Late week storm is one to watch

 

Light showers are beginning to move into northern Illinois and are expected to last for the next few hours. Isolated thunderstorms are also possible, but no severe weather is expected. Temperatures will remain above freezing for most of the night, but it's not out the question that a few snow pellets or flurries may occur near, and north, of the state line. Skies will begin mostly cloudy Wednesday with a little more sunshine expected for the afternoon. Highs on Wednesday will warm into the low 50s.

Both Wednesday and Thursday remain quiet, weather wise, but temperatures will drop about ten degrees Thursday afternoon. This is following a cold front that will move through Wednesday night.

Another significant storm system will take shape out west, quickly moving to the east Wednesday and Thursday. Ahead of it, severe thunderstorms will occur over the South and lower Mississippi River Valley. By Friday, the low will be moving into southern and central Illinois. Temperatures will warm ahead of the low Thursday night but are forecast to drop as the low moves through during the day Friday.

Rain showers are possible during that time, with a wintry mix occurring into Friday morning. Depending on the overall track of the low, whether or not it moves more south or north, will determine how much, if any, snow we could accumulate through Friday night. 

As temperatures begin to cool thanks to strong forcing aloft, mixed precipitation may quickly transition over to a heavy, wet snow. Northeast windswill increase during that time, holding temperatures in the 30s during the afternoon.     

Light Rain Tuesday Night, Mainly Quiet for Wednesday & Thursday

Flooding Alerts:

Monday's historic rainfall has placed this February in top 5 territory for wettest on record. The only year in which Rockford saw more February rainfall was back in 2019 (4.03").

As a reminder, a FLOOD WARNING has been issued for the portion of the Sugar River that extends from Brodhead, Wisconsin into northwest Winnebago County. In addition to that, a FLOOD WATCH is now in place for the Rock River in Latham Park and Rockton, as well as the Pecatonica River in Shirland as river levels are expected to rise over the next few days thanks to the rain that fell Monday. Those who live along these highlighted areas should pay extra attention to forecasts this week.

Next Rain Chance:

If temperatures do manage to get cool enough this morning, the potential for a few slick spots will be present during the commute. Guidance does show the cloud cover from Monday night retreating prior to sunrise. This will result in some sunshine, which should be enough for temperatures to climb into the upper 40s this afternoon. 

Clouds are to thicken up late in the afternoon into the evening as our next system approaches from the plains. With this disturbance comes a wave of rain that looks to stick around into the early portions of Wednesday. Those along and north of the Illinois/Wisconsin border will be cool enough for precipitation to fall as a mix or all snow. Overall, the chances that arrive tonight shouldn't bring any concern for those planning to travel Wednesday morning. 

Once this disturbance ejects eastward, our forecast turns a bit more tranquil ahead of a much stronger system that aims to bring impacts by week's end.

Record rainfall Monday

 

Rainfall totals from Monday morning added up between half an inch, to over an inch and a half. Rockford received 1.54", breaking the previous daily rainfall record of 1.3" set back in 1948. Most of the accumulating rainfall wrapped up late morning, but there was some drizzle and light rain that lingered into the afternoon.

February's monthly precipitation total now sits at 3.77 inches making it the second wettest February on record. This follows February 2019 which had a monthly precipitation total of 4.03 inches.

Low pressure is currently passing to the east of northern Illinois, causing northwest winds to increase. Wind gusts 30-35 mph will be common for a few hours Monday evening before easing overnight. Temperatures will continue to drop through the 30s, dropping down to around 30 degrees for the start of Tuesday.

The combination of the recent snowmelt and heavy rain has caused many of our local rivers, creeks and

streams to rise since the weekend. As a result, a FLOOD WATCH has been issued for a portion of the Rock River in Winnebago County, the Sugar River extending from Brodhead into northwest Winnebago County, and the Pecatonica River from Pecatonica to Shirland. River levels are forecast to reach either 'action' or 'minor' flood stage in the next couple of days, flooding some of the low-lying areas along the river. Those who live along the rivers should pay extra attention to forecasts this week. 

Ice Storm Warnings Cancelled, Windy Thursday Ahead

Alerts Cancelled:

Overnight, the National Weather Service cancelled the Ice Storm Warning. However, a Winter Weather Advisory remains in place for Green, Rock, and Walworth Counties up in S. Wisconsin as well as with Carroll, Stephenson, and Jo-Daviess Counties in N. Illinois until 9AM. 

