our atmosphere during the afternoon.

A wave of energy moving in from the west and southwest will be the 'firing' mechanism for thunderstorm development - most likely in eastern Iowa and along the warm front in southern Wisconsin by late afternoon. Should these storms develop, they would most likely be supercell in nature (individual thunderstorms) capable of large hail and isolated tornadoes. Through time, those storms would then merge into more of a cluster of storms, or line of storms, shifting from the large hail threat to more of a wind and isolated tornado threat through the evening.

I think our window to pay attention to the radar will be from about 3pm/4pm to 10pm. Northern Illinois and southern Wisconsin are in an 'enhanced risk' which is a level 3 out of 5 risk for severe storms.

So, what do we need to make sure we are doing going into Tuesday? Be sure to monitor the weather throughout the day. Easier said than done in our busy lives, but before heading out the door in the morning check in with Meteorologist Joey Marino.

He will have the latest information on any impacts the storms early Tuesday morning could have on our environment for later in the afternoon and evening. And then throughout the afternoon both myself and Meteorologist Jordan Wolfe will be in keeping a close eye on radar and providing updates. Both Joey and Meteorologist Owen Szarley will be out in the field keeping an eye on the skies. Review your severe storm safety plan at home, or if you're going to be out - know where to go should a warning be issued. But know that myself, Meteorologist Joey Marino, Meteorologist Jordan Wolfe and Meteorologist Owen Szarley will have you covered!