Scattered showers Thursday bring late October chill

 

Gusty Northwest winds followed a cold front Wednesday afternoon that brought a few widely scattered showers throughout the day. Despite the cold front passing, temperatures still managed to warm into the low to mid 60s. While skies are clearing out a bit Wednesday evening, cloud cover further upstream is expected to move in during the overnight as another upper level disturbance and cold front move in from the north and northwest.

Cold air filtering in behind the cold front Thursday will leave highs in the mid and upper 50s during the afternoon. But an even colder air mass will settle in from the north in the mid and upper levels of the atmosphere. This means temperatures at just 5,000ft will fall at or below freezing (32 degrees), with below freezing temperatures found further up. The quick change in the temperature from the surface to the middle part of the atmosphere will lead to quickly rising air. This quick upward motion of the air combined with the sun will lead to a slight increase in instability during the afternoon.

Scattered showers will likely develop after Noon, lasting into the evening. Rainfall amounts won't be much but a brief, heavy downpours will be possible for some. Along with the heavier downpours, an isolated rumble of thunder or two can't be ruled out. Most of the shower activity should be ending Thursday evening as high pressure moves in from the North Thursday night and early Friday morning. If clouds clear out enough, areas of frost will be possible for the Stateline Friday morning as temperatures fall into the mid 30s. 

Parade of Cold Fronts Bring Very Chilly Start To October

It was a somewhat busy start to our Wednesday, as a round of light showers tracked to the west of the Rockford area. Although the air towards the surface may have been too dry to see any of that rain, a few raindrops may have splattered on your windshield if you were traveling westbound. However, much of the morning has been dry under a mostly cloudy sky. With this round of light showers now shifting to our southwest, we're beginning to see a little bit of clearing across the Stateline. Don't let this clearing fool you. Clouds will be quick to increase ahead of incoming cold front. Along with this boundary will be another chance for a few passing showers and gusty winds. Tis the season am I right?

Model guidance continued to show this cold front swinging by towards the mid-day hours. Although this will have enough lift to pop-up a few light showers, the bigger and more impactful story will be the strong winds. Northwest winds along behind the front are expect to increase to 15 to 20 mph sustained, with gusts up to 30-35 mph. I wouldn't too surprised to see a few isolated spots experience gusts up to 40 mph. With that being said, if you have any fall decoration set outside or any loose objects, you're going to want to make sure they are secure. For those that have any traveling plans this afternoon, be sure to have a firm grip on the steering wheel, as these winds could make for bumpy travel. We'll experience the brunt of these shortly after mid-day, stretching until 5PM-6PM. A light breeze will stick around throughout the evening. 

Following today's cold front, a secondary cold front is set to arrive during the evening tomorrow. Now you may have heard me say the term "backdoor cold front" multiple times during the shows this morning. That is the type of front we're expecting to slide through the region late in the day tomorrow. The reason why we call it a backdoor cold front is because of the direction it moves. A regular cold front typically comes in from the northwest, while a backdoor cold front slides from north to south. Behind this secondary front will be some very chilly Canadian air.

Models continue to show the Stateline experiencing the coldest of this wave moving in on Friday. Highs are expected to only climb into the low 50s, which is about 15 to 20 degrees below average. Overnight lows both Friday morning and Saturday morning will drop into the 30s, bringing the potential for frost. Observing both mornings, I think that we have a better chance to see frost Friday morning, as we may be dealing with a little more cloud cover waking up on Saturday. But, there's good news for those that aren't ready for the chill to stay. Long range outlooks continue to favor above average temperatures as we roll into the middle of October. Highs next week are expected to remain a few degrees below average to start. But hey, we'll take what we get right? By Tuesday, we're talking highs around the 70 degree mark.

 

Scattered showers continue Wednesday and Thursday

A few sprinkles and light showers have been moving through northern Illinois and southern Wisconsin Tuesday evening, but should quickly be moving out by 7pm. Skies will remain mostly cloudy, briefly turning partly cloudy overnight This will allow temperatures area wide to dip into the low to mid 40s. Breezy west winds will continue through Wednesday ahead of a cold front forecast to move through mid-day. Ahead of the front temperatures will warm into the low 60s, but then will quickly fall Wednesday night.

