Friday, May 23, 2025

Rain chances to stay away over Memorial Day weekend

Weather-wise, it doesn't seem like we're approaching Memorial Day weekend as temperatures this week have been well-below average. 

Thankfully, the coolest air is now behind us and improvements are expected to filter in over the holiday weekend. Starting with today, high pressure sitting to our north will leave us partly cloudy, though winds will be light out of the northwest. This will limit our ability to effectively warm. In this end, we should manage to reach the mid 60s.

This weekend will be no different. Both Saturday and Sunday should feature a good mixture of clouds and sunshine with afternoon highs landing in the upper 60s. Cooler than average but nice enough for outdoor plans. Memorial Day will start with sunshine, though clouds should fill in later in the day as a weak system approaches. Rain chances with this system will thankfully hold off until off until the overnight hours. Temperatures will top out in the upper 60s.

Thursday, May 22, 2025

Gradual warming pattern with slim rain chances next week

 We have been running a rainfall deficit all spring, as the Rockford airport is now short by about 2" since March 1st. The latest drought monitor from the National Drought Mitigation Center shows much of the region now within a Moderate Drought, a little bit of an expansion from last week's outlook. This data is prior to Tuesday's rainfall of over an inch, so there may be some improvements for next week, but we remain in a dry pattern ahead.

We will remain under the influence of high pressure through the holiday weekend, but Tuesday into Wednesday will bring subtle rain chances. This map shows how much water vapor there is in a vertical column of air, indicating much higher moisture to the South. The high-pressure Northeast will prevent much of that moisture from reaching us until Tuesday and Wednesday, when smaller doses of it reaches this far North. Temperatures will be gradually rising all week as ridging from the West slowly builds in over the week. High temperatures will likely be in the mid-60s through Tuesday, then possibly to the low 70s Wednesday and Thursday.

Looking toward the last week of May and start of June, we will maintain a somewhat dry pattern. The Climate Prediction Center outlook favors drier than average conditions across the upper Great Lakes and Northern Plains. Meanwhile, above average rainfall looks to fall across portions of Texas and New Mexico. Temperatures will look to return near average for us locally, while the cooler pattern continues across much of the Southern part of the country. With broad ridging building into the West, a warmer than average pattern will begin to settle in across the Northern Plains and Pacific NW.

Limited rain chances heading into Memorial Day weekend

 


We've managed to squeeze out a little more sunshine this afternoon which has given our temperatures a nice little boost over Wednesday's high, with a few locations breaking 60 degrees! This is the first time that has happened since Sunday afternoon.

Most of the shower activity has been to the south, falling just outside the viewing area. Winds will remain breezy through the evening as we hold on to at least some cloud cover through the rest of the night. But as drier air moves in, this should help clear our skies heading into Friday morning. Overnight lows will fall into the low 40s.


Friday will feature some sunshine but with some cooler air still aloft we'll likely see cumulus clouds build back in during the afternoon. This will limit our afternoon temperatures to the low to mid 60s, but a step in the right direction. High pressure will continue to build across the Great Lakes into the holiday weekend which will limit our overall rain chances locally.

A northeast to east wind will keep a somewhat drier air mass in place, while showers and thunderstorms occur to the southwest. Some showers may try to sneak into our skies Friday, and then again Sunday, but with any precipitation that would come down it doesn't appear to amount to much. So, if your holiday plans have you spending time outdoors you shouldn't have to worry too much about any significant rainfall.


Temperatures will warm slightly Saturday and Sunday, warming into the mid - perhaps upper 60s - through Monday. Our next noticeable chance for any precipitation may not arrive until the Tuesday/Wednesday timeframe next week.  

Dry conditions and below average temperatures into the weekend

 After a couple days of much needed rainfall, we begin to shift our focus towards the weekend where dry conditions once again look to return! Luckily, with the past few days of rainfall (mainly Tuesday), it won't affect us as much if we stayed dry both days.

We won't be completely dry yet either today as satellite and radar this morning is still picking up a few showers moving through the region. Our moisture values will drop through the day today, however early on we may still see a few showers this afternoon and near this evening.
Even with the chances of a few isolated showers, we won't see much sunshine until late while our temperatures will remain cool today. Back-to-back 50-degree days looks to keep on going into today, but a bit more sunshine this evening or into the afternoon may help us get to 60 degrees!

It's been a wild ride these past two weeks in terms of temperatures as last week nearly every day was 10 degrees or higher above the average high temperature. While in the span of only 2 days we have managed to drop our daily high temperatures 15 degrees below our average high!

Heading into the weekend though, temperatures look to climb back up into the 60's at least! High pressure at the surface over the next couple of days will keep us calm at the surface along with drier conditions throughout the Midwest. This will make the start of the weekend calmer along with a bit more sunshine helping bring our cooler temperatures up a bit.



