Clouds increase Tuesday night ahead of quick moving storm system; Highs back in the 50s for the start of December

 

Temperatures Tuesday afternoon warmed well above the forecast high, reaching the low 50s area wide thanks to an abundance of sunshine and a strong west wind.  Skies remain clear through much of the evening, but increasing cloud cover can be expected through the night as low pressure moves into the Midwest.

That low is currently moving out of southern Canada into far North Dakota, and will remain well north of the Stateline.  Even though it remains to the north, it will pull a warm front through the region during the day Wednesday.

As a result, temperatures will once again warm into the low 50s for the first day of December and the first day of Meteorological Winter!  Meteorological Winter consists of the three month period of December, January and February which are climatologically the coldest three months out of the year, but it looks like the chill may be in short supply, at least for the first few days of the month.

Cloud cover early Wednesday will also bring a chance for a few light showers around sunrise, possibly mixed in with a little sleet as temperatures start off right near freezing.  No accumulations of sleet or ice are expected, and the rain should only last through mid-morning.

Winds will increase behind the departing warm front during the afternoon, gusting to around 25 mph.  The forecast high for Wednesday is currently 52 degrees.  Strong winds in the jet stream will continue to howl from the northwest through Thursday before relaxing just a bit into the day Friday.  Thursday may also start out with a few clouds, but we should see a partly cloudy sky for the afternoon.  A cold front will pass Thursday afternoon, but before that highs during the afternoon are expected to warm into the mid to upper 50s.

Sunshine Returns Today, 50-Degree Stretch Begins Tomorrow

Historically Dry Month:

One would think after observing the 13th wettest October on record that the momentum would carry on into November right? Well, unfortunately mother nature had different plans for us. As we enter the final day of the month, Rockford's monthly total rainfall sits at 0.38", which places this November tied for second with 1976 for driest on record. With plenty of sunshine returning for Tuesday, it looks like this November will go down as one for the record books. 

Sun-filled Tuesday:

Here's a great way to sum up today's forecast. If there was a day to pick out your Christmas tree, or put up the Christmas decorations, TODAY would be the day. Plenty of sunshine is expected from start to finish, with a few clouds mixing in from time to time. Winds today won't be much of an issue like the past couple of days. But with a westerly component in our winds, this will help push our temperatures closer to the 50-degree mark by this afternoon. Tonight begins with partly cloudy skies. However, clouds are expected to increase overnight yet another quick-moving system slides in from the Upper Midwest.

Mild Into December:

Similar to Monday's system, this will bring us a light mix of sprinkles/light rain/light snow during the early stages of Wednesday. Conditions then look to dry out by mid-day, leaving the Stateline under a mostly cloudy sky. 

Despite the cloud cover, temperatures should have no issue cracking the 50-degree mark, especially with our winds being a bit breezy out of the southwest. Thursday features the peak of this upcoming warmth as a little more sunshine will bring our high temperatures into the upper 50s, almost 20-degrees above the normal high for December 2nd. Our next cool-down holds off until this upcoming weekend where highs will fall from the low 50s to the mid to upper 30s.

Busy Monday on Tap, Sunshine Returns in a Big Way for Tuesday

Early Week Wintry Mix?

The weather to round out the Thanksgiving holiday weekend remained quiet, with much of the region sitting under beautiful sunny skies with highs near the 40-degree mark. As we prepare to head back into our normal daily routines, the work week kicks off with the "busiest" day in the weather department. 

A weak disturbance sliding in from the Upper Midwest is set to bring the Stateline a cloudy start, with a slim chance for a light rain/snow mix from the end of the morning commute to about mid-day. Accumulations will be slim to none, with travel impacts remaining low throughout the duration of this event. Once the chances push east, so does the cloud cover as skies are expected to gradually clear throughout the afternoon. Thanks to some late-day mixed sun, highs will touch the low 40s before cooling into the upper 20s/low 30s overnight. 

Sun-filled Tuesday:

Following a busy Monday, a more quiet forecast is on tap for Tuesday. One that features plenty of sun. This will help send temperatures into the upper 40s to round out this roller coaster-like November. While November won't be one for the record books in the temperature department, that can't be said for our monthly precipitation. As of this morning, this month sits tied with November of 1976 for 3rd driest on record with a total of 0.38". 

