Hints of spring: Northern Illinois could see a multi‑day stretch of 50s

Even though Tuesday featured a cool northwesterly wind, it felt nice as the Rockford Airport came in with highs in the upper 40s. That was our third day this month with highs in the 40s. 

 

 

  

We take a small step backward in the temperature department as the colder air from yesterday's frontal passage sits overhead. Still, we can expect afternoon highs to land in the low 40s and since we have an area of high pressure sitting nearby, plenty of sunshine is on the table from start to finish.

 

  

Forecast models show clouds increasing overnight as a very weak system dives into the plains. If there was any chance for precipitation, it would be during the morning hours Thursday and more to the south and west of the Stateline. At this moment, we'll keep a very small chance with skies remaining mostly cloudy as we go into the afternoon. High temperatures should once again peak in the low 40s. 

 

So far in 2026, Rockford has observed three 50° days and they have all occurred in January. Two of them breaking a previous record high. 

 

 

  

We will likely add to that tally this weekend and next week as northern Illinois could see multiple days with highs in the 50s. Ridging over the central plains will supply us with this next batch of milder air, pushing afternoon highs into the 50s possibly Friday, but more than likely over the weekend. Overnight lows will end up closer to Rockford's average highs, dropping into the low 30s Saturday night and Sunday night, then into the upper 30s Monday night. 

Mild stretch continues with zero signs of Arctic chill returning

Despite high clouds floating overhead, Monday saw a quick climb in temperatures thanks to an organized and warm wind out of the south. 

That warm wind continues this morning as we await the arrival of our next cold front, leaving temperatures in the low to mid 30s. Forecast models bring said cold front through before mid-morning, swapping surface winds to the northwest.  

Despite the cooler winds, partial sunshine will allow temperatures to climb into the low 40s for the third time this month. The first being last Friday (42° ) and of course we had 40° weather yesterday. Winds could gust up to 30 mph at times. 

Behind the departing cold front, high pressure settles into the central plains, allowing dry but also mild conditions to continue into the middle of the work week. Expect afternoon highs to peak in the upper 30s under a partly to mostly cloudy sky.  

The next chance for precipitation will arrive Thursday morning into early Thursday afternoon as a weak storm system tracks into the Midwest. Drier air from this area of high pressure may limit the intensity and eastward progression of whatever precipitation forms ahead of the surface low . However, we may see a few light snow showers or even a light rain/snow mix before clearing out Friday morning. If we were to see any sticking snow, it wouldn't amount to much more than a few tenths of an inch.

From there, weather headlines will quickly turn back to mild temperatures. Afternoon highs are expected to climb back into the low 40s Friday, then into the mid 40s both Saturday and Sunday. Precipitation chances remain quite low, though a very slim chance for rain exists late Saturday into Sunday. 

Milder air flows across northern Illinois as cold air remains locked up north

 

We continue to climb from the cold that has held strong across northern Illinois and southern Wisconsin the last few weeks. Temperatures Monday afternoon warmed into the upper 30s and low 40s, with Rockford's high reaching 41 degrees, our second 40 degree day this month (last on was 42 on Friday).

Cloud cover continues to roll in ahead of a warm front currently draped across the Midwest. Behind the front temperatures have warmed into the 50s and 60s over parts of Iowa, and the 70s out in the Plains! While it won't get *that* warm locally, above average temperatures are expected through the week.

For the rest of Monday night skies will remain mostly cloudy as a warm front draws closer to the Stateline. We may see a sprinkle or two from the front, but most will remain dry. It will, however, keep our temperatures mild overnight with most locations remaining in the 30s. The warmer start will help temperatures rise back into the low 40s, despite a cold front sweeping through first thing Tuesday morning.

Northwest winds will increase, gusting at times 25-30 mph. This will keep chills in the 20s during the morning and then low to mid 30s for the afternoon. Skies will turn partly cloudy for the afternoon as high pressure builds in across the Midwest and Plains, paving the way for a mostly sunny sky Wednesday.