This is mainly for the slippery conditions that linger into this morning's commute. Travel with extra caution. Dense fog will also be a concern for those traveling this morning. As of 6AM, only Dekalb county has been placed under a Dense Fog Advisory. That's just another reason why taking it slow will be important!

Power Outage Safety:

Of the two biggest concerns with Wednesday's ice storm, the combination of the ice and gusty winds led to many losing their power.

If you are someone who is still without power this morning, just make sure to be careful with heat sources such as candles and space heaters, practice portable generator safety, and check on your neighbors to see if they are in good shape. While the freezing rain and ice portion of this powerful storm system is set to conclude early on, the Stateline will still have quite the wind to deal with.

Gusty Winds Remain:

Any chance for a scattered light mix comes to an end before sunrise, leaving us under a blanket of cloud cover. As we approach the mid-day hours, winds will begin to ramp back up, gusting between 30-40 mph at times during the afternoon. 

This of course may renew some additional concern for tree damage and power outages. Winds today will be blowing out of the west, helping transport out next shot of cold air. This will be the reason why temperatures will be slowly dropping as the day progresses.

Cold Friday:

While much of the night tonight will be spent under a partly to mostly cloudy sky, the cold air coming in with drop overnight lows into the lower teens by Friday morning. 

Although not as strong as the winds that will be felt today, there will still be a light wind present for those heading out the door. Wind chills as of a result will end up in the single-digit. Bundle up before you head out! The cold start to our Friday will pave the way for a colder afternoon. Highs aim to peak in the mid to upper 20s, with clouds increasing ahead of our next light snow chance. 

Ice Storm Warning For Extreme Northern Illinois, Icy Roads Possible

Warning Update:

While you were sleeping, the National Weather Service added Winnebago, Boone, and McHenry Counties to the Ice Storm Warning. 

This portion of the warning will run from 6AM this morning to 6AM Thursday morning. Along with that, they have also added Whiteside and Lee Counties to the Winter Weather Advisory. 

Ice Storm Timing:

Travel impacts early on in the day will be minimal as freezing rain/sleet will be passing through the region in a light and scattered fashion. 

With that being said, I would still plan on giving yourself extra travel time just in case a few icy spots form. From about mid-morning on, expect the wintry mix to pick up in intensity and to become more widespread, remaining that way for the latter half of the day.

It's during this time in which forecast models do show an elongated period of time in which freezing rain could be the primary precipitation. It's also during this time in which we'll have to monitor the amount of regular rain that falls. 

I say that because that may limit the potential for roads to become slick and icy ahead of the evening commute. But if we do wind up with more freezing rain, accumulations for extreme northern Illinois and southern Wisconsin will likely end up in the .10" to .50" range. Significant ice accumulations such as this will be enough to ice over most roads and cause a few power outages. Because of this, it will be best to avoid being on the roads during this time. If you MUST be out on the roads, have a kit ready. Less significant ice accumulations, between a trace to a tenth of an inch, will be possible in areas closer to I-88. 

One that includes an extra flashlight, food, and water just in case you are stranded for a bit. Same goes for if you are one that loses power. When it comes to this type of extreme weather, it's always good to have a kit ready. As we move forward into Wednesday night, precipitation will likely become lighter and more scattered, remaining that way into the early portions of Thursday. 

This is why we could see impacts from this winter storm linger into tomorrow's morning's commute. Similar to this morning, allow for extra travel time. On the backside of today's storm system, winds become quite strong for Thursday. Gusts up to 40 mph will be possible, which may result in further tree and power line damage. Cold air rushing in with tomorrow's rather strong westerly winds will cool temperatures for Friday, leaving highs in the low 20s. 

Like the cool-down we experienced last week, this week's will also be a brief one. Southwest winds aim to return by Saturday morning, allowing temperatures to climb back towards the 40 degree mark. 

Significant icing possible Wednesday

UPDATE: WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY extended for Winnebago, Boone, McHenry, Ogle and DeKalb counties beginning 6am Wednesday. This is for accumulations of sleet and freezing rain. Ice accumulations up to 0.3 inches possible. Sleet accumulations up to half an inch are possible.

UPDATE: Stephenson and Jo Daviess counties now under an ICE STORM WARNING. This begins at 9am Wednesday and will last through Thursday evening.  

An ICE STORM WARNING has been issued for Green, Rock and Walworth counties in southern Wisconsin beginning 9am Wednesday, lasting through Noon Thursday.