Warming Up into December:

More of the same can be expected as we roll into the month of December. Despite the fact that skies are likely to be mostly cloudy on Wednesday, an increasing southwesterly breeze will help send our regional temperatures into the low 50s. 

Even with a weak cold front passing through mid-day Thursday, highs remain on either side of the 50-degree mark into the end of the work week. At the same time, the jet stream will slide to the north of the region, keeping away any chance for precipitation until late this weekend.

Above average temperatures heading into December

We had a very frigid start to the morning today when we saw lows reach into the low teens, which was the coldest temperature we saw so far this season. However, we are really in for a flipped script heading into the weekend and beyond. Starting with tonight, we will see overnight lows reach into the mid 20s with light winds that will bring our wind chills into the teens. Skies will continue to remain cloudy.

Tomorrow, we start the day cold, but we will reach into the 40s with our high temperature. There is a slight chance for some rain and snow showers in the early part of the afternoon, but they will be very isolated in nature and most locations will remain dry all afternoon. Winds will start to shift with the approaching clipper system, becoming Northwesterly and stronger by afternoon.

Tomorrow afternoon and evening is downtown Rockford's annual Stroll on State holiday festivities. If you are planning to go out for Stroll on State, make sure to bring an extra layer with you, as winds will pick up in the afternoon and temperatures will drop quickly into the evening as the sun sets.

Looking beyond the weekend, much warmer than average temperatures will be in place. The upper level jet stream will feature ridging and that will develop high pressure at the surface. Warmer than average temperatures will result because of this, and we should see temperatures in the 50s by Thursday. For the record, our average temperature for this time of year is right around 40°F, dipping into the upper 30s by December 1st. 

Through the rest of the week, we will continue to stay dry along with those warmer temperatures. There is the slight chance for rain and snow tomorrow, and then another slight chance for rain on Wednesday, but beyond that, we should remain pretty dry for this week.

This is a very welcome 7-Day, especially considering meteorological winter begins this Wednesday, December 1st. Get out and enjoy some of the sunshine and warmer temperatures while they last!

Chill Lingers for Black Friday, Flurries/Drizzle Possible for Stroll on State

Coldest Morning Thus Far:

Up until yesterday, the coldest morning of the meteorological fall season (so since September 1st) was 18° back on November 19th. Well, the combination of Wednesday night's cold front and a high pressure system moving in has rewritten that statistic as the Stateline is waking up to temperatures in the low to mid teens. 

BRRRR! If you are heading out early to get in on some deals for Black Friday, be sure to dress in extra layers. Along with the frigid cold does come a little sunshine to start, with clouds eventually winning out by the afternoon. 

Black Friday Forecast:

Although a majority of our Friday will be spent under mostly cloudy skies, the weather remains dry. Highs this afternoon remain brisk in the low 30s. However, with light winds out of the northwest/southeast, wind chill values will remain in the teens and 20s. 

In other words, those layers you put on this morning will definitely come in handy for later today. Cloud cover lingers into the overnight hours, with temperatures falling into the low to mid 20s by Saturday morning. Milder temperatures move in for the first half of the weekend. However, I wouldn't be surprised if you do encounter a few rain drops or snowflakes if you're heading downtown for Stroll on State.

Stroll on State Forecast:

Cloud cover wins out the day yet again, with high temperatures jumping into the low 40s. These are seasonable conditions for this time of the year and good news for Stroll on State’s return. The one thing we'll have to keep our eyes on is the arrival of a weak clipper system. 

Guidance does show this system moving overhead by the early afternoon hours, bringing a low chance for light rain showers and patchy drizzle. Temperatures aloft will be cold enough for the possibility for a few flurries. If anything does fall, it will be very light and will be around Saturday afternoon into the early evening. Then quiet weather returns starting Sunday with partly cloudy skies and highs in the upper 30s to near 40 degrees.

Clearing skies Thanksgiving night means a cold start Friday morning

 

There were plenty of chills to be felt Thanksgiving afternoon as temperatures held steady in the mid to low 30s.  Officially the high temperature was 45 degrees, but that was reached shortly before 4am.  Once the colder air kicked in temperatures continued their slow fall throughout the day.  Breezy Northwest winds also kept wind chills for most of the afternoon in the 20s. 

