Sunshine returns Wednesday afternoon

It took a little while, but sunshine returned Wednesday afternoon giving temperatures a little boost back into the 40s. 

Southwest winds will continue into the evening, remaining breezing through the overnight. This will help keep temperatures in the low to mid 30s. Under the mostly clear sky, it's possible we do see some areas of fog develop as clouds slowly increase Thursday morning and afternoon.

The increase in cloud cover will be the result of an incoming cold front. That front will move through southern Wisconsin and northern Illinois mid-afternoon Thursday. As it does, winds will shift to the northeast with cloud cover likely lasting into the evening.

Temperatures on Thursday will depend on just how fast clouds move in. A slower return of the cloud cover means temperatures have the potential to warm into the upper 40s. If clouds come in a little sooner, we'll likely remain in the low 40s. Regardless, temperatures will still remain above average through early next week.  

February to begin on a unseasonably warm note

Cloud cover Tuesday limited our full potential to efficiently warm, but the Rockford Airport still was able to squeeze in a 40-degree high. 

In better news, similar warmth is to be expected as we close the books on January and begin February. 

Clouds kick off the final day of January, with a quick decrease in cloud cover occurring as we approach the mid-morning hours. This, along with southwesterly wind will allow temperatures to reach the low 40s for the second consecutive day.

Skies remain partly cloudy overnight, with lows falling into the low 30s. Clouds will then be quick to blanket our skies by mid-day Thursday as a backdoor cold front approaches from the north-northeast. 

Despite the upward trend in cloud cover, flow out of the southwest should continue into the late-afternoon and early-evening hours. This will allow highs to peak in the mid to upper 40s. 

With the little to no atmospheric moisture to work with, Thursday's backdoor cold front will slide through dry. However. it will shift our surface flow to the north and northeast for Friday. This will likely drop high temperatures a few degrees, rounding out the week in the low 40s. 

As previously discussed, a strong blocking ridge of high pressure is to set up over the central U.S. This will keep our weather pattern extremely dry and mild as we jump into February. 

High temperatures over the weekend are to peak near the 50-degree mark, with low to mid 40s in the works for the beginning of next week. 

While this type of weather pattern will help river levels in the long run, flooding is possible along the Rock River in the short term. 

Mainly due to ice jams. A flood advisory is in effect until 10:45AM for the portion of the Rock that lies near the Grand Detour area. 

Minor flooding has been observed upstream in the White Oak subdivision west of the Grand Detour area. A Flood Watch is in effect for the portion of the Rock that lies near the small town of Como. This will be in place until further notice as ice jams may cause flooding concerns into the first week of February. Those who are placed under the flood watch are to monitor river levels closely and take action if flooding occurs.

Highs Tuesday reach 40 degrees

 

Despite the cloud cover Tuesday afternoon high temperatures warmed into the upper 30s, with a few locations hitting the 40-degree mark. This is the first 40-degree high temperature for Rockford so far this year, and the first 40-degree high temperature since the end of December 2023.

Clouds will stick around through the night as overnight lows dip into the upper 20s. Wednesday will feature a cloudy start, but we skies should clear by the afternoon. The faster the cloud cover clears, the warmer afternoon temperatures will get. If, however, clouds are slow to clear then highs are likely to remain in the 30s.

A backdoor cold front moving in from the northeast Thursday will shift the southwest wind from Wednesday afternoon to the northeast. This will also give us a little more cloud cover for the afternoon. Temperatures, however, should still warm into the 40s. Highs Saturday and Sunday could even come close to 50 degrees, depending on the cloud cover.

Strong winds in the jet stream will move across northern Mexico late in the week. This will help carve

out a ridge of high pressure over the Great Lakes and Midwest this weekend. The ridge will hold strong through the weekend and into next week which will help keep temperatures well above average through the first full week of February. We may begin to see a little bit of a pattern change after the 8th or 9th of the month which could feature temperatures returning back close to average (low 30s) during that time.  

Scattered light mix today, 40s return Wednesday

It's hard to believe that we're about to hit the 5 year mark since a dangerously cold arctic air-mass left Rockford with an all-time record low.

I'm happy to say that 5 years later, there are no signs of such an air-mass becoming part of the forecast. In fact, winter won't be participating much as we jump into the first few days of February. 

The only sign of winter will come today in the form of a weak clipper system. This will keep skies mostly cloudy as well as introduce a small chance for a few light mixed showers into the early-evening. Impacts to your daily routine will be low considering how mild we have been over the past week. 

Any chance for a mixed shower should fully come to a close near or shortly after midnight, leaving us dry but mostly cloudy overnight.

