Special Weather Statement Regarding Thursday's Weather

From the Chicago NWS:

AFTER ANOTHER UNSEASONABLY MILD DAY ON WEDNESDAY...AN ARCTIC FRONT WILL PUSH THROUGH THE REGION WEDNESDAY NIGHT AND BRING AN ABRUPT END TO THE MILD AND DRY WEATHER.


PRECIPITATION WILL START WEDNESDAY NIGHT ACROSS NORTHWEST AND NORTH CENTRAL ILLINOIS AND SPREAD EAST OVERNIGHT...POSSIBLY STARTING AS A RAIN SNOW MIX BEFORE TRANSITIONING OVER TO ALL SNOW AS TEMPERATURES FALL BELOW FREEZING.

BY THURSDAY MORNING...TEMPERATURES WILL BE FALLING THROUGH THE 20S...ALONG WITH INCREASING NORTHWEST WINDS. THE COMBINATION OF FALLING SNOW AND WINDS GUSTING UP TO 30 MILES PER HOUR WILL LIKELY LEAD TO A HAZARDOUS MORNING COMMUTE. OCCASIONALLY MODERATE TO HEAVY SNOW...IN TANDEM WITH THE GUSTY WINDS...MAY REDUCE VISIBILITIES TO A HALF MILE OR LESS AT TIMES. THE AREA OF SNOW WILL GRADUALLY SHIFT EAST THROUGH THURSDAY EVENING...BUT THE THURSDAY EVENING COMMUTE WILL LIKELY BE SIGNIFICANTLY IMPACTED AS WELL. CURRENT FORECAST SNOWFALL AMOUNTS ARE FOR A WIDESPREAD GREATER THAN 2 INCH SNOWFALL...WITH THE HIGHEST AMOUNTS EXPECTED OVER FAR NORTHEAST ILLINOIS...WHERE UP TO 5 INCHES MAY ACCUMULATE.


OVERNIGHT LOWS PLUMMETING TO BETWEEN 10 AND 15 DEGREES ON THURSDAY NIGHT AND WESTERLY WINDS CONTINUING TO GUST TO 25 TO 30 MPH WILL RESULT IN MINIMUM WIND CHILL VALUES OF ROUGHLY 0 TO 5 BELOW ZERO.


FURTHER UPDATES AND REFINEMENTS TO THE FORECAST ARE LIKELY...SO PERSONS PLANNING TRAVEL ACROSS THE REGION THURSDAY SHOULD CLOSELY MONITOR LATER FORECASTS AND STATEMENTS.

Join Chief Meteorologist Ty Shesky tonight for the latest updates on Thursday's storm

Tracking the next system: Could this be the one for snow?

An interesting change occurred with Monday evening's model runs in regards to the next weather system forecast for the end of this week.  The cold front is still forecast to move through Wednesday night and will be just to our east as the sun rises Thursday morning.  The one thing that has changed is the track the of the upper level low.  Earlier this week the upper level low was to our north essentially keeping the bulk of precipitation through the Upper Midwest because that's where the main forcing, or uplift, with this storm was going to be.  When I was putting the forecast together this morning, the general upper level storm track had shifted south and was crossing more over Iowa and Illinois while a deepening low pressure system was forecast to develop in Michigan.  This type of track would favor a fair amount of lift within our atmosphere to generate advisory level snow.  Now, before you go digging out the snow blowers or shovels there are a couple important factors we need to look at for the Wednesday night/Thursday morning time frame.

The current low in the south will keep a lot of the gulf moisture from making much progress northward, however, it will be pulling in a little moisture from the Pacific.  Secondly, the main storm itself is now just starting to show in the northwest so as expected, the weather models have been doing some flip-flopping.  If this trend continues for today and Wednesday morning then you'll want to find your snow shovels.  On the other hand, the amount of lift generated in the upper levels will be able to squeeze out whatever moisture we do have late Wednesday and into Thursday.  Another important factor to look at in determining if/how much snow will fall is the atmospheric profile along with snow to liquid ratios.  Snow to liquid ratios will probably be high due to the lack of moisture so this would produce more of a fluffy snow which would accumulate more than a heavier, wet snow.  Also, the dendritic zone (layer in the atmosphere where temperatures are roughly -12°C to -18°C for a certain distance) may be large enough to efficiently produce snow.  When you typically have a deep dendritic zone your totals can be higher. 

