Thursday, January 12, 2012

Storm Reports

Visibility is down to a mile or less in many spots

(12:33:47 PM) nwsbot: LOT: Rockford [Winnebago Co, IL] broadcast media reports SNOW of E3.0 INCH at 12:15 PM CST -- north side

(12:02:26 PM) nwsbot: LOT: Rockford Airport [Winnebago Co, IL] official nws obs reports SNOW of M1.8 INCH at 11:55 AM CST -- 6 hour report


(12:04:49 PM) nwsbot: LOT: 4 Nw Rockford [Winnebago Co, IL] co-op observer reports SNOW of M2.0 INCH at 11:55 AM CST -- water eq 0.16
(11:34:56 AM) nwsbot: MKX: 9 Wnw Beloit [Rock Co, WI] trained spotter reports SNOW of M2.0 INCH at 11:00 AM CST --


(11:35:29 AM) nwsbot: LOT: Poplar Grove [Boone Co, IL] public reports SNOW of E2.0 INCH at 11:31 AM CST -- relayed by broadcast media.

(11:02:23 AM) nwsbot: MKX: Monroe [Green Co, WI] law enforcement reports SNOW of E1.5 INCH at 10:00 AM CST -- snow blowing a little bit. half a dozen accidents reported.


(11:02:23 AM) nwsbot: MKX: Janesville [Rock Co, WI] law enforcement reports SNOW of E1.5 INCH at 10:00 AM CST -- one to two inches.

(10:38:41 AM) nwsbot: DVN: 4 Ese Galena [Jo Daviess Co, IL] trained spotter reports SNOW of M3.0 INCH at 10:20 AM CST -- so far


(10:01:16 AM) nwsbot: DVN: 2 Ne Fulton [Whiteside Co, IL] trained spotter reports SNOW of E2.2 INCH at 09:03 AM CST -- total so far

(9:44:47 AM) nwsbot: MKX: 9 Wnw Beloit [Rock Co, WI] trained spotter reports SNOW of M1.0 INCH at 09:25 AM CST -- one inch of new snowfall over the past three hours.

(9:33:14 AM) nwsbot: DVN: 2 Nw Lena [Stephenson Co, IL] trained spotter reports SNOW of M1.3 INCH at 09:30 AM CST -- still snowing

(9:32:45 AM) nwsbot: DVN: 5 Sse Council Hill [Jo Daviess Co, IL] trained spotter reports SNOW of M1.8 INCH at 09:29 AM CST -- still snowing
(9:29:53 AM) nwsbot: LOT: Rockford [Winnebago Co, IL] broadcast media reports SNOW of E0.5 INCH at 09:16 AM CST -- reported at wtvo.

(9:23:31 AM) nwsbot: DVN: 6 Sse Elmoville [Carroll Co, IL] trained spotter reports SNOW of M1.3 INCH at 09:20 AM CST -- total so far 


(9:23:57 AM) nwsbot: DVN: 4 Wsw Loran [Jo Daviess Co, IL] trained spotter reports SNOW of E1.3 INCH at 08:47 AM CST -- storm total so far.

(9:13:16 AM) nwsbot: DVN: 2 Wnw Freeport [Stephenson Co, IL] trained spotter reports SNOW of M0.6 INCH at 09:09 AM CST -- still snowing



(9:06:34 AM) nwsbot: DVN: 2 Ne Fulton [Whiteside Co, IL] trained spotter reports HEAVY SNOW of M2.2 INCH at 09:03 AM CST -- total so far

Winter Weather Update

8:30am Update: Remember to take it easy out there this morning.  Moderate snow continues to fall and there have been some reports of slick roadways.  Visibility continues to drop with many locations reporting a mile or less. 

Here are the links for the road conditions in Wisconsin and Illinois:

Illinois roadway conditions
Wisconsin road conditions










(7:41:34 AM) nwsbot: DVN: 3 Se Galena [Jo Daviess Co, IL] co-op observer reports SNOW of M1.0 INCH at 07:00 AM CST -- 24-hr total.



A Winter Weather Advisory continues for all of southern Wisconsin and northern Illinois through early Friday.  Snow is already beginning to fall across the Stateline and will continue to move east and likely intensify some as it does.  Totals so far from where the snow has fallen further west in Iowa range anywhere between 1"-3".  Winds are starting to increase as the cold air comes in full force with the snow.  The colder and drier nature of the snow will likely aid in a few higher totals by later this evening. 

The snow will begin to increase in intensity and coverage throughout the morning and into the afternoon.  The upper level low will be almost right overhead around noon and that's when we could see some of the more moderate snow showers.  As the snow falls and the winds begin to pick up blowing and drifting will become a concern for your evening commute.  Still looking at totals ranging between 3"-6", however, I wouldn't be surprised if there are a few totals nearing 7" or 8".

Remember to take it easy out there this morning and especially later this afternoon and evening.  Roads may begin to slicken up as the temperature drops. 

Don't forget we've got our LIVE: Weather Chat right below!  We'll continue to provide updates here, on the chat, facebook as well as twitter!

Wednesday, January 11, 2012

Stateline Snow Forecast Map

Here's an updated map showing how much snow we think will fall across the Stateline viewing area. Most of us -- including Rockford, Freeport, Rochelle, Rockton, Beloit, DeKalb, and Belvidere -- can expect between 4 and 7" of snow Thursday and Thursday night. A few of us -- like Harvard residents -- could see some lake-enhanced snow totals of 7" or more! If you live in Dixon or to the southwest of there, we're thinking along the lines of 2-4".

It appears that the snow will begin to fall in Freeport at about 8am or so, and work its way eastward. It'll reach Rockford and Dixon by 9am, and DeKalb and Harvard at about 9:30 or 10.

