Record warmth spills into Northern Illinois as "false spring" continues

Temperature Comparison: 

The "False spring" season is well underway as we've added a few more 50° days and even Rockford's first 60° to the 2026 temperature count. Up until this point last year, the Rockford Airport had yet to see a 60° day and even had less 50° days. 

Record Warmth: 

60s are back in the forecast this afternoon and will likely result in record warmth. Rockford's record high is 57° from 1921 but with the way things are shaping up, we should reach 62° this afternoon. Of course, today's record warmth comes with a good deal of sun but also a gusty wind. Winds will be out of the southwest, gusting up to 30 mph.   

Rain Chances Arrive: 

Clouds will move back in tonight as the warm front sinks back south near the Stateline. This will also bring the risk for patchy dense fog and limit tonight's temperature drop to the upper 30s. Cloud hangs tight for Tuesday in a mostly cloudy fashion and winds will be breezy. This time, flow will be out of the southeast, resulting in mild temperatures in the mid 50s. It won't be close to our record high for February 17th as that is 66° from 2017.   

Forecast models then show an area of low pressure swinging across the Midwest and spiraling towards Lake Superior Tuesday evening. With it will come the scattered chance for showers as well as the possibility for a storm into Wednesday morning. Coverage of this upcoming rain chance will not be high, and only up to a quarter inch may come down in any given location. Temperatures may remain in the upper 40s or warmer all of Tuesday night. 

Breezy few days with record warmth likely Monday

 Under bright sunshine, Sunday afternoon saw temperatures warm into the 60s, including a high of 61 in Rockford! While not quite a record high, we will likely see a broken record with Monday's high temperature.

The milder air lately has not come with much wind, but that will change over the next few days. A series of low pressure systems will begin to increase winds locally Monday morning. By the afternoon, West-Southwest gusts could reach 20-30 mph. Winds will flip to the Southeast Tuesday as a frontal boundary pushes across the area. Behind the low pressure Wednesday, winds will turn Westerly and increase to 25-35 mph gusts.

The more West-Southwest wind Monday will allow for temperatures to surge near or above 60 degrees again despite the added cloud cover. This will more than likely break the record high for February 16th, which is currently 57° set in 1921.

Monday night into Tuesday will feature a cold front sliding in from the North before stalling out overhead overnight. This stationary boundary may produce some areas of fog which could carry over into Tuesday morning. The front will only pull back North of the region Tuesday evening, so we will remain in the 50s for Tuesday afternoon.

Spotty showers will accompany a passing low pressure system Tuesday night, with even a low-end risk for some isolated thunderstorms. Coverage of rain will not be that high, and only up to a quarter inch may come down in any given location. Temperatures may remain in the upper 40s or warmer all of Tuesday night.

The combination of strong winds, another warm day, and much drier air Wednesday will result in an elevated fire risk for the afternoon in particular. Dew point temperatures will drop into the 20s Wednesday afternoon, resulting in low relative humidity. Avoid outdoor burning Wednesday as fires may be able to spread very quickly.

Spring like temperatures continue into the middle of the week

Over the past week we've seen temperatures consistently above average for the last 6 days and this trend only looks to continue with temperatures into the 60's likely! This has been happily welcomed for us across the region as the end of January was quite the opposite. Today will be very similar to yesterday however thanks to consistent sunshine we will see our temperatures rise into the upper 50's this afternoon!

Into the next three days temperatures only look to rise as continued sunshine into tomorrow will allow us to make a run at our first 60° day of the year with similar chances likely into Wednesday. We will experience a brief cooldown though on Tuesday as our next low-pressure system tracks through. As of now the warm front with this system looks to stay just off to our south keeping us in the 50's, but along and ahead of the warm front rain showers will be possible late Tuesday and into Wednesday morning. This warm front will then lift to our north into Wednesday bringing temperatures back near 60° once again!

As we move into the end of the week another low-pressure system will develop to our west on Thursday however with this system looks to track overhead or just to our south allowing for colder air to move in behind. Behind this system temperatures are expected to drop back near average and possibly slightly below average back into the 30's. Unfortunately, this "False Spring" we've had looks to end by the end of the week. 