We'll continue with updates here, facebook and twitter so be sure to keep checking back.  Should a snowfall forecast be needed the First Warn Weather Team will update it on the blog Wednesday.  This is to ensure we have the most up-to-date information for you.

Climate tells us we should be at our coldest by this time

It's hard to believe that this should be the coldest time in winter when we're talking temperatures that will be in the low 50s this afternoon.  Climatologically high temperatures should be right around 29° with a rise in averages closer to the end of the month.  Not only will we be in the low 50s but we'll be just a short distance from the record for this afternoon which is 55° set back in 1975.  Winds will generally stay light today so any heating we receive will come mainly from the sun rather than some type of warm air advection.  Either way it's going to be nice today!  Even Wednesday highs will be close to record territory; the record for Wednesday is 50° set back in 1980.

A strong cold front coming in Wednesday night will put an end to this April weather in January.  Temperatures will fall below average Thursday and Friday and possibly remain in the upper 20s through the weekend...especially if we get any snow on Thursday.

Record-Breaking Snow in West Texas

As Meteorologist Candice King said in a previous post, heavy snow is impacting portions of central and western Texas tonight as a strong upper-level low continues to spin over the area. So far, Midland has received a record snowfall for the date of 10.4"! (The old record was 5.9" set back in 1955.) The seasonal record snowfall for Midland has also been smashed; 19.3" of snow has fallen so far this winter. The old seasonal record was 13.9" set back in 1946-47.

A Winter Storm Warning remains in-effect for much of western Texas. Here's more from the National Weather Service:

URGENT - WINTER WEATHER MESSAGE

NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MIDLAND/ODESSA TX
655 PM CST MON JAN 9 2012

...WINTER STORM WARNING REMAINS IN EFFECT UNTIL MIDNIGHT CST
/11 PM MST/ TONIGHT...

A STRONG UPPER LEVEL STORM SYSTEM OVER THE STOCKTON PLATEAU WILL CONTINUETO BRING PERIODS OF HEAVY SNOW TO PORTIONS OF SOUTHEAST NEW MEXICO AND WEST TEXAS. SO FAR...SNOWFALL RATES OF 1 TO 2 INCHES PER HOUR HAVE BEEN MEASURED IN THE HEAVIER SNOW BANDS. REPORTS AS HIGH AS 4 TO 8 INCHES HAVE RECEIVED IN WINK...ANDREWS... GREENWOOD... HOBBS...TARZAN...MIDLAND...ANDFORT STOCKTON. THE UPPER STORM SYSTEM REMAINS IN A FAVORABLE LOCATION FOR ADDITIONAL SIGNIFICANT AMOUNTS INTO THE EVENING ESPECIALLY ACROSS THE PERMIAN BASIN...AND MAINLY NORTH OF INTERSTATE 20. LOCAL STORM TOTAL SNOWFALL AMOUNTS OF 8 TO 10 INCHES WILL BE POSSIBLE IN A FEW LOCATIONS BY MIDNIGHT TUESDAY MORNING. SNOW WILL CONTINUE AFTER MIDNIGHT IN THE EASTERN PERMIAN BASIN AND WESTERN LOW ROLLING PLAINS.

NORTHERN LEA COUNTY-CENTRAL LEA COUNTY-SOUTHERN LEA COUNTY-GAINES-
DAWSON-BORDEN-SCURRY-ANDREWS-MARTIN-HOWARD-MITCHELL-LOVING-
WINKLER-ECTOR-MIDLAND-GLASSCOCK-WARD-CRANE-UPTON-REAGAN-PECOS-

INCLUDING THE CITIES OF...TATUM...HOBBS...LOVINGTON...EUNICE...
JAL...SEMINOLE...LAMESA...GAIL...SNYDER...ANDREWS...STANTON...
BIG SPRING...COLORADO CITY...MENTONE...RED BLUFF LAKE...KERMIT...
ODESSA...MIDLAND...GARDEN CITY...MONAHANS...CRANE...MCCAMEY...
RANKIN...BIG LAKE...FORT STOCKTON
655 PM CST MON JAN 9 2012 /555 PM MST MON JAN 9 2012/

...WINTER STORM WARNING REMAINS IN EFFECT UNTIL MIDNIGHT CST
/11 PM MST/ TONIGHT...