Although at this point it looks like the morning commute will not be impacted by the snow, don't be fooled! Conditions will rapidly go downhill with snow and blowing snow. Therefore, allow extra time getting home from work, and you may want to plan on taking your lunch break at the office.

Winter weather just around the corner

A Winter Weather Advisory has been issued for all of the WTVO viewing area beginning early Thursday morning and lasting through early Friday morning.  This replaces the previous Winter Storm Watch due to the fact that the snow will be falling throughout the day Thursday rather than receiving it in a short duration of time.  Either way travel will be tricky; especially during the afternoon.  Gusty north/northwest winds will cause blowing and drifting during the day. 

Join Chief Meteorologist Ty Shesky this evening at 5pm, 6pm and 10pm for the latest updates and a more in-depth snowfall forecast.

Happy Warm Thoughts!

Instead of talking about snow, let's talk about the weather right now!  Have you been outside?  It's beautiful!  Temperatures have soared into the low to mid 50s ahead of that cold front in Iowa.  In fact, records have been broken including here in Rockford.  The record high for today was 50° set back in 1980.  As of 2pm we are currently sitting at 55°.  Thank you compressional heating!

Here are some 2pm temperatures:
Rockford: 55°
Freeport:  52°
Rochelle:  55°
DeKalb:   55°
Savanna:  51°
Janesville: 54°
Monroe:  52°

Update On Winter Weather Expected

Winter Weather Advisory in effect for Winnebago, Boone, Ogle, Lee, DeKalb and McHenry counties.  This replaces the Winter Storm Watch due to the fact this snow will be a prolonged event rather than receiving the snow in a short amount of time.  We'll likely see the surrounding areas follow later this afternoon.

NOON UPDATE:  Going over some of the morning model runs and the going forecast looks to be on track.  The latest NAM has trended a little higher in snow totals while the GFS has trended down some in totals.  As was mentioned in the earlier update, the system seems to be slowing some and is a bit stronger in the upper levels.  The slowing of the trough may delay the onset of snowfall to our west late tonight/early Thursday morning.  The fact that the upper level low will be slower and likely strengthening over northern Illinois may up totals in some spots but will likely pose more of a threat during the afternoon and evening rather than during the early morning.  For now I'm keeping the 3"-6" range across north-central Illinois, but it may be extended further west to include all of northwest Illinois.


Snow to liquid ratios will still be a concern because they'll likely be changing throughout the duration of this storm.  They still appear to remain on the high side which will create a fluffy snow.  Remember...fluffy snow = greater accumulation.  There could still be some locations that exceed six inches going into Thursday night.  Winds continue to be another concern as the snow will blow around as it falls reducing visibility at times.  Winter Storm Watches continue from Thursday going into early Friday morning.  The reason why a Winter Storm Watch has been issued is not solely on snow totals.  It was a combination of snow, wind and the cold to follow.  It's possible that with the later updates from the NWS they may end up calling this a 'high end' Advisory event or even a low end 'Warning' event.  This will be determined with the late afternoon updates.



A Winter Storm Watch has been issued for southern Wisconsin and northern Illinois beginning early Thursday morning and lasting through early Friday

Hard to believe that the weather will go from spring-like back to winter in just a short 24 hours.

A strong cold front will move through later this afternoon bringing with it cloud cover and a northwest wind.  The front itself is nearing Des Moines, IA this morning but the snow and gusty winds are behind the front.  The reason:  a trough of low pressure is currently moving through the Upper Plains.  That's why for today all we're really expecting are the clouds and wind shift.  Late tonight and Thursday, however, will be a different story. 

Temperatures will gradually fall behind the front later this afternoon and then likely take a dive into the 20s after midnight.  The system has slowed a little from previous forecasts so I would anticipate a little light snow to move in west/northwest of us after midnight and have more of an impact on southern Wisconsin and northern Illinois perhaps by daybreak Thursday.  With the slower upper level low this brings a chance for an all day, light to moderate snow event and with the light, fluffy nature totals may begin to add up.

Total precipitation amounts look to range anywhere between about 0.25" up to 0.50" at most.  If we were using a 10:1 snow to liquid ratio that would yield about 2.5" to 5.0" (roughly) of snowfall.  Temperatures will be cooling tonight and Thursday with the cold air pouring in behind the front so with the cooler and drier air mass in place the snow to liquid ratios will likely be higher.  Say somewhere between 12:1 and 14:1.  With that in mind there could be some totals that fluff up to 6" or higher.  Gusty northwest winds Thursday afternoon may help to break apart some of the flakes and this may help keep those snow to liquid ratios from getting too out of control.

Average snowfall totals from our weather models this morning were giving about four inches across northern Illinois.  Another factor to consider with the amount of snow we'll receive is that the dendritic zone (region in the atmosphere where temperatures range roughly from -12°C to -18°C which can efficiently produce snow) may be deep enough to keep snow production going.

Wind will also be a factor Thursday as a surface low strengthens while it moves into Michigan.  Wind gusts could get as high as 35 mph (maybe 40 mph at most) during the day and this will cause reduced visibility when out traveling. 

The snowfall forecast is a 'preliminary' forecast as we'll continue to do some fine-tuning with totals later today and tonight.  Remember too, any deviation of the low could mean either higher or lower snowfall totals for the area.  We'll continue to track this system as it moves through the Midwest today and continue to provide updates right here on the blog as well as facebook and twitter.

First Winter Storm Watch of the Season

5am Update:  Winter Storm Watch issued for the entire viewing area for Thursday

A Winter Storm Watch has been issued for Winnebago, Boone, Ogle, Lee, DeKalb and McHenry counties for Thursday morning through late Thursday night.

More info to come soon!