Saturday, June 23, 2018

Lingering Floods and a Warm Up

It's been a while since we've seen a beautiful view like this one!  We finally got some dry time, seeing partly cloudy skies and cooler temperatures to start the weekend.  We keep these nice conditions for the evening, with temperatures in the low 70's.  However, there is a small disturbance out west that's moving towards us.

This disturbance is associated with a mid-level shortwave trough that's pushing eastward.  This has developed some light rain showers over in Iowa.  However, this system won't have a big impact on our area, only skimming the northwestern portion of the Stateline.  Jo Daviess, northwestern Carroll, and southern Wisconsin will get some quick rain showers this evening, but otherwise we stay dry.

Even though we're seeing a dry pattern this weekend, there are still a couple spots to be cautious of as flooding still remains.  These two areas are the Rock River in Byron, and the Pecatonica River in Shirland.  Both of these areas are still at Minor Flood Stage levels, so continue to be cautious if living near the river in these areas.

It will take some time before these areas get to see water levels below action stages.  The Rock River is not expected to see water levels below Action Stage until the end of next week.  It's currently at 12.5 feet, with the action stage being 10.5 feet.

As for the Pecatonica River out in Shirland, those river levels are currently at 12.4 feet, with their action stage being 11 feet.  By Tuesday afternoon, the water levels in this area should be back to normal, but continue to stay cautious until then as it'll be a slow decrease in water levels.

Another thing to keep in mind are the storm and rain chances that we have coming next week.  Chances for rain are coming up Monday night, Tuesday, and Thursday.  There is a chance that this could delay the time it takes for these two areas to see regular water levels again.  The biggest delay would be for Byron, as it's already going to take until the end of next week without including the extra rain, but still stay aware of this if living in Shirland.

Along with those storm chances next week, temperatures will be warming up quite a bit!  In fact, by the end of next week, we could be dealing with another heat wave as temperatures could climb into the 90's again.

Friday, June 22, 2018

Areas of Flooding and Incoming Dry Time

After all the rain we've had this week and today, we've officially broken the record for the wettest June in Rockford. So far this month we've had just over a foot of rain! The last record was set in 1993 with a total of 11.85" of rain in the Rockford area.  We've still got some rain moving through this evening, but much needed dry time is in store for us....and at the perfect time too!

This stacked low moving through Indiana is what's been bringing us these rain showers.  The fact that it's stacked is why these showers have actually been pushing westward today, as opposed to the usual eastward motion.

We'll continue seeing isolated showers for the evening, but most of us should be dry by around 10pm....and then we stay that way for the overnight and the weekend!  Temperatures will hit the upper 70's for Saturday under partly cloudy skies, with lower humidity as well.

Sunday will be a little warmer in the mid 80's under partly cloudy skies, but it'll be a little more humid. 

Even though dry time is around the corner, we've still got some areas we need to pay attention too.  Flood Warnings are still in play for the Rock River in Byron and the Pecatonica River in Shirland, both areas seeing water levels still slowly rising.

The Rock River will be cresting at 13 feet during the overnight at around 2am.  This means the Rock River will be at its Minor Flood Stage level in this area, and many areas along the river are already under water, so continue to be cautious if you live along the Rock River.

The Pecatonica River will be cresting at just over a foot by mid-day Saturday.  This area will also be seeing its Minor Flood Stage levels, so take precaution if you live in Shirland, especially if you live close to the Pecatonica River.

Both of these areas won't see water levels below flood stage until the middle of next week, so even though we stay dry this weekend, continue to stay cautious if living in these areas.

Rain chances do return once we get back into the work week, with storm chances on Monday and Tuesday.  Temperatures will also gradually warm up going through next week as well, possibly hitting the upper 80's by the end of the week.

Heavy Rain Leads to Rising Local Rivers

As you read in the last post, Thursday was a record breaking rainfall day for Rockford. With several days this week with heavy rain, our monthly rainfall total is getting closer and closer to that twelve inch mark.

With recent rains causing saturated ground soil, the additional rain we received was forced to run off and move into already swollen rivers. This has lead many of our local rivers to rise, with many entering a flood stage. Most will stay at either action stage or minor flooding, however there are points on both the Rock River, and Kishwaukee River that will crest this weekend at moderate flood stage. Saturday the Rock at Byron is forecast to crest at 14.2 feet, which is at moderate flood stage. The Kishwaukee at Belvidere is also forecast to be at moderate flood stage by Saturday, cresting at 10.6 feet. River waters will start to recede and go down early next week. If you plan to go out on local rivers this weekend use caution and pay attention to river levels.

Thursday, June 21, 2018

Record Rainfall Thursday - Close to Wettest June on Record

Heavy rain came down Thursday morning and afternoon over much of northern Illinois with anywhere from 1-3 inches recorded.  In Rockford, a total of 2.35 inches of rain fell, with more to come during the overnight.  That total breaks our daily rainfall record for the 20th of June.  The previous daily rainfall record was 2.16 inches set back in 1964.  Not only that, but we are very close to breaking the record for the wettest June on record.  So far for the month a total of 11.77 inches has fallen.  The record in 11.85 inches set back in 1993. 