Cloud cover was in abundance as well, but started to
clear from west to east just as the sun was setting.  Temperatures, as a result, will begin to fall a little faster under the clearing sky and winds that should be weakening as high pressure builds in.  Some of the coldest air we've felt so far this season is on tap Friday morning, with low temperatures dipping into the low to mid teens.  The official forecast low for Rockford is 12 degrees.  Our coldest morning so far has been 18 degrees, back on the morning of the 23rd and 19th.

As quick as the skies are to clear Thursday night, the cloud cover will roll back in Friday as moisture moves in from the northwest.  The extremely dry air should limit any precipitation from falling during that time, but look for the cloud cover to thicken up throughout the day.  High temperatures are expected to only make it to the low to mid 30s.

Remaining Quiet, But Cooling Back Down For Thanksgiving

Cooling Back Down:

Despite having a mostly cloudy sky for a majority of our Thanksgiving Eve, temperatures during the afternoon still managed to climb into the mid to upper 50s. Unseasonably warm when you compare that to late-November climatology as average highs are typically in the low 40s. But I do hope that you were able to enjoy the gorgeous day we had on Wednesday as temperatures are expected to cool back down thanks to last night's cold front.

Thanksgiving Shivers:

Behind Wednesday night's frontal passage, winds locally immediately changed to the northwest, which allowed a much cooler air-mass to usher in from southern Canada. 

Under a mostly cloudy to overcast sky, temperatures slowly cooled down this morning, with most spots landing in the upper 30s. Wind chills for some, because of the wind shift, are ranging from the low to upper 20s. If you have any last minute plans that you want to get done this morning, be sure to bundle up!

Chill Lingers into Friday:

Today's northwest breeze will keep the cold around, with wind chills falling into the teens by dinner-time. Fortunately, guidance does show this morning's cloudy and gloomy weather giving way to some late-day sunshine. Clouds will continue to clear out as we head into tonight, leaving us with mostly clear skies. 

That, along with winds easing up will allow temperatures to bottom out into the mid to upper teens by Friday morning. It looks like we'll manage to sneak in a few peeks of sunshine during the early stages of Friday, with clouds quickly gathering up by mid to late morning. Forecast highs Friday afternoon will only reach the low to mid 30s.

Warm & Windy Wednesday, Cooling Down for Thanksgiving

Warm, Windy Wednesday:

Thanks to a plethora of sunshine, and a decent breeze out of the south and southwest, our highs recovered quite nicely Tuesday afternoon with most landing in the mid to upper 40s. I say "recovered quite nicely" because it was only 24 hours prior that the Stateline failed to see temperatures climb out of the 30s. 

Wednesday kicks off with a few peeks of sunshine before clouds gather up by mid to late morning. Despite the increase in cloud cover, an uptick in our temperatures is set to continue as a gusty southerly/southwesterly wind will push highs into the low 50s this afternoon. Sounds like we're heading in the right direction right? Well, cue tonight's cold front.

Tonight's Cold Front:

In a very November 2021-like fashion, this warm-up is short-lived thanks to a cold front that's scheduled to slide through overnight. A few showers, especially south of highway 20, will be possible late this evening with chance stretching into the early hours of tonight. 

Those that do get in on the wet weather can expect it to be rather brief and quite light, with accumulation remaining under than a few hundredths of an inch. Shortly before midnight, guidance shows conditions drying out, leaving us under a mostly cloudy sky. Winds post cold-frontal passage will immediately change to the northwest, allowing another shot of cold-air to sink down from Canada. 

Thanksgiving Forecast: 

Cloud cover lingers into Thanksgiving morning, with temperatures falling into the low 30s. While guidance does show clouds slowly clearing during the afternoon, highs will be limited to the upper 30s thanks to a linger northwest breeze. By the time the turkey is ready to be served, temperatures will be sitting on either side of the 30° mark. 

Friday begins in the teens, with highs only peaking in the low to mid 30s. The weather warms up a little once we get into the upcoming weekend. Highs both Saturday and Sunday reach the low 40s. The only chance for precipitation comes in the form of a weak clipper system late Saturday, which may bring a few light rain and snow showers to the area. But it looks like this clipper system is quick to exit, allowing dry conditions to settle in for Sunday. 