A significant icing event is beginning to unfold across parts of the Stateline, placing southern Wisconsin and far northern Illinois in the crosshairs of heavy ice accumulations. In the warned areas, ice accumulations of a quarter of an inch to half an inch are possible. This would also be combined with winds gusting to as high as 40 mph during the afternoon. Power outages and tree damage are likely due to the ice. Travel could become nearly impossible, with impacts to both the morning and afternoon commutes. Travel during this time is strongly discouraged.

We will continue to update should any additional weather headlines be issued this afternoon for northern Illinois.

Winter Storm Watch Issued, Mix Likely Wednesday Afternoon

Winter Storm Watch Issued:

While you were fast asleep, the National Weather Service expanded the Winter Storm Watch eastward to include Green, Rock, and Walworth Counties up in S. Wisconsin. 

This watch will begin Wednesday afternoon, lasting into Thursday afternoon. Only time will tell if Chicago or Quad Cities will put a watch out for extreme N. Illinois Counties. 

Fairly Tranquil Tuesday:

Ahead of the mess that lies ahead for midweek, the tranquil conditions we saw Monday carries on into our Tuesday. The difference-maker however would be the frontal passage that occurred last night. 

That will result in not only a cooler morning, but also a cooler afternoon with highs in the low 30s. We do manage to squeeze in a good amount of sunshine early on before cloud cover gathers up throughout the afternoon.

Midweek Storm System:

Forecast models continue to showcase a swath of snow happening across portions of Minnesota and Wisconsin this evening. While much of the activity aims to remain north of the IL/WI border, a few may track into northern Illinois.As we've been hinting at, the highest impacts will be felt during the latter half of Wednesday. 

This means that you'll more than likely get to your destination Wednesday morning without any issues. As a powerful low pressure system lifts northeastward, rich-moisture will stream out ahead of it, resulting in widespread rain by mid-day. Rain could fall heavy at times and it's not out of the question that we may hear a few rumbles of thunder. It's after mid-day that we'll need to closely monitor our temperatures as a strengthening northeasterly wind will send them closer to the 32° mark.

Once we get cold enough, this will increase the likelihood mixed precipitation. At this point in time, freezing rain, sleet, and snow will all be on the table. Like the last winter storm to impact northern Illinois and southern Wisconsin, road temperatures will be warm enough to counter any ice accumulations that occur at first. Though that definitely can't be said for the evening commute as slick conditions will be more than likely. 

Forecast models from there decrease the intensity of the mixed precipitation going into the Wednesday night time frame, with most if not all of it coming to a close during the early stages of Thursday morning. To clarify, it doesn't take much ice for impacts to be felt. 

Windshields become coated, bridges become slick, and a small amount of ice accumulates on trees when .10" to .25" of ice is observed. Past that, you're looking at bigger problems such as icy roads and isolated power outages. Thursday dries out quickly. However, a strong wind will be present on the backside. Winds out of the west will be able to gust up to 40 mph at times, resulting in what will be another cold end to the work week. Expect highs in the low 20s Friday.

Gusty winds return Monday night

 

Sunny skies and a warm breeze brought high temperatures Monday afternoon back into the middle and upper 40s. Winds remain from the southwest Monday evening but will turn to the northwest later tonight following a cold front.

The cold front is tied to a fast-moving clipper system passing through Wisconsin. This brought light snow to central and northern Wisconsin during the afternoon. As the front passes Monday night, winds are expected to increase from the northwest. Gusts 30-35 mph will be possible overnight, easing to around 30 mph by daybreak Tuesday. The winds will remain gusty throughout the morning but should subside by the afternoon.

We will see sunshine for the first half of the day Tuesday with increasing cloud cover by the afternoon. This will keep temperatures in the low mid 30s, quite a bit cooler than the last several days.   

Tranquil Monday Ahead, Next Impactful Winter Storm to Follow

Quiet Monday:

With sun-filled skies and mild temperatures in place over the weekend, most, if not all of the snow from late last week has melted away. Further melting is set to take place today as more of the same is expected to start the work week.

A good portion of the day will be spent under a mix of clouds and sunshine. That, along with today's south to southwesterly wind will help temperatures get back into the low. Like Saturday and Sunday, today's forecast high of 44° will land between 5° to 15° above-average. Following a quiet PM commute, clouds will increase as our next cold front swings in from the west. In a similar fashion to last night's front, this one will pass through without a trace of precipitation. However, winds will increase, gusting between 30-35 mph at times into early Tuesday. 

