Things are Heating Up

A warm front stretches from a low located near Fargo, North Dakota toward the southeast across south central Minnesota, through the Quad Cities to near Paducah, Kentucky.  The front will move through the Rockford area by mid afternoon.  High pressure in the mid levels will cap the atmosphere so that no thunderstorms will develop as the front pushes on through.  The wind will pick up, and become gusty from the south to 30 mph, and it will get hot with a late afternoon high close to 90 degrees.  The Stateline will be in the warm sector overnight.  It will be warm and humid with the ovenight temperature failing to drop below 70 degrees.  With a cool front steadily advancing from the northwest, there could be some thunderstorm development after midnight.  The cool front is expected to enter extreme northwestern Illinois by 6 am on Saturday morning.  There is a slight chance of severe thunderstorms on Saturday southeast of a line from Gurnee in Lake County to New Milford (just south of Rockford), to Savanna on the Mississippi River.  If this forecast verifies, that will put Rockford just to the north of the severe activity which could include damaging wind and large hail.  The timing for severe thundestorms will be from late morning through the early afternoon.  By evening the cool front will settle southward nearly to the St. Louis, Missouri area.  There could be some straggling precipitaion during the early evening to the south of Rockford.  The night will be partly cloudy and cooler with a low in the low 60's.  Sunday looks like it will be a very nice day with drier air in place,  mostly sunny skies, and afternoon temperatures reaching the low 80's.

Summer-like heat returns; Continues through the middle of June?

After breaking even in the temperature department for the month of May, June is already off to a warm start.  With the exception of today, the rest of this week and next will feature temperatures in the 80s and possibly the 90s!  The reason:  a ridge of high pressure that currently sits to our west in the Plains, temperatures in the Dakotas are going to reach close to 90° today, will shift east across the Great Lakes by Friday.  This will allow a warm and humid southerly breeze tomorrow pushing highs close to 90°, if not higher. 

This ridge, however, doesn't look like it's going to break down anytime soon.  A cold front will pass early on Saturday which will help to flatten it some through this weekend.  The center of the ridge (or high pressure) will then shift west into the middle of the U.S and looks like it will stay at least through the middle of June.  I was looking at some of the extended models and really don't see any significant cool down coming.  The Stateline will be on the northern edge of the hot air with the main storm track just to our north.  This will give us periodic chances of thunderstorms until the ridge breaks or lifts further to the north.

Storms weakening some this morning

Thunderstorms formed this morning out in Iowa on the nose of the low level jet (stronger winds in the lower level of the atmosphere that help transport moisture).  The showers have held their own as they continue to push closer to the Mississippi River, however, I've been noticing the lightning strikes with these storms have been decreasing which is an indication that the line is weakening some.  Also, our dew points are currently in the 40s where in Iowa dew points are in the 50s.  As these showers move away from their moisture supply, they will probably weaken even further, although some showers could hold together long enough to move west of the Rockford area later this morning but I wouldn't expect them to stay together much longer than that. 

The cluster of storms that are south of the Quad Cities will stay down there closer to the warm front.  These have been producing some very heavy rainfall in southeast Iowa.

Amazing Video from Springfield, MA Tornado

Tornadoes were reported yesterday in an area that typically doesn't see much severe weather. This tornado was caught on camera byCBS3 in Springfield, MA as it moved over the river and then continued on to cars stopped on bridges. Unfortunately it did move through during rush hour in the downtown area and there have been some fatalities reported.

