Rain, wind, then frost? The Stateline's weather roller coaster continues

Unsettled Election Day:

Tuesday turned out to be a rather unsettled day across the Stateline, bringing everything from periods of rain to gusty winds. Most locations picked up between a quarter to a half inch of rain, providing some with a beneficial rainfall. Adding to the soggy weather were brisk southerly winds, which gusted from 30 to 35 mph at times. This made for an interesting drive and walk to the polls for those who went. 

Remaining Breezy:

While conditions won't be nearly as soggy today, we do hold on to quite a bit of cloud cover as well as those gusty winds. Winds will shift to the southwest today and tonight, frequently gusting up to 30 mph during the daytime before easing slightly to 25 mph tonight into Thursday morning.   

Another wind shift arrives Thursday afternoon as a secondary cold front sweeps through the area, turning winds to the northwest. At times, winds could still be as high as 25 mph, leaving afternoon highs in the mid 50s. Low pressure will continue to spiral nearby as it exits into the Great Lakes, keeping a chance for a few passing showers. The best opportunity today will be to our northwest, then shifting to the local area during the day Thursday. 

Cooler Nights Ahead:

Cooler air arriving on the backside of Thursday's cold front and the departing low-pressure system will set the stage for several chilly nights. The coldest period appears to be Friday night into Saturday morning, when temperatures could, keyword COULD, flirt with the upper 20s in some locations. If readings fall that low, area of frost will certainly be a concern, especially in low-lying and open areas. Saturday night and Sunday night won't be as chilly.

Election Day rainfall update

10:35pm: Steady and heavy rainfall is moving into northern Illinois and will continue through about Midnight, with a few showers lasting until 2am. An additional 0.25-0.5 inches can be expected - with a few spots between 0.5-0.75 inches.

8:45pm: Steady rain is beginning to move up through the I-39 corridor, lifting south to north late Tuesday evening. These showers will continue to expand across northern Illinois within the next 1-2 hours. There may still be some isolated thunder with any of the taller rain showers through 11pm.

6:30pm: A few showers continue to lift through northern Illinois and southern Wisconsin this evening, but not quite as heavy as earlier in the afternoon.

A line of showers approaching west-central Illinois will be capable of producing some heavy downpours, along with a couple of isolated thunderstorms. Main area of impact for those storms will be near Carroll and Whiteside counties over the next hour. We should see rain coverage increase again after 8pm/9pm

3:30pm: Scattered showers continue to come down across the Stateline, but a little less in coverage than just a couple hours ago. As moisture continues to lift north ahead of low pressure, currently moving towards south-central Iowa, scattered showers will continue into the evening. The threat for thunderstorms remains the highest west of the Mississippi River where there is slightly higher instability. This is also the area that will remain closer to the center of the low. A few rumbles of thunder cannot be ruled out locally this evening, but we are not looking at any severe threat

1:30pm: Widespread rain continues to come down across northern Illinois and southern Wisconsin this afternoon. Embedded within have been a few pockets of heavier rain.

These steady rain showers will remain fairly persistent through much of the afternoon and evening, adding up at least another quarter to three quarters of an inch of rain. As the surface low moves a little closer this evening, I wouldn't be surprised to hear a

few rumbles of thunder, but any risk for severe weather remains low. Below are some of the rainfall totals as of Midnight, up through 1pm. 

Timing out the rain: What to expect on Election Day

Storm Reports:

Despite the heightened risk for strong to severe storms yesterday, a more linear storm mode limited the full potential of the highly unstable atmosphere that was in place. In the end, there were 7 wind reports and 4 hail reports across the plains. Today, the severe risk is lower but not zero, with the greatest threat remaining west and southwest of the Quad Cities/Davenport area where the Storm Prediction Center has a level 1 of 5 outlined. 

Rain Chances Locally:

Locally, thunderstorm chances remain low and any storms that do develop are expected to stay below severe limits. A stray rumble of thunder cannot be ruled out, but most of what passes through the area will be in the form of scattered showers. Combined with a steady southeast wind, temperatures gradually climb into the upper 60s this afternoon. At times, winds could gust up to 35 mph. 

A few heavy downpours will be possible overnight as the area of low pressure lifts into Minnesota, allowing deeper moisture to stream into the region. As the low begins to occlude, however, the steadiest rainfall will shift north and west, as well as east into the Great Lakes and Ohio Valley regions. This will allow rain chances to decrease into Wednesday morning, with showers becoming widely scattered and remaining that way through much of the day. 

Rainfall totals for most locations should end up between 0.25" to .50", though a few isolated spots could pick up as much as 0.75". Clouds will be slow to break on Wednesday as the occluded storm system spins over Minnesota. That, along with a gusty southwest wind will help keep temperatures relatively mild for the middle of the work week, leaving most around the 60-degree mark. 

Long-Term Outlook:

After today, rain chances take a step back as our weather pattern simmers down. In fact, the latest from the Climate Prediction Center continue to favor a drier pattern heading into the middle of November, with below-average precipitation becoming increasingly likely for northern Illinois and southern Wisconsin. At the same time, temperature outlooks indicated that a milder-than-normal trend is likely to tag along with the dry conditions.  

