Pattern change into early November

 

A pattern change towards the end of October and into the beginning of November could bring an increased chance for precipitation to the Stateline. With the lack of any significant cold air this would most likely come in the form of rain, with even the chance for a few rumbles of thunder.

But in the short-term, our skies will remain partly to mostly cloudy throughout the week as afternoon highs warm into the upper 60s. There could even be a few days with highs in the low 70s. We'll see a couple opportunities for rainfall throughout the week but nothing that looks to give us any significant rain into the upcoming weekend. The cold front that came through early Monday morning will lift back north as a warm front Tuesday, wobbling north and south throughout the week.

By early next week (beginning of November) a change in the jet stream pattern will allow for a stronger area of low pressure to develop to the west and northwest, over the Rockies and Plains. This low will move through the Plains and likely somewhere into the Mississippi Valley by Monday or Tuesday of next week, bringing with it rain and a few thunderstorms. Where exactly those storms develop will ultimately be determined on the path of the low, but it does look like our precipitation chances locally could be increasing starting next Monday.

The longer-range outlook from the Climate Prediction Center favors a higher probability for above average precipitation across much of the county the first week of November. To go along with that, there also is a higher probability of above average temperatures during that same time period. 

   

October's 70s keep hanging on as Halloween nears

Mild October:

October has certainly been the month of 70s. Of the 20 days that have finished above average so far this month, 13 have ended up with highs in the 70s, giving northern Illinois and southern Wisconsin an extended taste of fall warmth. It's a continuation of the trend we've seen since September, with above-average days outweighing below-average days.

Before October comes to an end, there's still a chance we'll squeeze out one of two more days with highs in the 70s. Today won't make that list, though, as an overnight cold front will knock temperatures down for the start of the work week. Expect a little patchy fog to start the day, but nothing widespread. Any fog that develops will give way to a mostly cloudy sky. That, combined with a cool northeast breeze will limit temperatures to the mid 60s. Even so, 65° remains above late-October standards. 

Continued Warmth:

Following today's brief cooldown, temperatures will rebound and hover near the 70-degree mark through the middle of the week, keeping the stretch of above-average weather right up to Halloween. Our next rain chance arrives late Wednesday night into Thursday as another cold front moves through. At this point in time, rain chances look scattered and spotty, meaning many location could end up with little to no rainfall before drier air returns Friday. 

Above average warmth continues last week of October

 

It has been a spectacular late October weekend with plenty of sunshine and temperatures warming into the low 70s Saturday and mid 70s Sunday. In fact, the majority of our weekends during the month of October have been fairly pleasant. And while the dry weather we've enjoyed as of late may be coming to an end, the warmth looks to be sticking around.

We've seen a few clouds move across the skies Sunday afternoon as southerly winds have given
temperatures a nice little boost into the mid-70s. But just to the northwest thicker cloud cover resides and eventually that'll move in our general direction overnight, and into Monday morning. This is along a cold front that'll slowly slide southeast through southern Wisconsin and northern Illinois Monday morning. Overall moisture will remain limited with the front but there may be just enough to squeeze out a few sprinkles during the afternoon. What you'll notice the most, though, will be the slightly cooler temperatures during the afternoon. High temperatures will warm to the mid-60s, about 10 degrees cooler than Sunday. But here's the thing, that's still above the average high of 58. So even though there is a drop in temperatures it isn't going to be significantly cooler. We'll miss out on the sunshine, however. And there could be some fog that follows right behind the front Monday morning.

The last week of October will feature a little more cloud cover than what we've had over the last week but blocking high pressure in the mid and upper levels of the atmosphere will help keep the warmth going through Halloween. In fact, temperatures could even warm back into the 70s by the middle to end of the week. Longer range outlooks from the Climate Prediction Center do favor higher probabilities for above average temperatures through Halloween and into the first week of

November. But with the warmth may also come a slightly higher chance for more storm systems to move across the middle of the country, with some of those impacting the Stateline. We'll have to wait and see how much of an impact those will have as precipitation chances could increase through the beginning of November. But if you're looking for more fall-like and cooler temperatures you may have to wait a little longer.

Weekend outlook: Looking good

 

We've had a pretty decent run of nice fall weather on the weekends this month and that looks to carry over into this upcoming weekend. After a stretch of 70-degree weather and full sunshine this week, the warmth will continue into the weekend. But clouds moving in Friday evening will thicken up, leading to partly sunny skies Saturday afternoon.

Blocking high pressure to the east and southeast of the Stateline will slow and stall the arrival of a cold front this weekend. Ahead of the front southerly winds will continue to usher in a warm air mass, but some of that warmth may be offset by a gradual increase in moisture which will lead to an increase in cloud cover, especially Saturday. With little forcing aloft that moisture will likely just show up in the form of clouds and not precipitation this weekend.

Afternoon highs will reach the low 70s Saturday with partly sunny skies and then low to mid 70s Sunday. As the ridge of high pressure begins to break down Sunday night it'll allow the cold front to slide through. This will turn winds to the northeast/east Monday bringing a drop in temperatures. But it won't be a big cool down and afternoon highs are likely to remain above average (average highs should be in the upper 50s). The current forecast high for Monday in 65 degrees.

