Blowing dust, isolated storms possible across northern Illinois Monday

May the 4th Be With You:

Our weather pattern is embracing the warm side of the force today as unseasonably mild air sweeps into the Stateline ahead of our next cold front. Along with the warmth will come a noticeable breeze, bringing concerns for blowing dust - especially in open and rural areas. And while much of the day will feel like early-summer, the atmosphere may become unsettled later on, with a few storms capable of turning strong to severe during the evening hours. 

The National Weather Service has issued a Special Weather Statement for today's blowing dust threat. Gusty winds combined with dry, exposed soil could lead to sudden reductions in visibility, especially in open and rural areas. This includes Green, Rock, and Walworth Counties in southern Wisconsin, along with all of our counties in northern Illinois. If traveling, be alert for rapidly changing conditions. 

Evening Storm Threat:

As for storms, the entire Stateline is under a Marginal Risk for severe weather today. This means most locations will stay quiet, but isolated storms could pack a punch once they get going. The primary threats will be gusty winds, pockets of large hail, and brief heavy downpours, especially late this afternoon into the evening hours. Not everyone will see a storm, but those that do should be weather aware. 

Much Cooler Tuesday:

This evening's cold front will also bring a noticeable shift in our weather pattern. Behind it, cooler air will quickly settle in, leaving high temperatures in the upper 50s Tuesday and Wednesday.  
 

 

Summer-like afternoon Monday with isolated storms

 While it may only last a day, summer-like warmth will make a return for Monday afternoon as temperatures push into the upper 70s and even near 80 degrees in some locations! That comes with another windy afternoon as Southwest gusts push 30-35 mph at times. Blowing dirt and dust could be another concern in open areas, especially where fields have been tilled already.

We will remain dry throughout the afternoon, but isolated thunderstorms may begin to develop along a cold front by early evening. Storms may initiate between 4-5PM, and linger into the late evening, with highest coverage South of I-88 lasting a bit longer.

Once the front clears the area, storms will be pushed South and out of the Stateline. One computer model pulls storms out as early as 8PM, while others keep isolated storm coverage into the night. Storm coverage will not be very high, only scattered (40-60%) at best. A few showers may linger through the night, but highest coverage will be South of the area into Tuesday morning.

A few of those storms may pose a low-end risk for some damaging wind gusts and large hail. The Storm Prediction Center has placed the Stateline under a Level 1/5 Marginal risk for severe weather, indicating we may see an isolated storm reach severe limits.

Behind the cold front, temperatures quickly drop back below average with afternoon highs in the 50s for a few days next week. This also comes with an isolated shower from time to time, but no single day will be a washout. Thursday looks to bring the highest coverage of showers after Monday night's front, but even that day should feature more dry hours than rainy hours.

Short-term warmup with scattered rain chances

 Despite the cold start to Saturday, temperatures climbed back into the upper 50s for the afternoon highs. We remained dry despite clouds building in during the peak heating of the day. Clouds return again overnight, with a quick-moving wave pushing in from the Northwest. This will bring spotty showers our direction, primarily between 5-10AM. Any given location may only see on and off rain for 3 hours before drying out. About a tenth of an inch may come down.

Once the showers move out by late morning, sunshine returns for the afternoon. Temperatures will climb accordingly, pushing into the upper 60s for some. This will be much closer to average for this time of year. Despite the clear sky the following night, temperatures will only drop toward the low or mid-40s to start off Monday morning.

Monday starts out with a lot of sunshine, pushing temperatures into the mid-70s! But a strong cold front will be knocking on the doorstep by late afternoon, bringing another round of scattered showers and even a low-end chance for some thunderstorms. The severe threat looks very low at this time, with an isolated strong or severe storm possible mainly South of I-80.

Behind Monday's cold front, afternoon highs return to the 50s with isolated rain chances each day, similar to the pattern we were under this previous week. No day will be a washout but could feature on and off showers from time to time. Overnight lows will drop down toward the 30s again several nights next week.

