Warmth retreats following Sunday's cold front

 

The summer-like warmth was nice while it lasted, but as the old saying goes, "All good things must come to an end". The 70s and 80s we felt Friday and Saturday will be replaced by the 40s this afternoon. In fact, as of 6am temperatures are already starting to drop as the first of two cold fronts pass through the region.

Cloud cover will continue to increase throughout the morning as temperatures slowly drop following the passage of a cold front. North winds will also increase, gusting close to 30 mph from time to time. We'll see an increase in moisture as the front passes through but limited on the overall rainfall today, with only a few hundredths to a couple tenths of an inch falling.

High pressure will move down the Plains Sunday evening, settling over the Upper Midwest Monday. This will push overnight lows down into the 20s with wind chills in the low 20s for many. There could even be a few spots that dip into the upper teens. Skies will remain mostly sunny Monday afternoon with temperatures rising back into the mid and upper 40s.

Mild night ahead, sharp cool-down Sunday

 We have a new champion atop the leaderboard of warmest days this year! Today's high temperature in Rockford topped out at 79! Unfortunately, we don't have any days that will crack the top 5 over the next few days with a cold front passing overnight.

That's because of a very sharp drop in temperatures between Saturday and Sunday. An overnight cold front will bring a change by more than 30 degrees from one afternoon to the next. Sunday's high will only top out at 49, but that may likely be reached prior to 10AM.

Ahead of the front, temperatures will remain very mild in the 50s through early morning, keeping us very mild. But behind the front, temperatures will fall through the afternoon and evening, reaching the low 40s by sunset. This also comes with a strong North-Northeast wind gusting upwards of 25 mph at times. It will come as quite a chill compared to Saturday's nearly 80-degree mark!

A few pockets of light rain or drizzle may be possible from late-morning through afternoon, but any rainfall will not amount to much. Any locations that see rain will only see a few hundredths of an inch of rain at the most. High pressure slides in for Monday, clearing us out and keeping the chill around. But another push of mild air arrives mid-week with more 50s on the way!

Spring in full force: Northern Illinois aims for its warmest day yet

Daylight Increases:

As we move past the first day of spring, the Northern Hemisphere is now gaining daylight each day on our way toward the summer solstice - which is just 92 days away. From here on out, the sun climbs a little higher and stays a little longer, giving us those steadily lengthening days! 

  

Warmest Day of 2026:

Sunrise comes at 6:57AM today, with our sunset occurring at 7:09PM. Between both times, expect a good amount of sunshine paired with warm south to southwesterly breeze. That combination will help northern Illinois achieve it's warmest day of the year thus far, with afternoon highs peaking in the mid to upper 70s. This would also go down as Rockford's third 70-degree day of 2026 - all of which have occurred during the month of March. 

Quick to Cool:

With today's warm surge into the 70s, it's a great idea to take full advantage of the springlike weather while it's here. A strong cold front is on the way, and once it moves through, temperatures will be restricted to the 40s Sunday and also for Monday. Tagging along with said cold front will also be enough moisture to spark a few scattered rain showers.  

Warm start to the weekend, sharp cool down Sunday

 Friday was a very mild day in the Stateline, especially given the 6" of snowfall that came down just in the same week! The high temperature just 3 days ago was only in the low 20s, but we reached the low 70s Friday as nearly all of the snowfall has now melted.

And the warming trend continues at least for one more day, as we will see afternoon highs climb into the mid-70s by the afternoon. While not nearly a record, it will still be very warm for mid-March standards, about 25 degrees above average!

But what goes up must also come down. An early morning cold front will lead to a sharp cool-down for Sunday afternoon, as temperatures in a few spots may struggle to reach above 50 degrees. The warmest part of the day will be centered near or just before 12PM, with falling temperatures through the afternoon into the 40s and eventually 30s. This cold front will also produce the chance for a few spotty showers, but any rainfall we do see will not amount to much.

Enjoy the warmth of Saturday while it lasts, because Sunday will be nearly 30 degrees cooler by late afternoon's time. Southwesterly wind gusts near 25 mph will aid to bring the warmth of Saturday, but Sunday's Northerly wind will aid to cool things off just as quickly. The cool-down is short-lived, as we return to the 50s and above average temperatures as early as Tuesday.

Winter ends, spring begins… and the warmth just keeps going

First Day of Spring:

Today marks the first day of spring, and the new season officially arrives at 10:46AM. As we cross the vernal equinox, daylight and nighttime become nearly identical, and from here on out, we'll see the amount of daylight continue to grow. 

  

Warmth Continues:

Spring begins where winter left off, partly sunny with afternoon highs in the low 60s. Forecast models show a cold front slipping through late in the morning in to the early afternoon. We're not expecting precipitation with today's frontal passage, but it will shift our winds around. By the afternoon, winds turn to the north, and then to the northeast overnight. This could bring the possibility for fog by Saturday morning. 
 

This warm-up fortunately will carry on into the first weekend of spring. South to southwesterly winds on Saturday will give temperatures a huge boost, landing them in the upper 60s, close to 70°. By Sunday, a cold front moves in and shakes things up a bit, knocking temperatures back into the 50s and bringing a chance for a few showers throughout the day. Temperatures trend backwards briefly for the start of next week, landing in the upper 40s Monday.  

Look back: Long stretch of record heat for Rockford in March 2012

 

Who remembers the heat wave much of the region experienced during the month of March in 2012? I know I do. The heat began early in the season during the month of March which sent many farmers into their fields to begin planting. But the jumpstart on the spring and summer warmth didn't come with much rainfall. March ended up just below the monthly average for precipitation at 2.09 inches (average 2.40 inches), and below average for snowfall. We were able to gain some moisture back during the month of April, but it was all downhill from there with several months in a row that ended up below their monthly average. This eventually led to extreme drought conditions over much of northern Illinois and southern Wisconsin that lasted well into the Fall season.

During the month of March many high temperature records were broken in a stretch of nearly 8 consecutive days of record heat: March 15th-18th, and 20th-22nd. The only day that didn't achieve a record was on the 19th when the high temperature reached 77 degrees, one degree away from the record of 78 set back in 1921.

We won't end up with any record heat this upcoming weekend, but temperatures will feel more like early to mid-May, rather than late March. Highs on Friday will warm into the low 60s but we'll likely see a little more cloud cover during the afternoon, which could limit the overall temperature - especially to the north in Wisconsin. Winds will turn back to the southwest Saturday which will push highs close to 70 degrees for the afternoon.

Melting snow provides main source of soil moisture over the next week

 The recent warmth has aided significantly in melting the snow from the ground, with snow depth at the Rockford airport dropping to 1" as of Thursday afternoon. But unfortunately, that snow melt will be the primary source of soil moisture over the next week or so, with very little in the way of precipitation chances on the horizon.

The primary chance for any rain we have will come along a cold front Sunday afternoon, but even that does not come with much abundant moisture. Any rain showers we see will be relatively spotty in nature, with a good chance that parts or most of the area see no measurable rain at all.

This is not just the case locally but also across much of the country as well. The Weather Prediction Center highlights this well, showing zero precipitation across nearly the entire Central and Southwestern parts of the country. We only have that slim chance Sunday, but otherwise remain dry into the middle of next week.

That isn't great news for the Stateline which has already seen several dry months dating back to last fall. As of Thursday afternoon, soil moisture was quite dry across a large part of the Midwest, with nearly all in the Stateline under the 10th percentile of the moisture we should have. The dry spots also correlate with the latest drought monitor released today. Some moisture will soak in from recent snowmelt, but we will not see much precipitation add to those totals in the near term.