Rain chances on the rise as next big system pushes in

Next Big Storm System:

Our next big storm system will begin to take shape over the next few days, bringing big changes to the weather pattern across northern Illinois. As an area of low pressure organizes and lifts to our north and west, the pressure gradient at the surface will tighten across the Midwest, leading to a stretch of breezy, but mild conditions for the start of the week. 

Timing Out The Impacts:

Southerly winds will not only keep temperatures well-above average, but will also help transport increasing moisture northward into the region. That moisture, combined with several disturbances rotating around the incoming storm system will result in an increasing chance for showers starting late today. 

 

Showers late today, tonight, and through the first half of Tuesday will be scattered. It won't be until Tuesday afternoon and evening where we will see our best chance for not only steady showers, but maybe a rumble of thunder or two. It's safe to say you'll want to keep an umbrella nearby from start to finish, as this will be the wettest day of this stretch. 

 

  

Low pressure is expected to linger nearby through the middle of the work week, keeping conditions both breezy and unsettled across the Stateline. As a result, we'll continue to carry a slight chance for a few passing showers, though Wednesday will likely have more dry time mixing in with the highest moisture being focused to the east of the region. 

October 2026 joins Rockford's warmest on record

A Look Back at October:

October 2026 will go down as one of Rockford's warmest Octobers on record. The average temperature at the Rockford Airport finished at 60.8°, ranking as the 9th warmest on record. Warmth wasn't confined to just a few days either as a remarkable 17 of October's 31 days recorded high temperatures of 70° or warmer, ranking it the 8th most 70° days in October since records began in 1905. 

Even overnight temperatures were unusually mild, with just one freezing temperature recorded all month, a low of 31° on October 17th. A look at the record books shows that has only happened 6 other times at the Rockford Airport, 1931, 1940, 1956, 1963, 2017, and 2021. Taken together, the abundance of 70° afternoon, lack of freezing night, and consistently above-average temperatures made this October feel more like September. 

First Week of November:

The warmth isn't finished just because the calendar has flipped to November. A developing area of low pressure tracking to our north and west will place the region under a robust southerly to southeasterly flow through the first half of the week. That persistent wind will continue to transport mild air into the area, pushing temperatures well-above early-November standards. Highs today will wind up in the low 60s, then low 70s for Tuesday afternoon.   

 

 

 

 
 

Drizzle possible through Monday, steadier rain Tuesday and Wednesday

 Rainfall potential will increase over the coming days as a broader low pressure system approaches the area. Sunday night and Monday will mainly feature isolated to scattered patches of light drizzle, if any rain at all. But steadier showers and higher coverage of rain will arrive Monday night through Tuesday night. While there may be occasional pockets of dry time Tuesday, they will be few and far between.

We will remain unseasonably mild over this stretch with a steady Southerly wind, especially Monday night into Tuesday. A few wind gusts may even reach 30-35 mph at times. The steadier rain showers will hold off until Monday evening, with waves of rain then continuing through the night.

A few rumbles of thunder may also be possible within some of the heavier bursts of rain, particularly Tuesday afternoon and evening. While severe weather is not expected, some of the showers may be accompanied by gusty winds of 35+ mph. Rain will slowly taper off Tuesday night, but additional showers may wrap around the system into Wednesday.

All told, most in the Stateline will see around a half inch of rain between Monday and Wednesday. There is potential for a few spots to pick up over 1" of rainfall, where multiple waves of steadier showers pass through over the same locations over and over. Unsettled weather with possibly a few lingering showers will remain possible into Thursday and maybe Friday, as afternoon highs drop back into the 50s.

Breezy pattern with widespread rain begins Monday

 While a few light showers or areas of drizzle remain possible from time-to-time through Sunday afternoon, that rain will not amount to much. Accumulated rainfall will likely remain under a tenth of an inch for most who see additional rainfall between Saturday night and Sunday.

A more widespread and soaking rain will approach the region with our next weather system beginning Monday. A few light showers will be possible as early as midday, but the higher coverage of rain will arrive later in the day. It will not be raining the entire day, but the afternoon to evening will feature higher chances and intensity of showers.

Rain will be more widespread Monday night through Tuesday, with some embedded heavier rain and possibly even a few rumbles of thunder. This system will not be conducive of severe weather locally, however. Rain may not exit until Wednesday, when a cold front works to clear out more of the abundant moisture.

