New Decade, New Climate "Normals"

Stateline residents will soon have a new climate "normal" to rely on. Every ten years, the National Climate Data Center publishes a new set of normal highs, lows, precipitation, and other data for more than 10,000 sites across the United States. Each climate normal period is 30 years in length. So for the past decade, we've been relying on data from 1971 to 2000. The new climate normal period will include data from 1981 to 2010 and will be published sometime later this year. Normal temperatures (especially in terms of night time lows) are very likely to rise as the cool 1970s are eliminated from the climate normal period and the warmer 2000s are added.

Using the 1971 to 2000 climate normals, Rockford's average high and low temperature range from 27/10 on January 20th to 84/63 on July 18th. The annual average precipitation is 36.61", and we get 37.2" of snowfall in a "normal" year.

Light snow developing to the west and north

Look for a few light snow showers to begin to overspread the region through this evening.  The snow looks like it will mainly hug the highway 20 corridor with minor accumulations expected. 

Middle of the Month Could be Cold

The first week of January will see temperatures at or slightly below average but that could be changing if this current forecast pans out.  As we head into next week temperatures might take a nose dive well below average and stay there through mid-January.  The 6-10 and even 8-14 day outlooks from the Climate Prediction Center have all of the U.S sitting below average during this time period.  The reason, it looks like we may have a polar low move over Greenland which would cause the Arctic Oscillation to fall negative causing the jetstream to dig well south.  This would allow some very cold, arctic air to move straight down into the Gulf states. 

The second graphic is the observed height anomalies of the Arctic Oscillation and then the forecast anomalies (in red) which would take us to the middle of the month.  What I want you to notice is how this forecast takes us well below zero indicating a strong negative phase which could mean some very cold air across the Stateline.

Where Did the Snow Go?

That was the question I was asked by my three year old Sunday afternoon.  It's hard to believe that this time last week we had, in some spots, over a foot of snow on the ground and now there's nothing left of frosty except a few dirty snow piles.  That's what a strong southerly wind and warmer temperatures for a couple days will do.

As we head into this upcoming work week we'll get a few chances for the white stuff to fly.  The first will be later this afternoon as a clipper system moves across the Great Lakes.  The second will be another clipper slated to move through Wednesday afternoon.  While these two likely won't amount to much and we'll see little accumulation, we'll have to watch the one that could come through by the end of the week.  This one could have a better chance of an accumulation for us by this weekend followed by colder temperatures into next week.

Afraid of Winter....

...you might not be alone.  The winter months can be brutal, but add in the fear of everything that comes with it and it just might become unbearable.  From the wind to the cold and everything in between there actually are 'phobias' that people can experience when the term winter storm is mentioned.  So how about you?  Do you have any 'phobias' during the winter months?

The Quadrantids

The annual Quadrantid meteor shower is ramping-up across the Stateline. It occurs every year between January 1st and 10th. The peak this year is expected to occur sometime around 7pm on the 4th.  Partly cloudy skies are expected that evening, so we have a sporting chance of seeing this shower! In addition there is a new moon that evening, so moonlight won't interfere with viewing. Expect about 30 to 50 meteors per hour with this shower, and look toward the northeastern sky for best viewing. Some of the meteors may be bright enough to produce "fireballs."

Cold and Windy for the New Year

We ended 2010 warm and soggy and start 2011 cold and windy!  If you can believe it temperatures Friday made it into the low 50s (53° at 7:40 pm).  As the cold front moves to the east clouds will continue to wrap in behind with very gusty winds.  A few flurries or even light snow showers can be expected through the afternoon.  Temperatures have fallen into the middle teens in many locations with wind chills below zero!