Red Flag Warning in place across northern Illinois

Red Flag Warning: 

Yesterday's wildfires across Oklahoma demonstrated how easily dry, warm, and windy conditions can fuel their spread. Because today's weather conditions will be somewhat similar, the National Weather Service has placed all of northern Illinois under a RED FLAG WARNING from 10AM-8PM. 

  

Along with the Red Flag Warning, Winnebago, Ogle, Carroll, Stephenson, and Jo-Daviess Counties as well as Green County in southern Wisconsin will be under a WIND ADVISORY. This will also begin at 10AM and last until 6PM this evening.  

 

  

Timing of Strongest Winds:

Once the cold front passes through, skies clear rather quick, allowing sunshine to return. But the trade-off is wind, a gusty westerly wind that could top out around 40, possibly 45 mph at times. The strongest winds are expected to arrive late this morning and last through much of the afternoon. And typically, a westerly to southwesterly wind promotes a drier air mass, causing relative humidity values to fall below 25%. 

The combination of the very warm temperatures, dry conditions, and gusty winds will allow any fire that develops to spread quickly. 

So please, avoid outdoor burning today. You can also help prevent wildfires by clearing any brush or leaves, disposing of smoking products safely, and double-checking towing chains and tires. Winds will weaken as we head into this evening, remaining light out of the southeast overnight into Thursday.     

A few storms possible Thursday afternoon and evening

 

While it's nothing set in stone just yet, there is a risk for a few thunderstorms in northern Illinois late Thursday afternoon and evening. The higher risk remains just to our south downstate across central Illinois and Indiana. But a few isolated stronger storms could approach our southern counties by Thursday evening.

Showers moving in Tuesday evening will remain light, but a rumble of thunder or two after Midnight is possible as both low pressure and a cold front approach from the west. The low will lift to our northwest, holding temperatures close to 50 degrees overnight! This will help springboard us into the low 60s Wednesday afternoon.

A second system will approach northern Illinois and southern Wisconsin from the southwest Thursday, drawing yet another warm front north into the Stateline during the afternoon and evening. How far the front lifts north will determine just how warm our temperatures get for the afternoon, but I think it'll come close enough to at least get us back into the upper 50s, if not at 60 degrees. A few isolated showers/thunderstorms could develop as early as the afternoon along the warm front, but a cold front moving across west-central Illinois will likely fire off more scattered thunderstorm activity towards Thursday evening.

The Storm Prediction Center has most of central and east-central Illinois and Indiana highlighted under a 'Slight' risk which means scattered strong to severe storms are possible, while a 'Marginal' risk extends up near I-88 in northern Illinois as a few isolated strong to severe storms are possible. But the coverage of any storm activity this far north will depend on just how far north the warm front makes it, and if we end up within the system's narrow 'warm sector'. If that remains to our south, then the chance for thunderstorms will remain south as well. But if even a small portion of the warm sector moves into northern Illinois, then at least part of the region could be dealing with an isolated strong storm or two.

Early season storm set-ups can be a little tricky as even just a change or two in temperature or dew point can mean the difference in storms or no storms. So, as we approach Thursday just make sure you remain weather aware and updated on the forecast.

Fire Weather Watch issued for northern Illinois Wednesday

 

A FIRE WEATHER WATCH has been issued for all of northern Illinois beginning Wednesday morning and lasting through the evening. Conditions throughout the day will become favorable for quickly spreading fires.

Following a few scattered showers and isolated rumbles of thunder Tuesday night, skies will quickly clear during the morning Wednesday. As they do, west/southwest winds will increase as a drier air mass moves in, causing relative humidity values to fall below 25 percent. The combination of a warm temperatures, dry conditions, and gusty winds will allow any fire that develops to spread quickly.

Outdoor burning of any kind is not recommended Wednesday, and it is advised to be very cautious with the disposal of any burning materials. 

Warm temps persist across northern Illinois; Elevated fire risk Wednesday

Weather Throwback: 

"False spring" gave us a gorgeous and record-breaking President's Day as temperatures area-wide surged into the upper 60s. Rockford's Airport wound up with a high of 66 degrees, which crushed our previous record high of 57 degrees from 1921. Though unseasonably warm temperatures are here to stay for a few more days, it will be tough for us to see record warmth considering the 6-day stretch of record highs Rockford saw back in 2017.    

Today's Forecast:  

We'll find ourselves back in the upper 50s as the entire area will spend a majority of the day under a blanket of mid to upper-level clouds. What will be the main driver for today's temperatures climb will be the organized southeast wind that will be in place. At times, gusts could approach 25 mph. Despite the expansive cloud cover, most of the day will be dry, though expect the opportunity for rain showers to go up as we enter the evening hours.  

Next Rain Chance: 

As a warm front lifts northward, a scattered batch of showers will tag along with it. Once the front is to our north, winds will turn back to the southwest, keeping  temperatures warm. We should stay close to the 50 degree mark into Wednesday. The associated cold front will then pass through during the early stages of tomorrow morning. The chance is low but there could be an additional shower or an isolated thunderstorm as the front sweeps through. 

Elevated Fire Risk Wednesday: 

From there, the air mass will quickly dry out for Wednesday, allowing temperatures to once again warm into the low 60s. But this warmup will come with a very strong west to southwesterly wind, with gusts pushing 40 mph. This, along with the warm and dry conditions will likely to elevate the fire risk for many across the Stateline. 

