While this dry spell holds through Tuesday, expect a bit more of a breeze. The pressure gradient at the surface between the departing high pressure system to our east and the approaching cold front will tighten, driving up today's southwesterly wind.
The cool mornings and pleasant afternoons have kickstarted the process of leaves beginning to change colors for the fall. While not overly vibrant, colors are beginning to show across the region.
According to data from Explore Fall, the colors are really starting to explode across the Northern Plains and Rocky Mountains. Much of the country is not yet near peak colors, but those will continue to expand in the coming weeks.
As we get closer and closer to peak season for fall foliage, weather has a big impact on the fall colors we see. Brighter colors are a result of warm days with cool nights, while retaining adequate rainfall. Warm, humid nights and/or dry patterns result in dull colors by the time peak season rolls around.
Typically, peak colors arrive toward the middle of end of October. According to Explore Fall, we seem to be right on track or a couple days behind. Peak colors set to arrive between October 25th-31st. Be sure to make your plans now so you can catch the vibrant colors when they peak in just a few weeks!
A touch of autumn has arrived across the Upper Midwest this morning, with frost alerts posted in areas north of the Stateline where temperatures have fallen into the 30s. Closer to home, we're also off to a chilly start as temperatures across the region are hovering in the low 40s. While it may feel chilly, temperatures remain well above freezing locally, limiting the potential for frost.
High pressure nearby will once again result in plenty of sun for the Stateline today. Temperatures will be a touch cooler than yesterday as winds turn to the north and northeast, keeping afternoon highs in the upper 60s. Despite the cooler air, it will remain a pleasant fall day with comfortable conditions.
Winds will pick up on Tuesday as our next cold front approaches from the northwest. A southerly to southwesterly breeze, with gusts up to 25 mph, will help usher in warmer air. Combined with plenty of sun, temperatures will climb into the low 70s during the afternoon, making for a mild day.
Sunshine again dominated the sky Sunday, resulting in a pleasantly warm afternoon despite the slight breeze. The next round of high pressure is taking over, which will keep the sunny afternoons, but also bring a chilly night ahead. Temperatures will drop into the low 40s to start out Monday morning, but rebound quickly to the middle or upper 60s by the afternoon.
Southwest winds will begin to increase a bit starting Monday night, which will not allow for it to be quite as chilly, similar to Saturday night. A passing weather system well to the North will draw in some of the slightly warmer air from the South, which will push wind gusts up to 20-25 mph through Tuesday afternoon. This will help bring temperatures back to the 70s for the afternoon.
Similarly mild temperatures will continue for the next several days, with most afternoons topping out in the low 70s. Next weekend may bring another jump with a forecast high of 75 as of now. But rain chances remain absent from the forecast, with only about a 10-20% chance of some light showers between Friday and Saturday.
Saturday was about as perfect as fall weather can be in the Stateline with afternoon highs just barely into the low 70s and plentiful sunshine. It was rather chilly to start the morning, but Saturday night will not quite be as cold with a passing system to the North.
A weaker cold front will push through between 12-6AM, bringing a subtle Southerly wind and increase in clouds through the night, which will work to hold temperatures up a bit compared to the low 40s of Saturday morning. A few light sprinkles may also be possible mainly in Southern Wisconsin before 6AM. Any cloud cover will thin out substantially by daybreak Sunday morning.
Another fabulous day is in store for Sunday with plenty of sunshine and pleasantly mild temperatures. Afternoon highs will be comparable to Saturday, with most near 70 degrees. A bit stronger North to Northwest wind may make it feel a touch cooler, though.
With a couple more chilly nights this week, it's almost getting close to discussing frost and freeze season. On average, Rockford's first freeze is coming up in less than a week. While we do not have any freezing temperatures in the forecast, it is notable to mention we typically get the first night of freezing conditions not that far away. If you narrow the window to just the last 10 years, the average first freeze is still October 19th, within sight!
Following the recent heavy rainfall from earlier in the week, Friday was quick to dry out with lots of sunshine and high temperatures reaching the mid-60s as a result. More equally pleasant weather will be on the way for the weekend with highs near 70 degrees and lots of sunshine. Saturday night will not be quite as cool with a light Southerly wind, but Sunday night will again be chilly in the low 40s.
Repeated rounds of high pressure and weak cold fronts will keep moisture to a minimum over the next week. With limited strong widespread waves, precipitation chances will be very few and far between. Most models keep the entire Stateline dry over the next 7 days, with only very subtle chances for a light shower or two Sunday morning and Wednesday. Any rain that does come down will not amount to much during that time!
October began right where September left off, with plenty of rain across the Stateline. In fact, rainfall totals Thursday ended up even higher than what many locations saw on Wednesday, with most communities picking up around 1.25" or more.
Fortunately, rain chances look very low over the next several days and even for early next week. A cold front will move through the area late Saturday into Sunday, but it will have little moisture to work with as it slides on through. Strong high pressure building into the Upper Midwest will funnel in plenty of dry air into the Stateline. As a result, the front is expected to pass through mainly dry, setting the stage for a nice, quiet, and comfortable stretch.
Expect cloud cover to gradually give way to plenty of sun through the day. With a northerly wind in place behind the departing front, high temperatures to round out the work week will be remain on the cool side, topping out at a pleasant 65 degrees.
The first weekend of October is shaping up to be a nice one across the region. High pressure will remain in control Saturday and Sunday, keeping conditions dry and comfortable. Afternoon highs will climb into the upper 60s and low 70s both day, however, Sunday features a breeze thanks to the cold front that came through the previous night.
