It was a big shock to the system with the cold wind Friday afternoon as afternoon temperatures only rebounded to the mid-30s. Officially, Friday's high will go down as 41 degrees, but that was reached not long after midnight.
This weekend will be far cooler than recent temperature trends with afternoon highs near or below freezing. We will keep the breeze and cloud cover around, likely preventing temperatures from reaching 30° Sunday afternoon. Wind chills will make it feel closer to the low 20s Saturday afternoon, and teens or cooler for Sunday.
A few weaker systems will pass through over the weekend, bringing a slim chance for flurries from time to time. The best window will be Saturday night into early Sunday morning. Any snow that does come down will likely not accumulate locally but could cause a few slick spots. Sunday afternoon will end up dry, but mostly cloudy and windy.
Wind gusts could push 25 mph from the West-Northwest on Saturday, and nearly 30 mph from the Northwest Sunday. Winds will ease Sunday night into Monday as high pressure takes hold, but the cold breeze will stick with us this weekend. Wind chills may feel as low as the single digits, particularly Saturday night into early Sunday.
Snow associated with the same low pressure system that produced Thursday evening's rain will rotate into the area as the morning goes on. Some of these snow showers will be heavier than other, with the highest coverage northwest of Rockford.
Pavement temperatures will still be too warm for icy spots to develop. However, a WIND ADVISORY will go into effect area-wide around the start of this morning's commute. This mean we'll be contending with strong westerly winds at the same time the snow showers are pivoting through the region. These conditions may lead to wind-whipped snow showers and occasional fluctuations in visibility. The advisory is set to last until 4PM this afternoon.
Cloud cover and a decent breeze stick around for the upcoming weekend. With this cloud cover may come the chance for a scattered flurry or two. Otherwise, expect temperatures to drop below average, landing in the upper 20s by Sunday afternoon.
Summer turns to winter overnight as rain flips over to snow by Friday morning. We will see a lull in precipitation after 12AM as the low-pressure system passes directly overhead. This will result in some light drizzle as temperatures remain in the 40s through 3-4AM for most.
After 4AM, the low pressure will continue to slide out of the area, flipping things over to a mix or snow by early Friday morning. Some of these snow showers may be steady to heavy at times, with the highest coverage Northwest of Rockford. Snow will begin winding down after 12PM, eventually drying out by the afternoon.
Steadiest snow will remain mostly North and West of Rockford, where a few spots in Southwestern Wisconsin and far Northwestern Illinois may be able to pick up a couple inches of slushy accumulation mostly on grassy and elevated surfaces. A winter weather advisory is in place for Green County in Wisconsin and Jo Daviess County in Illinois through the early afternoon.
These snow showers will come with a strong wind. West/Northwest gusts may approach 45 mph at times Friday morning into the early afternoon. Any snow coming down during this time will significantly limit visibility and allow for some blowing and drifting concerns. A wind advisory will go into effect across all of Northern Illinois at 6AM and through the afternoon.
Apart from Wednesday's notably strong southwesterly wind, the combination of sunshine and 60° warmth made for another gorgeous afternoon.
As we move into Thursday, this is when we enter a slightly more active and cooler weather pattern. Most of the day Thursday will be dry, though we can expect clouds to increase early on. With the current track of our next low pressure system, surface flow will be out of the northeast, resulting in cooler high temperatures. Most locales will peak in the low to mid 50s. Still mild, but not as warm as yesterday.
In their latest round of outlooks, the Storm Prediction Center places the highest severe potential well south of the Stateline area. Areas east of St. Louis are under a level 2 Slight Risk for severe storms.
It's in these areas where the warm front will be the focal point for strong to severe storms, allowing all hazards to be on the table. Atmospheric energy will be higher as well as moisture levels. Locally, a level 1 Marginal Risk is in place for areas like Sterling, Dixon, Rochelle, DeKalb, and Amboy.
Shower and storm chances locally will be tied to the surface low itself and should begin to increase late in the afternoon into the evening. The biggest concern with any severe storm will be large hail.
As colder air wraps around the surface low, rain will turn to the rain/snow mix and then to all wet snow by the time we get into Friday morning. Given the warm past few days, Thursday's rain, and temperatures still only in the low 30s, accumulations will be kept to a minimum (maybe up to a half-inch). Friday's morning commute may be a bit slow with lingering snow showers and reduced visibility with winds picking up.
Cooler Moving Forward:
After today, it's back to reality as afternoon highs return to the 30s. Mid to upper 30s into the weekend with low 30s into early next week.
Each of the last 6 days has featured high temperatures well above average and even well into the 50s or 60s! Most of February has featured the milder pattern, including the last several days more than 20 degrees above average!
But all good things come to an end, as cooler air will filter back in by the weekend in a sharp reminder that it is still February. Afternoon highs will return back toward the 30s and much closer to average by the weekend, as a large pocket of colder air will settle overhead through much of next week.
As high pressure takes over Sunday, winds may be strong resulting in a wind chill factor. The coldest days in the near term will be Sunday and Monday with coldest air centered overhead. The wind direction most days will be generally out of the North, helping to keep us cooler.
We will gradually warm back up a bit toward the middle of next week as the next broad low-pressure system arrives between Tuesday and Wednesday. This could bring us a potential for more rain and storms, or snow showers depending on which side of the weather system we end up on. For now, a broader area of precipitation appears likely Tuesday night into Wednesday, with another drop in temperatures expected behind this system.
Strong low pressure to the north near the Wisconsin/Minnesota state line has been responsible for the winds this afternoon. But as the sun sets and we lose the mixing of the afternoon (stronger winds pulled down from aloft), winds will ease as low pressure weakens and pulls further to the north.