Widespread frost tonight, warming up a bit this weekend

 It was another chilly day in the Stateline with pockets of isolated showers from time to time. Afternoon highs only reached the low to mid-50s for most, about 10-15 degrees cooler than average! As clouds thin out this evening, temperatures will quickly drop into the low 30s for most. Widespread frost is likely under a mostly clear sky and light wind.

Frost/freeze alerts will go into effect tonight and run through Saturday morning. That includes a Freeze Warning for Southern Wisconsin from 12-8AM and Frost Advisory for Northern Illinois from 1-8AM. Protect any sensitive plants that may already be in the ground!

Saturday morning will start with sunshine, but clouds return for the afternoon. While we remain dry, clouds will prevent temperatures from rising much higher than the mid-50s. Sunday brings another jump in temperatures with highs in the 60s but also comes with scattered showers.

May begins with a chill, frost concerns linger

It's Gonna Be MAY:

May brings a big boost in daylight for the Stateline, pushing sunsets after 8PM. By the end of the month, northern Illinois will gain about 50 to 60 minutes of daylight, pushing sunset times closer to 8:30PM. But while evenings grow brighter and brighter, the month kicks off with a lingering chill, reminding us summer isn't here just yet.   

Chilly Friday:

Temperatures will trend even cooler than Wednesday and Thursday with highs reaching the low 50s. A light northwest wind will keep that cool feel in place, and we can't completely rule out a brief sprinkle or shower. An upper-level low lingering over the Great Lakes will send another weak disturbance into the region, keeping clouds around at times but also assisting in today's isolated chance.  

Frost and Freeze Alerts:

Tonight, frost is the main concern. High pressure moving in will help clear skies, allowing temperatures to fall into the low 30s. Green, Rock, and Walworth County have been placed under a FREEZE WARNING whereas northern Illinois has been placed under a FROST ADVISORY. With conditions favorable for frost, be sure to cover or bring in any sensitive or newly planted vegetation.

Weekend Forecast:

As for the weekend, northern Illinois will see a quiet but cool start. Saturday features high pressure, leaving skies partly cloudy with afternoon highs staying in the 50s. Clouds will increase late Saturday into Saturday night as our next storm system approaches. With it will be a scattered rain chance than extends into the first half of Sunday. Temperatures will respond to the newly-introduced southwesterly wind, warming into the mid 60s to wrap up the weekend.   

Frost Advisory issued for some Thursday night

 

Some across northern Illinois and southern Wisconsin woke up to a little frost Thursday morning before clouds rolled in shortly after sunrise. Temperatures dropped into the low 30s where skies were clear a little longer through the night, allowing some of the frost to develop. Where clouds moved in a little earlier, temperatures didn't fall quite as much.

A Frost Advisory will go into effect for southern Wisconsin, including the counties of Green, Rock, and Walworth beginning at Midnight and lasting until 8am Friday. Skies will once again turn partly cloudy overnight allowing temperatures to drop into the low to mid 30s.

Cloud cover will increase during the morning and afternoon as yet another weak low-pressure system moves across northern Illinois, allowing scattered showers to develop during the afternoon and early evening. High temperatures on Friday will warm into the mid 50s.

Another rain chance sneaks in before April ends

Scattered Rain Thursday:

April has delivered no shortage of rain across the northern Illinois area. So far, Rockford has picked up 6.23" inches of rain, keeping the ground soaked and waterways high. And it doesn't look like Mother Nature is finished just yet, with another rain chance lining up before we turn the page to May.  

 

Today's rain will be very similar to the chances we've seen this week, with showers staying scattered and generally light. Because of that, most Stateline locales will only pick up a few hundredths of an inch, with totals staying below a tenth of an inch. Conditions will dry out this evening into tonight, allowing low temperatures to fall into the low 30s. Patchy frost will be a possibility come Friday morning. 

  

Frost Friday Night:

Looking ahead to Friday, quieter but cooler weather settles into northern Illinois. We'll see a mix of sun and clouds, with an isolated sprinkle or shower possible at times, though many will stay dry. Highs will top out in the low 50s, running below-average for this time of year. As skies partially clear into the late-evening and overnight hours, the potential for frost increases into Saturday morning.