Summer like warmth today accompanied by thunderstorm chances

 

Although we may have not reached our forecast high yesterday, it was still a very comfortable day with temperatures in the low 60's! However, today will blow yesterday out of the water in terms of comfortability as certain points of the day may even feel hot outside! We'll reach into the upper 70's across the region this afternoon and combining that with mostly sunny skies, we should see at least a few spots hit 80° today.

With good always comes a little bad though, because of the summer like heat today we'll also have plenty of moisture and instability present in our atmosphere to support a few thunderstorms. However, an atmospheric cap will be in place through the day which will inhibit storms from forming during the daytime hours.

Our storm chances this evening will rely heavily on if we can break this "cap" or lid this evening. Multiple situations may occur later including the possibility of no storms developing! However, if a storm does develop, make sure to pay attention to watches and warnings as the Storm Prediction Center has outlined us in a Slight 2/5 risk this evening highlighting large hail as our primary threat.

The hail risks this evening has not only been increased in chances, but in their latest outlook the Storm Prediction Center added the "hash" or black outline to the outlook highlighting the potential of significant hail this evening. That means, if storms do form later on, the environment will have the potential to support storms capable of producing 2+ inch (egg-sized) which can cause significant damage! These storms may not hit till the overnight hours, so make sure to keep your cellphones on to make sure you can listen to watches or warnings that may be issued later. 

Storms possible Monday night and Tuesday, soaking rain mid-week

 A mild start to the day Monday will result in a very warm afternoon as temperatures push into the upper 70s and near 80 degrees in a few spots. That warmth also comes with substantial instability, or storm energy, to fuel potential thunderstorms beginning Monday night.

But that potential will not be tapped into right away because of a cap in the atmosphere. That cap will prevent storms from developing until at least late evening and could prevent storms from developing altogether. Best chances to break through this cap appear to be after 9-10PM and mainly across Southern Wisconsin.

Any storms that are able to break through the cap will have that instability to tap into. A few isolated storms could turn strong to severe as a result. The primary nighttime window of storms will promote a threat for mainly large hail, but gusty winds may also be possible. The Storm Prediction Center has placed the entire Stateline under a Level 1/5 risk for severe weather, indicating an isolated storm may be able to produce severe weather.

That cap will be much less of a problem with daytime heating on Tuesday pushing surface temperatures into the 70s again. A cold front will be the initiating point for storms Tuesday morning and afternoon. Similar to Monday night, we will have substantial instability to work with. The limiting factors Tuesday will be morning showers that could eat into the afternoon energy and the speed of the cold front which could arrive before the end of peak heating. The main threats this time around will be with wind and hail as the SPC has another Level 1/5 Marginal risk for Tuesday.

 

Monday and Tuesday is just the beginning of an active weather pattern through the next week ahead. Behind Tuesday's front there will be brief break in the widespread rain through Wednesday morning. But additional showers return Wednesday night. In total through the end of the week, several spots could see more than an inch of rainfall with pockets of likely higher totals where repeated rounds of storms pass through. There could be a risk for flooding Wednesday night into Thursday as that is when the heaviest rain may come down.

Unseasonable warmth with thunderstorm chances to start the week

 

Starting today, our temperatures will begin to slowly creep back average as high temperatures will be in the 60's and 70's over the next few days! That's in thanks to a consistent southwesterly breeze that will help to steadily improve temperatures along with an arriving low-pressure system by Tuesday morning that will also bring the possibility of a few thunderstorms.

The first of those chances will come late Monday night and into Tuesday morning as a weak disturbance moves overhead. With warm and humid conditions setting up for Monday, instability will gradually develop throughout the day however an atmospheric cap or "lid" will be in place keeping storm potential limited. If we can lift the cap later into the evening, the instability available would support a few isolated thunderstorms which would also carry the potential of producing hail, strong wind gusts, and heavy downpours.

As for Tuesday, if a few thunderstorms fire overnight, another round may still be possible with the disturbance aloft until the morning. However, the higher chances will come later into the afternoon as the arriving cold front may also spark off a few showers and thunderstorms.

Plenty of atmospheric instability is expected to setup both on Monday and Tuesday which will be the main fuel for thunderstorms if they do occur each day. Along with that, some dry air from our west will allow any thunderstorm to develop to carry the potential of large hail and will be capable of producing a damaging wind gust or two. As of now the Storm Prediction Center has the state line outlined in both a Day 2 and 3 Marginal Risk for the possibility of isolated severe thunderstorms. Expect chances to the forecast in the coming days, so make sure to keep an eye on the forecast!