Wednesday features a mark that Rockford hasn't seen since the end of December, highs at or above the 40-degree mark. In fact, a blocking pattern setting up aloft in the atmosphere will help keep the 40-degree weather around into next week. 

Overnight lows during this stretch will also come in well-above average, landing in the low 30s. Along with the unseasonably mild temperatures comes a better shot at some sunshine as this blocking pattern will help keep any disturbances away.

Clouds and fog keep steady, but above average, temperatures

 

The spread in temperatures from morning lows to afternoon highs has been rather small over the last week. This has been due to the abundance of cloud cover and dense fog. The average high temperature for late January is 29 degrees, and the average low is 14 degrees. Highs the last week have been in the middle to upper 30s, but overnight lows have been well above average in the low 30s.

This warmth has also helped to accelerate the snow melt over the last several days. The spread in temperatures will continue to remain small the next few days with clouds and fog sticking around through at least Wednesday.

By the middle to end of the week high temperatures will warm even further as a strong blocking pattern takes shape across the middle of the country. This will allow unseasonable warmth to continue to build with afternoon highs by the middle to end of the week warming into the middle to upper 40s! Winds will shift to the northeast by the weekend, but high temperatures are likely to remain in the 40s during the time.

Dense Fog Advisory expanded to include more of northern Illinois

In a similar fashion to the past couple of mornings, the threat for Dense Fog exists. 

A DENSE FOG ADVISORY is in place for Winnebago, Boone, Ogle, Lee, Dekalb, Jo-Daviess, Carroll, Stephenson, and Whiteside County in N. Illinois as well as Green and Rock County up in S. Wisconsin until 10AM. Up until then, visibility will likely be sitting at a 1/4 mile or less. 

If you plan to be out and about, take it slow and travel with extra caution. Also, be on the lookout for slick spots, especially on back roads, bridges, and overpasses. Temperatures ahead of the morning commute are sitting either at or below the 32°, which would make for freezing fog. Again, freezing fog is consisted of "supercooled" water droplets that can freeze instantly on any exposed surfaces.

With winds remaining light for much of the morning, fog may linger into the mid-day hours. Once the fog has fully lifted, the rest of Monday features a mostly cloudy sky with highs in the upper 30s. 

Our next system is then scheduled to arrive overnight into Tuesday in the form of a clipper system. With it will be a chance for a few scattered light rain showers Monday night, followed by a light mix of rain and wet snow throughout the day Tuesday. We shouldn't expect accumulations with this upcoming chance and with road temperatures being too warm, travel impacts will be low. 

 

Quickly behind the clipper system will be a ridge of high pressure which will help dry out the forecast for Wednesday. With winds being more out of the south and southwest, expect high to peak in the upper 30s and for some low 40s. This spike in temperatures is very well expected to continue into Thursday as we await the arrival of our next cold front.

Locally dense fog possible Sunday night

 

A DENSE FOG ADVISORY has once again been issued for Jo Daviess, Carroll, and Whiteside counties beginning at Midnight and lasting through 9am Monday. The fog was quick to clear Sunday thanks to drier air moving in and an increasing wind from the northwest. For the first time in nearly a week visibility area wide made it to 10 miles - which is considered unlimited/full visibility. We even managed to clear some of the cloud cover allowing sunshine to shine bright for a couple hours earlier in the day.

Cloud cover, however, was quick to build back in leaving skies mostly cloudy Sunday evening. Fog has been developing well to the west of the Stateline in Iowa along the back edge of the thicker cloud cover, and it's likely we'll see at least partial clearing take place locally overnight. Wherever we do, temperatures will drop into the 20s, low 20s for some, and fog will redevelop. This is why the dense fog advisory has been issued. It's possible the advisory gets extended further to the east tonight, but there is still a big enough question on clearing to hold off on issuing one right now.

Freezing fog will also be possible and could create some slick conditions, especially on elevated surfaces Monday morning. Some of the fog may lift by Monday afternoon with a little sunshine trying to appear once again. But clouds will be on the increase again ahead of a clipper-like system that'll swing through the Great Lakes Monday night and Tuesday. This will bring with it our next chance for a few light rain showers Monday night, mixed in with some snow showers throughout the day Tuesday. No accumulations are expected, but a few heavier bursts of snow showers will be possible.

Quick clipper Tuesday brings light mix/snow showers

Following the potential for locally dense fog Monday morning, skies will remain mostly cloudy for much of Monday afternoon as temperatures only warm to the mid-30s. Still above average, just as it has been for the last several days. In fact, there hasn't been much of a temperature spread since early last week between daytime highs and nighttime lows thanks to the clouds and fog. That'll change by the end of the week when we see a few overnight lows dip into the 20s.

