Sunshine returns after a soaking start to October

Thursday's Soaking Rain:

October began right where September left off, with plenty of rain across the Stateline. In fact, rainfall totals Thursday ended up even higher than what many locations saw on Wednesday, with most communities picking up around 1.25" or more. 

 

Little to No Rain:

Fortunately, rain chances look very low over the next several days and even for early next week. A cold front will move through the area late Saturday into Sunday, but it will have little moisture to work with as it slides on through. Strong high pressure building into the Upper Midwest will funnel in plenty of dry air into the Stateline. As a result, the front is expected to pass through mainly dry, setting the stage for a nice, quiet, and comfortable stretch. 

Pleasant Friday:

Expect cloud cover to gradually give way to plenty of sun through the day. With a northerly wind in place behind the departing front, high temperatures to round out the work week will be remain on the cool side, topping out at a pleasant 65 degrees.  

 

Quiet Weekend:

The first weekend of October is shaping up to be a nice one across the region. High pressure will remain in control Saturday and Sunday, keeping conditions dry and comfortable. Afternoon highs will climb into the upper 60s and low 70s both day, however, Sunday features a breeze thanks to the cold front that came through the previous night. 

Rockford wraps up one of its wettest Septembers ever

Yesterday's soaking rain pushed Rockford's monthly September total to 7.40 inches, officially making it the 14th wettest on record. 

To find Rockford's wettest September on record, you'd have to go back about six decades. The top spot belongs to 1961, when the airport recorded 10.68" of rain for the month. Not far behind is 1970, which came in with 10.63" of rain. 
 

Heavy rainfall continues Thursday morning

Throughout much of the morning and midday hours rain showers will continue across the state line and entire Midwest in general. 

This is all caused by a slow-moving low-pressure system across the desert southwest that continues to spin a few upper-level disturbances our way. Thanks to good moisture pooled up against a stalled frontal boundary close by, these disturbances will continue to fuel consistent showers today.

Rainfall totals through the morning are already above one inch in areas south of I-88 while locations further north have accumulated around 0.50" to 0.90" which is still nothing to ignore. This already comes after some areas in the region received over an inch of rainfall yesterday, while the Rockford Airport accumulated 0.95" from yesterday's rainfall.

 

Rainfall looks to only continue this morning and later this evening as a few weak upper-level disturbances will pass through as previously mentioned. 

Rainfall at times may be heavy as well mainly through the morning as our moisture content will be the highest through the morning. Some spots throughout the day may receive another 0.50" to even over an inch through today. 

Because of all of this rainfall, the potential for flash flooding will continue today as both the National Weather Service and Weather Prediction Center agree on this possibility. Once again, we have a slight 2/4 risk for flash flooding as well along with Flood Watches still in effect for Whiteside and Carroll counties lasting through this evening. If you see flooded areas or roadways, do not drive through those areas and return to higher ground!

Wednesday afternoon rainfall update

 

Rainfall totals across the Stateline range from a few tenths of an inch north of the state line to just over an inch along and south of I-88. The heavier rain from the morning took a little break early afternoon, but steady showers continue to fall south of Rockford.

Over the next few hours scattered showers will remain from Iowa across northern Illinois, leaving most of southern Wisconsin dry, but foggy. Through the late evening the rain will slowly begin to pull

back north as several little upper-level disturbances move through, along with a slight increase in moisture and low-level jet. This will allow for some heavier rain to develop during the overnight and lasting through most of Thursday morning. Flood Watches have been issued for Carroll and Whiteside counties until late Thursday night.

Temperatures will hold steady in the low to mid 60s through much of the night, rising only a few degrees Thursday afternoon. As a cold front moves across southern Wisconsin and into northern Illinois during the afternoon it'll take the heaviest rain south with it, with more scattered showers lasting into Thursday evening.  An additional 1-2 inches of rainfall will be likely between what comes down Wednesday evening through Thursday evening.