Temperatures will warm into the upper 30s, close to 40 degrees Wednesday afternoon. Drier air from high pressure will still be somewhat in control as a weak low-pressure system moves in across the Midwest. We may see a few light snow showers from this low mid-day Thursday before clearing out Friday morning. If we were to see any sticking snow, it wouldn't amount to much more than a few tenths of an inch. 

Northern Illinois continues its escape from January’s brutal deep freeze

A cold front Saturday morning put a brief hold on our mild stretch, limiting afternoon highs to the upper 20s Saturday, then low 30s Sunday. 

 

 

  

That brief hold ends today as winds stay warm ahead of our next warm front/cold front. Despite clouds being a bit more widespread today, afternoon highs will end up back in the low 40s. There could be a sprinkle or two late tonight as said cold front pushes in from the west. Otherwise, we can expect cloud cover to decrease as we go into Tuesday afternoon, allowing highs peaking in the low 40s.  

Precipitation from midweek on remain quite low as a high pressure system glides and stall over the Great Lakes region. Forecast models keep this high stagnant from Thursday to Sunday, which limits the amount of moisture that reaches the Stateline. 

 

  

There's a slim chance with a disturbance Thursday and then again on Saturday. However, precipitation amounts are highest across portion of Missouri as well as the Tennessee Valley. High temperatures during this stretch briefly cool back into the mid 30s by Thursday afternoon, but should recover back into the low 40s by the weekend. 
 

Mild pattern with limited precipitation chances this week

 Cloud cover limited temperatures to the low 30s Sunday afternoon, and we only may reach the upper 30s Monday afternoon. Thick clouds would limit temperatures from reaching 40, but any breaks in the clouds would allow temperatures to push into the low 40s. For now the forecast high is 42°.

A few sprinkles may be possible Monday evening into very early Tuesday morning, but we will likely remain dry through at least Wednesday. Our next better chance for precipitation arrives Thursday in the form of some light snow chances, but high pressure over the Great Lakes will prevent abundant moisture from working overhead. Any precipitation we do see looks to be light and scattered in nature as of now, unless the high pressure trends weaker.

A more active pattern may begin to develop toward the end of the week and next weekend, as more frequent precipitation chances may begin to work toward the area for the middle of February. This also comes with a warmer pattern, with a higher chance for above average temperatures according to the Climate Prediction Center's latest outlooks.

Above average temperatures and calm to start the week

 

Although we had a slight cooldown yesterday, temperatures look to climb back above freezing today and into the rest of the week. We'll see temperatures climb through the day into the mid 30's while clouds will stick around for most of the day with some intermittent sunshine.

 Into the next two days, temperatures will climb well above average into the low 40's which will give us a comfortable start to the week. Some other good news is that precipitation chances remain on the lower side, however a few isolated rain showers may be possible into the evening Monday night.

Temperatures then look to stay well above average into the end of the week and into next week with temperatures into the 40's and possibly into the 50's! Our upper-level jet stream pattern begins to become more active next week as well with a troughing pattern looking likely.

Quiet, mild pattern with more clouds than sun

 It was a chilly Saturday as high temperatures only reached back into the 20s under the influence of high pressure. But the milder trends will return next week, with a few more days reaching near or above 40 degrees.

Cloud cover could have a significant impact on the temperatures each day though. At the moment, cloud coverage Monday and Tuesday is expected to be around 70-80%, which would be considered a mostly cloudy sky. If clouds remain thicker around 90-100%, the potential high temperature may not quite be reached. An overcast sky can result in a 5° difference in temperature compared to even just a few breaks in the clouds.

At the moment, our forecast leans for a few breaks in the clouds which would promote highs in the low 40s Monday and Tuesday. But if clouds do not end up breaking at all, we could be limited to the upper 30s each day.

This milder pattern does not come with many precipitation chances. We could see a few spotty sprinkles or light rain showers Monday night into early Tuesday, but the large majority of the area should remain dry through Wednesday. A more active pattern will begin to develop late next week, bringing more favorable chances for precipitation, including a wintry mix.