Midweek Mess:

With gradual clearing taking place prior to sunrise, tomorrow will begin on a sun-filled note. By the afternoon, we'll trade the sunshine for cloud cover as our next storm system approaches. It won't be until Tuesday evening in which we in the Stateline will see precipitation with this event begin, falling in the form of light snow. A majority of it however will fall to our north across Wisconsin. 

As the low ejects into the central plains, a surplus of rich-moisture will spread across the midsection of the U.S. A few scattered showers will be possible early on in the day. However, the brunt or more intense rainfall rates is scheduled to move in during the latter half of Wednesday. 

Rain at times could be heavy. As sunset inches closer, we'll have to keep a close eye on our regional temperatures. It's during this time in which forecast models place most of our local airports close to or even below the freezing mark of 32°. As a result, all wintry precipitation types including freezing rain, sleet, and snow will be possible Wednesday evening. This of course will create quite the mess and quite the headache for anybody out on the roads.

Now, there is still wiggle room for the track of this storm system to change. A subtle shift northward in the storm track would bring slightly warmer temperatures our way, allowing precipitation to primarily fall as rain. 

However, a subtle shift southward in the track will increase our chances for more snow rather than rain. It’s certainly something we should monitor over the next 24-36 hours. While mixed precipitation may linger into the early stages of Thursday, strong westerly winds will make their presence known. Gusts throughout the day could registered on either side of the 40 mph mark. The combination of the potential ice and strong winds may lead to tree damage and isolated power outage. Something else to keep an eye on. By the weekend, our weather pattern turns more quiet with highs climbing back above-average.

Midweek storm brings threat for rain, freezing rain, snow and sleet to the Stateline

 

The several inches of snowfall from late last week continues to melt away as temperatures both Saturday and Sunday warmed into the 40s, reaching the upper 40s Sunday afternoon! Skies will remain quiet and dry through the night Sunday as cloud cover increases. As the cloud cover clears out early Monday, we should see temperatures drop back into the middle 20s. If the clouds hang on a little longer then overnight lows are likely to remain in the 30s.

Monday will be dry but feature a little more cloud cover during the afternoon. As the winds turn back around to the south, temperatures will climb back into the low to mid 40s. Tuesday will start off quiet, but it will not end that way. A large storm system will impact much of the Midwest and Great Lakes midweek, bringing snow, sleet, freezing rain and rainfall to many. Thunderstorms are even possible, but further downstate.

Highs on Tuesday won't be quite as warm, reaching only the middle 30s following the passage of a cold front Monday evening. As that boundary sinks south of the Stateline, it'll be pulled slightly back to the north with an incoming low-pressure system from the southwest. Unfortunately, it looks like the front may get hung up right near the state line, leaving temperatures north of the boundary in Wisconsin cold enough to support all snow - and heavy snow at that - with more mixed precipitation falling across southern Wisconsin and northern Illinois. With temperatures hovering very close to freezing throughout the day Wednesday, and warmer air moving in above the surface, it sets the stage for a period of freezing rain (and possibly sleet) to occur during the afternoon and evening, with the risk for accumulating freezing rain.

The finer details of the storm system need to be worked out, and this could change as we get closer to the Tuesday/Wednesday time frame. While freezing rain is definitely a possibility, and concern, the amount of warm air coming in aloft could fall at a heavy enough rate to lessen the risk for freezing rain. If that were to occur, the majority of the precipitation would fall as mostly rain, especially later in the day.

Either way, another impactful storm system is set to move in by the middle of the week. Winds both on Wednesday and Thursday are going to remain gusty, first from the northeast Wednesday and then west/northwest Thursday. If we do get any accumulating freezing rain, the potential for power outages will exist. Please continue to monitor the forecast as we continue to make adjustments over the next couple of days.  

Cold Friday Ahead, Warming Back Up This Weekend

Recapping Thursday's Snow:

The last of Thursday's snow pushed through during the evening, leaving behind a swath of 3"-6" for most. Freeport came in with the highest snowfall report, registering a whopping 8.5". Rockford on the other hand fell on the lower end of the measuring stick, observing a total of 3.6". 

Even with the snow now behind us, travel with extra caution if you plan to be on the roads during the morning commute hours. Overnight, skies gradually cleared as yesterday's snow-maker pulled away. That, along with the fresh snow has allowed temperatures to fall into the mid to upper teens prior to sunrise. That will definitely be cold enough to freeze any moisture left behind on the roadways, resulting in some icy spots. Also keep in mind that there will be roads, mainly back roads, that haven't been treated or plowed yet. 

