Warm temps persist across northern Illinois; Elevated fire risk Wednesday

Weather Throwback: 

"False spring" gave us a gorgeous and record-breaking President's Day as temperatures area-wide surged into the upper 60s. Rockford's Airport wound up with a high of 66 degrees, which crushed our previous record high of 57 degrees from 1921. Though unseasonably warm temperatures are here to stay for a few more days, it will be tough for us to see record warmth considering the 6-day stretch of record highs Rockford saw back in 2017.    

Today's Forecast:  

We'll find ourselves back in the upper 50s as the entire area will spend a majority of the day under a blanket of mid to upper-level clouds. What will be the main driver for today's temperatures climb will be the organized southeast wind that will be in place. At times, gusts could approach 25 mph. Despite the expansive cloud cover, most of the day will be dry, though expect the opportunity for rain showers to go up as we enter the evening hours.  

Next Rain Chance: 

As a warm front lifts northward, a scattered batch of showers will tag along with it. Once the front is to our north, winds will turn back to the southwest, keeping  temperatures warm. We should stay close to the 50 degree mark into Wednesday. The associated cold front will then pass through during the early stages of tomorrow morning. The chance is low but there could be an additional shower or an isolated thunderstorm as the front sweeps through. 

Elevated Fire Risk Wednesday: 

From there, the air mass will quickly dry out for Wednesday, allowing temperatures to once again warm into the low 60s. But this warmup will come with a very strong west to southwesterly wind, with gusts pushing 40 mph. This, along with the warm and dry conditions will likely to elevate the fire risk for many across the Stateline. 

Record high reached, and surpassed, in northern Illinois Monday

 

Back-to-back 60 degree days, in the middle of February?! Yes, please! Sunday's high reached 61 degrees, which didn't quite reach the record of 67, but Monday afternoon we were able to soar well past the record. High temperatures Monday warmed into the mid and upper 60s, with Rockford's high reaching 66 degrees. This smashed the previous record for the 16th of February which was 57 degrees set back in 1921. We likely won't experience anymore record warmth this week, but the front half of the week will remain on the milder side, with a return back to reality by the end of the week.

According to the Chicago National Weather Service, the last time we had two 60 (plus) degree days in a row through this point in February was back on January 7th and 8th, 2008 and then again in 1944 on January 26th and 27th. 60 degree days during the months of January and February are somewhat unusual, occurring only once every 4-5 years.

For the rest of this evening, cloud cover will slowly be on the increase as the warm front that passed us this morning now begins to slowly sink back south into northern Illinois. There have been some clouds that have bubbled up along the boundary, especially in southwest Wisconsin and north-central Illinois. And from that, there could be a few sprinkles that try to develop in southern Wisconsin this evening. Otherwise, look for mostly cloudy skies and temperatures to fall into the upper 30s. Locally dense fog is also possible as the front moves through thanks to higher low-level moisture. This could lead to some travel issues early Tuesday morning.

While temperatures will remain well above average Tuesday afternoon the day won't be nearly as nice. Skies will stay partly sunny following some of the fog early in the morning. Afternoon highs will warm into the mid and upper 50s, but the low 50s are likely east and southeast of Rockford thanks to a southeast breeze. Tuesday afternoon will be dry, but another front will lift north by the evening which will bring in a chance for a few showers after sunset. As the front pulls through, temperatures will remain warm - staying very close to 50 degrees overnight Tuesday.

As a cold front moves in from the west late Tuesday night there is a chance for a few rumbles of thunder during that time, but right now that chance is at about 20%. The air mass will quickly dry out for Wednesday, allowing temperatures to once again warm into the low 60s. But this warmup will come with gusty west winds, pushing relative humidity values down below 30 percent for the afternoon. The warm, dry, and windy conditions for Wednesday are likely to elevate the fire risk for many across northern Illinois and southern Wisconsin. 

Record warmth spills into Northern Illinois as "false spring" continues

Temperature Comparison: 

The "False spring" season is well underway as we've added a few more 50° days and even Rockford's first 60° to the 2026 temperature count. Up until this point last year, the Rockford Airport had yet to see a 60° day and even had less 50° days. 

Record Warmth: 

60s are back in the forecast this afternoon and will likely result in record warmth. Rockford's record high is 57° from 1921 but with the way things are shaping up, we should reach 62° this afternoon. Of course, today's record warmth comes with a good deal of sun but also a gusty wind. Winds will be out of the southwest, gusting up to 30 mph.   

Rain Chances Arrive: 

Clouds will move back in tonight as the warm front sinks back south near the Stateline. This will also bring the risk for patchy dense fog and limit tonight's temperature drop to the upper 30s. Cloud hangs tight for Tuesday in a mostly cloudy fashion and winds will be breezy. This time, flow will be out of the southeast, resulting in mild temperatures in the mid 50s. It won't be close to our record high for February 17th as that is 66° from 2017.   

Forecast models then show an area of low pressure swinging across the Midwest and spiraling towards Lake Superior Tuesday evening. With it will come the scattered chance for showers as well as the possibility for a storm into Wednesday morning. Coverage of this upcoming rain chance will not be high, and only up to a quarter inch may come down in any given location. Temperatures may remain in the upper 40s or warmer all of Tuesday night. 

