Above average temperatures and calm to start the week

 

Although we had a slight cooldown yesterday, temperatures look to climb back above freezing today and into the rest of the week. We'll see temperatures climb through the day into the mid 30's while clouds will stick around for most of the day with some intermittent sunshine.

 Into the next two days, temperatures will climb well above average into the low 40's which will give us a comfortable start to the week. Some other good news is that precipitation chances remain on the lower side, however a few isolated rain showers may be possible into the evening Monday night.

Temperatures then look to stay well above average into the end of the week and into next week with temperatures into the 40's and possibly into the 50's! Our upper-level jet stream pattern begins to become more active next week as well with a troughing pattern looking likely.

Quiet, mild pattern with more clouds than sun

 It was a chilly Saturday as high temperatures only reached back into the 20s under the influence of high pressure. But the milder trends will return next week, with a few more days reaching near or above 40 degrees.

Cloud cover could have a significant impact on the temperatures each day though. At the moment, cloud coverage Monday and Tuesday is expected to be around 70-80%, which would be considered a mostly cloudy sky. If clouds remain thicker around 90-100%, the potential high temperature may not quite be reached. An overcast sky can result in a 5° difference in temperature compared to even just a few breaks in the clouds.

At the moment, our forecast leans for a few breaks in the clouds which would promote highs in the low 40s Monday and Tuesday. But if clouds do not end up breaking at all, we could be limited to the upper 30s each day.

This milder pattern does not come with many precipitation chances. We could see a few spotty sprinkles or light rain showers Monday night into early Tuesday, but the large majority of the area should remain dry through Wednesday. A more active pattern will begin to develop late next week, bringing more favorable chances for precipitation, including a wintry mix.

Warming trends temporarily slowed with weekend chill

 It was a sunny end to the day Friday as high temperatures reached into the 40s for the first time since mid-January! Unfortunately, the recent warming trend will be temporarily halted this weekend behind Friday's cold front. Temperatures this evening will drop quickly as high pressure slides in. Overnight lows will end up within a few degrees of 10, while wind chills will drop down toward the low single digits for much of the night.

Saturday will start out sunny but cold as afternoon highs only reach back into the mid-20s. Cloud cover will gradually increase through the evening, with a few flurries possible overnight. Most of the moisture from this wave will pass North and East of Rockford, keeping the large majority of the area dry.

It won't take long for the milder air to filter back in. Sunday brings us back above average into the 30s with a mostly cloudy sky. Monday and Tuesday will be back in the 40s again. A few very isolated rain showers may develop nearby Monday evening into Tuesday but look to remain focused North and East of the area again. Overall, a quiet but milder pattern looks to settle in for much of next week.

Friday morning weather update

As we approach 5 a.m. this morning, most of our overnight wintry precipitation will continue to move off to our east. However, for those who were up early (or late) this morning, you may have heard some ice pellets/sleet falling outside while also seeing some light ice on surfaces. Temperatures will stay near freezing through the early morning so with any precipitation that did fall, make sure to keep an eye out for some slick spots on roadways and sidewalks.

As we look forward into the weekend temperatures will slightly drop into tomorrow as high pressure moves in at the surface. This will offer calmer conditions with a bit more sunshine tomorrow, but the warmer temperatures don't return until Sunday. As we move through Sunday an upper-level ridge of high pressure will develop over the central united states which will gradually warm temperatures into the week.

Temperatures will reach above average through next week while our daily high temperatures will be above freezing through all of next week! This will give us a nice warmup but even with warmer temperatures next week, precipitation chances will remain on the lower side. 
 
 

Back above freezing as unseasonable warmth arrives next week

 Rockford reached a high temperature of 36 Thursday afternoon, pushing above freezing for the first time in nearly 3 weeks! The 19 day streak of sub-freezing temperatures is the 15th longest on record and the longest streak since 2010!

We will take a brief break in the warming trend over the weekend behind Friday's cold front and associated wintry mix, but trends will be turning back "warmer" for much of next week. Milder air that had been previously locked away to the Southwest will surge our way, pushing temperatures into the 30s and 40s for a few days starting Sunday and Monday. Monday through Wednesday will be the warmest days in the near term, with all three days featuring highs in the 40s.

This pocket of milder air also comes with a bit more moisture, but not overly impressive rain chances. Aside from the wintry mix Thursday night and slim chance for flurries Saturday night, precipitation chances will be limited through at least Tuesday. A weaker low pressure system may try to develop nearby with better moisture overhead. With the warmer air, most of this would come down as a light rain.

Looking ahead to the middle of February, the "milder" pattern looks to continue with a 50-70% chance to see above average temperatures between the 11th and 15th. Average highs by mid-February are closer to the low 30s. By February 28th, the average high is nearly 40 degrees!

Light wintry mix possible late Thursday night

 

A quick moving clipper system will sweep across the Midwest and Great Lakes late Thursday night bringing with it a chance for wintry precipitation, including a small window of a little freezing drizzle/rain.

Temperatures Thursday warmed into the mid-30s, with a few spots hitting close to 40 degrees - despite the thick cloud cover overhead. A breezy southwest wind has helped to warm temperatures into the mid-30s with a few spots getting close to 40 degrees! A breezy southwest wind has helped keep a little chill in the air with wind chills staying in the 20s. Clouds remain overhead tonight as a push of warm air arrives from the west. This warmer air aloft will approach the freezing mark, but surface temperatures will remain just below freezing. The end result of this will be a brief period of freezing rain/drizzle, mixing in with a few snow showers after Midnight.

Significant ice accumulations are not expected this evening but there could be just enough of a glaze of ice to create slippery conditions on untreated surfaces such as parking lots, sidewalks, side streets, etc. With this in mind, travel for the Friday morning commute could be a little slick and you are urged to use caution and give yourself a little extra time during the morning commute.

Temperatures will warm into the mid-30s but an increasing north wind, gusting around 35 mph, will push temperatures down during the afternoon and evening. Overnight lows Friday night will drop into the single digits with wind chills falling into the single digits below zero Saturday morning.

Scattered snow, increasing wind on tap for week's end

Our weather pattern gets a little more unsettled for the final days of the work week. 

Beginning with clipper system #1 which is scheduled to slide through today. With it will come to potential for a few flurries and snow showers, especially before the mid-morning hours. 

Those who live to the north and east of Rockford will have a better chance at seeing the light snow stick to the surface. Be on the lookout for slick spots. Skies will stay mostly cloudy for the afternoon as southwest winds increase during the evening. The highest our gusts will get today is 25 mph. This will help push temperatures into the low 30s for the first time in nearly three weeks!

Forecast models then show temperatures hugging the 30° mark tonight but may end up slightly warmer just a few thousand feet above. As the next clipper system pushes in early Friday, we could see the chance for a very light mix to occur, mixing in with a few light snow showers during that time. 

 

  

High temperatures will be achieved early in the day, warming into the upper 30s. Temperatures from there will drop during the afternoon and evening following a second, and slightly stronger, cold front. This will take overnight lows down into the single digits Friday night. Of course, wind chills will once again become a factor as winds pick up quickly out of the north and northwest following Friday's frontal passage. Expect values to wind up near, if not just slightly below, 0° by Saturday morning.