More mild days ahead, including record warmth

 It was another mild day Saturday with filtered sunshine as temperatures reached into the low 50s for most. Clouds will thin out overnight, allowing sunshine to dominate the sky for Sunday afternoon. Temperatures will soar well into the 50s as a result. Our forecast high is 57 for Sunday afternoon. This comes despite a Northwest wind, due to the broad region of milder air stretching all the way into the Northern Plains.

Monday will see another upward swing in temperatures with a more Southwest wind, pushing afternoon highs near 60 degrees for many! Rockford is likely to break a record high as the current record is 57 degrees, set back in 1921.

A cold front Monday evening will bring us back into the 30s for Tuesday morning, and the position of the front will play a huge role in temperature for Tuesday afternoon. If the front remains South of the area, we could realistically stay in the 40s all afternoon. If the front surges well North of us, 60s would be possible. For now, I think the front will not lift through the area until late evening, which may keep us in the low 50s or cooler through the evening.

A strong surface low pressure system will develop along that front, sliding our way and North of the area Tuesday into Wednesday. This will bring scattered rain showers our direction Tuesday evening into Wednesday morning before drier air wraps in Wednesday afternoon. All told, a few spots may be able to pick up a couple tenths of an inch of rain, but the steadiest precipitation will remain mostly North of the area. Another system will follow on the heels of this one, arriving Thursday evening.

Warm temperatures continue into Valentine's Day weekend

 

Our comfortable stretch of upper 40's and 50's looks to continue as we head through today and into next week! Above average temperatures look to stick around not only through the week but even into the middle of next week. For those heading out for Valentine's Day today you won't need to bundle up much thanks to temperatures reaching into the low to mid 40's today!

Temperatures only look to rise the next two days as well as plenty of sunshine sticking around the next couple of days. It'll be a great weekend to get outside enjoy a walk or run or maybe even start on some very early season yard work!

Heading into the middle of the week, precipitation chances will become a bit higher especially towards Tuesday night as our next low-pressure system tracks through. With this low-pressure system, a warm front will accompany which depending on how north this front lifts, we may see slightly cooler temperatures Tuesday. However, that won't last long as on Wednesday we may make a run at our first 60° day of the year!

Patchy fog and frost tonight, warming back up for Valentine's Day

 Temperatures will fall off quickly Friday evening as the sun sets, reaching down into the 30s and 40s before 7PM. By overnight, we will dip into the upper 20s. A clear sky and light wind will allow for some patches of frost and fog to develop. Locally, fog will not be dense, but visibility could be temporarily limited for some isolated spots into Saturday morning.

Clouds will gradually thicken up through the morning on Saturday, which could prevent temperatures from reaching quite as far as they did on Friday. Afternoon highs are still expected to push into the low 50s, well above average for this time of year. Any Valentine's Day plans will not be impacted by the weather, as we will remain quiet and mild into the evening.

We will remain dry locally through the weekend, but Central Illinois could see some steady rain showers Saturday afternoon and evening. The clouds from that system will work overhead but will not produce any rain. Highs will reach the mid-50s again Sunday and upper 50s Monday.

Northern Illinois set to see 50° weather after month-long pause

Taste of Spring:  

A month-long drought of  50° weather comes to an end for Rockford today as temperatures finally climb back into spring-like territory. 

Lots of sun and a light southwesterly breeze will help with today's significant warm up, pushing afternoon highs into the low 50s. Compared to mid-February standards, today's high of 52° lands exactly 20° above average. All remains quiet into Saturday as lows fall into the low 20s under a partly cloudy sky. 

Weekend Forecast: 

This taste of spring will linger into Valentine's Day weekend as both Saturday and Sunday will see highs land in the low 50s. The difference, we'll see a bit more cloud cover Saturday, especially late as an area of low pressure tracks to our south. 

  

Warmth Next Week: 

President's day will be nice as a ridge of high pressure aloft sits overhead. This will guarantee us sunshine as well as temperatures near the 60° mark. 

After that, the forecast gets a little tricky as forecast models Thursday night and this morning disagree on the track of a surface low and it's warm front. The European model (EURO) brings the surface low into central Illinois, leaving winds here in the Stateline out of the east and northeast. Temperature-wise, this results in a much cooler outlook with highs dropping back into the 40s. 

The American model (GFS) lifted the surface low into Wisconsin which also brings the warm front north. The southwesterly flow that results would help keep this 50° stretch into the middle of next week with the potential for 60s Wednesday. We'll see how the forecast trends over the weekend but for the time being, 50s are likely into President's Day.