Continued warmth fuels thunderstorm risk Monday night

 It's been a cooler stretch in the Stateline lately, but that's about to change in a big way next week! Starting Sunday, temperatures will rise back above average for the early part of the week. Highs push the mid-60s Sunday, then 70s Monday and Tuesday. Overnight lows will be very mild starting Sunday night, remaining in the 40s and 50s. That is, until our next cold front arrives.

Ahead of this front, we will see substantial instability, or storm energy, develop in the atmosphere Monday. The afternoon will be capped, preventing much if not all storm development. But overnight that cap will erode, allowing storms to form in Northern Illinois and Southern Wisconsin. Timing looks to be primarily after 10PM Monday.

A few of these storms may be capable of producing large hail and gusty winds. Any storms that produce 1" diameter hail or 60 mph wind gusts will reach severe limits. The Storm Prediction Center has placed Northern Illinois into Central Wisconsin under a Level 1/5 Marginal Risk for severe weather, indicating a few severe storms may be possible. Our primary threat will be with the large hail, but an isolated severe wind gust cannot be ruled out either.

Additional showers and storms will be possible along a passing cold front Tuesday as well, with a similar risk for some isolated severe storms. The best coverage will pass South and East of the area by Tuesday evening as cooler and drier air arrives through the course of the day. High temperatures Wednesday and Thursday will likely be back in the 40s.

Warming up this weekend with an elevated fire risk

 After a chilly and breezy Friday, this weekend will bring a steady rise in temperatures back above average. From the low 20s Saturday morning, the afternoon will see highs push back toward 50. The surface high pressure responsible for the chill will slide overhead and past us to the East by then, turning the winds back around to the South and Southwest. Sunday's high temperature will climb even higher, reaching into the low 60s.

That Southwest wind could gust toward 20-30 mph Saturday afternoon, and even higher across Iowa and Minnesota. But moisture will lag well behind the increase in winds. There is still some uncertainty about where dew point temperatures will be in the afternoon, but relative humidity percentages will be close to or below 30% much of the afternoon.

That combination of stronger winds and low humidity will develop a risk for brush fires. Dry vegetation will burn easily, and the stronger winds could allow for fires to spread rapidly. Avoid burning outdoors Saturday! Sunday could also bring some fire danger, but conditions will be slightly better to prevent widespread risk for brush fires.

The fire risk is only elevated locally but will reach critical levels to the West. Even drier air with stronger winds will result in extreme fire danger across much of the Plains including Minnesota and Iowa. A Red Flag Warning stretches from Minnesota to the Texas Panhandle, signifying the higher risk for brush fires. That's not to say our risk isn't significant, but the more extreme risk will stay just outside of our area.

Bundle up Friday—Milder days return this weekend

Temperature Tumble:

If you think it feels like a completely different season this morning, you're not imagining things. A strong cold front swept through the Stateline yesterday and flipped our weather pattern quickly. After starting the day in the upper 60s and low 70s, temperatures fell into the 50s by the afternoon, and now we are waking up to the 20s and 30s this morning.  

Chilly, Breezy Friday:

Cold air remains locked in place today and into the start of the weekend, though we remain dry. This will give us plenty of sun, however, an organized wind out of the north and northwest will cap afternoon highs in the mid 40s. Bright skies, but a definite bit in the air as we head into the weekend. High pressure will track over the region tonight, leaving us dry but also chilly with overnight lows in the low 20s. 

Weekend Outlook:

Changes are scheduled to spill in over the weekend, allowing this cool-down to be brief. High pressure will shift to our east by Saturday afternoon, allowing winds to turn to the southwest. That will help highs climb back around the 50-degree mark. The trend continues into Sunday, when even warmer air spills in and places highs in the low 60s. Expect this warm up to carry on into next week as forecast models place a warm front to the Stateline's north. 

Warmer, more active pattern begins next week into April

 A few isolated storms developed along a passing cold front Thursday afternoon and evening. Behind that cold front, temperatures drop as a pocket of cooler and drier air works through the area this weekend. But looking ahead to next week, another pattern change is right on its heels.

Stronger Southwesterly flow aloft will develop, which will work to rebound temperatures quickly back above average. This will also work to feed abundant moisture our direction, developing higher chances for rain and potentially some storms.

First with temperatures: The cooler air does not last long as we quickly flip the surface wind back to the Southwest, aiding to bring in the milder air mass into early and mid-next week. A Northerly wind will keep us in the mid-40s Friday, but 60s are back by Sunday with 70s to follow Monday and Tuesday.

While we should be dry through at least Monday afternoon, rain chances will begin to ramp up after Monday evening into Tuesday. Each wave that moves through will determine timing of the next, but we will be entering a more favorable pattern for widespread, soaking rainfalls beginning early next week. First chance for widespread rain begins Monday night into Tuesday.