Illinois on the brink of 200 tornado reports after recent outbreaks

Active Father's Day:

It's hard to believe that just last Friday, we were discussing about how Illinois had already surged past 160 tornado reports this year - a number that, on its own, already signaled an incredibly active season. Fast forward just a few days, and the atmosphere has only added to that mind-boggling total. 

Tornado Reports: 

After yesterday's tornado outbreak in central and southern Illinois, the statewide count is even higher, now sitting just a handful of reports shy of 200. 

What's even more staggering is how Illinois stacks up against the traditional severe weather hotspots. If you combine the total number of tornado reports from states like Nebraska, Kansas, Oklahoma, and Texas - they only edge out Illinois by four reports.

Less Active For Now:

Thankfully, Illinois finally gets a chance to catch its breath over the next few days. After an intense stretch of severe weather, the threat or highest potential will shift out of the region, moving into the Mid-Atlantic, as well as back west along the Rockies.  

Seasonably cool this week, summer-like heat returns next week

 Steady showers will clear out Sunday night, leaving us drier into Monday morning. While an isolated sprinkle cannot be completely ruled out Monday or Tuesday, most will remain dry as high temperatures reach the mid/upper 70s. Very similar temperatures are forecast through this entire week, with afternoon highs ranging between 76-77 every day through Saturday. Scattered thunderstorms will be possible Wednesday, but much of the remainder of the week looks drier.

However, the cool and comfortable pattern we have been in will not last much longer. There is an increasingly strong signal to see the summer-like pattern return beginning late next weekend. The long-term outlooks from the Climate Prediction Center support this, giving the Stateline a 50-60% chance to see above average temperatures between June 29th-July 5th. That would indicate more 80s and possible 90s on the way, more like what we come to expect in July. The warm-up also looks to arrive with much more humidity and storm chances as well. So, enjoy the 70s while they last!

Wet and cool Father's Day with steady rain showers

 Unfortunately, the forecast for Sunday is not nearly as pleasant as Saturday was with steady rain arriving by early afternoon. Rain will begin as early as 9-10AM for some of our Southwestern Counties and continue to spread Northeast through early afternoon. Southeast Wisconsin may not see rain start until after 12PM.

Steadier rain will be likely for everyone by early afternoon, with hourly rainfall rates near 0.25"/hr at times. A few rumbles of thunder will be possible as well, particularly in Southern portions of the area. While the heaviest rain will exit after 6PM, pockets of light to steady rain will persist into the night.

Temperatures will reach into the low 70s before/as rain starts but drop through the afternoon into the mid-60s as rain picks up in intensity. Winds will also pick up through the afternoon, gusting near 25-30 mph at times from the East.

Rainfall will add up much quicker for some compared to others. South of I-88 will see the highest rainfall totals, with some picking up between 1.0-1.5" or more. Between about I-88 and the IL/WI state line, you can expect between 0.5-1.0" of rain. Far NW Illinois and Southern Wisconsin may only see 0.25-0.5" of rain.

Illinois surpasses 160 tornadoes in 2026

It's been an incredibly active tornado season across the Illinois this year, with more than 160 preliminary tornado reports as of June 18th.

And given recent severe weather events, that number is likely still climbing. That total is 37 higher than all of last year and puts Illinois well ahead of the rest of the country, more than doubling Mississippi, which ranks second with 83 tornadoes. 

From early-season setups to multiple rounds of severe weather, the atmosphere has consistently favored storm development, fueling a prolonged stretch of frequent tornadic activity in recent years. And with the summer months still ahead, Illinois's tornado count will likely climb as we transition into M.C.S (mesoscale convective system) and Derecho season. 

Father’s Day Weekend: Sunshine first, then changes

Shower Chance Late:

Yesterday was about as good as it gets - a perfect 10 out of 10 with sunshine, comfortable temps, and a light westerly breeze. Today doesn't quite match that, but it's still solid - more like an 8.5 out of 10 as we look to stay dry for most of the day. However, a weak system diving in towards the evening will bring an increase in cloud cover and the chance for a few showers, possibly an isolated storm.   

Father's Day Weekend:

Father's Day weekend will have a great start. High pressure settles in Saturday, bringing plenty of sun and comfortable highs in the upper 70s. Sunday for Father's Day itself, looks quiet early on, but clouds will gradually increase as the day goes on, with chances building into the afternoon as a area of low pressure slides to our south. Temperatures will be a bit cooler, holding in the upper 60s.  

Sunday Severe?:

Thunderstorms will be possible, but the better ingredients for severe weather are expected to stay well to our south - roughly in the same areas that were impacted by Wednesday's tornadoes.  
 

Father's Day weekend: Seasonably cool with periodic rain

 This Father's Day weekend will not feature the heat and humidity we typically expect in mid-June, but scattered showers may be possible from time to time. High temperatures may get close to 80 degrees Friday and Saturday, but that is still below the average highs of low 80s that is typical for mid-June. Sunday will be even cooler with widespread rain and clouds.

Friday evening is not rain-free either. A few stray showers may be possible mainly after 6-7PM across the area. While rain will not fall very hard, it may be enough to dampen the ground and the grass where it falls. There is also a very limited chance for a stray rumble of thunder, maybe around 10% during the evening. Be sure to have an umbrella handy if you are outdoors!

While Saturday will be dry, Sunday will bring a much broader chance for shower and a few embedded storms. A large-scale low pressure system will track along Central Illinois, bringing a lot of moisture with it. While we are on the Northern end, widespread showers and even some thunderstorms will be likely starting Sunday morning, lasting through much of the day. All told, a few spots may get upwards of an inch or more of rain between Sunday and Sunday night!

If you have any outdoor plans for Father's Day weekend, Friday afternoon or Saturday will be your best windows for activities. Scattered rain chances will move in by Friday evening and then more widespread rain arrives Sunday. Happy Father's Day!

Severe potential fades across northern Illinois, quieter days ahead

Active Wednesday:

Yesterday's severe weather unfolded a bit differently than it could have, thanks in large part to a morning round of strong thunderstorms. 

This, like last Thursday, helped take the edge off the atmosphere across northern Illinois by overworking the air mass, limiting how unstable things could have become later in the day, ultimately pushing the more significant threat for severe weather to the south. While conditions were less favorable locally for widespread severe storms, the system still managed to produce one tornado in southern Wisconsin. Details on that tornado, including strength and exact path, will be evaluated in the coming day.  

Less Active Days Ahead 

In the wake of that system, we settle into a much quieter and more tranquil stretch of weather heading into the next couple of day. Partly cloudy skies will help make for a pleasant day overall, with a steady breeze out of the northwest keeping afternoon highs in check. Expect us to top out in the low 70s, still a good amount below late-June standards. While most of today stays dry, a weak system sliding in this evening could spark an isolated shower, but coverage remains limited and impacts minimal. 

Friday brings a subtle warm-up as winds shift more westerly, helping temperatures climb back into the upper 70s, much closer to where we should be for this time in June. Along with the warmer air, we'll also have a chance for a few scattered showers and storms during the afternoon. Coverage, like today, doesn't look to be widespread at this point.