Multiple storm chances likely this weekend, some being severe

A look at water vapor imagery this morning shows the two storm systems that will help drive this weekend's active weather. The first being the low that is spinning over the central plains and the second which is making landfall along the west coast.  

For the most part, the severe threat this afternoon will reside further to the west closer to the low. Locally, heavy rain and small hail will be possible as a few showers and thunderstorms track through during the midday/late afternoon hours. 

A secondary round of showers and thunderstorms is then expected to track in shortly after sunset, with chances lasting into early Saturday. These will be a little more intense, having a better chance for heavy downpours as well as hail.

Despite having a gusty southeasterly wind in place, highs will be limited to the upper 50s, close to 60-degrees. Temperatures from there will remain steady in the upper 50s into Saturday morning.

Saturday has been trending drier and drier by the day as what is known as a "cap" or atmospheric lid keeps storm chances low during the daylight hours. 

With that being said, I would keep an eye on the radar if you have plans Saturday afternoon. If any storm were to break said cap, it would quickly strengthen and become severe. At this moment in time, the chance of that happening is very low. 

What will be present however is a decent amount of sunshine, a stronger southwesterly wind, and highs in the upper 70s, close to 80-degrees.

Gusts Saturday, especially during the late morning and early afternoon hours, look to peak around 45mph. Chances for showers and thunderstorms are then set to increase into Saturday night. 

Sunday's severe threat will be dependent on two things, the first being what occurs with thunderstorm activity to our west Saturday night. The second, the arrival of the secondary upper-level system. Taking these uncertainties into account, the Storm Prediction Center has placed the entire region under a level 1 of 5 Marginal Risk for severe weather. Remember to stay weather aware this weekend, especially if you have any outside plans! 

Freeze Warning Issued Wednesday night

 

A Freeze Warning is now in effect for all of northern Illinois and southern Wisconsin as overnight temperatures will fall into the upper 20s and low 30s.

Skies will remain mostly clear overnight as just a few high-level clouds move in from the northwest. The combination of lighter winds, clear skies, and low dew point temperatures will allow evening temperatures to drop quickly after sunset, falling as low as 28 or 29 degrees in some locations by Thursday morning. The current forecast low for Rockford is 31 degrees.

Frost and freeze conditions are expected which will harm, or kill, sensitive vegetation if left unprotected outside. If you do have any sensitive plants or vegetation, you'll want to either cover them or bring them inside tonight. 

Northern Illinois placed under Freeze Watch

Tuesday was the 4th day in a row where the Stateline saw highs end up warmer than the previous day. 

After ending up in the low 40s Saturday, upper 50s Sunday, and upper 60s on Monday, temperatures peaked in the low 70s Tuesday.

Now, I wish I could say that yesterday's 70s were here to stay for more than one day. Unfortunately, that isn't the case as cooler air continues to spill into the region behind Tuesday's potent cold front.

Wednesday starts off with lingering clouds, but also temperatures in the low to mid 30s. As we inch closer towards mid-morning, the expectation is for clouds to decrease, leaving us with plenty of sun. 

What's going to limit our potential to warm efficiently will be today's breeze off of Lake Michigan. Though not as strong as Monday and Tuesday, gusts up to 20 mph will be possible. This will leave our highs in the mid to possibly upper 50s.

From there, the perfect formula will be in place for the likelihood for frost into Thursday. It's for that reason that the National Weather Service has place our entire region under a FREEZE WATCH. This will run from 12AM to 8AM Thursday.

If you have done any early-season planting, make sure those plants are covered. Any potted plants must be brought indoors to avoid being damage.

Few storms possible this afternoon, low severe threat

Temperatures have been on the up and up, peaking in the upper 60s Monday afternoon. With Monday's 60° weather however came a rather robust southwesterly wind, gusting up to 35 mph at times. 

It's because of this warm wind that temperatures are starting out much more comfortable this morning, with most sitting in the low to mid 50s.

Winds remain gusty out of the southwest as our next cold front approaches from the west. This will allow highs to creep closer to the 70° mark. Unlike Monday however, this potent cold front will also generate enough lift in our atmosphere for a few showers and thunderstorms to develop. 
   

This would be during the mid to late afternoon hours, with severe potential remaining low. With that being said, one or two of these storms could become strong enough to become severe warned. 

