Scattered showers and a few storms possible this weekend

 While this weekend will not be a washout by any means, we will see higher potential for showers and storms the further into the weekend we get. This also comes with an increase in warmth, as temperatures will push from the 50s on Saturday to the 70s on Sunday.

Saturday will start on a cool but dry note with temperatures in the 30s and a few patches of fog. Clouds will begin to build in through the afternoon, with a few scattered showers developing after 1-2PM. There will be plenty of dry hours Saturday, as highest shower coverage looks to be across Wisconsin.

That coverage trend may continue into the night, with some elevated instability developing the potential for a few thunderstorms as well. Most will remain dry at any given hour, but there is about a 30% chance to see a stray shower or storm Saturday night.

Highest coverage of rain potential will arrive with some more widespread showers and a few storms into Sunday afternoon and evening. Embedded within may be a few thunderstorms, but the bulk of the activity will be regular rain. Higher potential for strong or even severe storms arrives next week, with a daily threat for severe weather nearby Monday, Tuesday, and Wednesday.

Severe potential across northern Illinois ramps up next week

Rain Tapering Off:

The heaviest rain from last night has moved out, but many are waking up to a wet start. Rainfall totals are in the .25" to 1" range, leaving roads damp ahead of the morning drive. A few lingering showers remain possible into the mid-morning hours.   

  

High pressure will quickly slide in behind the system, allowing skies to clear for the afternoon. While there will be a great deal of sun, temperatures will end up cooler than the past few days, with afternoon highs topping out in the upper 50s. The reason being, we'll see winds out of the northwest today. Skies overnight will end up staying clear of any trouble, allowing low temperatures to fall into the upper 30s. 

 

Weekend Outlook: 

As we head into the weekend, we'll continue to see rain chances pop up. Warmer air sweeping across the Midwest will help spark a few showers and storms Saturday morning, with some of that activity possibly drifting into the area later in the day. Thunderstorm chances will be a little bit higher Sunday. However, the lack of lift in the atmosphere may severely limit the potential for strong to severe storms. 

Next Week:

Tuesday and Wednesday continue to stand out as the days with the greatest severe potential locally. The Storm Prediction Center currently has the entire region under a 15% risk on Tuesday, with areas south of the Illinois-Wisconsin border under a 15% risk on Wednesday. A 15% risk is equivalent to a level 2 of 5 Slight Risk for severe weather. 

Now, there is still a lot to dive into when it comes to the timing of each individual wave. That has yet to be determined. But what we do know is that the main ingredients for active weather, including severe weather, will be very much present. Two of the primary severe ingredients include strong jet stream winds and instability, or storm energy. Both of those primary ingredients will be present early next week, all hazards to be on the table. Stay tuned for the latest and remain weather aware next week!

Active pattern with increased potential for severe weather next week

 Another stretch of active weather looks to develop next week as we get a pattern flip in the upper levels of the atmosphere. A Southwesterly direction of flow will develop, allowing a large area of the country to see an influx of warm and moist air. This will set the stage for a few rounds of severe weather toward the early half of next week.

While the timing of each individual wave is yet to be determined, the ingredients for active weather, including severe weather, will be there. Two of the primary ingredients include strong jet stream winds and instability, or storm energy. Both of those primary ingredients will be present early next week, fueling a multi-day risk for severe weather across the Plains and Midwest.

The Storm Prediction Center has already highlighted portions of the Stateline for severe weather potential for three straight days next week: Monday, Tuesday, and Wednesday. The 15% risk stands for 15% chance to see severe weather within 25 miles of a point, which is equivalent to a Level 2/5 Slight risk at this time. Each risk for severe weather will have its own individual timing and primary threats, but it is significant to see a multi-day risk like this more than a few days out. As confidence of each wave grows, be sure to stay tuned for the latest and remain weather aware next week!

Periods of heavy rain expected Thursday night

 

6:52PM UPDATE: Light to steady rain continues to move across northern Illinois this evening. Over the next hour some of the showers may begin to lighten up, but a steady and heavier rain will move in closer to 9pm.

Skies were sun-filled Thursday morning and most of Thursday afternoon following widely scattered rain showers late Wednesday night. But now the cloud cover has filled back in, leaving skies mostly cloudy to cloudy with rain beginning to move in from the west and southwest.

These showers are forming along a frontal boundary that'll slowly lift back to the north as weak low pressure moves in from the west. An increase in both moisture and wind will allow the rain to become widespread as it overspreads northern Illinois and southern Wisconsin by 6pm, with pockets of heavier rain expected by 8pm/9pm.

