Friday Morning Update - Umbrellas Needed

Light rain will continue to move east/northeast this morning with the initial upper level disturbance that is passing through Iowa.  We might see a little break in the rain late morning before an area of low pressure, currently in northern Texas, pulls northeast this afternoon.  This will keep the rain, heavy at times - especially to the east and southeast of the Rockford Metro, through the evening.  Most will likely see around a half an inch with a few locally higher totals possible.

Active Severe Weather Season?

It very well could be! A very tight temperature contrast is expected to set-up across the country this spring with cold, dry air across the northern tier and warm, moist air over the southeastern US. These two airmasses will clash at times, giving birth to strong cold fronts that will produce active thunderstorms. In addition to the strong frontal systems, we're also expecting an active jet stream across the country flowing from a deep trough in the west to a ridge of high pressure in the east. This jet stream will be another component of instability across the Midwest and lower Mississippi River valley.

Friday into Saturday

There is a little more clarity heading into this weekend but still some fine details that will need to be ironed out over the next day. 

Today: A weak disturbance moving through the Plains has allowed some precipitation to form through Wisconsin and back into Iowa but because the mid-levels of the atmosphere are still fairly dry, a lot of this is not making it to the ground.  It will take some time before we see any of that work through the Stateline and by the time it does, temperatures should be above freezing for it to fall in the form of light rain later this evening.

By Friday the next low will have begun to organize in the southern Plains with an inverted trough extending northeast into the Great Lakes.  Temperatures will remain above freezing so I do feel the majority of the afternoon should see all rain.  Amounts could range close to a half an inch to three quarters inch, but it also appears that the models might be over-doing the moisture some.  Either way we should see some rain by Friday afternoon.  There is still some discrepancy as to where exactly the low will track by Saturday morning as the early morning run of the NAM takes the low straight across northern Illinois with roughly six inches of snow accumulating by Saturday night.  Yikes!  While I'm not buying that one just yet, the colder air wrapping in on the back edge of this system will help the rain to transition over to probably some type of wintry mix late on Friday with a change over to snow by Saturday.

Don't Forget...

Spotter training classes are just right around the corner with the next one tomorrow night - Thursday, March 3rd.  This is an excellent way for you to learn more about what to look for if you want to become a spotter or are just curious about storm formation.  Classes are free and open to the public.

Is Winter Over?

That depends on who you ask! An astronomer will tell you (so will your calendar) that winter doesn't end until March 20th: The first day of astronomical spring. At this time, the sun's rays shine directly over the equator, signaling that the sun's most direct rays will continue to migrate further into the northern hemisphere.

If you ask a meteorologist or climatologist, you'll be told that spring starts today, March 1st! That's because, climatologically, December, January, and February are the three coldest months of the year in most places. March is warmer than any of these other three months, and grouping all of March's days into the "spring" category makes it simpler for record-keeping.

Solar Winter, as shown in the illustration above, includes the three months with the least amount of daylight hours: November, December, and January.

Another Messy Weekend Ahead?

While the details are still a little fuzzy this weekend, another wintry mix could be in our future Friday night/Saturday. 

While sunshine and temperatures in the low 40s can be expected today mother nature will remind us that it is still, in fact, the winter season.  A weak disturbance will move through during the afternoon hours Thursday which could bring a rain/snow mix into the evening.  By Friday a trough in the jetstream will begin to develop in the southwest causing a surface low to develop in the four corners - this is almost certain.  It's the track of the low Friday night into Saturday that's still a little up in the air.  As of this morning the GEM and ECMWF were taking the low from the Oklahoma panhandle and moving it through central and southern Illinois.  This would yield cooler weather for us on the weekend with a chance for a rain/snow or just all snow.  The GFS, however, takes the low further to the north which would likely push enough warm air across the Stateline for rain before changing over to snow on the backside Saturday night.  Also, the GFS is a lot quicker with the movement of the low while the GEM and ECMWF lag behind about a half a day.  My current thinking is to lean a little more towards the southern track with this storm, just like this past weekend as the GFS with this was a little too far to the north.  As always we'll continue to track and update as the weekend gets closer.  You may just want to pay closer attention to the forecast if you have any plans for this upcoming weekend.

Wildfires grow in Florida

image: wftv 9

A massive wildfire has burned nearly 10,000 acres and continues to burn in Volusia and Brevard counties in Florida Tuesday morning.  The fire started Monday and spread overnight burning a mobile home and closing parts of interstate 95.  ABC affiliate WFTV 9 has the complete story.