Timing out the rain: What to expect on Election Day

Storm Reports:

Despite the heightened risk for strong to severe storms yesterday, a more linear storm mode limited the full potential of the highly unstable atmosphere that was in place. In the end, there were 7 wind reports and 4 hail reports across the plains. Today, the severe risk is lower but not zero, with the greatest threat remaining west and southwest of the Quad Cities/Davenport area where the Storm Prediction Center has a level 1 of 5 outlined. 

Rain Chances Locally:

Locally, thunderstorm chances remain low and any storms that do develop are expected to stay below severe limits. A stray rumble of thunder cannot be ruled out, but most of what passes through the area will be in the form of scattered showers. Combined with a steady southeast wind, temperatures gradually climb into the upper 60s this afternoon. At times, winds could gust up to 35 mph. 

A few heavy downpours will be possible overnight as the area of low pressure lifts into Minnesota, allowing deeper moisture to stream into the region. As the low begins to occlude, however, the steadiest rainfall will shift north and west, as well as east into the Great Lakes and Ohio Valley regions. This will allow rain chances to decrease into Wednesday morning, with showers becoming widely scattered and remaining that way through much of the day. 

Rainfall totals for most locations should end up between 0.25" to .50", though a few isolated spots could pick up as much as 0.75". Clouds will be slow to break on Wednesday as the occluded storm system spins over Minnesota. That, along with a gusty southwest wind will help keep temperatures relatively mild for the middle of the work week, leaving most around the 60-degree mark. 

Long-Term Outlook:

After today, rain chances take a step back as our weather pattern simmers down. In fact, the latest from the Climate Prediction Center continue to favor a drier pattern heading into the middle of November, with below-average precipitation becoming increasingly likely for northern Illinois and southern Wisconsin. At the same time, temperature outlooks indicated that a milder-than-normal trend is likely to tag along with the dry conditions.  

Election Day forecast

 

If you plan on heading to the polls at any point during the day Tuesday, make sure you grab the jacket and/or umbrella because scattered rain showers - with even a few rumbles of thunder - are expected throughout the day. While not a total washout, there will be some points of heavier rainfall throughout the morning, and then into the late afternoon and evening.

For the rest of Monday night - areas of steady drizzle and mist will continue to occur as a line of steadier showers extends from central Wisconsin back through northwest Illinois. Most of this activity will travel to the north/northeast, with little progress to the east overnight. Temperatures have warmed as of 10pm, with most locations now in the low 60s. Look for these numbers to climb into the mid-60s by sunrise Tuesday.

Tuesday morning may see a lull in accumulating precipitation as the steady rain that fell over far northwest Illinois (mainly around Jo Daviess County) briefly comes to an end. But there will still be some drizzle and mist, so expect a damp and wet start to the day. As forcing increasing with an incoming low-pressure system we should begin to see an increase in showers from west to east mid-morning, continuing into the afternoon and evening. With limited instability locally our thunder chances should remain low, but not zero, and we could hear a few rumbles of thunder into the afternoon and evening. Rainfall totals will be highest across Jo Daviess County Tuesday morning, with an additional 0.25-0.75 inches coming down by Tuesday night area wide.

As you head out the door Tuesday make sure you have the rain jacket and/or umbrella. Southerly winds will be gusty from time to time with a few gusts approaching 30 mph, so the umbrella may be hard to hold throughout the day.

And be careful, too, while driving. The combination of the rain and wet leaves on the roads will make things a little extra slick. While there are other factors that impact your stopping distance -

such as traction and type of vehicle - wet leaves on the road give us less friction between the tires and roadway (think of how ice works) and that could not only increase your stopping distance but also cause you to lose traction a little easier while driving.   

Rain chances on the rise as next big system pushes in

Next Big Storm System:

Our next big storm system will begin to take shape over the next few days, bringing big changes to the weather pattern across northern Illinois. As an area of low pressure organizes and lifts to our north and west, the pressure gradient at the surface will tighten across the Midwest, leading to a stretch of breezy, but mild conditions for the start of the week. 

Timing Out The Impacts:

Southerly winds will not only keep temperatures well-above average, but will also help transport increasing moisture northward into the region. That moisture, combined with several disturbances rotating around the incoming storm system will result in an increasing chance for showers starting late today. 

 

Showers late today, tonight, and through the first half of Tuesday will be scattered. It won't be until Tuesday afternoon and evening where we will see our best chance for not only steady showers, but maybe a rumble of thunder or two. It's safe to say you'll want to keep an umbrella nearby from start to finish, as this will be the wettest day of this stretch. 

 

  

Low pressure is expected to linger nearby through the middle of the work week, keeping conditions both breezy and unsettled across the Stateline. As a result, we'll continue to carry a slight chance for a few passing showers, though Wednesday will likely have more dry time mixing in with the highest moisture being focused to the east of the region. 

