Brief cooldown, then quickly warming into the weekend

Breezy Conditions Remain:

We're coming off a blustery Tuesday, and that wind isn't letting up as we head into Wednesday. While peak gusts ease a bit, a steady northwest breeze will stick around, continuing to usher in cooler air across the Stateline. That shift in wind will keep afternoon highs in the low 60s - still on the cooler side for this time of year. Normally, we're near the 70° mark as we jump into the second half of May.   

Temperatures Surge:

In better news, this cooldown won't stick around for long. By Thursday, winds on the backside of a surface high pressure system will swing to the southwest, allowing a quick surge in temperatures to occur. That warmer flow will help bring highs back towards the 70-degree mark, with even milder air settling in by Friday afternoon - pushing us past 70 degrees and right back to a more seasonable feel.   

Showers Thursday Night:

The highest chance for rain in the days leading up to the weekend will arrive Thursday night into Friday morning. Moisture will be on the increase as a weak disturbance slides in, though coverage remains quite scattered so not everyone will see rain. Expect a few passing showers before conditions gradually settle down as we head into Friday afternoon.  

 
 
 

After brief cool-down, summer-like pattern arrives this weekend

 Tuesday was characterized by scattered showers and abundant cloud cover limiting afternoon highs to the low 70s for most. Along a cold front this evening, we may see another isolated shower or storm develop through 8PM. Most of the area will remain dry, however. Winds will pick up right behind the front, gusting near 30 mph at times out of the Northwest. As skies clear late in the evening, temperatures will drop down toward the upper 40s.

Temperatures will only rebound into the mid-60s on Wednesday with a continued North-Northwest breeze and a building cloud deck. There is a very limited chance for a few sprinkles, but most will again remain dry. Lighter winds Wednesday night will allow for some patches of frost to develop by Thursday morning, but afternoon sunshine will warm temperatures back into the upper 60s.

A warmer, summer-like, and active pattern will begin to set up later this week into next. This will be denoted by a rise in Gulf moisture flowing North into the Central United States. Local afternoon high temperatures will push into the upper 70s to near 80 several days. The added moisture will also produce daily thunderstorm chances, beginning Thursday night into Friday. Higher coverage and frequency of rain will be most prevalent Sunday through Monday night.

Incoming cold front stirs up gust winds, isolated severe threat

Isolated Strong to Severe:

We've got quite the day on tap across the Stateline. A  warm-up will push temperatures into the upper 70s, but it won't come without some impacts. Along with gusty non-thunderstorm winds up to 40mph, we'll be monitoring the potential for isolated strong to severe storms starting after midday. Now, it's a low risk since instability or storm fuel lacks greatly. This is why the Storm Prediction Center has left areas east of Monroe, Freeport, and Davenport under a level 1 of 5 Marginal Risk for severe weather, with hail and strong winds being the main concerns.   

On the other hand, strong non-thunderstorm winds will also be on the table today. This is all thanks to a tighter pressure gradient developing as a strong storm system passes to our north, allowing a cold front to slide through during the evening. On top of that, a well-mixed atmosphere with warmer air building in will allow stronger winds just above the surface to mix down. This will result in frequent gusts pushing 35 to 40 mph, mainly during the afternoon. 

Breezy, Cooler Wednesday:

The timing of the cold front sets up a cooler outlook for the middle of the work week. This is where we will see our coolest afternoon high of the 7-day, with highs being limited to the low 60s. Winds won't be as strong but still noticeable, gusting up to 30 mph during the overnight hours and on Wednesday.  

  

Temperatures Surge:

Again, Wednesday looks to be the coolest day of this stretch as we look to turn things around before the weekend. As we head into Thursday and Friday, winds shift more out of the southwest, opening the door for warmer air to surge back in. That change in flow will allow temperatures to rebound nicely, with highs climbing into the upper 70s by Friday and then potentially low 80s Saturday. It's the sustained warmth that many have been waiting for.    

Gusty winds return ahead of Tuesday's cold front

 

We had a nice little break from the wind Monday afternoon as temperatures warmed into the low to mid 60s. High pressure centered over the eastern Great Lakes kept areas to the east of Rockford slightly cooler, but thankfully the winds were not nearly as gusty as they were both Saturday and Sunday. Peak winds Saturday were close to 40 mph and just over 30 mph Sunday afternoon.