  

Another soaking rain on the way for northern Illinois

Rain Chances Return:

Rain has made its return to the Stateline, and it looks like it's here to stay into October. A steady influx of moisture from the southern and central plains will keep showers in the forecast, with periods of heavy rainfall possible at times. 

 

Timing Out the Rain:

The heaviest rainfall today is expected to fall before mid-morning, so before 9-10AM. You'll definitely want the umbrellas, rain gear, and windshield wipers ready for the morning commute. While today's rain is expected to decrease in coverage towards midday and for the afternoon, don't put the rain gear away. Keep it on hand as scattered showers will be a possibility for the second half of the day. 

Showers will remain scattered through the overnight hours, though an occasional heavy downpour or two cannot be ruled out. Another, more widespread round of rain is expected to move through on Thursday as our cold front prepares to push through. Coverage will increase through the morning, with some of the steadiest and heaviest rain looking to occur during the late-morning and early-afternoon hours. So like today, the umbrella will be a must.

Drying Out for the Weekend: 

Rain showers may linger through the first few hours of Friday, but that will also mark the beginning of a transition to a drier and quieter weather pattern. As the system responsible for the midweek rainfall shifts to our east, drier air will gradually work its way into the Stateline, bringing an end to the extended stretch of wet weather. Afternoon highs, thanks to the cold front that pushes through late Thursday, will fall into the mid to upper 60s for the weekend. 

Rainfall projections have remained fairly consistent over the past few days, with most locations expected to pick up between 1" to 2". As of this morning, this September ranks as the 19th wettest on record for the Rockford, but there's a good chance that ranking will climb with what passes through today. 

Temperatures reach 80 degrees in northern Illinois Tuesday afternoon

 It has been another spectacular late September afternoon! After chilly start Tuesday morning, afternoon temperatures warmed nicely throughout the Stateline reaching the upper 70s and low 80s! The average high should be right around 70 degrees. But the warmth doesn't last and in just a short 12 hours it'll look, and feel, quite a bit different outside.

Clouds will continue to thicken up through the evening which will slow just how fast temperatures

fall through the night. Overnight lows will remain right around 60 degrees. Skies will remain dry through Midnight, and likely through 2am/3am, but light rain showers will move in from west to east with a heavier rainfall expected through sunrise Wednesday. Temperatures will have a hard time warming much above 70 degrees Wednesday afternoon, despite the southwesterly wind. Following a strong cold front Thursday night high pressure settles in for the upcoming weekend leaving temperatures in the 60s.

Umbrellas required: Soaking rain chances ahead of fall cooldown

What's Ahead?:

Patchy dense fog may once again develop across the Stateline early this morning, potentially leading to reduced visibility for those traveling. Any fog or low clouds should gradually lift as we approach the mid-morning hours, but our attention then turns to our next storm system. Moisture will continue to spill in Tuesday evening into Tuesday night, allowing rain to become likely by Wednesday morning. 

Timing Out The Rain:

Scattered showers and periods of steady/heavy rain are expected both Wednesday and Thursday as the cold front approaches from the west. While severe weather is unlikely during this stretch, a rumble of thunder or two cannot be ruled out. 

Current forecast guidance continues to point towards the heaviest rain arriving Wednesday morning, with another round pushing in as we inch closer to midday Thursday and into Thursday afternoon. There is also some indication that tropical moisture could become involved with this incoming rain. The reason why?  The jet stream is expected to pick up the remnants of former major hurricane Polo and swing it in our general direction, helping boost rainfall efficiency and totals across portions of the Midwest. 

It's safe to say you'll want to keep an umbrella handy both Wednesday and Thursday. Most locations could receive more than an inch of rain by the time this system exits into the Great Lakes, while isolated areas may pick up as much as 2"+ where the heavies bands of rain persist. While the exact amounts will continue to be refined over the next 12 to 18 hours, confidence is growing for another soaking rain.