Thankfully, the coolest air is
now behind us and improvements are expected to filter in over the holiday weekend. Starting with today, high pressure sitting to our north will leave us
partly cloudy, though winds will be light out of the northwest. This will limit our ability to effectively warm. In this end, we should manage to
reach the mid 60s.
We have been running a rainfall deficit all spring, as the Rockford airport is now short by about 2" since March 1st. The latest drought monitor from the National Drought Mitigation Center shows much of the region now within a Moderate Drought, a little bit of an expansion from last week's outlook. This data is prior to Tuesday's rainfall of over an inch, so there may be some improvements for next week, but we remain in a dry pattern ahead.
We will remain under the influence of high pressure through the holiday weekend, but Tuesday into Wednesday will bring subtle rain chances. This map shows how much water vapor there is in a vertical column of air, indicating much higher moisture to the South. The high-pressure Northeast will prevent much of that moisture from reaching us until Tuesday and Wednesday, when smaller doses of it reaches this far North. Temperatures will be gradually rising all week as ridging from the West slowly builds in over the week. High temperatures will likely be in the mid-60s through Tuesday, then possibly to the low 70s Wednesday and Thursday.
Looking toward the last week of May and start of June, we will maintain a somewhat dry pattern. The Climate Prediction Center outlook favors drier than average conditions across the upper Great Lakes and Northern Plains. Meanwhile, above average rainfall looks to fall across portions of Texas and New Mexico. Temperatures will look to return near average for us locally, while the cooler pattern continues across much of the Southern part of the country. With broad ridging building into the West, a warmer than average pattern will begin to settle in across the Northern Plains and Pacific NW.
Most of the shower activity has been to the south, falling just outside the viewing area. Winds will remain breezy through the evening as we hold on to at least some cloud cover through the rest of the night. But as drier air moves in, this should help clear our skies heading into Friday morning. Overnight lows will fall into the low 40s.
A northeast to east wind will keep a somewhat drier air mass in place, while showers and thunderstorms occur to the southwest. Some showers may try to sneak into our skies Friday, and then again Sunday, but with any precipitation that would come down it doesn't appear to amount to much. So, if your holiday plans have you spending time outdoors you shouldn't have to worry too much about any significant rainfall.
After a couple days of much needed rainfall, we begin to shift our focus towards the weekend where dry conditions once again look to return! Luckily, with the past few days of rainfall (mainly Tuesday), it won't affect us as much if we stayed dry both days.
The overarching cool pattern we have seen lately will not be going anywhere even though the unofficial start of summer. High pressure will be in place across the Great Lakes and Northern Plains regions, keeping the warmer summer-like air mass displaced well to the South through much of the next week.
An early look at Memorial Day likely will feature high temperatures in the mid-60s with a slim chance for a few spotty showers. If we don't reach the 70-degree mark, it would be the coolest Memorial Day since 2013 in Rockford, when we had a high of 61°! On average, Memorial Day features high temperatures in the mid-70s. Another note: we have seen measurable rain 35% of Memorial Days since 1905 here in Rockford.
The pocket of cooler air will remain influenced by troughing across the Great Lakes region through the early part of next week. Eventually, that will pull away giving us a slow climb back near average highs toward the middle of next week. With troughing overhead, we will also see slim chances for rain Tuesday as well, but Wednesday looks drier and warmer. We may finally reach back to the low 70s by Wednesday, but that will still be below average.
If this continued cool pattern is making you wish for summer, just give it about a month! Average high temperatures will be in the 80s by mid-June, and peak toward the end of June with average highs in the mid-80s.
For the third day in a row high temperatures have failed to warm out of the 50s, with Wednesday temperatures so far only reaching 52 degrees. This is well below our average high of 73 degrees. While we will see a little bit of a warming trend into the holiday weekend, it looks like the cooler pattern will stick around not only into the weekend but also into next week.
Temperatures won't fall off too much as overnight lows dip into the mid-40s. Widely scattered rain showers and drizzle will continue on and off through the night.
As low pressure moves further away from the Stateline it'll begin to take a little more of its moisture with it. However, increasing winds aloft will be moving down the western Great Lakes which could help fire off a few isolated showers with the heating of the day. Any showers that do develop will wane towards evening with perhaps some clearing late in the day.
Afternoon temperatures are expected to remain in the upper 50s, but a few spots could reach the low 60s, especially if we see some sunshine during the afternoon.
Drier air moving in Friday will help clear skies even further as high temperatures warm back into the low to mid 60s. Still not quite where they should be, but a step in the right direction. This high-pressure system will remain in place across the northern Great Lakes through the weekend, but we won't feel much warming from it.
As a trough of low pressure remains anchored across the Northeast our winds aloft will continue from the north in a somewhat active pattern in the jet stream. While the bulk of the storm systems will pass us to the south, we could see a few more clouds from time to time heading into the weekend.
The 'unofficial start to summer' won't necessarily feel like it as temperatures through the weekend remain in the mid-60s, nearly ten degrees below average. While most of the weekend is expected to stay dry there could be a few light rain showers towards the latter half, leading into Memorial Day itself. Even though temperatures will make their way out of the late season chill, we're still going to remain below average. The average high through the weekend should be in the mid-70s.
Any rain that does come down will be light with heavier rain showers, and accumulations, expected to remain south. But light showers from time to time could occur through Monday so keep that in mind if you're holiday weekend plans have you outside.
Beginning with this morning, low clouds, fog, and mist has allowed most Stateline locales to drop below 3 miles in visibility. Be sure to give yourself extra travel time this morning.
