Clouds stick around for Memorial Day - Mostly dry conditions continue

Cloud cover continues to increase Sunday evening as a few very light showers approach from the west.  Those showers are encountering a dry air mass thanks to high pressure centered over the Great Lakes.  High temperatures Sunday warmed into the upper 60s and low 70s, but dew points remained in the mid 30s.

The showers out west will continue to fizzle and weaken as they near the Mississippi River.  There is a little increase in moisture after sunset but likely not
enough to bring, or hold on to, any measurable rainfall to the Stateline during the overnight.  Outside of a sprinkle or very light shower, most will remain dry during the night.  Temperatures will also be much more mild than the last two frosty mornings when overnight lows dipped into the low 30s in some spots. Temperatures when you wake up Monday will start our in the low 50s.

There will likely be some breaks in the cloud cover during the morning as the disturbance out west passes to our east.  But another low moving down from the Northern Plains Monday afternoon will help bring back some of the cloud cover across northern Illinois and southern Wisconsin.  Southwest winds will also increase, gusting 20-25 mph.  Temperatures on Monday will reach the low to mid 70s.

Not much for rain is expected Memorial Day as most of the rain, and thunderstorms, remain north in Wisconsin.  In fact, there is a marginal risk for a few stronger storms in central and northern Wisconsin Monday afternoon and evening.  For us only a slight chance for a shower or two during the late afternoon and evening.  Dry skies continue once again for Monday night with overnight lows sitting in the low to mid 50s.

March-like chill continues Friday

From temperatures in the low 80s Wednesday to highs struggling to make it much above the low 60s Thursday afternoon, we've had quite the change in our weather in just a short 24 hours.  A wind-driven and chilly rain fell across the region earlier this afternoon but totals were only a couple tenths of an inch - at most. 

While a few light showers and sprinkles were present near the state line, most of the evening has been dry and cold.  Wind chills in a few spots have fallen into the 30s. 

Thunderstorms have developed over southeastern Iowa but have so far remained below severe limits.  This lines up nicely with where the warm front currently sit, as well as the surface low pressure system.  We will remain on the north end of the front keeping the rather raw and blustery conditions through the evening.

Not much change, or warm up, will occur for Friday as northeast winds increase once again

gusting upwards of 30 mph.  Clouds will hold thick throughout much of the day as low pressure pulls to our southeast.  Scattered rain showers will become a little more numerous through the early afternoon before departing and drying up towards Friday evening.  Temperatures will struggle to make it much above 50 degrees Friday!

Currently I'm forecasting a high of 51 degrees for Rockford Friday afternoon, just a handful of

degrees away from the record cold high (coldest high temperature) for May 28th.  That currently sits at 46 degrees set all the way back in 1906! I don't think we'll break that record, but it'll sure feel cold enough.  Skies will remain filled with cloud cover through the evening, clearing out early Saturday morning.  If we clear out fast enough it's possible that patchy frost could occur in some of the low lying spots by morning.  The March-like chill doesn't last, though, as temperatures are

expected to warm back into the low 70s for the weekend. 

Temperatures tumble following summer-like warmth; Heavy rain and storms return Thursday

Temperatures Wednesday warmed into the upper 70s and low 80s, officially reaching 82 degrees in Rockford. This was the fifth straight day where the high temperatures reached 80 degrees, or higher. But some big changes are on the horizon, beginning Wednesday night.

 Shifting winds around to the northeast late Wednesday will usher in a cooler air mass as high pressure builds to the north. In fact, an

unseasonably cold air mass for late May settles in across much of the Great Lakes Thursday and Friday. Overnight lows Wednesday will dip into the low 50s, only warming into the low 60s Thursday. Temperatures, however, on Thursday are going to be heavily dependent on the placement of a warm front. This warm front will be stretching from central/northern Illinois, westward to an area of low pressure that'll be sweeping through the Plains. That low is currently bringing severe weather to parts of Nebraska, Kansas, Oklahoma and Texas Wednesday evening.

