Radar may look a little daunting early this morning, but showers will dissipate by the time they arrive. There is a very small chance (10%) for a stray shower Northwest of Rockford through 11AM, but sunshine is expected by the afternoon.
That sunshine will result in a jump in temperatures. Afternoon highs will push into the mid-80s for most. Game on for any outdoor plans, including any parades, cookouts, and other festivities. Remember to apply sunscreen and hydrate today as it will be a warm day!
While some locations got a bit of rainfall last night into the early hours of this morning, it wasn't for everyone. A few spots across Lee/DeKalb Counties saw between 0.5-1.0" of rain, but the Rockford airport only picked up 0.19", bringing the monthly total to 0.47", the 3rd driest May to date.
No rain expected for your Memorial Day plans, but a few clouds will pass by midday. Those clouds will not limit the degree of warming whatsoever, as afternoon highs still push into the mid-80s. A+ for any outdoor plans!
Unfortunately, it does not look like we have much rain on the way with a blocking high pressure that will set up near the Great Lakes, limiting rainfall potential locally through the week ahead. Soaking rain may be likely as close as Southern Illinois, but the dry air from Great Lakes high pressure will severely limit Northward extend of that moisture, resulting in very little if any widespread rainfall over the next 5-7 days.
On the bright side, that drier weather will lead to a few more days in the mid-80s for afternoon highs. A backdoor cold front Wednesday may produce our only isolated rain chance, but also will work to bring a "cooler" Easterly wind with highs back to the upper 70s to close out the week.
After a few light showers Saturday night, the remainder of the holiday weekend will be dry with a continually warmer trend. The overnight rain will be exiting to the East by early Sunday morning. Southeastern parts of the Stateline such as Rochelle and DeKalb may hold onto a slim chance for light rain through 7AM, but mid-morning into afternoon will bring a decrease in clouds, drying things out.
Temperatures Sunday afternoon will approach or surpass the 80-degree mark with more abundant sunshine after midday. Evening and overnight will not be very cool, only seeing lows drop into the mid-50s. Monday will bring another step up in the temperature department, despite some afternoon cloud cover. Mid-80s appear likely, and without any rain, Monday will be a picture-perfect unofficial start to the summer season for any outdoor activities that may be in the plans.
Radar Monday morning may look a little daunting with some showers to the Northwest, but we should see those decay as they approach by midday, resulting in only a few passing clouds locally. The chance for any rain is under 10%. Once the clouds pass by 5PM, the evening and nighttime will be clear once again.
[11PM] Isolated showers persist, mainly along the I-39 corridor. While most will remain dry through the night, a brief period of light rain may be possible where these showers pass overhead. A rumble of thunder may also be possible, as a couple lightning strikes were detected in Bureau County near Walnut, IL. Showers are slowly moving to the Northeast at 10-25 mph. Any lingering showers give way to mid-day sunshine tomorrow.
[8PM] Two main areas of light showers in the Stateline. One pocket is right along the state line between Broadhead, WI and Ridott, IL and another pocket is in Southern Lee County. Both areas of light showers are moving Northeast at only 10-20 mph. A brief shower will be possible ahead of these cells, but many will remain dry this evening.
Heads up to anyone participating in outdoor festivities this evening! A few *very* isolated showers have begun developing West of I-39 and will slowly track East later tonight. Brief downpours and even an isolated bolt of lightning remain possible, but the majority of the area will remain dry at any given time.
Light showers may be possible through the early part of the night, but coverage will likely not reach higher than 30% at any given time. Temperatures will remain mild, with lows only dropping into the 50s.
The upcoming Memorial Day weekend will be largely dry and warm, but an isolated shower cannot be completely ruled out Saturday. Outside of that, dry conditions are expected for both Sunday and Monday, including high temperatures pushing into the upper 70s Sunday and near the mid-80s Monday!
A weak cold front pushing through the area will be the driver behind the stray showers Saturday. The afternoon will end up dry before isolated rain may be possible from 4-11PM across the area. Most of the region will be dry at any given time with only about 20% coverage of rainfall, but a few raindrops may need to be dodged from time to time. An isolated rumble of thunder may also be possible but is not likely.
Limited rainfall coverage will remain a going trend over the next several days with a lack of widespread forcing to produce larger rain events. While a few showers may be possible Saturday evening/night, we will likely end up dry Sunday and Monday before more isolated chances return Tuesday into Wednesday. Whatever rain does fall will not amount to much, with most of the area likely seeing little to no measurable rain through Tuesday.
It's been a dramatic flip in the pattern across northern Illinois this month. We went from soaking rain in April - ranking as the 7th wettest on record - to a notably dry stretch here in May, which is now running as the 4th driest on record so far. The shift has been so significant that portions of northern Illinois are now classified as abnormally dry according to the latest edition of the Drought Monitor.
Rain chances remain limited moving forward. We do have a couple of opportunities to squeeze out some rain - first with a few light showers late Friday into Friday night, and then again Saturday evening into the early stages of Sunday morning.
Even with those windows, this won't be even close to a washout as a ridge of high pressure begins to build aloft, limiting widespread coverage and duration. City Market weather should cooperate, just with a bit more cloud cover overhead. Skies are expected to remain mostly cloudy throughout the event, but conditions will stay dry and comfortable. Temperatures will start off right near the 70-degree mark, then gradually easing back into the low 60s.
Warm Memorial Day:
From there, expect temperatures to climb back above-average over the holiday weekend. Afternoon highs will top out in the low 70s Saturday, upper 70s on Sunday, and then low 80s Monday. With a ridge of high pressure in control aloft, we can expect these 80-degree temperatures to carry on well into the next week, at least into Wednesday.
After one of the wettest Aprils on record, May has been the exact opposite. Warm and dry days have been far more common over the last few weeks. Through the first three weeks of May, the Rockford airport has only received 0.28" of measurable rainfall. Not only is that nearly 2.5" below average, but it is also the driest start to the month since 1992. If we do not accrue a full inch of rain by the end of the month, it will go down as a top 3 driest May on record.
It took a while to dig out of the drought conditions that we carried over from last fall. But since all the drought conditions had been removed back in early April, it only took a few weeks of a dry May to bring abnormally dry contour back into the region. Last week, only about 12% of the state was experiencing abnormally dry conditions. This week, that percentage is more than double, above 24%. The moderate and severe drought in Southern Illinois did not see any change from last week to this week.
But will we see any widespread rain anytime soon? The answer is probably not, as we are beginning to see more summer-like patterns in the atmosphere. The upper levels in particular are set to reach into a blocking pattern with dueling lows on either side of the country. That will force a warm and drier air mass across the Central third of the county, limiting overall rainfall potential.
While it is not totally dry, the rainfall we may see will not amount to much. More soaking rains may be possible South and well West of the area, but much of Illinois/Wisconsin will be removed from the highest rainfall potential over the next 5-7 days. Unfortunately, with more warmth on the way, that could lead to more developing drought conditions.