Record high reached, and surpassed, in northern Illinois Monday

 

Back-to-back 60 degree days, in the middle of February?! Yes, please! Sunday's high reached 61 degrees, which didn't quite reach the record of 67, but Monday afternoon we were able to soar well past the record. High temperatures Monday warmed into the mid and upper 60s, with Rockford's high reaching 66 degrees. This smashed the previous record for the 16th of February which was 57 degrees set back in 1921. We likely won't experience anymore record warmth this week, but the front half of the week will remain on the milder side, with a return back to reality by the end of the week.

According to the Chicago National Weather Service, the last time we had two 60 (plus) degree days in a row through this point in February was back on January 7th and 8th, 2008 and then again in 1944 on January 26th and 27th. 60 degree days during the months of January and February are somewhat unusual, occurring only once every 4-5 years.

For the rest of this evening, cloud cover will slowly be on the increase as the warm front that passed us this morning now begins to slowly sink back south into northern Illinois. There have been some clouds that have bubbled up along the boundary, especially in southwest Wisconsin and north-central Illinois. And from that, there could be a few sprinkles that try to develop in southern Wisconsin this evening. Otherwise, look for mostly cloudy skies and temperatures to fall into the upper 30s. Locally dense fog is also possible as the front moves through thanks to higher low-level moisture. This could lead to some travel issues early Tuesday morning.

While temperatures will remain well above average Tuesday afternoon the day won't be nearly as nice. Skies will stay partly sunny following some of the fog early in the morning. Afternoon highs will warm into the mid and upper 50s, but the low 50s are likely east and southeast of Rockford thanks to a southeast breeze. Tuesday afternoon will be dry, but another front will lift north by the evening which will bring in a chance for a few showers after sunset. As the front pulls through, temperatures will remain warm - staying very close to 50 degrees overnight Tuesday.

As a cold front moves in from the west late Tuesday night there is a chance for a few rumbles of thunder during that time, but right now that chance is at about 20%. The air mass will quickly dry out for Wednesday, allowing temperatures to once again warm into the low 60s. But this warmup will come with gusty west winds, pushing relative humidity values down below 30 percent for the afternoon. The warm, dry, and windy conditions for Wednesday are likely to elevate the fire risk for many across northern Illinois and southern Wisconsin. 

Record warmth spills into Northern Illinois as "false spring" continues

Temperature Comparison: 

The "False spring" season is well underway as we've added a few more 50° days and even Rockford's first 60° to the 2026 temperature count. Up until this point last year, the Rockford Airport had yet to see a 60° day and even had less 50° days. 

Record Warmth: 

60s are back in the forecast this afternoon and will likely result in record warmth. Rockford's record high is 57° from 1921 but with the way things are shaping up, we should reach 62° this afternoon. Of course, today's record warmth comes with a good deal of sun but also a gusty wind. Winds will be out of the southwest, gusting up to 30 mph.   

Rain Chances Arrive: 

Clouds will move back in tonight as the warm front sinks back south near the Stateline. This will also bring the risk for patchy dense fog and limit tonight's temperature drop to the upper 30s. Cloud hangs tight for Tuesday in a mostly cloudy fashion and winds will be breezy. This time, flow will be out of the southeast, resulting in mild temperatures in the mid 50s. It won't be close to our record high for February 17th as that is 66° from 2017.   

Forecast models then show an area of low pressure swinging across the Midwest and spiraling towards Lake Superior Tuesday evening. With it will come the scattered chance for showers as well as the possibility for a storm into Wednesday morning. Coverage of this upcoming rain chance will not be high, and only up to a quarter inch may come down in any given location. Temperatures may remain in the upper 40s or warmer all of Tuesday night. 

Breezy few days with record warmth likely Monday

 Under bright sunshine, Sunday afternoon saw temperatures warm into the 60s, including a high of 61 in Rockford! While not quite a record high, we will likely see a broken record with Monday's high temperature.

The milder air lately has not come with much wind, but that will change over the next few days. A series of low pressure systems will begin to increase winds locally Monday morning. By the afternoon, West-Southwest gusts could reach 20-30 mph. Winds will flip to the Southeast Tuesday as a frontal boundary pushes across the area. Behind the low pressure Wednesday, winds will turn Westerly and increase to 25-35 mph gusts.

The more West-Southwest wind Monday will allow for temperatures to surge near or above 60 degrees again despite the added cloud cover. This will more than likely break the record high for February 16th, which is currently 57° set in 1921.

Monday night into Tuesday will feature a cold front sliding in from the North before stalling out overhead overnight. This stationary boundary may produce some areas of fog which could carry over into Tuesday morning. The front will only pull back North of the region Tuesday evening, so we will remain in the 50s for Tuesday afternoon.

Spotty showers will accompany a passing low pressure system Tuesday night, with even a low-end risk for some isolated thunderstorms. Coverage of rain will not be that high, and only up to a quarter inch may come down in any given location. Temperatures may remain in the upper 40s or warmer all of Tuesday night.

The combination of strong winds, another warm day, and much drier air Wednesday will result in an elevated fire risk for the afternoon in particular. Dew point temperatures will drop into the 20s Wednesday afternoon, resulting in low relative humidity. Avoid outdoor burning Wednesday as fires may be able to spread very quickly.