Skies will remain dry and mostly clear for much of our Wednesday evening but cloud cover will increase overnight. Ongoing thunderstorms west of the Mississippi River Thursday morning should be in a weakening phase as they near northern Illinois and southern Wisconsin. Dry air initially will limit our rainfall chances during the morning, but we'll see that chance increase by late morning and early afternoon.

Temperatures cooling off into the upper 40s and low 50s Wednesday night will only reach the low 60s Thursday afternoon as a warm front stalls just to the south of the immediate area. South of the boundary temperatures are likely to climb into the 70s and 80s. It's possible, though, that the boundary could lift as far north as Whiteside, Lee and DeKalb counties placing a portion of the viewing area in the 'warm sector'. While the overall severe risk for our region is low, if the warm front does lift a little further north there could be an increased risk for a few stronger storms late in the day Thursday. Rain showers will be steady through much of the afternoon Thursday as moisture lifts up and over the relatively stable air near the surface. As the low approaches from the west it's possible that a few thunderstorms could occur during the evening. With an increase in moisture a swath of heavy rain may also fall for a portion of the area where rainfall totals could come close to an inch or more.

 

The low will be quick to pull away Friday morning but an increase in the east wind and thick deck of low clouds will hold temperatures in the 40s and 50s Friday afternoon! Winds will also be gusty from the east at around 30 mph. Lightly scattered rain showers will be possible through the afternoon.

 

Thunderstorm Risk Tuesday Followed By Cooler Temps For The Weekend

Another hot day is in store for the Stateline tomorrow as an area of high pressure refuses to move. Temperatures are expected to climb into the mid 80s once again tomorrow. Along with the heat, a chance of thunderstorms exists, especially in the afternoon as a cold front begins to push it way through the area.

Clouds will slowly build as the day progresses with scattered thunderstorms starting to move into the area by mid afternoon. Enough instability will be present to have perhaps a stronger thunderstorm or two The main threats will be isolated strong wind gusts and torrential rain with any of the stronger thunderstorms. The Storm Prediction Center has placed areas along and west of I-39 in a MARGINAL risk. Thunderstorms could develop as early as 2/3 PM with a slightly higher coverage in activity after sunset.

 

As the afternoon slowly gives way to the night, our cold front will push through and winds will shift to the northwest before temperatures slowly begin to fall for the later half of the week.

More chances for rain returns as the week progresses before a drier air mass arrives for next week.

First Warn Weather Intern Patrick Murray

Backdoor cold front brings a bit of a chill to parts of the Stateline Sunday evening

Sunday started off with a bit of cloud cover thanks to a few overnight showers that moved through parts of the Stateline. The cloudy start did limit how warm temperatures got during the afternoon, but a bit of late day clearing pushed temperatures into the upper 70s and low 80s. Much of Sunday afternoon and evening remained dry, but a few isolated showers/storms moved through northern Carroll, Jo Daviess and Stephenson counties.

High pressure well to our north in Canada is helping to push what is known as a 'backdoor cold front' down Lake Michigan and into southeast Wisconsin and northeast Illinois. It's called a 'backdoor cold front' because it is coming in from the East/Northeast, rather than the West or Northwest. The front has pushed well inland, now reaching I-39 in northern Illinois and southern Wisconsin. Temperatures behind the front have fallen quickly, with the 50s now just along the lake shore and mid 60s stretching from Belvidere to Janesville. While the front won't maintain its strength this far west, we will see temperatures fall into the low 60s and upper 50s behind the front for places from Monroe to Ridott to Rochelle, and points east. West of that line overnight lows are likely to remain in the mid 60s.

The incoming cold front may be just enough to spark off an isolated shower through this evening, as thunderstorm activity has been ongoing in southwest Wisconsin. Elevated instability does climb a little after Midnight. There will also likely be some fog that develops, especially right along the front, early Monday morning.