Totals are likely to range between half and three quarters of an inch, but there could be some locations that receive an inch, or more, by Friday morning. Following the heavy rain and flooding from late last week, there is a risk of more localized flooding with Thursday night's rainfall. Especially with the already saturated ground and rivers, creeks, and streams running high. This will raise at least a localized flooding risk tonight.

Most of the rain will be wrapping up by Friday morning but a few lingering showers may still be around through sunrise. High pressure to the north during the afternoon will leave us with a dry Friday but temperatures slightly cooler than what we've felt the last few days. Dry conditions will continue into the start of Saturday, but as another warm front nears the region the chance for a few scattered showers and thunderstorms will be possible during the afternoon, and especially during the evening and overnight.

Turning cooler with rain on the way tonight

Windy Wednesday:

Yesterday was an VERY windy day across northern Illinois. Strong southerly to southwesterly winds frequently gusted between 30-40 mph, helping much warmer air spill in. Thanks to that wind, temperatures surged well above-average compared to early-April standards, climbing into the low 70s.  

    

Cooling down:

Today and tomorrow won't nearly be as windy, but we will see a noticeable change in our weather pattern as a cold front surges southward. Even with that front, highs today remain slightly above-average in the low 60s. By Friday, cooler air settles in thanks to a north to northwest wind, bringing afternoon highs closer to normal leaving most in the upper 50s.  

Rain Chances Tonight:

Rain chances slide back in this evening, starting off light but becoming more organized and widespread as the we get into the overnight hours. Along with steady rain, a few embedded storms will be possible, though severe weather is not expected. 

  

Most areas should pick up a quarter to three-quarters of an inch, with isolated totals up to 1". The good news, coverage should wind down just before the start of the morning commute, setting the stage for a damp but improving start to the day.    

Strong winds continue Wednesday evening ahead of cold front and rain showers

 

11:00PM UPDATE: Steady rain continues to fall for some across Winnebago and Ogle counties Wednesday night, with additional showers found back to the northwest. The rain won't last too long in any one given location as the main line is moving east and northeast. Rainfall totals will remain under a quarter of an inch and will be wrapping up just before daybreak Thursday.

Southerly winds have been rather strong Wednesday afternoon gusting as high as 45 mph in a few locations. The winds will remain gusty through most of the evening, easing only when a cold front comes through after Midnight.

Ahead of the front rain showers have developed, moving from northeast Iowa into southwest Wisconsin. Some of the stronger showers have been capable of producing wind gusts around 50 mph,

pulling down some of the stronger winds aloft. Over the next couple of hours most of the rain will be to our west, with showers now extending across far northwest Jo Daviess County. But as the front begins to move east the rain will as well, spreading over most of northern Illinois between 8pm and 11pm. Scattered showers, with maybe a rumble of thunder or two, will continue through the night with around a quarter of an inch of rain falling by Thursday morning.

The front will sink south of the Stateline during the day Thursday taking the rain showers south with it. West winds will bring temperatures back into the low 60s for the afternoon. The front will then be pulled back north Thursday evening as showers and embedded thunderstorms overspread the region. Some heavier rainfall will be possible during that time (Thursday night) with rainfall totals adding up between half an inch to three quarters of an inch Friday morning. We'll dry things out for a couple days before the next chance of rain (and storms) moves in by the weekend.

Gusty winds return ahead of an unsettled stretch

Quite the Difference:

A tightening pressure gradient ahead of our next cold front will set the stage for a much warmer day. High temperatures Tuesday wound up in the low 40s, landing 12 degrees below average. But with the help of a little sunshine but more importantly, a robust south to southwest wind, we can expect afternoon highs to wind up in the upper 60s today.  

Timing of Strongest Winds:

The strongest winds are expected to arrive during the afternoon hours as daytime mixing increases and taps into the stronger winds aloft. 

Gusts will likely peak during the mid to late afternoon hours, with some locales seeing gusts approaching 40 mph. These winds will likely make it difficult for high-profile vehicles and could cause a few loose objects to be blown around, so it's good idea to secure any lightweight objects. Winds are expected to gradually ease as we progress through the overnight hours.  

Rain Chances Return:

As a cold front sweeps through tonight, it will bring the chance for a few rain showers, though coverage locally will be fairly isolated. The better potential for rain seems to end up north of the Illinois-Wisconsin border where moisture and lift will be a bit more favorable for shower development. An isolated storm or two cannot entirely be ruled out.  

More widespread rain will arrive late Thursday into Thursday night as a stronger system approaches. Rain will increase in coverage from west to east, initially starting off light. As the night goes on, heavier rain and even a few thunderstorms will sweep through the area (all non-severe). Rain should taper off during the mid-morning hours, with many locations picking up between .50" and 1.0". Additional rain chances are scheduled to move in over the weekend, with the best opportunity coming in late Saturday.