Cold Friday:

Speaking of yesterday's snow, it will also play a major role into the cold Friday that lies ahead. With high pressure in place, expect sun-filled skies from start to finish. However, the snow's high albedo (rate of reflection) will send most of the sun's rays quickly back into space, limiting today's warm-up. All in all, most are set to peak in the low 20s this afternoon. At the same time, wind chill value will be in the teens. So bundle up friends!

Warmer Weekend:

Rapid warming takes place overnight into Saturday morning as winds turn back to the southwest. That will help get rid of the very cold air-mass in place for today, bringing high temperatures back into the upper 30s by Saturday afternoon. 

A weak disturbance sliding to our south may bring the slim chance for a flurry or shower into the early portion of Sunday. Once that disturbance slides to our east, the rest of the day remains dry under a partly cloudy sky. The warm-up we see take place for Saturday carries on into Sunday afternoon, with most peaking in the low 40s. Highs remain above-average to kick off next week. We won't be seeing a chance for wintry precipitation again until the late Tuesday-early Wednesday time frame.

Heavy snow moving back in Thursday evening

 9pm: UPDATE: Winter Storm Warnings have expired for the following counties: Stephenson, Carroll, Whiteside, Jo Daviess, Rock and Green.

Drier air moving into north-central Illinois late Thursday afternoon created an environment for freezing drizzle to develop, most of which stayed south of Rockford. But we are now beginning to see a heavier band of snow moving in from the west, expected to impact the region throughout the evening.

Visibility has fallen under this snow band to a mile or less in some locations. Temperatures earlier in the day were closer to 30 degrees, if not just above, with the first round of snow that moved in. As a result, the snow was very heavy and wet creating quite a bit of slush on some of the area roads.

Temperatures now have now fallen into the middle and upper 20s. This will result in any snow that either melted, or was removed, to quickly pile back up on the roads. The snow will also be a little lighter than the snow from the morning, causing it to continue to blow and drift - especially in open areas. 

An additional 1-3 inches of snow remains possible with this last band moving through, adding on to the already 2-6 inches of snow we've received from

today. Gusty north winds, up to 30 mph, continue through the evening with gusts decreasing to 20-25 mph overnight. Blowing and drifting snow will remain a concern, even after the snow has come to end, through the overnight. Continue to use caution if you're out this evening and be mindful that slick conditions will last through Friday morning.    

Winter Storm Warning In Effect, Difficult Travel Likely

Timing Out the Snow:

Earlier this morning, all of our counties except for Lee and Dekalb Counties were placed under a Winter Storm Warning. The two counties that are not listed under the warning have been placed under a Winter Weather Advisory, all of which remain in effect until 9PM this evening. A glimpse at this morning's surface analysis shows that our storm system is spiraling over eastern Oklahoma and western Arkansas. 

As this low drifts northeastward, it's going to tug the activity that has been occurring over the central plains out way, resulting in heavy snowfall rates. Scattered mix and snow will be present during the morning commute hours. 

If you plan to be out on the roads this morning, be sure to use extra caution and take it slow. While road temperatures at the start of the event will be too warm for accumulations to occur, slippery travel will still be likely.

Post-sunrise, snow is expected to become a lot more widespread, falling without interruption into the late-afternoon and early evening hours. This is the time window in which we will not only see a most of our snow pile up, but it's also the time in which traveling will become rather difficult. 

Along with the more intense snowfall rates, winds are also expected to ramp up. Throughout the afternoon and evening, northeast winds will be capable of gusting between 25 to 35 mph. This will pose a heightened threat for blowing and drifting snow, especially considering with the nature of today's snowfall being a much drier, more fluffy snow. From there, forecast models do show the steady and more widespread snow breaking apart rather quickly, leaving dry over night.

How Much?:

In terms of accumulations, it all depends on where the frontogenesis band sets up. Forecast models has been consistent, placing that band right over the Illinois and Wisconsin border, hence the placement of the highest snowfall totals. 

When it is all said and done, areas north of Sterling and Rochelle could pick up 3"-6". For those who live along Interstate 88, 2"-5". Then closer to the Chicago metro, a simple 1"-3". As today's snow-maker pulls away, skies will slowly turn partly cloudy into Friday morning. However, the focus then turns to the bitterly cold air that filters in, leaving temperatures Friday in the low 20s. Fortunately, high pressure moves in, allowing for sun-filled skies from start to finish. Improvements in the temperature department arrive over the weekend, lifting highs into the 40s by Sunday.

