Wet week ahead

Hope you were able to soak up the sun last week because we won't be seeing a whole lot of it this week.  Two systems will be affecting our weather throughout the remainder of the week bringing not only warmer temperatures, but rain as well.  System number one is currently moving into eastern Kansas/western Missouri this morning with rain stretching from northern Iowa, into the Quad Cities and down through southern Illinois.  System number two is just in the "developing" stages in southern Nevada and will move in by Thursday.  Rain will likely arrive from southwest to northeast late morning/early afternoon.  Rain amounts shouldn't be too significant with the first round of rain.  As system one weakens, system two will follow almost the same path and provide us with a little more rain Thursday into Friday.  I wouldn't be surprised if we heard even a couple claps of thunder!  Storms will be likely further to the south.  Severe storms moved through parts of Oklahoma Monday and will be likely into parts of Missouri, Arkansas and Louisiana today and tomorrow as the second low moves in.

The threat for stronger storms will shift a little further east Thursday as the second system moves into the southern Plains.

Dense Fog Tonight and Early Tuesday.... Rain Tuesday Afternoon

Low level moisture contiunes to be trapped under an inversion. Light fog persisted all day, and will get thicker during the overnight hours. A DENSE FOG ADVISORY has been issued for the entire area through mid morning on Tuesday. With widepread visibilites below 1/4 mile caution is advised in driving overnight and early on Tuesday. A strong low pressure system will move across the southern plains tonight, and the central plains on Tuesday. It will be drawing Gulf moisture northward in the the area on Tuesday, and spread rain showers into the area during the afternoon. Rain showers will contine on Tuesday night through the morning on Wednesday as the associated low pressure storm center stalls out over Iowa, and slowly weakens.

A warm front will move north of the area by early Tuesday. It will bring the mildest temperatures to Rock ford that we have seen for the last 100 days.  Not since December 1, 2009 have we seen the mercury rise above 50 degrees.  On December 1st it was 56 degrees.  On Wednesday it looks like the high temperature may be around 54 degrees.

Another low will spin up over Missouri on Thursday  pumping more moisture northward in the Stateline as it moves slowly across central Illinois.  More rain showers will continue off and on through Saturday.  The rains this week may be enough to cause significant rises on the Rock River, and its tributaries during the next 7 to 10 days when some streams may exceed flood stage

by Meteolologist
Eric Nefstead

Low Beams Needed this Morning...

....and maybe a foghorn!  A Dense Fog Advisory is in effect for all of northern Illinois and southern Wisconsin through 11am today.  Visibilites in most locations have been reduced down to a quarter of a mile, so take it easy out there.  Temperature wise we are starting off on the mild side and will make it into the low to mid 40s this afternoon.  If we can get the fog out early enough and some sunshine today, highs will make it into the upper 40s. 

Dense Fog Advisory Though Mid Morning Monday

A vertically stacked tight little disturbance disturbance is moving off to the east this evening.  It produced light amounts of rain across the Stateline this morning through noontime. The rainfall total at the Rockford Airport was 0.21".  Skies have remained mostly cloudy after the departure of the rain. Circulation is relatively weak across the area, and with weak high pressure following in behind the low, skies have attempted to clear, but fog is forming and thickening.  Visibilties are anticipated to drop below 1/4 mile across north central Illinois and all of southern Wisconsin overnight, so a DENSE FOG ADVISORY has been issued through the mid morning hours on Monday.  Caution is advised if you are driving later tonight and early Monday.  Be sure to not overdrive your headlights, and use your the low beams.   The rest of Monday will remain mostly cloudy, although with the strengthening March sun, there may be some sunshine through the clouds in the afternoon.  

Temperatures this week are expected to average a little above normal, with good chance that we will reach 50 degrees on Wednesday or Thursday for the first time since December 1, 2009 when we touched 56 degrees.