The chill doesn't last as southwest winds pick up mid morning, pushing the front back to the northeast as a warm front. This will allow high temperatures on Monday to climb back into the low to mid 80s. While a few isolated showers/storms may be possible during the afternoon, much of Monday is looking to remain dry and warm.  

Storm Chances Remain Hit-Or-Miss, Unseasonably Warm Stretch Continues

Summer-Like Stretch Continues:

Winds packed quite a punch on Thursday, with most of our local airports observing a wind gust between 30-35 mph. Along with these warm southerly to southwesterly winds, a little bit of sunshine made an appearance from time to time. The combination of the two allowed temperatures to soar into the low 80s for the second day in a row. Just to compare, highs this warm isn't something we typically see until early July. With that being said, it doesn't look like this summer-like stretch has any means to slow down, especially as we roll into the upcoming weekend.

Warm, Muggy Friday:

The one thing we do have going for us is that it doesn't feel as muggy to start. Temperatures for those heading out early are sitting in the low to mid 60s, with dew points falling into the upper 50s. I immediately felt the difference when I took my fur-babies out for the early-morning walk. While it may feel a bit more comfortable this morning, that won't be the case come Friday afternoon. Dew points look to climb back into the low 60s, bringing back that warm, muggy, and summer-like feel. Friday does feature plenty of dry time. However, the combination of the heat and humidity, along with marginal instability, will result in the chance for an isolated late-day thunderstorm or two. 

City Market Forecast: 

Some of these thunderstorm will have the opportunity to go severe, with the highest threat for severe weather focused to our northwest. The main hazards with any severe thunderstorm will be strong winds and heavy rainfall. Will this effect the first day of City Market? Thankfully, it shouldn't cause too much for those that plan to attend. If you are heading to City Market later today, just keep an eye on the radar. Temperatures look to remain in the 80s for much of the event, then cooling down into the upper 70s by the time things begin to wrap up. Any chance for a thunderstorm to develop looks to come to an end shortly after sunset, with mostly cloudy skies lasting into Saturday morning.

Toasty Weekend:

As we've been alluding to all week long, this unseasonably warm weather pattern looks to only get warmer over the upcoming weekend. High temperatures for most look to climb even further up the thermometer, landing in the upper 80s both Saturday and Sunday. Expect dew points to stick around the low to mid 60s, which will continue to make it feel a bit more on the humid side. So if you haven't turned on your air-conditioner, you more than likely will today or over the weekend. Rain chances will be hit or miss in the days ahead too.

Widely isolated showers Wednesday evening and Thursday

 

The majority of Wednesday morning and afternoon remained dry, and somewhat muggy, as temperatures warmed into the upper 70s. With a little heating during the day, widely isolated showers have developed across northern Illinois and southern Wisconsin. There have also even been a few rumbles of thunder with the showers. These will continue through sunset, with skies remaining mostly cloudy during the overnight. Showers are possible overnight, but most likely for areas west of Rockford - lining up along the Mississippi River. Temperatures tonight will remain in the mid 60s.

Similar to today, Thursday will feature a partly sunny to mostly cloudy sky. With little change in the air mass from day to day, highs on Thursday will warm into the upper 70s and low 80s. It'll continue to feel muggy with dew point temperatures holding steady in the mid 60s. A shower or two remains possible during the morning with some dry time leading into the afternoon. With the heating of the day, clouds will begin to build and that could lead to isolated showers and thunderstorms by late afternoon.

While the severe risk is very low for Thursday, there are parts of the region highlighted under a 'marginal risk' for a couple stronger storms Thursday afternoon and evening. The Storm Prediction Center has nearly all of Iowa, Minnesota and western Wisconsin under the risk, but also places the far northwest corner of Illinois in it as well. It does look like the greatest potential for storm coverage on Thursday will reside west of the Mississippi River, but a storm or two may work into parts of the area and could produce small hail or a strong wind gust or two.