California Tornadoes

A tornado was reported this evening 5 miles north-northeast of Yuba City, CA at 6:45pm Pacific Time. The tornado was only an EF0, the weakest on the scale of tornado strength. This is still a significant event for northern California, and comes in addition to seven other tornadoes reported there this spring:

 - MAY 25, 2011: ONE EF2 TORNADO NORTH OF OROVILLE IN BUTTE COUNTY
- MAY 25, 2011:  TWO EF1 TORNADOES IN GLENN AND BUTTE COUNTIES
- APRIL 7, 2011:  EF0 TORNADO AT ROCKVILLE IN SOLANO COUNTY
- MARCH 23, 2011:  EF0 TORNADO AT WILLIAMS IN COLUSA COUNTY
- MARCH 21, 2011:  EF0 TORNADO AT MAXWELL IN COLUSA COUNTY
- FEBRUARY 25, 2011:  EF0 TORNADO AT MATHER IN SACRAMENTO COUNTY
- NOVEMBER 23, 2010: EF1 TORNADO NEAR LATROBE IN EL DORADO COUNTY

Tornadoes in Massachusetts

If I'm counting correctly, I see nine tornado reports here in the state of Massachusetts. Granted, some of these could be more than one report of the same tornado. Still, this type of weather isn't typically thought of in the northeast US. A tornado watch remains in effect for much of the area through 11pm EDT. Here's a list of reports so far:

BOX Wed Jun 1 12:15:00 CDT 2011 Hillsborough Hudson NH HAIL 0.75 co-op observer 42.76


BOX Wed Jun 1 12:25:00 CDT 2011 Middlesex Maynard MA HAIL 0.75 trained spotter 42.43

BOX Wed Jun 1 13:00:00 CDT 2011 Middlesex North Reading MA HAIL 1 ham radio 42.58

BOX Wed Jun 1 13:00:00 CDT 2011 Middlesex North Reading MA HAIL 1 ham radio 42.58

BOX Wed Jun 1 13:05:00 CDT 2011 Essex Georgetown MA HAIL 0.75 amateur radio 42.73

BOX Wed Jun 1 13:10:00 CDT 2011 Providence Pawtucket RI HAIL 0.75 public 41.87

BOX Wed Jun 1 13:25:00 CDT 2011 Bristol Freetown MA HAIL 0.75 ham radio 41.82

BOX Wed Jun 1 15:57:00 CDT 2011 Bristol Freetown MA HAIL 0.75 ham radio 99.99

BOX Wed Jun 1 19:07:00 CDT 2011 Cheshire Swanzey NH HAIL 0.75 amateur radio 42.87

BOX Wed Jun 1 19:07:00 CDT 2011 Cheshire Swanzey NH HAIL 0.75 ham radio 42.87

BOX Wed Jun 1 19:12:00 CDT 2011 Cheshire Keene NH HAIL 0.75 amateur radio 42.93

BOX Wed Jun 1 19:12:00 CDT 2011 Cheshire Keene NH HAIL 0.75 ham radio 42.93

BOX Wed Jun 1 19:14:00 CDT 2011 Cheshire Keene NH HAIL 1 amateur radio 42.93

BOX Wed Jun 1 19:14:00 CDT 2011 Cheshire Keene NH HAIL 1 ham radio 42.93

BOX Wed Jun 1 19:16:00 CDT 2011 Cheshire Keene NH HAIL 1.75 trained spotter 42.95

BOX Wed Jun 1 19:16:00 CDT 2011 Cheshire Keene NH HAIL 1.5 trained spotter 42.95

BOX Wed Jun 1 19:17:00 CDT 2011 Cheshire Keene NH HAIL 0.75 trained spotter 42.95

BOX Wed Jun 1 19:20:00 CDT 2011 Cheshire Keene NH HAIL 1 none 42.93

BOX Wed Jun 1 19:21:00 CDT 2011 Cheshire Keene NH HAIL 1.5 amateur radio 42.93

BOX Wed Jun 1 19:21:00 CDT 2011 Cheshire Keene NH HAIL 1.5 ham radio 42.93

BOX Wed Jun 1 19:23:00 CDT 2011 Franklin Deerfield MA TSTM WND DMG 0 amateur radio 42.55

BOX Wed Jun 1 19:26:00 CDT 2011 Cheshire Keene NH HAIL 1.75 law enforcement 42.95

