Hurricane Tomas Eyes Haiti

Tomas has regained strength this morning and now is a category one hurricane with winds reaching 85 mph.  Movement is currently to the northeast around 10 mph and the center of the storm sits just to the west of the already battered Haiti.  Low wind shear, high moisture and warm waters make it an ideal environment for Tomas to continue to strengthen within the next 24 hours before weakening some later this weekend.  While it's not expected that Haiti will receive a direct hit, the affect will still be devastating to a country that dealt with an earthquake at the beginning of the year and most recently a cholera outbreak.  Regardless of the exact track of Tomas, the most significant threat will be the heavy rainfall and mud slides.  This could produce major flash flooding due to the mountainous terrain and lack of vegetation for over 1 million people.

Convective Showers Today

A cold front plowing into the Stateline produced a few scattered rain showers this afternoon. We're calling these "convective showers" because the clouds associated with them had significant vertical growth. Even some small hail fell with these showers, and I am pretty confident that it was hail (not sleet) due to the convective nature of the precipitation. (Sleet falls when you have a stable situation with "flatter" clouds and a layer of sub-freezing air below warmer air aloft. That wasn't the case today... Today we had updrafts within the clouds producing the frozen precipitation we're calling hail.) A few showers with a flake or two of wet snow could fall through early evening, then look for decreasing clouds after about 10pm or so.
Did you get any pictures of yesterday's hail (or graupel)?  If so, please send them to weather@wtvo.com!
 --TS

Another Disaster for Haiti?

Tomas has regained tropical storm status with 45 mph winds and heavy rain. It's now located 250 miles S/SE of Kingston, Jamaica and is moving toward the north/northwest at 6 mph. A curve toward the northeast is expected in the next 24 hours, and this projected motion will bring Tomas right over the nation of Haiti. To make matters worse, Tomas could strengthen to a minimal hurricane by the time it makes landfall there. High winds, rain in excess of 5-12", and a significant storm surge could pummel the south and west coasts of Haiti. In fact, Haiti is already under a tropical storm warning and a hurricane watch. Haiti is still recovering from that major earthquake of 10 months ago, and is nowhere near prepared for a strong tropical storm or minimal hurricane. Haiti is a very mountainous nation, and is therefore prone to mudslides. Recent deforestation could make the mudslides even worse.  --TS

Wednesday Morning Weather

Light showers can be expected this morning ahead of a cold front that will pass through later this morning/early afternoon.  We'll see a little sunshine later today as northwest winds pick up some keeping highs in the middle to upper 50s.

Election Forecast

No excuss in the weather department today for not getting out and voting.  While it is a little chilly this morning, temperatures by mid-afternoon will sit in the middle 50s.  By the time the polls close tonight we will have fallen back into the upper 40s.

Election Day Weather Stats

Tomorrow is the day when millions of Americans excercise their right to vote, and the weather forecast for this day is on many of our minds. Tomorrow, we're forecasting a low of 31 and a high of 56 with mostly sunny skies and light winds. These are great weather conditions to go out and vote! For the presidential election in 2008, our high was a balmy 73 and our low was a September-like 50! Our normal high and low for November 2nd are 53 and 34. So we've been lucky in recent years with nice weather for major elections in terms of temperature. In terms of precipitation, no measurable rain or snow fell in 2008 nor is it expected this year.  --TS

Chilly Weather to Come

The weather the next couple of days will remain fairly quiet thanks to high pressure across the northern Great Lakes.  That will change, however, once a cold front passes Wednesday morning that could bring a few showers - and maybe even a few wet flakes mixed in by Thursday - and temperatures in the 40s as highs both Thursday and Friday!  Overnight lows look to fall back into the 20s.  Wonder if it's time to turn on the heat?