If that were to be the case, strong winds and large hail would be the biggest concerns. The Storm Prediction Center does have areas east of Janesville, Freeport, Mount Morris, and Amboy under a level 1 Marginal Risk for severe weather. 

Post-cold front, our weather pattern briefly cools down for the middle of the work week. Temperatures overnight will fall into the low 30s, only peaking in the low 50s Wednesday afternoon. 

Despite the cooler trend in temperatures, Wednesday remains dry under partly cloudy skies! This dry stretch will carry on into Thursday, with highs ending up back in the low 60s! 

Clouds thicken Monday ahead of a light rain showers Monday evening

 

Cloud cover will continue to thicken up Monday evening ahead of a cold front that'll pass through the region Tuesday morning. A few showers have been developing on radar but the dry air mass at the surface has prevented a lot of the rain from actually reaching the ground. Nonetheless, a shower or two can't be ruled out around 8pm/9pm.

Increasing winds in the jet stream Tuesday morning will allow a few showers to occur, but mostly for those south of I-88. A quick push of dry air Tuesday afternoon will allow skies to clear and temperatures to warm into the upper 60s. This warmth combined with colder temperatures aloft will cause the air to rapidly rise from the surface. This quick rising air will help increase some of the instability in the atmosphere, despite dew point temperatures only in the upper 40s, to right around 50 degrees.

A few isolated thunderstorms will be possible during the afternoon and early evening, with the greatest chance lining up from around McHenry County, down through DeKalb, Ogle, and Lee counties. Within the stronger thunderstorms hail up to quarter size (one inch in diameter) will be possible. There is also a small chance that we may see some funnel clouds develop, especially for any storm that forms right along the surface boundary. The chance for that is low, but it's there.

Once the storm threat passes skies will turn partly cloudy as high pressure moves across the eastern Great Lakes. Temperatures Tuesday night will fall into the low to mid 30s. Winds will remain slightly elevated which should prevent frost from developing, but patchy frost may be possible for some early Wednesday. A better chance for frost will occur Wednesday night and Thursday morning.

  

Frost Advisory in place early, windy and warm Earth Day ahead

It's another chilly late-April morning for many as frost advisories stretch from the Oklahoma/Arkansas border to Cape Cod, Massachusetts.

The portion that includes all of our northern Illinois counties runs until 8AM. 

With Monday's forecast comes a mixed bag of news, including an increasing southwest wind, increasing clouds, and a quick warm up. 

The best chance for sunshine will be during the morning hours as clouds are expected to gather up after the mid-day hours. This, along with a rather robust southwesterly wind will help temperatures warm nicely into the upper 60s. 

Forecast models then show the first of two early-week opportunities for rain moving in tonight, primarily between sunset and midnight. 

This will be in the form of a few light showers, with most of the precipitation staying north of the Illinois/ Wisconsin border. The second comes with a cold front which looks to slide through the region late in the afternoon Tuesday. 

Tuesday's chance will have a bit more "ummph" to it, allowing a few non-severe storms to be possible. All in all, the heaviest rain looks to occur well south of the region in central Illinois. 

We then cool off for the middle of the week as highs go from the upper 60s to the low 50s. This cool down is brief as highs look to climb back into the 60s starting Thursday, then 70s starting Saturday. With this massive warm up comes an active stretch of weather that will bring the chance for storms Friday, Saturday, and Sunday. 

In the Storm Prediction Center's latest long-range severe outlook, they have taken the entire Stateline out of the 15% risk. Areas west of the Mississippi River remain under what is equivalent to a level 2 slight risk for severe weather.

Changes are expected in the coming days, so make sure to check the forecast frequently!

Frosty start Sunday morning; Plenty of sunshine Sunday afternoon

 

Skies were able to clear Saturday night following a windy and cloudy afternoon. Afternoon temperatures only warmed into the low 40s, nearly 20 degrees below our average high!

Quite the opposite will hold true for Sunday afternoon as skies are expected to remain mostly sunny with temperatures reaching the upper 50s. Still a few degrees below average, but warmer than Saturday.

Northwest winds will increase throughout the day gusting 20-25 mph, easing once again Sunday night. Patchy frost will be possible, but a slightly warmer air mass will move in as winds turn to the southwest Sunday night. This will hold temperatures in the low to mid 30s.