BOX Wed Jun 1 19:32:00 CDT 2011 Hampshire Huntington MA HAIL 1 amateur radio 42.24

BOX Wed Jun 1 19:32:00 CDT 2011 Hampden Chesterfield MA HAIL 1 ham radio 99.99

BOX Wed Jun 1 19:42:00 CDT 2011 Hampshire Plainfield MA HAIL 0.75 trained spotter 42.52

BOX Wed Jun 1 19:45:00 CDT 2011 Hampshire Northampton MA HAIL 1.25 trained spotter 42.33

BOX Wed Jun 1 19:46:00 CDT 2011 Hampshire Northampton MA HAIL 1.25 ham radio 42.33

BOX Wed Jun 1 19:50:00 CDT 2011 Hampshire Northampton MA HAIL 1.75 fire dept/rescue 42.33

BOX Wed Jun 1 19:58:00 CDT 2011 Hampshire Northampton MA TSTM WND DMG 0 trained spotter 42.33

BOX Wed Jun 1 20:10:00 CDT 2011 Hampshire Belchertown MA HAIL 1.75 amateur radio 42.28

BOX Wed Jun 1 20:23:00 CDT 2011 Hampden 2 Ene Westfield MA FUNNEL CLOUD 0 asos 42.15

BOX Wed Jun 1 20:28:00 CDT 2011 Hampden Springfield MA HAIL 0.88 trained spotter 42.12

BOX Wed Jun 1 20:30:00 CDT 2011 Hampden Westfield MA TORNADO 0 law enforcement 42.14

BOX Wed Jun 1 20:32:00 CDT 2011 Hampden Springfield MA TORNADO 0 amateur radio 42.12

BOX Wed Jun 1 21:22:00 CDT 2011 Worcester Sturbridge MA TORNADO 0 law enforcement 42.1

BOX Wed Jun 1 21:24:00 CDT 2011 Worcester Sturbridge MA TORNADO 0 law enforcement 42.1

BOX Wed Jun 1 21:24:00 CDT 2011 Worcester Sturbridge MA TORNADO 0 law enforcement 42.1

BOX Wed Jun 1 21:25:00 CDT 2011 Tolland Mansfield Center CT HAIL 1 broadcast media 41.77

BOX Wed Jun 1 21:57:00 CDT 2011 Worcester Spencer MA NON-TSTM WND GST 60 cocorahs 42.24

BOX Wed Jun 1 21:57:00 CDT 2011 Worcester Spencer MA HAIL 0.88 cocorahs 42.24

BOX Wed Jun 1 22:07:00 CDT 2011 Hampden Westfield MA TORNADO 0 utility company 42.14

BOX Wed Jun 1 22:07:00 CDT 2011 Hampden Westfield MA TORNADO 0 utility company 42.14

BOX Wed Jun 1 22:20:00 CDT 2011 Hampden Springfield MA TORNADO 0 law enforcement 42.12

BOX Wed Jun 1 22:30:00 CDT 2011 Hampden Chicopee MA HAIL 0.75 trained spotter 42.15

BOX Wed Jun 1 23:25:00 CDT 2011 Worcester Sturbridge MA TORNADO 0 amateur radio 42.1

BOX Wed Jun 1 23:40:00 CDT 2011 Worcester Gardner MA HAIL 1.75 amateur radio 42.58

Hurricane Season Begins Today

It's the first of June and the start of the 2011 Atlantic Hurricane Season.  Earlier forecasts indicated that this year could be above average as far as tropical systems and hurricanes, and it appears as if we're already up and running.  A cluster of thunderstorms continue to move west/southwest off the Florida coast this morning and are currently being monitored for any further development before reaching land later today.  The current environment is really not favorable for any strengthening, but the National Hurricane Center is giving it a 30% chance of developing into a tropical cyclone - so not too significant.