Winter Alerts Issued for Northern Illinois, Snow Likely Thursday

Winter Alerts Issued:

Along with the Wind Advisory, the National Weather Service has been quite busy this morning placing our counties under different wind alerts...

As of 6AM, Jo-Daviess and Stephenson County have been upgraded to a Winter Storm Warning. This will run from Midnight tonight to 6PM Thursday. 

Green, Rock, and Walworth Counties up in southern Wisconsin, as well as Winnabago, Boone, Mchenry, and Ogle Counties in northern Illinois under a Winter Storm Watch. Currently, that will be in effect from late tonight through Thursday afternoon. 

Lastly, our counties to the south, so Carroll, Whiteside, Lee, and Dekalb Counties, have been put under a Winter Weather Advisory. Currently, that advisory is expected to run from 3AM to 9PM Thursday. It goes without saying that there will be changes in these alerts over the next 18 hours. 

But regardless of who is put under what alert, tomorrow's snow and wind will cause quite the headache on the roads, no matter where your travels take you. 

Timing Out The Snow:

Currently, our next impactful system is making it's way across the Rockies and into the southern plains. Out ahead of it, forecast models keep much of the night dry under a mostly cloudy sky. 

As we inch closer to sunrise Thursday morning, Snow will likely overspread the area. While it will take a bit for roads to be impacted by the snow due to the extremely mild temperatures as of late, I would still travel with caution.

Once snow begins, it's likely to fall without any interruption well into the afternoon, before tapering off to a few light snow showers flurries sometime during the evening. With snow being likely for a good portion of the day, it cannot be ruled out that impacts will linger into the evening commute. Although not as strong as the winds we're encountering this morning, gusty winds will result in blowing and drifting snow. 

Snowfall Potential:

In terms of accumulations, forecast models have been somewhat consistent with where the highest totals will occur. Before we jump into the details, it goes without saying that there is still wiggle room for the forecast to change.

As of this morning, a swath of 3"-6" will be likely in areas to the north and west of the Rochelle and Sterling areas. Those who live south closer to I-88 and I-90 will end up on the shorter end of the accumulation stick, picking up 1"-3". On the backside of Thursday's snow-maker, the attention then turns to the cold that arrives for Friday. Despite sunshine being in full-effect, the fresh snow will limit our temperature climb, limiting most spots to the low 20s. Thankfully, and in a similar fashion to previous cold dips, this one will be brief. Highs return to the 40s starting Sunday.

Wind Advisory Issued, Blustery AM Commute

Wind Advisory:

In a similar fashion to Tuesday evening, the start of our Wednesday features strong winds. This is mainly due to the passage of our next cold front which is expected to happen later this morning. 

This places the timing of the strongest winds during the morning commute. For that, the National Weather Service has placed Winnebago, Boone, McHenry, Ogle, Lee, and Dekalb Counties under a WIND ADVISORY. This advisory will run until noontime today as winds could gust between 40-45 mph. If you plan to be out on the roads, especially in a high-profile vehicle, make sure to travel with caution. Winds look to slowly subside as the afternoon progress. However, gusts up to 25 to 30 mph will be possible.

Winter returns late week with accumulating snow and cold

A WINTER STORM WATCH has been issued for most of northern Illinois beginning late Wednesday night, lasting through Thursday evening, as another round of heavy snow is likely to move across parts of the area.

The rain and wind will come to an end Wednesday morning following the passage of a second cold front. That front will then become the driving force behind the next storm system moving in on Thursday. Where that front sets up is likely where the surface low will track. 

Low pressure will quickly develop on the lee side of the Rockies Tuesday night, moving into the panhandles of Oklahoma and Texas before dipping briefly to the south, moving northeast through Missouri - close to St. Louis - and into central Illinois. This type of storm track does place a portion of northern Illinois and southern Wisconsin within an area of heavier snow, but the exact location of the heavier snow axis is still a little harder to pin down. 

Winds will turn to the northeast Thursday pushing temperatures into the 20s. It'll be a blustery and snowy Thursday morning and afternoon, with the snow coming to an end Thursday night. High pressure moving in Friday morning will push overnight temperatures into the low teens, with highs Friday warming only to the mid 20s.