As a series of low pressure systems move in from the northwest within a big dip, or trough, in the jet stream, scattered showers will be possible the next few days. The next chance for rain arrives early Wednesday morning with the first disturbance moving down from Wisconsin. As the cold front comes through mid-afternoon, scattered showers will remain possible during the afternoon and evening. Skies will dry Wednesday night with rain showers returning for Thursday. Highs on Thursday are expected to only warm into the mid 50s. Areas of frost will be likely Friday morning, and then again

Saturday morning as lows flirt with the low to mid 30s.  

Shower Chances Continue into Midweek, Cooling Down Into October

 

BRRRRRRR! That's all I have to say about this morning. After skies across the region cleared up overnight, temperatures fell into the low 40s in most spots, with a few isolated areas starting their day in the upper 30s. So here's a question for you. Would you call this flannel weather? Sweater weather? Or both? Well, whatever you call it, you're gonna want to grab something warm before stepping out the door this morning. Thankfully, conditions remain dry along with the chilly start. With that being said, our next disturbance will be quick to end the region this afternoon. Not only bringing increasing clouds, but our next chance for showers.

As of this morning, our next disturbance is currently tracking through the Upper Midwest, bringing scattered activity to much of Minnesota. As this disturbance continues to swing around an upper-level low in the northern Great Lakes, it should make it's way in by early this afternoon. Ahead of this system, skies will turn mostly cloudy by mid-day, with shower chances soon to follow. Hi-res models this morning had the best time for showers between 3PM-7PM. Showers that develop later on will be similar to the activity we saw yesterday. These will be scattered in nature, quick to move through, and could produce light to moderate rainfall rates. Rainfall accumulations should remain under a tenth of an inch, with any chances coming to a close after sunset. 

Shower chances do continue into the middle of the work week, as yet another cold front slides into the Stateline. Behind this cold front, a much colder air mass is still expected to spill across The Great Lakes just in time for when we hop in October. If you remember, last year we were rolling into October with highs in the 80s. Unfortunately, that isn't the case this time around. Temperatures following Wednesday's cold front will fall into the 50s for the first few days of the month. Using the calculator in my head, this is about 10° to 15° below average. What a difference a year makes huh? However, this upcoming chill doesn't seem to stick around very long.

Long term outlooks continue to favor a warming trend in temperatures as we roll into the middle of October. More specifically, the next 8-14 days. So there is light at the end of the tunnel. We just have to get through this very fall-like stretch. While not hot by any means, conditions here are likely to be warmer than normal, with our current forecast calling for highs in the 60s by the start of next week. Much of the lower 48 in fact is expected to see above average temps, with the highest percentage out towards our west.

Scattered showers continue through Monday evening

Scattered showers will continue through sunset Monday evening as a deep area of low pressure continues to rotate through the Midwest, Great Lakes and Northeast. Most of the showers have been brief, but heavy as they moved through northern Illinois and southern Wisconsin.  

While the shower activity may become a little less in coverage after sunset, another low pressure system currently moving out of Minnesota and into Iowa will rotate through eastern Iowa and western Illinois after Midnight. Breaks in the cloud cover will continue to grow but could fill back in as the second low nears later tonight. This could also bring with it a slight chance for an isolated shower or two for parts of northwest Illinois.

Where skies do clear a little overnight areas of patchy fog will be possible. Temperatures are expected to dip into the low 40s, but a few upper 30s will be possible in some of the outlying areas. We will see some sunshine early Tuesday but cloud cover is expected to build back in with widely scattered showers developing during the afternoon and evening.

Fall Returns From Extended Vacation, Frost Potential Towards Weeks End

 

Did you feel the chill out there? I know I did walking my fur-babies this morning. Fall is back from it's extended vacation. That's right! Yesterday's strong cold front put our temperatures on the chopping block, as all locations woke up to temperatures being 15°-20° cooler. 

For kids heading to school this morning, or if you are heading into work, you'll definitely need a light jacket before stepping out the doorway. This cooler start is a sign for things to come for the upcoming work week, as temperatures remain unseasonably cool into the beginning of October. 

After moderate pockets of rain pushed through overnight, the Stateline remains quiet under a mostly cloudy sky. Conditions for the rest of the morning should remain dry, with the exception of an isolated shower or two. With that being said, it wouldn't be a bad idea to have the umbrella on hand today. The reason I say that is because after a secondary cold front comes in this afternoon, a few scattered showers are possible. 