Unfortunately, the break from the wind is a short-lived one as gusts will pick back up again Tuesday. Winds will shift to the southeast tonight/early Tuesday before turning to the southwest ahead of a cold front early in the afternoon. While this will give temperatures a nice little boost into the mid-70s, gusts approaching 35 mph will be somewhat common during the afternoon.

There could even be a few stronger wind gusts as the cold front comes through. And those may occur with the showers/isolated thunderstorms themselves. However, our overall severe threat remains somewhat limited for the afternoon.

We'll see a few showers develop ahead of the front late morning and afternoon, quickly moving southeast by evening. Rainfall totals will remain under a few tenths of an inch.   

Frosty start, sunny finish—But storms lurk tomorrow

Frost Advisory:

Frosty morning have been a familiar theme lately - but hopefully this one serves as a final reminder that spring is still settling in. Currently, areas across southern Wisconsin along with Jo-Daviess and Stephenson County in northern Illinois are under a Frost Advisory until 8AM. 

  

After a chilly start to the day, sunshine takes over, allowing temperatures to climb to seasonable cool but pleasant levels. Winds will be much calmer compared to recent days, though a light northeast breeze will keep afternoon highs capped in the low 60s. All in all, its a textbook spring day, crisp early with bright and pleasant conditions later on. Cloud cover will increase overnight tonight as our next system approaches the area from the northwest.    

Tuesday's Severe Threat: 

Tomorrow will be warmer, though our weather will turn a bit more unsettled. Skies will turn mostly cloudy and winds will increase as this storm system enters the western Great Lakes. While not everyone will see rain, a few of these storms could become strong to severe, so it's worth staying weather-aware as the day progresses.  

 

In their latest round of severe outlooks, the Storm Prediction Center placed a majority of the region under a level 1 of 5 Marginal Risk. Any thunderstorm that does manage to become severe will be capable of large hail initially, with damaging winds and heavy rainfall as secondary threats. 

Patchy frost tonight, warming up over the next week

 It was a pleasant but breezy Mother's Day with high temperatures into the mid-60s and a lot of sunshine. Under a mainly clear sky this evening, temperatures will drop quickly into the low 40s and upper 30s. A light breeze should curtail any widespread frost threat. But where temperatures drop into the mid-30s, at least some patches of frost are possible.

The best chances to see that patchy frost will be North and West of Rockford, where a frost advisory will go into effect between 12-2AM and run through 8AM for Green, Rock, and Walworth Counties in Southern Wisconsin along with Jo Daviess and Stephenson Counties in Northwestern Illinois. Any frost threat will quickly go away as the sun rises with another round of morning sunshine and quickly warming temperatures.

The next impactful weather system will slide through the area on Tuesday, bringing a period of stronger Southwest and West winds along with some scattered showers and a few isolated thunderstorms. Winds could gust upwards of 30-40 mph outside of storms, with a low-end risk of a few severe storms as well.

Behind Tuesday's system, the warming trend will be temporarily slowed with highs in the 60s Wednesday and Thursday. But steady warming brings afternoon highs back to a summer-like feel with nearly 80-degree highs next weekend! That warmer pattern does come with periodic thunderstorm chances which will become more clarified as we get later in the week.

Mother's Day Forecast: Increasing clouds, cooler breeze

 Happy Mother's Day to all the moms out there! It will be a pleasant, albeit cooler, day in the Stateline with high temperatures pushing back into the mid-60s. The morning will start out with a lot of sunshine, but clouds will increase through the afternoon. There will be a noticeable cool breeze, but not nearly as windy as Saturday's blustery day.

The next several nights will be on the chilly side with another pocket of cold air settling over the Great Lakes. Overnight lows will hover near or just below 40 degrees, starting Saturday night. Sunday night will bring the best chance for some patches of frost, so hold off on any planting just yet!

A much milder air mass looks to settle in across the country toward next weekend, with a very high likelihood of above average temperatures for the second half of May. This "thermal ridge" will bring more 70 and 80-degree afternoons as opposed to the 50s and 60s we've been experiencing lately! This should be the last week of frost potential this season, so plant away after next weekend!