Strong winds possible in the wake of morning thunderstorms

Behind this morning's round of storms, we're now watching for the development of a wake low. This can lead to a quick surge in winds even after the storms move out and push to our south. 

For this, a Special Weather Statement has been issued for the highlighted counties until 12:30PM. These winds can be strong enough to blow around loose objects around, down small tree limbs, and could make travel, especially for high-profile vehicles - a bit more difficult at times. Use extra caution. 

On top of that, the National Weather Service placed Winnebago, Boone, Ogle, Lee, and DeKalb County under a Wind Advisory. 

This will be in place until 1PM this afternoon, mainly for the winds associated with the wake low. 
 

SEVERE THUNDERSTORM WARNING Issued For Portions of Carroll, Whiteside County

 

A SEVERE THUNDERSTORM WARNING has been issued by the NWS for portions of Carroll and Whiteside Counties until 8:30. This storm will be capable of 70 mph wind gusts and spotty small hail. 

Trained weather spotters have reported 70 mph wind gusts with this storm. Some areas have seen 80-90 mph wind gusts. For timing information, see the below graphic.

 

Severe thunderstorm watch issued for some

A Severe Thunderstorm Watch is in effect for Whiteside, Carroll, and Jo Daviess Counties until 11 AM. 

 

 

  

Strong storms to the west across central Iowa will approach these counties, posing a risk for damaging winds and large hail. Stay weather-aware!
 

Heavy rain, severe storms possible across northern Illinois today

Latest on Severe Potential:

Uncertainty #1 with today's severe weather threat is already becoming apparent this morning. A large area of showers and thunderstorms is pushing into portions of eastern Iowa and southwest Wisconsin. 

How long this activity holds together - and how the atmosphere recovers behind it - will play a major role in the Stateline's severe weather potential later today. IF storms linger, they could limit instability, and the added cloud cover and rain may slow the northward push of the warm front. This could ultimately temper with the strength and coverage of severe storms this afternoon and evening. With that being said, today will be a "play it by ear" kind of day. Meaning, we have to monitor and see how things go as the day progresses. 

Heavy downpours is certainly on the table, especially with the batch of storms expected to move through this morning. IF the warm front is able to lift north into the I-88 corridor, all severe weather hazards, including a few tornadoes, would become possible, especially along and south of the front where the ingredients for severe weather is much higher. Even areas north of the warm front could still see severe weather, though the primary threat would lean more towards damaging straight-line winds.   

In the latest outlook, the Storm Prediction Center left much of the region under a level 2 of 5 Slight risk for scattered severe storms with locations along and south of I-88 under a level 3 enhanced risk. Further south, a level 4 of 5 Moderate risk remains in place for those across central Illinois and eastern Indiana. 

  

MyStateline+ App: 

Be sure you have multiple ways to receive watches and warnings throughout the day. Have alerts enabled on your cell phone, NOAA weather radio, and make sure to have the MyStateline+ App downloaded to stay up to date with live coverage. 

  

Cool Thursday:

Behind today's frontal passage, conditions become less active but cooler for Thursday. With a steady west-northwest breeze in place, afternoon highs will be limited to the low 70s once again. 

 

Uncertainty still surrounds Wednesday’s severe threat across northern Illinois

3 Things to Watch:

We've got three things to watch in the forecast over the next few days, and each brings a different feel across northern Illinois. 

First up, keep an eye out this morning for a passing shower or storm- nothing widespread, but enough to wear you may run into a few raindrops during the morning commute. Tomorrow, the focus will shift to a better chance for heavier rain and storms as more moisture and energy move in. Severe weather potential locally will all depend on where certain boundaries set up. Then by Thursday, we flip the script entirely, cooler air, a steady breeze, and highs falling back close to 70-degrees.  

Today's Potential:

We'll actually miss out on any severe threat this morning as the main area of low pressure tracks to our north, keeping the stronger dynamics with the associated cold front displaced away from us. 

The Storm Prediction Center instead has a better risk for severe weather focused to the east and south of the Chicago metro, where a level 1 of 5 marginal risk is in place. In those areas, a few storms may be able to produce damaging winds and with extra spin in the atmosphere, a tornado or two cannot be ruled out. High temperatures locally will be very similar to the past few days, landing in the low 70s under partly cloudy and breezy conditions. 

Wednesday's Severe:

As we head into Wednesday, we'll be watching the potential for pockets of heavy rain and even a few isolated strong thunderstorms, especially during the mid to late morning hours. 

That early activity will play a role into how things will evolve later in the day, along with where a warm front and any outflow boundaries set up. Right now, most of guidance keep that warm front south of I-88, even south of I-80, which would limit the higher-end severe threat locally. However, if - and it's a big if - if that boundary were to lift north closer to the Illinois/Wisconsin border, that would raise the potential for all severe hazard, including damaging winds, hail, and even a strong tornado or two for areas like Rockford, Belvidere, and Freeport.  

At this point, that scenario appears to be on a lower-end possibility, but it's definitely something to keep a close eye on. For those uncertainties, the Storm Prediction Center has left much of the Stateline under a level 2 of 5 Slight Risk for scattered strong to severe thunderstorms while also upgrading portions of central Illinois and northwest Indiana to a level 4 of 5 moderate risk for severe weather. 
 

 

Cooler pattern remains, few storm chances ahead

 Much of the week ahead will be characterized by cooler, more refreshing weather. Heat and humidity are a combination not seen in the immediate forecast, keeping afternoon highs in the 70s for the next several days. Overnights will be downright refreshing, with most low temperatures in the mid 50s or cooler!

But that pattern does not come without rain and storm chances. Our first potential arrives with a quick-moving wave to the North early in the day Tuesday. This will produce some isolated to widely scattered showers and a few thunderstorms. Our severe weather looks very limited locally, but a storm or two may perk up and produce some strong winds or large hail across far Eastern Illinois into Indiana. The Storm Prediction Center has a Level 1/5 Marginal risk in place for areas South and East of the Stateline. Much of the day will be dry locally over toward Northern Illinois.

A more potent and dynamic system will arrive Wednesday. This storm threat will be much broader with better ingredients for severe weather across much of the mid-Mississippi Valley into the Great Lakes. Multiple waves of showers and storms will be possible, with some storms strong to severe.

The highest confidence of severe weather looks to be centered South of Northern Illinois with limited moisture and instability this far North. Dynamic systems like this have a tendency to make up for limited ingredients, so a few severe storms may still be possible locally. Exact timing will depend on the track of our surface low pressure. But for now, keep tuned as the forecast will likely evolve as we get closer to the event!

Rockford Ironman race weather forecast

 Radar may look a little daunting around daybreak Sunday with some isolated to scattered showers before 5-6AM. But that rain will clear before too long, exiting the area by 6-7AM. That will leave far less cloud cover and a good bit of sunshine once the sun rises.

Rockford's Ironman 70.3 race will begin at 7AM Sunday with temperatures in the low 60s and they will only warm into the low 70s. Humidity will be trending down through the day, with dew points falling to the 40s. The only minor impact from ideal race conditions will be a stout Northwest wind, gusting near 30 mph at times. Good luck to all the racers!