We're going to be staying dry through the weekend due to most of our atmospheric moisture staying to our south. With cooler and drier flow moving from the north towards us within the jet stream we're going to continue our cooler trend along with pushing any available moisture farther to our south. This is going to keep our precipitation chances through the weekend and possibly further quite low as we'll have the lift for showers/storms but the main ingredient for rain (moisture) doesn't look to return till later next week. 


Wednesday, May 21, 2025

Cool pattern sticking around beyond Memorial Day

 The overarching cool pattern we have seen lately will not be going anywhere even though the unofficial start of summer. High pressure will be in place across the Great Lakes and Northern Plains regions, keeping the warmer summer-like air mass displaced well to the South through much of the next week.

An early look at Memorial Day likely will feature high temperatures in the mid-60s with a slim chance for a few spotty showers. If we don't reach the 70-degree mark, it would be the coolest Memorial Day since 2013 in Rockford, when we had a high of 61°! On average, Memorial Day features high temperatures in the mid-70s. Another note: we have seen measurable rain 35% of Memorial Days since 1905 here in Rockford.

The pocket of cooler air will remain influenced by troughing across the Great Lakes region through the early part of next week. Eventually, that will pull away giving us a slow climb back near average highs toward the middle of next week. With troughing overhead, we will also see slim chances for rain Tuesday as well, but Wednesday looks drier and warmer. We may finally reach back to the low 70s by Wednesday, but that will still be below average.

If this continued cool pattern is making you wish for summer, just give it about a month! Average high temperatures will be in the 80s by mid-June, and peak toward the end of June with average highs in the mid-80s.

Slow warming trend into the holiday weekend

 For the third day in a row high temperatures have failed to warm out of the 50s, with Wednesday temperatures so far only reaching 52 degrees. This is well below our average high of 73 degrees. While we will see a little bit of a warming trend into the holiday weekend, it looks like the cooler pattern will stick around not only into the weekend but also into next week.

Remainder of tonight:


Drizzle and light rain showers have moved back into northern Illinois which has caused visibility to fall in some locations. As the drizzle continues into evening visibility may remain an issue, something to keep in mind if you're out and about.

Temperatures won't fall off too much as overnight lows dip into the mid-40s. Widely scattered rain showers and drizzle will continue on and off through the night.

Thursday

As low pressure moves further away from the Stateline it'll begin to take a little more of its moisture with it. However, increasing winds aloft will be moving down the western Great Lakes which could help fire off a few isolated showers with the heating of the day. Any showers that do develop will wane towards evening with perhaps some clearing late in the day.

Afternoon temperatures are expected to remain in the upper 50s, but a few spots could reach the low 60s, especially if we see some sunshine during the afternoon.

Friday

Drier air moving in Friday will help clear skies even further as high temperatures warm back into the low to mid 60s. Still not quite where they should be, but a step in the right direction. This high-pressure system will remain in place across the northern Great Lakes through the weekend, but we won't feel much warming from it.

As a trough of low pressure remains anchored across the Northeast our winds aloft will continue from the north in a somewhat active pattern in the jet stream. While the bulk of the storm systems will pass us to the south, we could see a few more clouds from time to time heading into the weekend.


Holiday weekend

The 'unofficial start to summer' won't necessarily feel like it as temperatures through the weekend remain in the mid-60s, nearly ten degrees below average. While most of the weekend is expected to stay dry there could be a few light rain showers towards the latter half, leading into Memorial Day itself. Even though temperatures will make their way out of the late season chill, we're still going to remain below average. The average high through the weekend should be in the mid-70s.

Any rain that does come down will be light with heavier rain showers, and accumulations, expected to remain south. But light showers from time to time could occur through Monday so keep that in mind if you're holiday weekend plans have you outside.

 

Gloomy, rainy weather continues

Low pressure sitting nearby will continue to have an influence on our weather pattern as we jump into the second half of the work week.

Beginning with this morning, low clouds, fog, and mist has allowed most Stateline locales to drop below 3 miles in visibility. Be sure to give yourself extra travel time this morning.  

Today features more of the same gloomy conditions from Tuesday, minus the potential for thunderstorms, heavy downpours and gusty winds. The nature of today's rainfall will be light and scattered, meaning dry hours will likely mix in and not everyone will get in on the opportunity for showers. However, I’d recommend having the umbrella with you just to be on the safe side. Afternoon highs will still be cool as they will struggle to reach the mid 50s.

Scattered showers will continue to fall through the evening commute and overnight hours before we finally turn dry by Thursday morning. Temperatures overnight will fall slowly as we look to keep a good deal of cloud cover overhead. Behind the departing storm system, forecast models show high pressure settling to our west, which will allow drier weather to push in for Thursday. While a stray shower cannot be ruled out here or there, most of us will stay dry with highs landing in the upper 50s.