Rain chances will remain limited as well with the cold front, likely leaving us with only mostly cloudy skies Monday and Tuesday afternoon. The front will then lift back north Wednesday which could very well bring us back into the 70s ahead of another cold front expected to move through at the end of next week.

Fall warmth rolls on: Dry days and 70s stick around

Autumn Warmth:

The transition from summer to fall has felt more like an extension of summer than a true autumn cooldown. Since the start of September, above-average days have dominated the forecast, outnumbering below-average days by a remarkable 33 to 14. That's not even close, and it's a trend that is set to continue here in northern Illinois and southern Wisconsin, with frequent stretches of warm afternoons keeping jackets on standby well into October.

"Big Bubble, No Trouble": 

That warmth is likely to stick around a while longer. The "big bubble, no trouble" area of high pressure parked over the plain will gradually expand into the Great Lakes over the next few days. As it does, it will keep storm systems and the more active jet stream to our north, allowing sunshine, dry conditions, and above-average temperatures to remain the dominate story here as we approach October's end. 

Look for patchy fog early this morning, but once it lifts, we'll be treated to plenty of sun for the rest of the day. Winds will remain light out of the southwest, helping temperatures climb well above where they should be for late October. Afternoon highs will reach the low 70s, running 10 to 12 degrees above average and making for another beautiful day. 

 

There could be some patchy fog to start the day off tomorrow. However, any fog that develops should quickly let up shortly after sunrise, giving way to another day filled with sunshine and perhaps a few fair-weather cumulus clouds. Much like today, a light southwest breeze will help temperatures climb above late-October standards, with afternoon highs once again reaching the low 70s. Enjoy!

 

How will the Super El Niño influence this winter in Northern Illinois?

 Chatter about this year's Super El Niño and how that will influence our winter season has been loud across social media. First off, we need to talk about what El Niño is. It is a weather pattern caused by warmer ocean waters off the coast of South America. When you hear "super" El Niño, that is referencing when sea surface temperatures in that region are 2.0°C above normal. This year, that intensity will be more than 3.0°C above normal, not necessarily that our local temperatures will be that far above average.

A typical El Niño pattern often results in milder than average temperatures, with around normal precipitation amounts. The warmer waters off the South America coastlines often push the Pacific jet stream along the Southern parts of the country, while the Polar jet takes a more Northwest track. This could limit the number and strength of big winter storms but may lead to an increase in quicker moving clipper systems from the Northwest.

How do our past El Niño winters compare to average? Meteorological winter runs from December 1st through February 28th, so all of these numbers below are averages across that time span. Typically, Rockford's normal winter will bring an average temperature of 24.2 degrees with 4.76" of measurable precipitation, and 29.2" of snowfall.

Two years in which the El Niño strength is comparable to this year were the winters of 1997-98 and 2015-16. In 1997-98, that winter saw a warmer than average trend with about normal precipitation and below average snowfall. The winter of 2015-16 saw another warm winter with below average snowfall. A simple analog forecast may come to a similar conclusion, but there are other factors that go into a winter forecast besides just what stage of El Niño we are seeing. But when El Niño is this strong, it may become the more dominant overarching pattern.

 

The National Oceanic and Atmospheric Association (NOAA) has put out their winter forecast, which closely resembles a typical El Niño pattern. Locally across the upper Midwest, we will likely see a warmer than average winter with equal chances of above average or below average precipitation. How that translates to individual snowfall events is not a direct correlation, so we will likely still see several instances of snow, potentially some heavy at times. But the frequency of those storms may be a bit lower compared to historical averages.

  

My personal forecast for Rockford this winter 2026-27 is that we will see above average temperatures, near average to just below average precipitation, and below average snowfall. But again, I want to emphasize that the 3.0°C above average you read about is NOT correlated exactly to what we will see locally.

It is also worth noting that Rockford has not seen a "typical" season of snowfall since the winter of 2020-21. Every winter since then has been below average, with the highest season of snowfall during that time receiving just below 20" of snow during the winter of 2023-24. Snow lovers may again have to wait another winter before we see abundant snowfall.

Super typhoon vs. major hurricane: What's the difference?

Did you know a super typhoon and a major hurricane are essentially the same type of storm? The biggest difference is where they occur across the world and the naming/classification being used. 

Hurricane: Atlantic and eastern/central Pacific Ocean

Typhoon: Western Pacific Ocean

Both are tropical cyclones that strengthen using the heat from the warm ocean waters. 

In the Atlantic and eastern Pacific basin, a major hurricane is any hurricane that reaches category 3, 4, or 5 status on the Saffir-Simpson Scale, with sustained winds of at least 111 mph. 

The Joint Typhoon Warning Center (JTWC) classifies a tropical cyclone as a super typhoon when its 1-minute sustained winds reach 150 mph or greater. Putting it into hurricane terms, a super typhoon would be equal to a strong category 4 hurricane.