October 2026 joins Rockford's warmest on record

A Look Back at October:

October 2026 will go down as one of Rockford's warmest Octobers on record. The average temperature at the Rockford Airport finished at 60.8°, ranking as the 9th warmest on record. Warmth wasn't confined to just a few days either as a remarkable 17 of October's 31 days recorded high temperatures of 70° or warmer, ranking it the 8th most 70° days in October since records began in 1905. 

Even overnight temperatures were unusually mild, with just one freezing temperature recorded all month, a low of 31° on October 17th. A look at the record books shows that has only happened 6 other times at the Rockford Airport, 1931, 1940, 1956, 1963, 2017, and 2021. Taken together, the abundance of 70° afternoon, lack of freezing night, and consistently above-average temperatures made this October feel more like September. 

First Week of November:

The warmth isn't finished just because the calendar has flipped to November. A developing area of low pressure tracking to our north and west will place the region under a robust southerly to southeasterly flow through the first half of the week. That persistent wind will continue to transport mild air into the area, pushing temperatures well-above early-November standards. Highs today will wind up in the low 60s, then low 70s for Tuesday afternoon.   

 

 

 

 
 

Drizzle possible through Monday, steadier rain Tuesday and Wednesday

 Rainfall potential will increase over the coming days as a broader low pressure system approaches the area. Sunday night and Monday will mainly feature isolated to scattered patches of light drizzle, if any rain at all. But steadier showers and higher coverage of rain will arrive Monday night through Tuesday night. While there may be occasional pockets of dry time Tuesday, they will be few and far between.

We will remain unseasonably mild over this stretch with a steady Southerly wind, especially Monday night into Tuesday. A few wind gusts may even reach 30-35 mph at times. The steadier rain showers will hold off until Monday evening, with waves of rain then continuing through the night.

A few rumbles of thunder may also be possible within some of the heavier bursts of rain, particularly Tuesday afternoon and evening. While severe weather is not expected, some of the showers may be accompanied by gusty winds of 35+ mph. Rain will slowly taper off Tuesday night, but additional showers may wrap around the system into Wednesday.

All told, most in the Stateline will see around a half inch of rain between Monday and Wednesday. There is potential for a few spots to pick up over 1" of rainfall, where multiple waves of steadier showers pass through over the same locations over and over. Unsettled weather with possibly a few lingering showers will remain possible into Thursday and maybe Friday, as afternoon highs drop back into the 50s.

Breezy pattern with widespread rain begins Monday

 While a few light showers or areas of drizzle remain possible from time-to-time through Sunday afternoon, that rain will not amount to much. Accumulated rainfall will likely remain under a tenth of an inch for most who see additional rainfall between Saturday night and Sunday.

A more widespread and soaking rain will approach the region with our next weather system beginning Monday. A few light showers will be possible as early as midday, but the higher coverage of rain will arrive later in the day. It will not be raining the entire day, but the afternoon to evening will feature higher chances and intensity of showers.

Rain will be more widespread Monday night through Tuesday, with some embedded heavier rain and possibly even a few rumbles of thunder. This system will not be conducive of severe weather locally, however. Rain may not exit until Wednesday, when a cold front works to clear out more of the abundant moisture.

As this strong low pressure pushes through, it will also bring a period of stronger winds with it. Wind gusts could approach 20-35 mph at times early next week. Winds will start from the Southeast on Monday, then from a more South and Southwest direction Tuesday and Wednesday. This will also work to keep us on a milder note, with afternoon highs in the mid to upper 60s.

Halloween forecast: Not overly chilly, but scattered showers likely

 Many trick-or-treaters are hoping for a less spooky forecast, but it also could be much worse! This Halloween weekend will feature slightly warmer than average temperatures along with subtle rain chances from time to time. Both Saturday and Sunday will see afternoon highs in the low to mid-60s, while overnight lows will only fall to the lower 50s.

The initial push of rain will arrive early Saturday morning but will linger well into the afternoon. Rain probably will not come down very hard, but it will be enough to be annoying for anyone spending more than a few minutes outdoors. There may be a few pockets of steadier showers, but nothing anywhere close to a downpour.

The coverage of rain will gradually decrease through the evening, but won't quite dry out across the entire area until later in the night. Even 7-8PM may still have a few pockets of lighter showers from time to time, but most of the area will be drying out not long after.

Temperatures may not be quite as cool as the model pictured above would suggest, though. Most areas will remain in the mid-50s through 8-9PM, but a few showers may still be lingering. Trick-or-treaters should have the umbrella handy but may not quite need to attach it to the costumes! Sunday may also feature a few showers from time to time, but even less coverage and intensity compared to Saturday.