Southwest winds will increase Monday, gusting to 30 mph late into the afternoon. This will help bring temperatures into the mid-60s, but also increase the fire risk during the day due to low relative humidity values. Cloud cover will increase Monday evening ahead of a warm front that'll bring a few scattered showers overnight Monday, into Tuesday morning. 

Those showers will pass to the east Tuesday morning with skies turning partly cloudy by the afternoon. West winds will increase bringing temperatures into the upper 60s. A cold front will arrive late Tuesday afternoon, shifting winds back around to the north but also giving us a chance for a few isolated thunderstorms for the afternoon. Severe weather isn't expected but a few of the stronger storms will be capable of small hail and gusty winds. Skies will dry out Tuesday night with highs briefly falling back into the low 50s Wednesday.

   

Freeze warning in effect for some, frost likely Sunday morning

Saturday begins with the first of many chances for the Stateline to see frost. 

A FREEZE warning is currently in place for Carroll, Jo-Daviess, Stephenson, and Whiteside County in N. Illinois as well as Green County in S. Wisconsin until 8AM this morning. 

 

 

Today also begins with plenty of sun, with clouds building in for the afternoon. This, along with a chilly breeze out of the northwest will limit afternoon highs to the upper 40s. Though winds won't be as strong as they were yesterday, gusts up to 25-30 mph will be possible throughout the day. 

Expect clouds and surface winds to decrease into the overnight hours, allowing temperatures to land at or below the freezing mark of 32°. This will allow the likelihood for frost Sunday morning. Again, if you planted any sensitive vegetation early, cover them or bring them inside before you head to bed!

Sunday will be the more enjoyable day of the weekend as clouds won't be an issue. Temperatures will be noticeably warmer in the upper 50s. Frost will once again be a possibility Sunday night as lows dip back into the mid to upper 30s. The limiting factor, a light wind out of the west-southwest! 

Afternoon highs will continue to climb into early next week as winds remain out of the southwest. This will bring highs back into the low 60s Monday.

Frosty mornings expected across northern Illinois this weekend

Frost advisories and freeze warnings are in effect this morning across the Midwest, none of which contain counties here in the Stateline.

Temperatures are a tad too warm for frost to develop as most are starting out their day in the upper 30s. However, I do think with how overnight lows are trending for the weekend that we'll be seeing our fair share of frost and freeze alerts. 

The big headline today, gusty winds. Westerly winds will steadily increase after sunrise, gusting up to 35 to 40 mph at times this afternoon. 

Despite plenty of sunshine, today's wind will limit high temperatures to the mid to upper 50s. Winds will ease after sunset but remain breezy for the overnight hours. This is the main reason why we won't get in on widespread frost Saturday morning. 

Sunshine continues into the weekend. However, tomorrow will feature a northwesterly breeze, with  gusts up to 20-25 mph. This will further cool our afternoon highs, landing most in the low 50s. 

Winds lighten up into Saturday night. This will allow radiational cooling to be more effective, landing temperatures near the freezing mark (32°) by Sunday morning. Long story short, widespread frost will be likely. Frost will also be likely Monday morning as conditions remain quiet into early next week.

Shower chances continue into Thursday, severe weather unlikely

Multiple rounds of severe storms were quick to form across the Midwest, but took their sweet time to cross the Mississippi into the Stateline.

Once they did, the tornado threat lessened, leaving damaging winds as the biggest concern. All in all, Tuesday's severe weather event accounted for 17 tornado reports (mainly in Iowa), 69 damaging wind reports, and 35 large hail reports.

Thankfully, severe weather is not on the table today as this storm system continues to slowly spiral to the north and east of the region. 

Portions of the Midwest and the Ohio Valley/lower Great Lakes have the best chance for strong to severe storms. But that doesn't mean we escape the clouds and the chance for a few lingering showers.

Shower chances will be best before midday, through the chance for a spotty shower or two will linger into the mid-afternoon hours. That, along with a rather gusty wind (up to 40 mph) out of the west will keep temperatures steady in the mid 60s. 

Cloud cover and winds will decrease this evening, leaving us with quiet conditions into Thursday. But as quick as the clouds were to leave, we can expect them to gather up quickly tomorrow morning as our next system slides in from the west. 