Election Day forecast

 

If you plan on heading to the polls at any point during the day Tuesday, make sure you grab the jacket and/or umbrella because scattered rain showers - with even a few rumbles of thunder - are expected throughout the day. While not a total washout, there will be some points of heavier rainfall throughout the morning, and then into the late afternoon and evening.

For the rest of Monday night - areas of steady drizzle and mist will continue to occur as a line of steadier showers extends from central Wisconsin back through northwest Illinois. Most of this activity will travel to the north/northeast, with little progress to the east overnight. Temperatures have warmed as of 10pm, with most locations now in the low 60s. Look for these numbers to climb into the mid-60s by sunrise Tuesday.

Tuesday morning may see a lull in accumulating precipitation as the steady rain that fell over far northwest Illinois (mainly around Jo Daviess County) briefly comes to an end. But there will still be some drizzle and mist, so expect a damp and wet start to the day. As forcing increasing with an incoming low-pressure system we should begin to see an increase in showers from west to east mid-morning, continuing into the afternoon and evening. With limited instability locally our thunder chances should remain low, but not zero, and we could hear a few rumbles of thunder into the afternoon and evening. Rainfall totals will be highest across Jo Daviess County Tuesday morning, with an additional 0.25-0.75 inches coming down by Tuesday night area wide.

As you head out the door Tuesday make sure you have the rain jacket and/or umbrella. Southerly winds will be gusty from time to time with a few gusts approaching 30 mph, so the umbrella may be hard to hold throughout the day.

And be careful, too, while driving. The combination of the rain and wet leaves on the roads will make things a little extra slick. While there are other factors that impact your stopping distance -

such as traction and type of vehicle - wet leaves on the road give us less friction between the tires and roadway (think of how ice works) and that could not only increase your stopping distance but also cause you to lose traction a little easier while driving.   

Rain chances on the rise as next big system pushes in

Next Big Storm System:

Our next big storm system will begin to take shape over the next few days, bringing big changes to the weather pattern across northern Illinois. As an area of low pressure organizes and lifts to our north and west, the pressure gradient at the surface will tighten across the Midwest, leading to a stretch of breezy, but mild conditions for the start of the week. 

Timing Out The Impacts:

Southerly winds will not only keep temperatures well-above average, but will also help transport increasing moisture northward into the region. That moisture, combined with several disturbances rotating around the incoming storm system will result in an increasing chance for showers starting late today. 

 

Showers late today, tonight, and through the first half of Tuesday will be scattered. It won't be until Tuesday afternoon and evening where we will see our best chance for not only steady showers, but maybe a rumble of thunder or two. It's safe to say you'll want to keep an umbrella nearby from start to finish, as this will be the wettest day of this stretch. 

 

  

Low pressure is expected to linger nearby through the middle of the work week, keeping conditions both breezy and unsettled across the Stateline. As a result, we'll continue to carry a slight chance for a few passing showers, though Wednesday will likely have more dry time mixing in with the highest moisture being focused to the east of the region. 

October 2026 joins Rockford's warmest on record

A Look Back at October:

October 2026 will go down as one of Rockford's warmest Octobers on record. The average temperature at the Rockford Airport finished at 60.8°, ranking as the 9th warmest on record. Warmth wasn't confined to just a few days either as a remarkable 17 of October's 31 days recorded high temperatures of 70° or warmer, ranking it the 8th most 70° days in October since records began in 1905. 

Even overnight temperatures were unusually mild, with just one freezing temperature recorded all month, a low of 31° on October 17th. A look at the record books shows that has only happened 6 other times at the Rockford Airport, 1931, 1940, 1956, 1963, 2017, and 2021. Taken together, the abundance of 70° afternoon, lack of freezing night, and consistently above-average temperatures made this October feel more like September. 

First Week of November:

The warmth isn't finished just because the calendar has flipped to November. A developing area of low pressure tracking to our north and west will place the region under a robust southerly to southeasterly flow through the first half of the week. That persistent wind will continue to transport mild air into the area, pushing temperatures well-above early-November standards. Highs today will wind up in the low 60s, then low 70s for Tuesday afternoon.   

 

 

 

 
 

Drizzle possible through Monday, steadier rain Tuesday and Wednesday

 Rainfall potential will increase over the coming days as a broader low pressure system approaches the area. Sunday night and Monday will mainly feature isolated to scattered patches of light drizzle, if any rain at all. But steadier showers and higher coverage of rain will arrive Monday night through Tuesday night. While there may be occasional pockets of dry time Tuesday, they will be few and far between.

We will remain unseasonably mild over this stretch with a steady Southerly wind, especially Monday night into Tuesday. A few wind gusts may even reach 30-35 mph at times. The steadier rain showers will hold off until Monday evening, with waves of rain then continuing through the night.

A few rumbles of thunder may also be possible within some of the heavier bursts of rain, particularly Tuesday afternoon and evening. While severe weather is not expected, some of the showers may be accompanied by gusty winds of 35+ mph. Rain will slowly taper off Tuesday night, but additional showers may wrap around the system into Wednesday.

All told, most in the Stateline will see around a half inch of rain between Monday and Wednesday. There is potential for a few spots to pick up over 1" of rainfall, where multiple waves of steadier showers pass through over the same locations over and over. Unsettled weather with possibly a few lingering showers will remain possible into Thursday and maybe Friday, as afternoon highs drop back into the 50s.