The time frame to keep an eye on the radar will be shortly after mid-day, to about 4-5PM. These showers will be scattered in nature, and will amount to light accumulations. Thanks to expansive cloud cover, and a chilly northwesterly breeze, highs today will be limited to the low 60s. Some spots may only make it into the upper 50s. But dress accordingly, and have an umbrella on hand just in case for this afternoon's shower chances. 

This week is going to be a fall fronts parade, as a stronger cold front is expected to pass through by Wednesday morning. Behind this cold front, a colder air mass will down  It may take a while for the cooler air aloft to spill into our atmosphere. By Thursday, highs will tumble down into the upper 50s, with the coldest of the air being felt on Friday. 

Highs on Friday look to only climb into the low 50s, which is about 15° to 20° below average. Talk about unseasonably cold. Low temperatures both Thursday night and Friday night look to drop into the mid to upper 30s. What does that tell you? Things will be getting a bit frosty once we head towards weeks end. The best potential for frost will be Friday night into Saturday morning, so make sure that your plants are properly taken care of before hand.

Chilly Sunday evening rain

 

A chilly rain continues to fall Sunday evening following a cold front that passed through earlier in the day. Light, to at times moderate, rain will continue through much of the evening. There may even be a slight uptick in the intensity of the rain a little before Midnight. Even though the cold front has passed a trough of low pressure in the mid and upper levels of the atmosphere has allowed the band of rain to develop. The trough of low pressure will pass through most of northern Illinois and southern Wisconsin by Monday morning.

The majority of the rainfall should be passing east of I-39 between 1am and 2am, but a few lingering showers will still be around through sunrise Monday. Temperatures warmed into the low 70s for some Sunday afternoon, but were quick to cool into the 50s once the rain arrived. Overnight lows won't dip too far beyond 50 degrees Monday morning, only rising to around 60 degrees Monday afternoon.

Scattered showers will continue again during the afternoon Monday but are not expected to be as steady as Sunday's rain. Rain chances decreases by Monday evening with skies turning partly to mostly cloudy during the overnight. Temperatures will dip into the low 40s for the start of Tuesday.

Big Cooldown to Follow Warm Stretch

After spending nearly a week on the warmer side of normal, a long stretch of cool weather is in store for the Stateline to end this month and kick off the next.

Between September 21^st and 26^th, high temperatures in Rockford exceeded the daily average with one of those days, the 25^th, hitting 80 degrees. However, as of Saturday evening, a potent cold front sits to the northwest of the Stateline with plans to move over the area on Sunday and initiate an unseasonably cool stretch of weather. This cold front is forecast to enter the northwestern Stateline in the early afternoon and last through the mid-evening. Its arrival time will likely mean an earlier than normal high temperature for Sunday which is forecast to be in the lower 70’s. This front will also bring with it a line of showers which is relieving news considering Saturday marks the 14^th consecutive day with no rainfall whatsoever in Rockford, something that the city hasn’t seen since September of 2017.

As winds shift to northwesterly following the passing of Sunday’s cold front, cold air continues to be fed into the Stateline and temperatures are forecast to only reach the lower 60’s on Monday. Another major contributor to the cooldown is a change in pattern for the jet stream. A large trough will form to the south of the Stateline which will pull some frigidly cold air into the Stateline from the north. The jet stream will also be moving rather fast through the week and the faster the jet stream is, the greater the influence it has on our weather, including temperatures.

Temperatures should level out from Monday through Wednesday staying in the lower 60’s. However, another cold front is expected to move through early Wednesday which should keep temperatures down in the middle 50’s for a high on Thursday. Highs in the 50’s are forecast to stick around through Saturday. Thursday and Friday night are expected to see low temperatures in the 30’s, something Rockford has not seen since this past April.

As of Saturday, there are no more 80’s in the foreseeable future. On average, the last 80° day of the season in Rockford is October 7^th though it’s come as early as September 10^th. The past five years haven’t given up on the 80’s until at least October 1^st. However, if this past Friday proves to be the last 80° day of the season, it will be the earliest since 2009 when it fell on September 18^th.