Thursday is going to be the day where you'll have to have the umbrella with you from start to finish. Rain will move through in a scattered fashion, leaving behind .10" to .25" for most. 

From Friday on, we'll see less rain chances and more opportunities for sunshine. High temperatures do cool into the low 50s Saturday before climbing back into the low 60s for early next week.

Severe weather update: All hazards possible Tuesday evening-Tuesday night

After a remarkably warm and sun-filled stretch, all eyes are now on the deepening area of low pressure that resides over the central plains.

This will bring not one, but two opportunities for local severe weather. The second of course being the more significant of the two. 

To start, the Storm Prediction Center expanded the level 3 enhanced risk over the Mississippi to now include our far western regions. 

This leaves the remainder of the Stateline, areas east of Galena, Savanna, and Sterling, under a level 2 slight risk for severe weather. As this storm system glides into western Iowa, it will help lift a warm front northward and place it across northern Illinois by the afternoon. 

South of this warm front will be the more conclusive environment for severe weather, especially later on in the day. Ahead of the frontal boundary, we may see the opportunity for scattered elevated storms up until midday. The severe threat with this round is very low, though the potential for large hail will exist with the stronger and longer-lived updrafts. 

From there, one of the big uncertainties or question marks will be if we see sunshine or not during the afternoon. If so, this will allow the atmosphere to recover and allow the warm front to lift into the region, resulting in a higher chance locally for severe weather late this afternoon into the evening. Our main window for strong to severe storms continues to be from 4PM-11PM, with all hazards including tornadoes being on the table. 

Again, the position of the warm front as well as the amount of afternoon sunshine will be key to who gets in on today's severe potential.

Another concept of today's severe weather threat that we'll have to keep an eye on is storm mode. Will these storms become isolated enough to pose a threat for all severe hazards, or will they be pushing through in clusters. Storms that are in clusters significantly drop the chances for tornado development. 

The window for severe storms will close before the midnight hour, leaving us mostly cloudy and fairly dry into Wednesday. Again, be weather aware and have plans in place in the event a severe thunderstorm or tornado warning is issued. 

The same storm system will be spinning to our north by this time, allowing the chance for scattered showers to continue. It's not until Friday that this active stretch of weather comes to a close. Tagging along with the dry weather however will be cooler temperatures. Highs by Friday peak in the mid-50s, with low 50s expected over the weekend.

Sunshine and warmth continues ahead of Tuesday's severe threat

From the 70s to the 80s, that's what temperatures did over the weekend allowing Rockford to its first 80-degree day since last October! 

To compare, our average first 80° day usually occurs towards the end of April. In fact, hitting these temperature milestones early has been the trend in 2024 as Rockford has observed its first 60°, 70°, and 80° day ahead of schedule.

High pressure building in from the west will make today another "get outside" or "open windows" type day. Skies remain sun-filled from start to finish, with the mercury peaking in the mid to upper 70s. In a similar fashion to this past weekend, make sure to use sunscreen to prevent sunburn! 

With the approach of our next storm system trending slower, tonight is trending drier with cloud cover increasing towards daybreak. 

As previously discussed, Tuesday continues to be the day that holds our next chance for storms, some of which could be strong to severe. 

The Storm Prediction Center overnight continued to keep a a majority of the Stateline under a level 2 of 5 slight risk. A enhanced risk (level 3 of 5) exists in areas to our south and west.  

 

When it comes to whether we'll have an active start to our Tuesday, we'll have to keep an eye on the activity that develops over the plains this evening. If this activity were to fizzle out prior to making it to the Stateline, that'll leave us dry with the best chance for storms holding off until the late afternoon. If storms maintain strength, most if not all of the activity will pass through below severe criteria. 

Storms from northeast Missouri and southeast Iowa take aim at the Stateline, tracking through between 4PM-10PM. All hazards will be on the table, including a few tornadoes. This is why you should also take time today to make sure your severe shelter is stocked up and prepared. It will also be important to have multiple ways to get watches and warnings. Lingering showers and storms remain possible into Wednesday as the system's cold front sweeps through. Temperatures cool following the departure of this week's storm system, landing in the low 50s Friday and Saturday.

