Dry pattern continues through weekend, turning active next week

 The mild pattern will persist through much of the next week, with several days seeing high temperatures reach into the 50s! But that does not come with many chances for precipitation until we get into the middle of next week, when a more active pattern gets started. Little to no precipitation is expected through early next Tuesday.

A series of low-pressure systems will pass through the region beginning mid-week, with the first arriving Tuesday night into Wednesday. This will bring some widespread rain, with most of the accumulating precipitation tracking just North of the area. The next system will arrive between Thursday and Friday, which could bring a chance for a wintry mix with some colder air tracking in with it.

In general, the pattern looks to stay active with a greater chance to see above average precipitation into the end of February. This outlook from the Climate Prediction Center gives us a slight lean toward seeing more precipitation than normal between the 18th and 22nd of February.

Love is in the air… and so is spring: Northern Illinois warms up for valentine’s weekend

Thursday's Forecast: 

Thursday starts with cloud cover as a weak system tracks across the Midwest. Forecast models remained consistent over the past few days, leaving the highest precipitation chance to our west and southwest across eastern Iowa and western Illinois. Cloud cover will then gradually decrease after midday, giving us some afternoon sunshine. That, along with a southeasterly wind will result in Rockford's fourth consecutive day with afternoon highs in the 40s.  

"False Spring Arrives": 

From there, "false spring continues". So much so that we enter a territory that we haven't entered since the middle of January, the 50s. The combination of partial sunshine and a light southwesterly wind will push highs in the low 50s Friday afternoon. Overnight lows will also trend upward, dropping into the upper 20s tonight, then low 30s Friday night. 

Valentine's Day/President's Day weekend will also be spent in the 50s, though clouds will increase Saturday night into Sunday as an area of low pressure slides to our south. Considering how far south the track of the surface low has trended, rain chances this weekend remain very low. Hopping back into the temperature discussion, Saturday and Sunday's high of 53° lands exactly 20° above mid-February standards.

Warmth Continues: 

A secondary and slightly more potent storm system aims to lift into the central plains Monday. In doing so, it will drag a warm front through the region, allowing "false spring" to continue. Afternoon highs for the first half of the week will also end up 20° above average in the low 50s. Wednesday's warm up will mainly depend on the low's placement as it moves across the western Great Lakes.

Limited precipitation chances through the weekend

 
Sun-filled skies greeted us once again Wednesday afternoon allowing temperatures to warm into the low to mid 40s, with Rockford's high reaching 44 degrees. Wednesday was the third day in a row where the temperature climbed to 40 degrees, or higher. And the stretch of spring-like weather is expected to continue through the rest of the week and into the weekend. And outside of a slight chance for some light rain mid-day Thursday, our precipitation chances remain fairly limited.

High pressure will hold strong over the Great Lakes Wednesday evening as cloud cover slowly increases from the west. This will turn our skies mostly cloudy with temperatures falling into the mid and upper 20s.

A quick upper-level disturbance will move through the Midwest Thursday morning bringing with it a slight chance for precipitation across northwest Illinois through early afternoon, but only around 10-20 percent. Temperatures will warm into the low 40s for the afternoon.

High pressure builds back in for the weekend which will help temperatures warm into the 50s, mid-50s potentially Saturday and Sunday as a cut-off low spins across the Gulf states. The majority of this moisture should remain south of the immediate area but could come as close to us as I-80 late Saturday night. If so, there could be a chance for some mixed precipitation or wet snow, especially to the south, through Sunday morning. The chance for that precipitation making it this far north remains fairly low, so for now the forecast will stay dry. The beginning of next week will start off mostly dry, but our pattern turns a little more active which could bring us several opportunities for precipitation by the end of next week and into the weekend.

Hints of spring: Northern Illinois could see a multi‑day stretch of 50s

Even though Tuesday featured a cool northwesterly wind, it felt nice as the Rockford Airport came in with highs in the upper 40s. That was our third day this month with highs in the 40s. 

 

 

  

We take a small step backward in the temperature department as the colder air from yesterday's frontal passage sits overhead. Still, we can expect afternoon highs to land in the low 40s and since we have an area of high pressure sitting nearby, plenty of sunshine is on the table from start to finish.

 

  

Forecast models show clouds increasing overnight as a very weak system dives into the plains. If there was any chance for precipitation, it would be during the morning hours Thursday and more to the south and west of the Stateline. At this moment, we'll keep a very small chance with skies remaining mostly cloudy as we go into the afternoon. High temperatures should once again peak in the low 40s. 