Winds will turn to the southwest Monday evening ahead of a cold front that'll slip across the western Great Lakes early Tuesday. This front is tied to an area of low pressure that'll move across Lake Michigan and into northern Indiana Tuesday evening. There isn't much moisture with the front, but colder temperatures moving in aloft will allow a light wintry mix to develop late Monday night. Surface temperatures above 32 degrees should limit any freezing rain potential, but there may some light freezing rain through early Tuesday.

As the colder air settles in Tuesday afternoon a few snow showers will be possible. While no accumulations are expected, a few bursts of heavier snow can't be ruled out during the afternoon and early evening. Temperatures Tuesday will warm into the middle 30s. We'll hang on to the cloud cover for the afternoon Wednesday with highs back in the upper 30s.  

Showers continue, mainly dry weekend ahead

Rockford, Rochelle, and DeKalb were able to pick up .20" to .30" from last night's rainfall.This did limit the potential for dense fog in those areas. 

However, a section of the Stateline which includes Jo-Daviess, Whiteside, Stephenson, and Carroll County remain under a Dense Fog Advisory. This will run until 10AM this morning and up until then, visibility will rapid fluctuate between locations.

Rain from overnight did taper off a bit as we inched closer to the morning commute. 

Despite that, I would still have your umbrella with you as on and off showers will be possible until we hit the late-morning hours. That's when forecast models introduce a more widespread area of light rain showers, with chances remaining rather likely into the first few hours of the afternoon. 

Rain will taper off ahead of the evening commute and once it does, our attention for the 4th time this week turn to the potential for dense fog. Visibility Friday night into Saturday morning could drop to 1/4 mile or less.

After this storm system departs, a slightly stronger system will approach the region over the weekend. For the most part, models keep this system well south enough to where most if not all of the rainfall will occur to our south and east.

Because of that, much of the weekend will remain dry with skies remaining cloudy. High temperatures won't change much from what we've had this week, peaking in the mid to upper 30s.

Steady, widespread rain follows morning dense fog

For the second consecutive morning, dense fog alerts cover much of the central United States. Of course, that does include N. Illinois and S.Wisconsin.

Visibility up until the expiration of the advisory will likely be sitting at a 1/4 mile or less. Travel with caution if you're out and be aware that visibility will rapidly fluctuate between locations. We may also see some drizzle and mist as we await the arrival of the steadier, more widespread rain that is expected to move in during the afternoon.

Rain chances begin to ramp up shortly before the evening commute, remaining likely overnight into daybreak Friday morning. 

During the overnight hours, it's not out of the question with the amount of atmospheric moisture in place that the steady rain could feature a few heavy downpours. Some fog will likely develop as the main round of showers begins to taper off. 

Rainfall totals for most will land in the .5"-.75" range. While some of the rain will be absorbed by the current snow pack, melting will continue which could lead to more runoff as we jump into the weekend. 

Aside from a slim shower chance Saturday night into Sunday morning, much of the upcoming weekend will remain dry but cloudy. High temperatures will continue to peak in the upper 30s.

Dense fog likely, slick spots possible during the morning commute

From one travel headache to another... A Dense Fog Advisory continues for all of northern Illinois and southern Wisconsin until 10AM...

Up until this advisory expires, visibility will fluctuate, likely falling to a 1/4 mile or less. 

If you plan to be out on the roads, be sure to give yourself extra time for travel and increase the distance between you and other cars. It's also important to remember to travel through dense fog with your low beams - never your brights. 

The first of two systems will be passing through this morning, bringing the chance for scattered light rain into the mid-day hours. 

At the start, temperatures will be above freezing. However, there could be a spot or two where the air temperature drops to 31 or 32 degrees. If so, this will provide a small opportunity for freezing drizzle or rain before precipitation transitions back to regular rain by the mid-morning hours.

Once rain tapers off, we'll be left under a mostly cloudy sky with temperatures in the upper 30s. As for tonight, same story, different night. 

Clouds hang tight, with fog once again becoming a possibility ahead of Thursday's morning commute. So we'll have to see if the fog will become dense enough for another round of dense fog advisories. 

The stronger of the two systems slides to our east tomorrow, bringing with it a more widespread round of rain during the afternoon and evening. Again, plan on giving yourself extra time for the morning commute while also making sure to take the umbrella with you. Rain will remain likely overnight Thursday into daybreak Friday. Temperatures both Thursday and Friday look to peak in the upper 30s, staying in the upper 30s into the weekend.

