Getting Close to the Record

With almost full sunshine expected once again this afternoon there should be no excuss not to take advantage of this beautiful November day.  Highs Monday afternoon reached the upper 60s to near 70° and I think there is no reason we shouldn't reach that again today, or maybe higher!  Our record high for today is 74° set back in 1999.  Any bets on whether or not we'll get close to that?

Halloween Moon

I know it's a little past due, but I came across this picture from the CIMSS Satellite Blog the other day of the crescent moon on Halloween night caught by GOES-13 (Geostationary Operational Environmental Satellite).  The satellite image shows a band of clouds moving over the Pacific Northwest and British Columbia.  Pretty cool!  It turns out that it's not as rare as one might think for the moon to show up on a GOES image.

Now I have the Dave Matthews Band song "Satellite" stuck in my head! :)

Treats in the November Sky

This week, budding astronomers can take advantage of the mainly clear November sky and spot meteors from the Comet 55P/Tempel-Tuttle. This shower is known as the Leonid meteor shower. It begins November 10th and lasts through November 23rd, with a peak on November 17th. Watch for about 20 meteors per hour with this particular shower, and beware of a full moon getting in the way of viewing on November 21st.

Another, smaller meteor shower is already in progress. The Northern Taurid shower can already be viewed, and will peak on November 13th. This shower can be found by looking for the western Taurus constellation, and produces about five meteors per hour in a dark sky. --TS

November Warmth to be followed by Cooler Weather

How does that old saying go..."All good things must come to an end."  High temperatures through the first half of this week will range roughly 15-20 degrees above average!  This is all thanks to a ridge of high pressure and persistant southerly winds that have found a home across the Great Lakes.  That will, however, be changing as we head towards the latter part of the week as a trough of low pressure currently in the west will settle in across much of the northern tier of the U.S.  The maps on the left are the 6-10 Day Outlooks from the Climate Prediction Center and it shows a vast majority of the country falling to below average temperatures for this upcoming weekend and into next week.  It also looks like we'll be right on the edge of above average precipitation as well.  Looking even further into the following week and it appears these cooler temperatures will last into the third week of November.  So enjoy the warmth while it's here!

The Warm Side of the High....

Sprawling high pressure continues over the southeastern states with a center over Mississippi tonight.  It ridges all the way from Quebec through Ohio, Mississippi and Lousiana, through the western Gulf of Mexico into eastern Mexico.  The east side of the high remnains quite cold.  In fact, it was warmer this afternoon in South Dakota were temperatures were in the middle 70's than it was in Miami, Florida were it was in the 60's for most of the afternoon.  There could be some frost tonight as far south as northen Florida.  Meanwhile, a good southwesterly air flow has developed on the west side of the high from northern Mexico across the Texas panhandle, Oklahoma, Kansas into western Iowa.   Skies will be mostly clear overnight with some high thin cirrus clouds overhead.  Temperatures will drop into the mid to upper 30's across northern Illinois with a light southerly wind.  On Monday high pressure will continue to hold over the southeast, a  ridge of high presure aloft across the midwest will bring sunny skies and unseasonably warm temperatures to the Stateline on a southwesterly breeze 10 to 15 mph.  It will reach the mid 60's when the average for November 8th is 50 degrees.  It could reach the upper 60's to the west of Rockford.  With the southeastern high remaining stubborn, and ridging aloft a dry southwesterly air flow will continue through mid week.    You can never tell this time of year when we will get our last warm spell of the year.  In fact, it is possible the parts of the Stateline could see a 70 degree or higher temperature on Tuesday or Wednesday.  A cold front will edge in from the west and stall out across northwestern Illinois on Thursday.  By Thursday night it will be stationary across the area, and with Gulf moisture finally beginning to feed into the area, there could be some scattered showers developing.  On Friday it will be cooler, and there will be enough instability in place along with the moisture to cause some showers and possibly a thunderstorm or two.  It will get progressively colder through next weekend with a continuing chance of more showers.  By the time Sunday rolls around temperatures will be quite chilly with afternoon highs only in the low 40's.  The following week looks like it will be quite cold.  So, enjoy the warm temperatures and the sunshine of the next few days.

By meteorologist
Eric Nefstead

Nice Warming Trend on the Way!

Cold Canadian high pressure is centered over Tennessee tonight, and ridges from Quebec in eastern Canada southwest across Texas into eastern Mexico.  The ridge will effectively block any return flow of moisture into the midwest for the next several days. A good southwesterly wind flow is developing with the help of a pretty decent pressure gradient on the back side of the high.   Origins of the air will be out of northern Mexico across western Texas for the next couple of days.  This air is very dry, so we can expect lots of sunshine through Tuesday with temps warming to around 60 degrees on Sunday afternoon, into the low to middle 60's on Monday, and into the mid to upper 60's on Tuesday.  A 70 degree reading or better cannot be ruled out for parts of northern Illinois on Tuesday afternoon.  By Wednesday some moisture beginning to feed in from the Gulf will make for more clouds reducing temperatures a few degrees, and with a cool front approaching from the west, there could be some light rain showers.  The front will blow on through the area by early Thursday morning leaving skies partly sunny on Veterans Day.  It will be a little cooler, but not drastically so, with highs in the middle 50's on Thursday.  The front will stall out near the Ohio river on Thursday night and begin moving back toward the north as a warm front on Friday as an area of low pressure develops over Oklahoma.  Showers and some thunderstorms will develop ahead of that system Friday night into Saturday as some Gulf moisture gets involved, but nothing heavy is anticipated at this time.  Cooler air drawn into the system, as it moves across northern Illinois on Saturday, will drop afternoon temperatures back down close to averages for this time of year... around 50 degrees for an afternoon highs.

By the way, don't forget to turn your clocks back 1 hour before you go to bed tonight. Daylight savings time will be over as we go back to standard time.  How will that affect you?  Well, instead of the sun rising at 7: 37 am on Sunday morning, it will rise at 6:37 am, and instead of setting at 5:43 pm Sunday afternoon, it will set at 4:43 pm.  This will take some getting used to.  I guess there is a positive aspect to this.  We will all get an extra hour of sleep tonight!

By meteorologist
Eric Nefstead

Cold Won't Last for Long

The one good thing about the 'transition' seasons is that cold spells usually don't last that long.  While highs Friday will stay in the low to mid 40s, we'll gradually see a warming trend as we head into early next week.  The dip in the jetstream that covers the eastern 1/3 of the U.S. will begin to lift and allow southerly winds to sweep through the Great Lakes starting Saturday night.  While I'm not going to go too crazy with high temperatures I do believe the mid and maybe (I stress maybe) upper 60s aren't that far out of reach.  There are, however, a couple things we have going against us.  We must remember that it is November and that the sun angle is getting lower and lower and will begin setting sooner - especially now that we will turn our clocks back one hour.  Looking though at how warm temperatures will be a couple thousand feet above us, and especially if we can get those temperatures to mix down to the surface, I do believe that forecasting highs in the 60s Sunday, Monday and Tuesday of next week will definitely be a possibility!  So enjoy.....