Breezy few days with record warmth likely Monday

 Under bright sunshine, Sunday afternoon saw temperatures warm into the 60s, including a high of 61 in Rockford! While not quite a record high, we will likely see a broken record with Monday's high temperature.

The milder air lately has not come with much wind, but that will change over the next few days. A series of low pressure systems will begin to increase winds locally Monday morning. By the afternoon, West-Southwest gusts could reach 20-30 mph. Winds will flip to the Southeast Tuesday as a frontal boundary pushes across the area. Behind the low pressure Wednesday, winds will turn Westerly and increase to 25-35 mph gusts.

The more West-Southwest wind Monday will allow for temperatures to surge near or above 60 degrees again despite the added cloud cover. This will more than likely break the record high for February 16th, which is currently 57° set in 1921.

Monday night into Tuesday will feature a cold front sliding in from the North before stalling out overhead overnight. This stationary boundary may produce some areas of fog which could carry over into Tuesday morning. The front will only pull back North of the region Tuesday evening, so we will remain in the 50s for Tuesday afternoon.

Spotty showers will accompany a passing low pressure system Tuesday night, with even a low-end risk for some isolated thunderstorms. Coverage of rain will not be that high, and only up to a quarter inch may come down in any given location. Temperatures may remain in the upper 40s or warmer all of Tuesday night.

The combination of strong winds, another warm day, and much drier air Wednesday will result in an elevated fire risk for the afternoon in particular. Dew point temperatures will drop into the 20s Wednesday afternoon, resulting in low relative humidity. Avoid outdoor burning Wednesday as fires may be able to spread very quickly.

Spring like temperatures continue into the middle of the week

Over the past week we've seen temperatures consistently above average for the last 6 days and this trend only looks to continue with temperatures into the 60's likely! This has been happily welcomed for us across the region as the end of January was quite the opposite. Today will be very similar to yesterday however thanks to consistent sunshine we will see our temperatures rise into the upper 50's this afternoon!

Into the next three days temperatures only look to rise as continued sunshine into tomorrow will allow us to make a run at our first 60° day of the year with similar chances likely into Wednesday. We will experience a brief cooldown though on Tuesday as our next low-pressure system tracks through. As of now the warm front with this system looks to stay just off to our south keeping us in the 50's, but along and ahead of the warm front rain showers will be possible late Tuesday and into Wednesday morning. This warm front will then lift to our north into Wednesday bringing temperatures back near 60° once again!

As we move into the end of the week another low-pressure system will develop to our west on Thursday however with this system looks to track overhead or just to our south allowing for colder air to move in behind. Behind this system temperatures are expected to drop back near average and possibly slightly below average back into the 30's. Unfortunately, this "False Spring" we've had looks to end by the end of the week. 

More mild days ahead, including record warmth

 It was another mild day Saturday with filtered sunshine as temperatures reached into the low 50s for most. Clouds will thin out overnight, allowing sunshine to dominate the sky for Sunday afternoon. Temperatures will soar well into the 50s as a result. Our forecast high is 57 for Sunday afternoon. This comes despite a Northwest wind, due to the broad region of milder air stretching all the way into the Northern Plains.

Monday will see another upward swing in temperatures with a more Southwest wind, pushing afternoon highs near 60 degrees for many! Rockford is likely to break a record high as the current record is 57 degrees, set back in 1921.

A cold front Monday evening will bring us back into the 30s for Tuesday morning, and the position of the front will play a huge role in temperature for Tuesday afternoon. If the front remains South of the area, we could realistically stay in the 40s all afternoon. If the front surges well North of us, 60s would be possible. For now, I think the front will not lift through the area until late evening, which may keep us in the low 50s or cooler through the evening.

A strong surface low pressure system will develop along that front, sliding our way and North of the area Tuesday into Wednesday. This will bring scattered rain showers our direction Tuesday evening into Wednesday morning before drier air wraps in Wednesday afternoon. All told, a few spots may be able to pick up a couple tenths of an inch of rain, but the steadiest precipitation will remain mostly North of the area. Another system will follow on the heels of this one, arriving Thursday evening.

Warm temperatures continue into Valentine's Day weekend

 

Our comfortable stretch of upper 40's and 50's looks to continue as we head through today and into next week! Above average temperatures look to stick around not only through the week but even into the middle of next week. For those heading out for Valentine's Day today you won't need to bundle up much thanks to temperatures reaching into the low to mid 40's today!

Temperatures only look to rise the next two days as well as plenty of sunshine sticking around the next couple of days. It'll be a great weekend to get outside enjoy a walk or run or maybe even start on some very early season yard work!

Heading into the middle of the week, precipitation chances will become a bit higher especially towards Tuesday night as our next low-pressure system tracks through. With this low-pressure system, a warm front will accompany which depending on how north this front lifts, we may see slightly cooler temperatures Tuesday. However, that won't last long as on Wednesday we may make a run at our first 60° day of the year!