Entire Stateline remains under a Dense Fog Advisory

 

The wintry weather from Tuesday morning has moved out but clouds, fog, and even drizzle will persist through much of the evening. Dense fog will develop overnight and that's why we have a Dense Fog Advisory now in place for northern Illinois and southern Wisconsin.

The weather pattern the next few days will remain active with several storm systems impacting the Midwest and Great Lakes. The next one moves in late Tuesday night and could bring a brief period of light freezing rain before quickly changing over to rain showers Wednesday morning. For most, temperatures will remain above freezing. However, there could be some locations where the air temperature drops to 31 or 32 degrees. If so, the freezing rain may linger a little longer during the morning before transitioning over to all rain mid-morning. The impacts from any freezing rain that may develop should be less than what they were Tuesday morning, but slick conditions on untreated surfaces such as parking lots, sidewalks, and driveways are still possible. Be careful on bridges and overpasses as well.

The rain showers will come to an end by the afternoon as temperatures warm once again into the middle 30s, but areas of drizzle will persist through the evening. We will then see fog redevelop Wednesday night, becoming dense again through Thursday morning.

Rainfall totals Wednesday will add up to a quarter of an inch, with drizzle expected by the afternoon. The next round of rain moves in Thursday with another quarter of an inch. The weather pattern begins to settle down some by the end of the week, but we'll keep the cloud cover around through at least the weekend.

Dense fog follows wintry mix Tuesday night

 

A DENSE FOG ADVISORY has been issued for all of northern Illinois and southern Wisconsin beginning 6pm Tuesday and lasting through 10am Wednesday.

Areas of fog have already developed following the wintry mix early Tuesday. The fog will continue to thicken through the rest of the afternoon and evening, with dense fog likely shortly after sunset. This means visibility could fall under a quarter of a mile in some locations through Wednesday morning.

Be sure to give yourself extra time on the roads and increase the distance between you and the car in front of you. Remember to use your low beams - never your brights - and travel with caution through Tuesday night and Wednesday morning.

It's likely the dense fog will lift by mid-morning Wednesday, but we will still continue with some fog through the afternoon and evening.

  

Freezing rain, wet snow to bring impacts to the morning commute

A WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY remains in effect for all of northern Illinois until noon. The portion of the advisory that includes our south central Wisconsin areas runs until 2PM.

Currently, precipitation continues to march northward towards the Illinois/Wisconsin border. With regional temperatures sitting close to the freezing mark, this will start out as freezing rain. 

If you plan to be out for the morning commute, make sure to implement extra time into the commute as roads, especially untreated and elevated surfaces will be icy. Also, give yourself enough following and stopping distance to avoid accidents and skidding. Sidewalks and parking lots will also be susceptible to the freezing rain that falls this morning. So please watch your step. 

Again, ice accumulations for those north of I-88 should wind up  at or below a tenth of an inch. The “heaviest” and more impactful ice totals continue to be focused along and south of the interstate. From there, a quick transition to a wintry mix/wet snow is set to occur. Snow may fall for a couple of hours resulting in minor, slushy accumulations. 

Areas along and north of 20 have the best chance for 1"-2" snow totals. Precipitation should taper off during the first few hours of the afternoon, leaving us mostly cloudy. However, a rush of warm air aloft will help bring the potential for evening and overnight dense fog. As of this moment, the National Weather Service doesn't have any dense fog alerts in place for the Stateline. That's something we'll have to monitor once the afternoon arrives. 

Following the conclusion of today's wintry mess, our weather pattern remains somewhat active as we jump into the second half of the week. Another storm system sliding in from the south will bring the chance for scattered freezing rain at first, with a transition to all rain shortly after daybreak. Wednesday's chances should conclude either at or shortly after mid-day, leaving us mostly cloudy once again. 

Winter Weather Advisory issued for freezing rain and snow Monday night/Tuesday morning

 

A WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY has been issued for all of northern Illinois and southern Wisconsin for a combination of freezing drizzle/rain Monday evening and overnight, mixing in with wet snow Tuesday morning.

The start and end times of the advisory vary depending on where you live within the Stateline, but road conditions are likely to become slick through the overnight Monday and into Tuesday morning. This will have some impacts on Tuesday morning's commute.

Freezing drizzle has already been reported across northern Illinois, even though it isn't showing up well on radar. Along with a few viewer reports of freezing drizzle, visibility has also dropped over the last couple of hours. This is a good indication that there is either mist or drizzle occurring in those locations. And with temperatures either at or just below freezing across much of northern Illinois, the drizzle is likely freezing on contact. 