The next system to have an impact on the Stateline is moving through Arizona this evening. It will cross the southern Rockies tonight, and move into the Texas/Oklahoma panhandle on Monday, and begin an intensification process that will bring rain into northern Illinois on Tuesday afternoon.  The low itself will move to Iowa, and stall out as it drags a warm front, and Gulf of Mexico moisture northward across the Stateline into southern Wisconsin.  There could be some moderate rainfall Tuesday night into early Wednesday before the low weakens and the rains move off to the northeast.  The models are indicating that there will be a secondary low pressure system that will then develop over Arkansas or southern Missouri, and that will also move toward the northeast into central Illinois dragging more Gulf moisture northward, and produce another couple of bands of moderate rainfall  to move into the Stateline on Thursday into Thursday night with some lingerning showers possibly lasting through Friday into Friday evening.  It is way to early to make an accurate estimate about how much rain our area will receive from the weather systems this week, but it does appear likely that we will get at least 1" of rain from both systems.  It is possible that it could be heavier than that, and if rainfall totals exceed 2",  there will probably be some flooding on the Rock River, and it's tributaries before the end of the week.  We will keep you posted as these systems develop this week.

By Meteorologist
Eric Nefstead
Candice will update for you on Monday morning.

Pulling Down the Curtain on the Sunshine....

After two weeks of dry weather, and the last 4 day with gorgeous sunshine, the pattern is flip/flopping. The Canadian high pressure that provided our fabulous weather has shifted off to the east. We have had our last sunny day for at least the next week. A vigorous mid level disturbance is located over northeastern Nebraska tonight, and it has assisted in the development of a surface low between Omaha, and Sioux City. The surface low will move to near the quad cities by noon on Sunday. Clouds and precipitation have spread out across Iowa in advance of the eastward moving system. Some light rain could cross the Mississippi River into far northwestern Illinois by midnight, and reach the Rockford area toward daybreak. Temperatures will be cold enough that some light freezing rain may develop. It is not anticipated to be heavy enough to cause any significant problems for the local area. The coldest temperatures tonight will occur by midnight, and hold steady or rise a bit later on as the clouds thicken up associated with the system moving in from the west. Sunday will be showery day under the clouds as the system moves across northern Illinois. Rain will be done by evening, but it will remain mostly cloudy overnight with the potential for fog development from rain evaporating, and minimal air movemetnt. Patchy fog may linger into Monday morning, and the clouds may hang on a while too, as a dirty high moves in from the northern plains. So, Monday will be a dry day with some breaks possible in the clouds. The next system is a formidable strong low pressure system, both at the surface and aloft, that will move from off the California coast tonight to a postion over the Texas/Oklahoma panhandle by 6 pm on Monday night.  It's effects on the midwest are still in question, but it looks as if it does have the potential for producing a prolongued showery period in the Stateline from Tuesday through Thursday, and possibly into Friday.  It will become a closed system as it crawls slowly eastward to a position over the middle Mississippi Valley by Thursday. Although heavy rainfall is not anticipated for our area with this system, it could produce up to 1" of rain over several days next week. With the melting snow and the runoff from the rain because of frozen ground, there may be some rises on the Rock and other area rivers by mid to late week..
by Eric Nefstead

Sunshine Dominates!

The sunshine sure has been nice the past couple of days not only lifting afternoon temperatures but also the mood of everyone!  I know we're only in the first week of March but I decided to do a little comparison to see how much sun we saw the first week of February.  Well... not a whole lot.  The majority of the week was dominated by mostly cloudy/cloudy skies while we only saw one day with partly cloudy skies.  The opposite has been true so far in March!  No cloudy days!  We'll add a few more clouds this weekend and next week but at least we've got the sunshine today!

Extreme long range forecasting...to a new level

No need to look any further in case you were wondering what the forecast would be June 18th, 2012!  Long range forecasting has been taken to a whole new level!  Click here to begin planning your vacations two years in advance because you know you can't go wrong!  Yikes -what will they come up with next!