Scattered Showers Wednesday, First 90° Day Could be in the Works

Tuesday's Rainfall:

It sure was nice to finally see some rain make it's way into northern Illinois and southern Wisconsin yesterday. Many of you I know welcomed the rain with open arms, considering how dry we've been since the beginning of meteorological spring. A look at yesterday's totals show that a few spots, including Monroe, Sterling, and Freeport, received over .5". As for today, I wouldn't necessarily put the rain gear away, as the moisture-rich atmosphere we have in place could lead to another round of scattered showers. 

Shower Chances Continue:

The biggest difference with today's rain chances is that they'll be widely scattered in nature, especially during the first half of the day. That's why it would be a good idea to keep your umbrella with you throughout the day just to be on the safe side. With that being said, today does feature more rain-free hours than Tuesday. But thanks to a plethora of  moisture and warmer afternoon temps, there is the possibility for another round of widely-scattered showers and perhaps an isolated thunderstorm or two to develop later today. The Storm Prediction Center continues to keep the entire region under a "general" thunderstorm risk, meaning severe weather is highly unlikely. By the time you're ready to head home, guidance shows mainly dry conditions sliding in with mostly cloudy skies overhead.

Turning Up the Heat:

As I tell everyone, If you don't like the current forecast, just wait 5 minutes or wait a week in this case. In classic Midwest fashion, the Stateline went from being under a Frost Advisory last Wednesday to feeling more like summer this time around. Guidance continues to show a strong dome of high pressure stalling over the eastern U.S, leaving us in the perfect spot for a summer-like air-mass to filter in. As this warm and humid air-mass spreads across the Midwest, temperatures locally will quickly jump from the upper 70s today to the low 80s tomorrow, then to the upper 80s on Friday. If I had to choose, either Saturday or Sunday could wind up being the first 90° of the year and the first 90° day since August 28th of last year. While it's been some time since you've used them, prepare to turn on those air-conditioners.

Steady light rain Tuesday puts a little dent in our rainfall deficit

The rainfall Tuesday is what we needed to help chip away at the rainfall deficit across the region. While a few locations have received only a few tenths of an inch, other locations are nearing half an inch of rainfall so far Tuesday evening. While the coverage of the rain is not quite as widespread as it was earlier in the day, steady light rain showers will continue through about Midnight with a little bit of a lull in the activity overnight. On and off rain showers and even an isolated thunderstorm or two remain likely

Wednesday. Although Wednesday will feature more dry hours than Tuesday.

As of 8pm rainfall totals range from just under a tenth of an inch in Rochelle, to just over half an inch in Sterling and Monroe. We will likely see another tenth of an inch, up to a quarter of an inch, from the additional rain showers this evening and overnight.

The steady rain we've had today is much more beneficial to easing drought conditions than a hard

and heavy rain would be. That's because when soil dries out it becomes hard and cracked. When the rain comes down heavily, it 'bounces' off the soil and isn't easily absorbed into the ground, often times causing more of a flooding concern and risk. When the rain falls at a more steady pace, over a longer duration of time, it is able to soak into the soil more efficiently. So a rain just like what we had Tuesday, and could very well end up seeing for Wednesday, will do us some good.

Showery Tuesday, Back in the 80s Starting Wednesday

Rain Chances So Far:

The best way or the best phrase if you will to describe the rain chances we've encountered so far this spring is "same story, different day". Every time it looks like northern Illinois and southern Wisconsin has a chance to see a soaking rain event, the heavier rain ends up sliding to our south. That was the case on Monday. 

Despite it looking like it was going to rain during the day, dry air filtering in from the Great Lakes suppressed our chances, with much of yesterday's rainfall remaining south of Interstate-88. Today however features a better chance for us to see some rain as an area of low-pressure moves in from the south. With that being said, I'd have the rain gear with you before stepping out the door this morning. You won't necessarily need it for the morning hours, more so for the later half of the day.

