Atlantic Picks Up Again

It's a wave train of tropical systems moving through the Atlantic this morning.  First up is Hurricane Igor which has quickly gained category four status as it continues to move westward.  Behind it just moving off the African coast is Tropical Storm Julia with winds around 40 mph.  There is another area of showers and storms that the National Hurricane Center is watching that will more than likely bring heavy rains to parts of Hispaniola, Jamaica, Cuba and the Cayman Islands.  Hurricane Igor will continue its west/northwest movement over the next couple of days and is likely to intensify some before falling into an environment that may cause it to weaken by the middle to end of this week.  Tropical Storm Julia will also continue to move west/northwest as it moves along the southwestern edge of a mid-level ridge.  Neither Igor nor Julia are an immediate threat to the U.S. 

A warm start to the week

A weak cool front will pass through the Stateline overnight virtually unnoticed with just a windshift.  A severe thunderstorm developed over eastern Iowa early this evening causing 85 mph wind gusts at the Dubuque airport. It then moved southeast moving across Jo Daviess county causing 70 mph wind gusts near Hanover. It diminshed in intensity as it continued southeast across extreme southwestern Stephenson and northeastern Carroll county. Another thunderstorm developed, and caused brief downpours and gusty winds in the Rockford after 7:30 pm. The threat of thunderstorms is now over, and showers are falling apart. Other than that, skies will be mostly clear overnight with a light westerly wind. High pressure will be in complete control on Monday along with sunshine, and warm temperatures in the upper 70's. A system may graze the western sections of northern Illinois on Tuesday with some scattered showers, and possibly a thunderstorm. A system moving thru the area on Wednesday and Thursday will bring more widespread rain. The best chance of significant rain will be on Wednesday night into Thursday morning.  Friday with be partly sunny and pleasant with an afternoon high in the low 70's.  Another fast moving system with drop in from the northwest, and there will be a slight risk of showers and thunderstorms again on Saturday and Sunday.
By Meteorologist
Eric Nefstead

Pop Up Storms this Evening

Severe Thunderstorm Warning for Jo Daviess, Stephenson and Carroll counties until 6:45pm.

Severe Thunderstorm Warning for Jo Daviess County until 6pm.  Isolated storms have popped up ahead of an approaching cold front.  This storm is capable of producing winds over 80 mph, heavy rain and hail and is moving southeast around 45mph.  The storm will move southwest of Stockton and may move into the Mt. Carroll area withing the next 30 mins.



Storm Reports:
5:20pm - Dubuque, Dubuque County, IA - Thunderstorm Wind Gust: 85mph

 5:55pm  1 ENE Hanover, Jo Daviess County - Thunderstorm Wind Gust 70mph

5:55pm - 1 ENE Hanover, Jo Daviess County - Large Tree Branches Down

Fabulous Weather on Sunday

A sprawling high pressure centered over western Kansas tonight, will be the dominant weather feature affecting the Stateline for the next couple of days. Under mostly clear skies, lows will drop to the low 50s tonight. Sunshine will then boost temperatures into the mid to upper 70s on Sunday afternoon. This fair weather pattern will continue through Tuesday. There will be a slight chance of showers and thunderstorms on Wednesday. Chances of showers and isolated thunderstorms will continue off and on through Friday as a couple of cool fronts pass southeast through the area. Rainfall amounts are expected to be light. High temperatures are anticipated to be on the cool side (upper 60's to low 70's) from Tuesday through next weekend with a west to northwest airflow persisting from Canada.
By Meteorologist
Eric Nefstead

Colder Winters Ahead?

Some scientists, including Accuweather's Joe Bastardi, are predicting colder winters from 2013 onward. (See full article http://notrickszone.com/2010/09/10/joe-bastardi-future-shock-brutal-winters-ahead-from-2013-on-now-into-a-major-la-nina/). Since the Pacific Decadal Oscillation was in a warm phase for the past 30 years, El Ninos have been more frequent than La Ninas. Now that the Pacific is entering a cold phase, La Ninas are expected to dominate. This generally means colder winters for the American Midwest. However, solar activity and volcanoes are "wild cards" as climate drivers. Their unpredictable nature could throw a wrench into the above forecast. --TS

Study Finds El Ninos Growing Stronger

A study conducted by Tong Lee of NASA's Jet Propulsion Laboratory and Michael McPhaden of NOAA's Pacific Marine Environmental Laboratory found that the intensity of El Ninos in the central Pacific has nearly doubled, with the most intense event occurring in 2009-2010.  They have been measuring changes in El Nino intensity since 1982 by analyzing NOAA satellite observations of sea surface temperatures, checked against and blended with directly-measured ocean temperature data.  To read more on this study, click here.


image: Physical Oceanography Distributed Active Archive Centre

Tropical Depression Igor

Tropical Depression Igor is stirring-up the waters of the eastern Atlantic Ocean. Although it's only a depression with maximum sustained winds of 35 mph, it is moving over warm water and could become a strong hurricane by next week. So far, Igor has encountered plenty of wind shear in the upper levels of the atmosphere, inhibiting it's ability to strengthen (It was a tropical storm at one time). But the environment to the west of Igor doesn't include significant wind shear, so it'll have time to get more organized as it moves to the west. Although Igor isn't an immediate threat to land, it's track is uncertain and it could impact the Lesser Antilles later next week. It's also possible that Igor takes a more northerly turn, heading toward the U.S. mainland. Hopefully neither scenario happens, and Igor takes a sharp right hand turn and moves out to sea.  --TS