 

So far in 2026, Rockford has observed three 50° days and they have all occurred in January. Two of them breaking a previous record high. 

 

 

  

We will likely add to that tally this weekend and next week as northern Illinois could see multiple days with highs in the 50s. Ridging over the central plains will supply us with this next batch of milder air, pushing afternoon highs into the 50s possibly Friday, but more than likely over the weekend. Overnight lows will end up closer to Rockford's average highs, dropping into the low 30s Saturday night and Sunday night, then into the upper 30s Monday night. 

Mild stretch continues with zero signs of Arctic chill returning

Despite high clouds floating overhead, Monday saw a quick climb in temperatures thanks to an organized and warm wind out of the south. 

That warm wind continues this morning as we await the arrival of our next cold front, leaving temperatures in the low to mid 30s. Forecast models bring said cold front through before mid-morning, swapping surface winds to the northwest.  

Despite the cooler winds, partial sunshine will allow temperatures to climb into the low 40s for the third time this month. The first being last Friday (42° ) and of course we had 40° weather yesterday. Winds could gust up to 30 mph at times. 

Behind the departing cold front, high pressure settles into the central plains, allowing dry but also mild conditions to continue into the middle of the work week. Expect afternoon highs to peak in the upper 30s under a partly to mostly cloudy sky.  

The next chance for precipitation will arrive Thursday morning into early Thursday afternoon as a weak storm system tracks into the Midwest. Drier air from this area of high pressure may limit the intensity and eastward progression of whatever precipitation forms ahead of the surface low . However, we may see a few light snow showers or even a light rain/snow mix before clearing out Friday morning. If we were to see any sticking snow, it wouldn't amount to much more than a few tenths of an inch.

From there, weather headlines will quickly turn back to mild temperatures. Afternoon highs are expected to climb back into the low 40s Friday, then into the mid 40s both Saturday and Sunday. Precipitation chances remain quite low, though a very slim chance for rain exists late Saturday into Sunday. 

Milder air flows across northern Illinois as cold air remains locked up north

 

We continue to climb from the cold that has held strong across northern Illinois and southern Wisconsin the last few weeks. Temperatures Monday afternoon warmed into the upper 30s and low 40s, with Rockford's high reaching 41 degrees, our second 40 degree day this month (last on was 42 on Friday).

Cloud cover continues to roll in ahead of a warm front currently draped across the Midwest. Behind the front temperatures have warmed into the 50s and 60s over parts of Iowa, and the 70s out in the Plains! While it won't get *that* warm locally, above average temperatures are expected through the week.

For the rest of Monday night skies will remain mostly cloudy as a warm front draws closer to the Stateline. We may see a sprinkle or two from the front, but most will remain dry. It will, however, keep our temperatures mild overnight with most locations remaining in the 30s. The warmer start will help temperatures rise back into the low 40s, despite a cold front sweeping through first thing Tuesday morning.

Northwest winds will increase, gusting at times 25-30 mph. This will keep chills in the 20s during the morning and then low to mid 30s for the afternoon. Skies will turn partly cloudy for the afternoon as high pressure builds in across the Midwest and Plains, paving the way for a mostly sunny sky Wednesday.

Temperatures will warm into the upper 30s, close to 40 degrees Wednesday afternoon. Drier air from high pressure will still be somewhat in control as a weak low-pressure system moves in across the Midwest. We may see a few light snow showers from this low mid-day Thursday before clearing out Friday morning. If we were to see any sticking snow, it wouldn't amount to much more than a few tenths of an inch. 

Northern Illinois continues its escape from January’s brutal deep freeze

A cold front Saturday morning put a brief hold on our mild stretch, limiting afternoon highs to the upper 20s Saturday, then low 30s Sunday. 

 

 

  

That brief hold ends today as winds stay warm ahead of our next warm front/cold front. Despite clouds being a bit more widespread today, afternoon highs will end up back in the low 40s. There could be a sprinkle or two late tonight as said cold front pushes in from the west. Otherwise, we can expect cloud cover to decrease as we go into Tuesday afternoon, allowing highs peaking in the low 40s.  

Precipitation from midweek on remain quite low as a high pressure system glides and stall over the Great Lakes region. Forecast models keep this high stagnant from Thursday to Sunday, which limits the amount of moisture that reaches the Stateline. 

 

  

There's a slim chance with a disturbance Thursday and then again on Saturday. However, precipitation amounts are highest across portion of Missouri as well as the Tennessee Valley. High temperatures during this stretch briefly cool back into the mid 30s by Thursday afternoon, but should recover back into the low 40s by the weekend.