As this strong low pressure pushes through, it will also bring a period of stronger winds with it. Wind gusts could approach 20-35 mph at times early next week. Winds will start from the Southeast on Monday, then from a more South and Southwest direction Tuesday and Wednesday. This will also work to keep us on a milder note, with afternoon highs in the mid to upper 60s.

Halloween forecast: Not overly chilly, but scattered showers likely

 Many trick-or-treaters are hoping for a less spooky forecast, but it also could be much worse! This Halloween weekend will feature slightly warmer than average temperatures along with subtle rain chances from time to time. Both Saturday and Sunday will see afternoon highs in the low to mid-60s, while overnight lows will only fall to the lower 50s.

The initial push of rain will arrive early Saturday morning but will linger well into the afternoon. Rain probably will not come down very hard, but it will be enough to be annoying for anyone spending more than a few minutes outdoors. There may be a few pockets of steadier showers, but nothing anywhere close to a downpour.

The coverage of rain will gradually decrease through the evening, but won't quite dry out across the entire area until later in the night. Even 7-8PM may still have a few pockets of lighter showers from time to time, but most of the area will be drying out not long after.

Temperatures may not be quite as cool as the model pictured above would suggest, though. Most areas will remain in the mid-50s through 8-9PM, but a few showers may still be lingering. Trick-or-treaters should have the umbrella handy but may not quite need to attach it to the costumes! Sunday may also feature a few showers from time to time, but even less coverage and intensity compared to Saturday.

Cooler air settles in, Halloween showers fade through the day

Cooler Friday:

The fall-like chill is back across northern Illinois and southern Wisconsin, with temperatures running 15 to 25 degrees cooler than the unseasonable warmth we experienced earlier this week. Temperatures this morning have dipped into the upper 30s, giving the area a more fall-like feel. 

 

As the day goes on, cloud cover will continue to build across the area. That, along with a light northeasterly wind will keep the cooler air locked in place for the end of the work week, limiting afternoon highs to the upper 50s, close to 60°. Along with the cloud cover, a few afternoon sprinkles are possible. 

 

 

Halloween Climate:

Halloween has a habit of delivering just about every type of weather for Rockford. While this year's warm up won't be as substantial as the warmth we saw earlier in the week, temperatures remain far from the coldest Halloween on record. 

The warmest Halloween was a summer-like 84° back in 1950, while the coldest was 32° back in 1917. Halloween as also seen its share of wet weather, with the rainiest occurring in 1919 when 2.51" fell at the airport. And if you recall, it didn't take much in 2019 for Rockford to see its snowiest Halloween on record when 3.1" of snow fell and blanketed the area.   

Halloween Weekend:

Halloween this year will feature a few weather concerns, but it appears the steadiest rain will occur during the morning hours. As we head through the afternoon, rain chances are expected to gradually diminish, although a few lingering sprinkles cannot be ruled out as trick-or-treaters head door-to-door Saturday evening. While widespread rainfall is not anticipated, it may still be a good idea to keep the umbrella nearby just in case.
 

October so far: Above average for the month

 

Following near record warmth Wednesday afternoon Thursday hasn't been quite as warm, but temperatures have remained above average - despite a cold front coming through earlier in the morning.

The day started off with cloud cover and a few light showers but those were quick to move out with sun-filled skies for the rest of the afternoon. This helped to warm temperatures into the mid and upper 60s area wide, with Rockford's high reaching 68 degrees. And here's a little fun fact for you - the low temperature Thursday morning was the same as what the average high temperature should be for the 29th of October! That is 56 degrees. Now, Friday may see some 50s thanks to the quick return of cloud cover in the morning and a brisk northeast breeze. But we look to warm right back up into the weekend and next week.

Looking back over the month of October our average temperature to date is 58.3 degrees. That is almost six degrees above the monthly average (to date) and places this October, so far, as the 7th warmest month-to-date on record. Just within the last week and a half temperatures have been well above average, some nearly 15-20 degrees!

October usually doesn't average a lot of precipitation with 2.63 inches being recorded for the month. So far this month we've added up 1.92 inches which places us at a 0.55-inch deficit. We'll make up for some of that late Friday into Saturday with the next chance for rainfall, but likely not enough to keep us out of at least a little bit of a precipitation deficit to end the month.