Untreated road surfaces, sidewalks, driveways, bridges, and overpasses are likely to be slick through the evening. After about 9pm/10pm, light freezing rain will begin to work its way north into the region. For the majority of the night the main precipitation type will end up as freezing rain, although some rain showers may try to mix in from the south. 

This will create anywhere from a glaze of ice up to a tenth of an inch of ice accumulation for most, although there could be locally higher amounts to the southeast. The greatest impacts from the freezing rain will occur after 9pm, and last through 9am Tuesday. Around daybreak Tuesday wet snow will also be possible for some, accumulating to a couple inches in a few locations. The highest likelihood of that occurring appears to be for those in southern Wisconsin, far northern and northwest Illinois. This, along with the freezing rain, could make travel rather difficult during the morning commute. 

Most of the wintry precipitation will be ending around Noon, with mostly cloudy skies expected during the afternoon and evening. Dense fog will then be possible late Tuesday night into Wednesday with temperatures in the low 30s.   

Wintry mix, freezing rain brings early-week travel impacts

I'm sure a lot of you are saying the same thing I am which is "FINALLY, we are done with the Arctic air". For the time being, this is true as all signs point to much warmer temperatures moving forward. At the same time, old man winter isn't finished playing games with the Stateline just yet.

Two waves of precipitation will be marching through to kick off the work week. Both of which will bring the likelihood for us to see all types of precipitation, including freezing drizzle/rain. 

For the first wave, all of our N. Illinois counties with the exception of Jo-Daviess County will be under a WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY until noon today. This is to take into account the likelihood for impacts to the morning commute in the form of icy spots, mainly on untreated and elevated surfaces. 

The second arrives this evening, lasting into the first half of Tuesday. For this, N. Illinois will be placed under a second WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY from midnight - noon Tuesday. 

This round will have a significantly higher shot at encountering freezing rain, mainly from late this evening into early Tuesday morning. In between both rounds will be a lull in precipitation, maybe patchy freezing drizzle from time to time.

Accumulations before the changeover to a wintry mix will range from a glaze to 0.10" across much of N. Illinois and S. Wisconsin. Higher ice accumulations up to 0.25" can be expected south and east of I-88. This is enough for windshields to become coated, bridges to become slick, and a light coating of ice will to be possible on trees. 

 

Once ice accumulations get over the 0.25" mark, trees will sag or even break, roads will be icy, and even sporadic power outages will be possible. 

Precipitation remains in the form of a wintry mix into mid-morning Tuesday, with chances decreasing into the afternoon. Highest impacts will be felt during the morning commute, so plan on extra, extra time and take it slow while traveling.

Slippery travel, sub-zero wind chills likely for Friday morning's commute

The Stateline saw another round of light and powdery snow overnight, enough to create more headaches for those traveling during the early morning hours. 

Even though we saw the conclusion of our snow chances well ahead of the morning commute, winds will remain quite strong Friday morning. Considering the dry nature of the snow and the fact that gusts could peak around 30 mph, blowing and drifting will be a big concern. Especially for those morning commuters that travel in open areas.  

Behind last night's quick-moving system will also be another dose of cold arctic air. One that will drop wind chills well below zero not only this morning, but Saturday and Sunday morning. 

So before you head out the door, make sure to dress appropriately by adding a few extra layers to keep you insulated and warm. These gusty northwesterly winds stay put for Friday afternoon, limiting high temperatures to the upper single-digits. 

Wind chill values look to drop even lower overnight into Saturday morning. For that, the National Weather Service has placed all of northern Illinois as well as Green and Rock County up in S. Wisconsin under a WIND CHILL ADVISORY. 

The portion that includes Winnebago, Boone, Ogle, Lee, and DeKalb County will run from 12AM to 9AM Saturday. Jo-Daviess, Carroll, Stephenson, and Whiteside County will be under said advisory from 3AM to 9AM. Wind chills up until mid-morning could be as low as -25, posing the risk for frostbite within 30 minutes.

An area of high pressure that has ties to the Arctic will inch closer as Saturday progresses. This will likely leave skies sun-filled, with temperatures barely peaking in double-digit figures. 

As this Arctic high pressure system slides overhead, it will bring the core of this frigidly cold air with it. This will allow temperatures and wind chill values to fall well below zero come Sunday morning. 

On a positive note, temperatures by Sunday afternoon will end up close to the 20-degree mark. And the warm up doesn't stop there. Early next week features highs in the low to mid 30s, which if you punch that into a calculator lands 20 to 25 degrees warmer than highs today and Saturday.