Gusty Winds Bring Warmer Temperatures Ahead of the Thanksgiving Holiday

What Goes Up Must Come Down:

Even though we're still technically in the fall season until the 21st of December, old man winter has made his presence known on multiple occasions during the month of November. Mostly in the form of huge temperature swings such as the one we encountered over the last 48 hours. 

Highs Monday afternoon ranged from the low 30s to the upper 30s, falling well below the average high for November 22nd which is 44-degrees. With that being said, winds will take a turn to the southwest beginning today, allowing a warming trend to commence that looks to continue into the middle of the work week.

Gusty Stretch Ahead:

Sunshine continues, with a southerly to southwesterly breeze developing by the afternoon. This breeze will help get our temperatures out of the 30s and push them into the mid to upper 40s. Winds at times will be capable of peaking around 20-25 mph, so it shouldn't bring any impacts to those traveling during the evening commute. 

But that can't be said for those who plan to travel on Wednesday as the pressure gradient looks to tighten up a bit more, resulting in an uptick in winds. Gusts both overnight tonight and throughout the day on Wednesday could range from 25 to 30 mph, with a few isolated gusts up to 35 mph. This may make traveling a bit bumpy for those hitting the roads for the Thanksgiving holiday.

Wednesday's Cold Front:

Clouds are expected to thicken up as these strong south-southwesterly winds helps pull in more moisture into the Stateline. This will eventually lead to a chance for a few light showers late in the day into Thanksgiving morning, with much of the heavier activity remaining south of the Stateline. 

Believe it or not, Wednesday is actually going to be the warmest day of the next seven as highs peak in the low to mid 50s. Once the cold front marches through Wednesday night, temperatures are expected to plummet back to the 30s for the Thanksgiving holiday. Much of the day remains dry, with some clearing possible by the afternoon. Friday features a similar forecast, though temperatures will end up cooler in the low 30s.

Warm up expected leading into Thanksgiving Day holiday

Temperatures Monday afternoon were quite a bit cooler compared to the 50s that were recorded over the weekend.  Highs throughout the area Monday struggled to make it out of the 40s, holding in the mid to upper 30s, roughly 5-10 degrees colder than the average high for the end of November. 

A weak upper level disturbance moving through the Midwest will bring a few more clouds overhead for some Monday evening, but should clear out after 8pm/9pm.  As high pressure moves closer to the Stateline, temperatures will plummet through the 20s, down into the mid teens overnight.  A few of the more typical cold spots could dip into the low teens, from Rochelle to Freeport.  Wind speeds, however, will be lighter than Monday morning but wind chills will still hoover around 10 degrees. 

High pressure will move into the Southeast, shifting winds around to the south Tuesday.  After a cold start Tuesday morning, afternoon temperatures will warm into the low to mid 40s.  Wind speeds, however, will also increase gusting to 25  mph during the afternoon, increasing to around 30-35 mph Tuesday night and Wednesday.

A slight increase in moisture Tuesday night will allow a little more cloud cover to build holding
overnight lows in the mid to upper 30s.  The warmer start will set the stage for a much warmer Wednesday as high temperatures climb into the low 50s.  A delay in cloud cover could even bring highs into the mid and upper 50s!

But a cold front moving in overnight Wednesday will bring temperatures crashing back down Thursday afternoon, with numbers hoovering in the

low 30s for much of the day.  Blustery northwest winds will also hold wind chills in the 20s.  Thursday night we see temperatures drop into the teens, rising only into the 30s for Friday afternoon.  A couple clipper-like systems moving in our direction for the start of the weekend could bring in some precipitation, both Friday afternoon and Saturday night into Sunday.  Right now the chance for that appears low, something to monitor if your travel plans take you out this weekend.

Bundle Up Everyone! Thanksgiving Week Start Off with a Winter-Like Chill

Early Week Chill:

Thanksgiving week is kicking off on a very winter-like note thanks to a pair of cold fronts that quietly came through during the day Sunday. Temperatures for most of our local airports have significantly fallen from the mid to upper 50s yesterday to the upper teens and low 20s this morning. 

Thankfully, winds aren't nearly as strong as they were on Sunday. But, even the slightest wind will be capable of bringing our wind chill values down into the single-digits before mid-morning. So it goes without saying that you should dress for the weather this morning and put on a few extra layers before you step out the doorway. With high pressure in control, sunshine is expected to dominate our skies for most if not all of the day Monday.