Showery Tuesday:

As this area of low-pressure continues to lift northward, our atmosphere will become completely saturated, allowing showers to become more widespread by mid-day. While it's likely that there will be brief breaks in the shower activity, it’s likely that the later half of our Tuesday features several hours of steady light rain. That's why it's going to be pretty important to have the rain gear with you throughout the day, and you may want to give yourself a few extra minutes for travel once you're ready to head home.

Temperatures because of today's cloud cover and rain chances will end up a few degrees cooler than the past two days, with most spots topping out in the upper 60s. Scattered showers, along with the potential for a few isolated thunderstorms, remain possible into Wednesday morning. Again, no severe weather is expected with any thunderstorm that tracks through. Along with this low-pressure system is a warm front that look to help usher a little taste of summer for the second half of the work week.
 

Back to the 80s:

Following Wednesday's warm front, winds will slowly turn more to our south Wednesday and Thursday, and then to the southwest by Friday. This will help push our temperatures from the upper 60s today to the low 80s Wednesday and Thursday. We typically don't see our average highs reach the low 80s until the middle of June. Wednesday does feature a chance for scattered showers and thunderstorms, especially early on in the day as that warm front slides through. Rain chances as we head into the Thursday and Friday become more isolated in nature.

Dry skies continue Monday as rain remains south

Despite it looking like it was going to rain during the day Monday, skies remained mostly dry for many across the Stateline. High pressure and dry air held firm across the region, keeping most of the rain showers focused just to the south. In fact, the dry air was enough to break apart the mostly cloudy sky leaving parts of the area under clear skies late afternoon and evening. Temperatures responded as a result, warming into the low to mid 70s. Where the cloud cover stuck around a little longer temperatures remained in the 60s. 

The dry conditions will continue through the evening and overnight with low temperatures dipping into the mid and upper 50s. The chance for rain should increase, however, Tuesday as an area of low pressure and warm front drift closer to the region. While not a drought-busting rain, a few tenths of an inch are possible, especially for areas over north-central and northwest Illinois. The chance for scattered showers and isolated thunderstorms will persist on Wednesday, with temperatures then warming by the end of the week.

Rain Chances Best Tuesday, Summer-like Pattern to Follow

Showers Remain South:

When comparing yesterday's weather to Saturday's gloomy weather, Sunday brought big improvements including a mixed amount of sunshine and highs in the low 70s. However, thanks to a storm system that approached the region from the southwest, clouds were quick to increase overnight, with rain chances slowly sliding into our southern areas. 

If you're plans pull you out the driveway early on, you'll have a better shot at encountering a few light showers if you're traveling on I-88 than on highway 20. Dry air wrapping around an area of high pressure system to our east is helping suppress the rain to our south, leaving areas along and north of highway 20 dry. Any chance for areas like Freeport, Rockford, and even Belvidere to see a few light showers will be best during the morning hours, with dry conditions settling in for the later half of the day.  

Better Rain Chances Tuesday:

Rain chances will become more widespread as we head into Tuesday as both an elevated warm front and upper level disturbance lift through the area. In other words, you'll want to have the rain gear by your side as you step out the doorway early Tuesday. This elevated warm front looks to lift through during the afternoon hours, with a little instability coming along for the ride. This may result in a few isolated thunderstorms, however severe weather is not anticipated at this time. You won't necessarily need the rain gear all that much as we approach the weekend as rain chances locally become more isolated! However, you'll notice a more summer-like feel to the air. 

Feeling Like Summer:

Once the warm front slides to our north, high temperatures look to climb from the mid-60s on Tuesday to the low 80s on Wednesday. But check this out, once our high temperatures climb into the 80s, it's going to be hard to see them trend southward over the next 7 days. As a ridge of high pressure develops, pushing the jet stream to the north, a plethora of moisture is expected to swing into the region from the south. This will help bring a more summer-like pattern to the area towards the end of the work week and the upcoming weekend. 