* EVENT...MODERATE TO HEAVY SNOW.

* TIMING...UNTIL MIDNIGHT CST /11 PM MST/ TONIGHT.

* IMPACTS...ROADWAYS MAY BECOME SNOW PACKED. VISIBILITIES WILL BE
REDUCED IN HEAVY SNOW. THE COMBINATION OF DROUGHT WEAKENED
TREES...SNOW LOADING ON TREE LIMBS...AND NORTHEAST WINDS NEAR 20
MPH WILL INCREASE THE POTENTIAL FOR BROKEN TREE LIMBS AND
THEREFORE POWER OUTAGES.

* SNOW ACCUMULATIONS...4 TO 8 INCHES WITH LOCAL HIGHER AMOUNTS NEARING
10 INCHES POSSIBLE.

PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS...

A WINTER STORM WARNING FOR HEAVY SNOW MEANS SEVERE WINTER WEATHER
CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED. SIGNIFICANT AMOUNTS OF SNOW ARE FORECAST
THAT WILL MAKE TRAVEL DANGEROUS. ONLY TRAVEL IN AN EMERGENCY. IF
YOU MUST TRAVEL...KEEP AN EXTRA FLASHLIGHT... FOOD...AND WATER IN
YOUR VEHICLE IN CASE OF AN EMERGENCY.

Storms moving through Houston, TX

Severe weather has erupted early this morning across sections of Texas producing Tornado Warnings, including for the city Houston.  Here is LIVE coverage from KTRK-TV ABC13

http://abclocal.go.com/ktrk/livenow?id=8495867

Storms in the South; Cold moves across the North

A cut-off low pressure system in southwest early this morning has been producing snow in west Texas and strong to severe storms along the Gulf.  Winter Storm Warnings and Winter Weather Advisories have been issued for western sections of Texas as cold air funnels in behind the low producing potential snowfall rates of 1"-2" per hour, especially if any thundersnow occurs.

Warm and moist air continues to get drawn into the gulf states with heavy rain and severe thunderstorms occurring.  In fact, there is a Tornado Warning for Fort Bend and Harris County, including the city of Houston.  Severe weather will continue in the deep south today and tomorrow as the low moves east before heading into the Ohio River Valley by the middle of this week.  A cold front moving in from the northwest late Wednesday night will swing through the Great Lakes pulling down some very cold air with it but also help keep the low to our south and east.  This low will likely keep the bulk of moisture to our south but with such a strong front coming through and a good amount of forcing in the upper levels it's hard not to say that we'll at least get a few light snow showers Wednesday night and Thursday.  Accumulations won't be much, but some may be able to pick up an inch or so of snow by Thursday night.  

Old man winter returns

This winter has been anything but your typical winter in terms of cold and snow.  In fact, there have been only a handful of days that have actually been below average since December 1st.  The mild weather this weekend added to the number of above average days, but that will soon be changing later this week.  Today, tomorrow and Wednesday temperatures will be in the middle/upper 40s and even possibly back into the low 50s before a strong cold front moves in late Wednesday night.  This will bring a true 'January feel' back into the Midwest with highs only expected to be in the lower 20s Thursday and Friday.  Combine that with a gusty northwest and it will be a big reality check for all.  Just think if we did have any snow on the ground this cold snap would likely feature highs in the teens rather than the low 20s.

The cold spells we've had this winter have been fairly short-lived ones.  A couple days below average but then it warms right back up.  This pattern change looks to remain in place for possibly the next week or so.  The 8-14 Day Outlook from the Climate Prediction Center does continue with the below average weather, although it will have modified some if we don't get any good snow, through the middle of the month.  It will be interesting to see if we do get any big snow from this if this type of pattern sticks around.