Aside from a few passing clouds during the afternoon, a lingering northwesterly breeze will keep our temperatures in check. Highs to kick off the week are only expected to climb into the mid 30s, which if you're keeping score lands 20°-25° cooler than highs Sunday afternoon. 

This early-week chill is expected to continue into Tuesday morning, with overnight lows falling back down into the upper teens. Winds then take a turn to the southwest, gusting up to 25 to 30 mph at times. This will help temperatures bounce back into the upper 40s by Tuesday afternoon and then the low 50s by Wednesday.Guidance then shows our next cold front sliding through Wednesday night, bringing another quick drop in temperatures just in time for the Thanksgiving holiday.

Thanksgiving Forecast:

With that cold front does come a small chance for a few showers to linger into the Thanksgiving holiday. But guidance continues to show us drying out by the afternoon with temperatures only peaking in the mid to upper 30s. 

Another cooler-than-average day is anticipated for Friday with highs hovering around the 40-degree mark for the upcoming weekend. As far as any travel impacts are concerned. Expect few, if any significant issues straight through the holiday weekend. A system sliding to our west and southwest may bring a slight chance for a passing shower or two Saturday. But we'll have to see if models continue to trend in that direction over the next few days. 

Single digit wind chills expected Monday morning

 

When you wake up Monday morning it will feel more like January or February, rather than late November, as wind chills are expected to plummet into the teens late Sunday night, and then single digits by Monday morning.  A strong cold front passed through the region early Sunday bringing with it a few light rain showers, but also a lot of wind during the afternoon and evening.  While for most the wind gusts were below 40 mph, a few locations had peak wind gusts reach 40-45 mph, with Rockford recording a peak wind gusts of over 50 mph.

The strong winds will subside some through the night, but remain around 20 mph through morning.  Strong high pressure currently moving through the northern Plains will remain west of the Mississippi River during much of the day Monday, keeping winds from the northwest through the evening.  Wind speeds won't be nearly as strong as Sunday, but a breeze around 20 mph will keep afternoon wind chills in the mid to upper 20s.

This after chills start out in the single digits Monday morning as the actual air temperature dips into the mid to upper teens; our coldest night so far this Fall season.  Make sure to drees in layers before heading out.  High temperatures Monday afternoon will only warm into the low to mid 30s, roughly 20 degrees colder than temperatures were Saturday and Sunday.  

Monday morning won't be our only cold start to the day this week as temperatures are once again forecast to drop into the low to mid teens.  Wind chills, however, won't be quite as cold as winds late Monday night and Tuesday morning are expected to be much more light thanks to the center of high pressure closer to the Stateline.  Highs on Tuesday will warm into the mid 40s.

Chill Sticks Around For Friday, Warming Up This Weekend

Cold Friday Morning:

There it is folks! The Stateline saw it's first single-digit wind chill of the season as Rochelle for a brief moment felt like 9-degrees. BRRRR. As far as temperatures are concerned, most were able to drop into the mid to upper teens thanks to a mostly clear night and light surface winds. 

So, you don't want to leave the house this morning without putting on a few extra layers to stay warm. The chill does hang around for our Friday before we see a significant jump in our daily highs for the upcoming upcoming weekend. 

Remaining Chilly:

Friday begins on a sun-filled note, with clouds increasing into the afternoon. Although our wind flow is out of the south and southeast today, temperatures only climb a few degrees from yesterday. Most of our local airports should land in the upper 30s, with a spot or two hitting the 40-degree mark. 

One positive to today's forecast is that we don't have to deal with a gusty wind like we did during the later half of Thursday. Winds throughout the day stay light, with gusts only topping out around 15 mph. Cloud cover hangs around into the overnight hours as a weak disturbance slides in from the Upper Midwest. We may see the sun peek out a few times on Saturday. But the biggest difference as we move into the weekend is our jump in temperatures. 

Warmer Weekend:

It feels like the temperature roller coaster we've been on during the month of November is never-ending. Fortunately for us, temperatures will be on the rise into the weekend. With winds being more out of the southwest Saturday, highs will quickly climb into the low 50s, landing 10°-15° warmer than highs this afternoon. 