First 80-degree day in the Stateline

 

Temperatures Sunday afternoon were more typical of what we would feel in early July rather than mid-April. Highs warmed well into the 80s, just one degree away (so far) from the record high temperature in Rockford. That record is 85 degrees set back in 2003. Our average first 80-degree day usually occurs towards the end of April.

The warmth this weekend may have gotten you in the mood to do some outdoor work, perhaps even wanting to get out and start planting. And while the weather sure did cooperate for that, we tend to average our last Spring freeze towards the end of April. A good rule-of-thumb is to begin gardening around Mother's Day weekend. Typically, by early May the risk for a late season freeze is pretty low. So, if you're wanting to plant something that isn't a little more tough towards the cold, you'll likely be better off waiting for another few weeks.

Winds will remain light and skies clear for the rest of Sunday evening. This will allow temperatures to fall once the sun sets, down into the mid-40s. High pressure building in Monday will lead to another unseasonably warm afternoon. While temperatures won't be quite as warm (hot) as Sunday with an easterly wind and less warm air advection, the mercury will still climb to the mid and upper 70s. The forecast high for Monday is 77 degrees. 

Clouds will quickly increase Monday night as moisture moves in from the south. This moisture will remain highest to our south, south of a warm front, during the afternoon Tuesday. A few scattered showers and thunderstorms are possible early Tuesday with a better chance for storms - some strong to severe - Tuesday evening and overnight.

 

Summer-like warmth Sunday afternoon

 

If you enjoyed Saturday's weather, you're sure to love what we have coming up Sunday afternoon. A southwest breeze through much of the overnight held temperatures in the low to mid 60s, with readings still at the 7am hour in the low 60s!

A cold front just to the northwest of us Sunday morning will sweep through around Noon, shifting winds to the west and northwest. There were a few clouds around earlier in the morning but with drier air and high pressure moving in, we should continue to see plenty of sunshine for the afternoon. This will bring temperatures into the upper 70s and low 80s, with Rockford's high forecast to reach 81 degrees. If you do plan on spending any time outdoors, don't forget the sunscreen! The UV index will be moderate to high this afternoon.

On average, our first 80-degree day typically comes towards the end of April. If we reach 81 degrees today, it'll be our first 80-degree day of the year. The earliest 80-degree day occurred back on March 15th, 2012. Skies will remain mostly clear tonight with temperatures falling back into the mid-40s. Another mostly sunny day is expected Monday with temperatures warming back into the mid-70s. The warmth will come to an end, however, later in the week with a series of cold fronts moving through. This will bring temperatures back below average by the end of the week and next weekend.

Perfect weather this weekend, staying warm into next week

We made it friends! We made it through Thursday's rain and Friday's strong winds. Now we get to enjoy a multi-day stretch that features plenty of sunshine and unseasonably warm temperatures!

A ridge of high pressure making its way into the western Great Lakes this morning. This will not only result in beautifully sun-filled skies, but it will also help shift our surface winds to the southwest. The combination of the two will help temperatures quickly surge into the low 70s this afternoon. 

Sunday features a more northwesterly breeze thanks to a moisture-starved cold front sliding through during the early morning hours. 

Despite that, morning lows will be in the upper 50s which should provide a nice base for highs to peak well into the 70s. Not to mention we'll have mostly sunny skies in place from sunrise to sunset. 

Speaking of sunshine, the UV index this weekend will be at a 6 on a scale of 11. If you have any plans to be outdoors which I hope you do, it'll be important to apply some sunscreen from time to time. Yes, even though we're in mid-April, you can still get sunburn. I learned that less on Monday while waiting for the total solar eclipse to start!

More sunshine is on the table for Monday with highs peaking in the low 70s. Same for Tuesday. Tuesday however doesn't feature as much sun as this will be the day rain and storm chances creep back in.

 

 

 

If ingredients line up just right, severe weather may be possible. In their latest long range severe outlook, the Storm Prediction Center continues to keep the entire Stateline under a 15% severe risk. 

This is equivalent to a level 2 of 5 slight risk in the severe categories. As we discussed yesterday monitor the forecast over the weekend so you have a pretty good idea of what's in store for next week. After a potentially stormy Tuesday, we could see additional showers and storms pass through Wednesday. Highs will cool off plenty, landing in the 60s and then into the 50s Thursday.