Heavier rainfall is expected to develop during the overnight, but those heavy rain bands may be focused a little to the south of Rockford.  Another 1-2 inches of rain will be possible for some through Friday afternoon.

Flash Flood Watch Extened - Additional Heavy Rainfall Likely Late

The Flash Flood Watch has been extended for Winnebago, Boone, McHenry, Ogle, Lee and DeKalb counties until 10am Friday and through 7am for Stephenson, Jo Daviess, Carroll and Whiteside counties.  The watch was cancelled for southern Wisconsin.

Rainfall totals over north-central and northeast Illinois range anywhere from 1-3 inches, with an additional 1-2 inches possible through Friday morning.  Most of the heavy rain through Thursday afternoon occurred over Winnebago, Boone, McHenry, Ogle and DeKalb counties. 

While Rockford has had a little bit of a break in some of the heavier rainfall, a band of light to moderate rain arcs from northwest Illinois into DeKalb County.  A Flood Advisory has now been issued for Ogle, Lee and southern DeKalb counties until 9:15pm.  Urban and small stream flooding is possible in the advisory area, as well as with other creeks and streams throughout the Stateline.

Below are a list of the rainfall totals we've received so far:

(9:27:26 PM) nwsbot: Local Storm Report by NWS LOT: 5 S Rockford [Winnebago Co, IL] cocorahs reports HEAVY RAIN of M3.46 INCH at 06:30 PM CDT -- rainfall since approximately 8 am thursday.

(9:22:53 PM) nwsbot: Local Storm Report by NWS LOT: 5 S Winnebago [Ogle Co, IL] cocorahs reports HEAVY RAIN of M3.46 INCH at 06:30 PM CDT -- rainfall since approximately 8 am thursday.

(7:19:10 PM) nwsbot: Local Storm Report by NWS LOT: Somonauk [De Kalb Co, IL] trained spotter reports HEAVY RAIN of M2.40 INCH at 07:05 PM CDT -- rainfall for today. 2.10 inches between 605 and 705 pm.

(6:17:31 PM) nwsbot: Local Storm Report by NWS LOT: 4 SSE Loves Park [Winnebago Co, IL] trained spotter reports HEAVY RAIN of M1.30 INCH at 06:13 PM CDT -- since this morning. tulip and travertine.

(6:01:47 PM) nwsbot: Local Storm Report by NWS LOT: 2 S Winnebago [Winnebago Co, IL] broadcast media reports HEAVY RAIN of M1.03 INCH at 03:30 PM CDT -- wtvo studios.

(5:57:00 PM) nwsbot: Local Storm Report by NWS LOT: Roscoe [Winnebago Co, IL] broadcast media reports HEAVY RAIN of M1.25 INCH at 03:30 PM CDT -- relayed by wtvo Rockford.

(5:56:21 PM) nwsbot: Local Storm Report by NWS LOT: Stillman Valley [Ogle Co, IL] broadcast media reports HEAVY RAIN of M1.60 INCH at 03:30 PM CDT -- relayed by wtvo Rockford.

(5:55:35 PM) nwsbot: Local Storm Report by NWS LOT: Cherry Valley [Winnebago Co, IL] broadcast media reports HEAVY RAIN of M1.03 INCH at 03:30 PM CDT -- relayed by wtvo Rockford.

Flash Flood Watch

A Flash Flood Watch has been issued for northern Illinois and southern Wisconsin until 7am Friday morning. So far, light to steady rain has been lifting north, rotating around the low pressure system to our southwest. At times today, rain will turn more moderate to heavy with embedded thunderstorms also possible. Rain will move over areas that are already saturated from the heavy rain earlier this week, and rivers are already swollen. So, any additional rain will run off and into already high rivers. Make sure to stay weather aware today and tonight with rain totals still forecast between 1-2", with localized areas potentially getting 3-4".

Wednesday, June 20, 2018

Heavy Rain Threat Continues through Friday

The break from the rain Wednesday afternoon was short-lived as light to moderate rain moved back into northern Illinois and southern Wisconsin.  Scattered showers continue to move through west-central Illinois and will move in our direction throughout the night.  Rainfall Wednesday night into early Thursday will remain light and under half an inch, but heavier rainfall is possible throughout the day Thursday and Friday.

Low pressure moving into northwest Iowa will shift south of the Stateline, moving through central Illinois Thursday afternoon.  Several upper level disturbances will rotate around the low, moving into northern Illinois Thursday morning and afternoon.  Moisture levels in the atmosphere remain fairly high and this could lead to periods of heavy rainfall through Friday morning.  Rainfall totals could very well end up ranging from one to three inches between Wednesday night and Friday night.

While not as significant as the heavy rain that came down Monday evening, any additional rainfall will fall on already saturated ground and this could lead to flooding in some locations.

Another concern will be the potential for minor flooding along some of the local rivers and creeks.  Right now the Pecatonica River at Shirland, the Rock River at Byron and Kishwaukee River at Perryville are under a Flood Warning with the Pecatonica River at Freeport now under a Flood Watch and the Rock River near Rockford and Dixon under a Flood Advisory.  If the forecast amount of rain does occur, river flooding may be an issue heading into the weekend.