Guidance does show a  disturbance sliding in late Saturday bringing with it a small chance for showers Saturday night. Rain chances continue into Sunday, with temperatures falling back into the upper 40s. After the cold front slides through, another round of cold air is expected to sink down from the Upper Midwest and southern Canada, resulting in a drop in our temperatures into next week. The work week kicks off with lows falling into the upper teens and low 20s, with highs only climbing into the low 30s by Monday afternoon. 

Windy Thursday Ahead, Weather Cooperates for Tonight's Partial Lunar Eclipse

Split Down The Middle:

The Stateline has experienced quite the roller coaster ride when it comes to our daily high temperatures during the month of November. If we set aside the only seasonable day which was back on the 5th, the amount of above-average days and below-average days is split right down the middle. With that being said, the fluctuation in our temperatures is expected to continue thanks to the strong frontal boundary that came through Wednesday morning.

Windy, Cold Thursday:

The frigidly cold air that we're waking up to this morning makes yesterday's warmth feel like a distant memory. Temperatures this time around are starting off 25° to 30° cooler, with most registering in the upper 20s and low 30s. 

It goes without saying that you'll want to put on a few extra layers before it's time to step out the door. Sunshine kicks the day off, but a disturbance sliding in from the Upper Great Plains will help clouds gather by the mid-day hours. This does bring the potential for a few flurries this afternoon.

But the combination of the increase in clouds, plus today's gusty northwest wind will limit high temperatures to the upper 30s. If you plan to travel, especially during the afternoon and early-evening hours, use extra caution. 

Winds will be strongest during this time frame, with gusts peaking between 30-35 mph. Guidance does show clouds clearing out, and winds easing up a bit as we head into the overnight hours. For those that have their alarms set to view tonight's partial lunar eclipse, it looks like the weather will cooperate for us to view the entire event.

Tonight's Partial Lunar Eclipse:

Although the weather remains dry overnight, it's the cold you'll want to prepare for if you plan on viewing tonight's lunar eclipse. Temperatures when the eclipse maxes out (around 3:02AM) will be dropping into the mid to low 20s, with wind chills registering in the teens. 

The heavier coat will be a must, along with a few extra layers. The same goes for those heading out Friday morning. Another quiet weather day on Friday, with partly to mostly cloudy skies on tap. Temperature, while still below-average, will end up closer to the 40-degree mark by the afternoon.

Big Changes Follow This Morning's Strong Cold Front

Showers Possible Early:

While it seems that the overall likelihood for a round of showers this morning has trended downward, a chance still remains up until mid-morning. Anything that falls will be light or drizzly, so we won't pick up much rainfall. The bigger weather story with this morning's cold front is the gusty winds and rush of cold air that slides in behind it. This will help drop our high temperatures for the second half of the work week.

Cooling Down Post-Front:

Winds following this morning's frontal passage will immediately shift to the northwest, allowing a much colder air-mass to usher in from the Upper Great Plains. This will help us go from the upper 50s around sunrise to the mid to upper 40s by the end of the afternoon. A majority of our Wednesday will be spent under mostly cloudy skies, with some clearing expected to occur during the evening hours. This will set the stage for radiational cooling to take place overnight, bringing temps down into the upper 20s by Thursday morning. 

Cold, Windy Thursday:

Sunshine returns Thursday, but it won't help our temperatures much as afternoon highs only peak in the mid to upper 30s. Similar to today, winds will be a big part of Thursday's forecast. The only difference however, they will pack more of a punch. Winds will be out of the west-northwest, gusting up to 25-30 mph at times, with isolated gusts up to 35 mph. After falling into the upper 20s Thursday morning, overnight lows will be even colder come Friday morning, with most in the low 20s. 

Partial Lunar Eclipse:

You may have already heard about this but a partial lunar eclipse is scheduled to occur during the early stages of Friday morning. It's considered a "partial" eclipse mainly due to the fact that 99% of the moon will be covered by the earth's shadow. 

According to the National Weather Service, this will be the longest partial lunar eclipse since 1441, which is exactly 580 years ago. We'll have approximately a six hour window, with the partial eclipse beginning at 1:18AM, ending around 4:47AM. The weather looks to cooperate as high pressure remains in control for Thursday night and Friday morning. You'll just want to dress in extra layers as temperatures will be falling into the low 20s!