Along with highs in the 80s comes an uptick in humidity. Wednesday and Thursday feature dew point temperatures in the low 60s, which could make it feel a bit sticky at times during the peak-heating hours. Dew points then look to jump into the mid 60s by the weekend, which may be muggy enough for some Stateliners to turn on their air conditions units. 

A summer-like forecast that moves in just in time for the first day of City Market. If you plan on participating, you may need to check the first warn weather app from time to time as a few isolated thunderstorms are possible. However, expect skies to remain partly sunny with temperatures in the low to mid 80s, most likely dropping into the upper 70s by the tail-end of the event.

Summer-like heat returns towards the end of the week and weekend

After a bit of a chilly Saturday afternoon highs Sunday warmed quite nicely into the upper 60s and low 70s, despite the increase in cloud cover during the afternoon. Highs Monday and Tuesday may take a little dip, but we should still remain in the upper 60s - somewhat seasonable - for this time of year.

Cloud cover sticks around Monday as light rain showers move in from Iowa and Missouri. With high pressure north in Wisconsin the rain may have a hard time crossing over the Illinois/Wisconsin line, leaving the northern portions of the Stateline mostly dry. Areas to the south - Whiteside, Lee, DeKalb and southern Ogle counties may end up with a slightly better chance for rain during the overnight and into Monday.

A little more widespread rain will arrive on Tuesday as both an elevated warm front and upper level disturbance lift through. Following the warm front Tuesday afternoon, a push of warm air arrives bringing temperatures back up near 80 degrees Wednesday.

High pressure will begin to anchor itself over the Southeast working to push the jet stream north of the Great Lakes. At the same time, an area of low pressure will develop over the west. This position/pattern will place the more active part of the jet stream from the southern Plains into the Midwest; northern Illinois and southern Wisconsin will remain right on the edge. A more summer-like pattern will develop with more active weather lining up just west of the Stateline. As for temperatures we will see those numbers climb, especially if we end up mostly dry, with highs warming

through the 80s by the end of the week and then into the mid and upper 80s for the upcoming weekend. You'll also notice an uptick in humidity as well.

Rain showers return for the weekend; Temperatures warm near 80 degrees next week

Temperatures Thursday afternoon warmed to 71 degrees making it the first time since May 3rd that the high reached 70 (plus) degrees, as well as warming above average.  The warming trend will continue into the weekend and next week, although may take a little break most likely Saturday as cloud cover and scattered showers move in. 

Friday will be another seasonably warm afternoon with temperatures rising into the upper 60s and low 70s.  Skies will start off with plenty of sunshine but cloud cover will gradually increase throughout the day.  High pressure that has dominated our skies the last several days will slowly begin trekking east with its dry air mass still holding across the Stateline.  As moisture increases from the west and southwest Friday evening, a few showers are likely west of the Mississippi River in Iowa.  We may not see any rain showers until late overnight Friday, or early Saturday morning.  The weekend isn't going to be a washout and we'll likely end up with more dry hours than west ones.  Widely scattered showers will be possible Saturday with temperatures holding in the mid 60s.

Sunday morning and afternoon will feature more dry time as well, although we could see a slight uptick in the chance for rain late Sunday evening and overnight.  A warm frontal boundary will lift closer to the Stateline Sunday evening, but likely fall short of actually reaching the region.  This means the highest chance for rain overnight Sunday into Monday will most likely bypass the majority of the Stateline.

High pressure building north across the Great Lakes and Upper Midwest will continue to work to block most of the moisture from reaching northern Illinois and southern Wisconsin early next week.  With a drier forecast in store it's likely temperatures will warm into the mid and upper 70s for Monday and Tuesday.  By Wednesday the high will shift east allowing a little more moisture and opportunity for rain, as well as a thunderstorm or two, to move into the Stateline.  Temperatures still look to remain close to 80 degrees by the end of the week.