A Wild Week Coming Up For The Stateline

Sunday was another above average day for the Stateline.  The high temperature was 40 degrees when the average high should be 29 degrees, and the low early this morning was 19 degrees when the  average low should be 14 degrees.  During the last 39 days since the 1st of December only 5 days have averaged below normal.  The above average trend will continue through Wednesday January 11th.  Mild Pacific high pressure will dominate with temperatures reaching about 47 degrees on Monday, and top out around 52 degrees with sunshine on Tuesday.  A strong cold front will move across the area on Wednesday afternoon.  Wednesday will be a transition day to colder, but temperatures will reach the middle 40's before the colder air arrives.  There could be some snow showers Wednesday night and Thursday along with winds gusting to 40 mph or so.  On Thursday the high temperature will only be in the middle 20's, and on Thursday night it will drop down to about 12 degrees.  A trough of low pressure will swing across the area on Friday morning, and there could be some snow showers of flurries in the morning.  Friday will be cold and breezy with a north wind 15-25 mph with an afternoon high in the low 20's.  There will be a small moderation in temperatures over the weekend.

More Mild Weather Through Mid Week

Our mild weather pattern continues. After reaching 57 degrees on Friday the temperature topped out at 43 degrees on Saturday afternoon. The average high for this time of year is 29 degrees. Sunday will be just a tad cooler, but it will still be around 40 degrees in the afternoon. A surge of warmer weather will move into the mid west from the the plains states on Monday and Tuesday pushing temperatures even higher. Monday will top out in the upper 40's, and Tuesday will reach unseasonably mild levels in the low 50's. A cold front will move through on Wednesday dropping temperatures below normal on Thursday and Friday, before recovering back into the middle 30's on Saturday.. There is not much of a chance of any significant precipitation this week, although there could be a little light snow on Wednesday night and Thursday.

Unseasonably Warm Today

The mercury continued to soar today across the Stateline. After hitting 50 degrees yesterday, Rockford enjoyed a high of 57 today. Although that missed our record high of 60 set back in 2008, it is still 28 degrees above average and represents a day that we would more typically see in early April. (Our average high on April 6th is 57 degrees.)

Here are some high temperatures from across the Stateline area this afternoon. The urban heat island of Rockford undoubtedly helped us reach 57 degrees, as smaller communities were in the lower to mid-50s.

January warmth to be followed by chills at the end of next week

Numerous record highs were broken Thursday afternoon from the Plains to the Midwest.  Officially in Rockford we reached 50°, just shy of the record which was 54° set all the way back in 1909.

The mild January weather will continue into early next but then the temperature roller coaster will once again dip down following a pretty strong cold front.  A cut-off low pressure system will develop this weekend in the southwest and remain in the south before moving into the Ohio River Valley late next week.  At the same time a strong cold front will move through the northern Plains and into the Great Lakes late Wednesday night.  This will send temperatures tumbling Thursday with highs possibly only reaching the middle 20s during the afternoon.  The low pressure system will likely keep the bulk of moisture to our south, however, if we can get some of that wrapped into the cold front we may have a few rain/snow showers to go with the cold and wind late Wednesday and Thursday.

Snow Drought

Not only are we experiencing a snow drought in the Stateline, the white stuff is failing to appear (or not appearing in its normal abundance) across most of the U.S. this winter season. As of yesterday, only 22% of the country had measurable snow cover. This is the smallest percentage we've seen since 2004. Unless the second part of the winter reveals a major change to colder, snowier weather, a multitude of homes, farms, and industries across the country will be impacted adversely. For example, 1/3 of California's water supply comes from mountain snowmelt in the spring and summer months. And in the northern Plains, wheat farmers depend on snowcover to insulate their crop from harsh, Arctic outbreaks that could still creep across the country later this month. For more on this, here's an article from accuweather.com.

Near record warmth? It will be close for some!

Our record high for today will likely stay in place but for others it's in serious jeopardy. 

A major warm up will be found across the Plains today where temperatures will reach the middle 60s all the way into North Dakota.  That's a good 30° above their average highs.  That's impressive considering the low sun angle we have this time of year!  Record highs may either be tied or broken for some in Montana, North and South Dakota and even Minneapolis, MN.  That air mass will modify some as it transitions east later today and tomorrow and while we likely won't see the 60s here, I bet they'll be just off to our southwest.

Never has there been a snow-less winter, but it's been close

We've only officially received a whopping 1.7" of snow so far this winter season and with mild temperatures in the forecast for the next several days this snow drought will continue.  This has caused a few people to wonder if there's ever been a 'snow-less' winter.  Looking back, we've never had a winter season where no snow has fallen.  However, as little as 1.3" fell all the way back during the 1906-1907 season.  Some of you may even remember 2002-2003 where we only received 8.0".

This mild winter comes on the heels of some pretty cold and snowy winters.  In fact, the last four of them have been major snow producers.  On average our winter months (December, January, February) should produce 29" of snow.  Will we make it to 29"...we would need some pretty hefty systems to bring a lot of snow and at least in the near term it doesn't appear that we have any in the works.

We're not the only ones who are suffering from a snow drought.  Roughly only 20% of the U.S. is covered with snow.  It looks like another cold front will come through late next week with an area of low pressure to our south.  It has yet to be seen if that low makes it far enough north and if it does how much precipitation will fall as rain and how much will fall as snow.  If this pattern holds this season may end up going down in the top ten list of the least snowiest winters.