A Warm Up is On the Way, But it Won't Last Long

Canadian high pressure provided the Stateline with the coldest weather so far this winter.  The high was only 18 degrees in Rockford this afternoon which was the coldest daytime high the Rockford airport has had since February 10th, 2011 when 17 degrees was reached.  High clouds associated with a warm front stretching from central Iowa northwest across western Minnesota into south central Canada. The front is moving eastward, and there has been little light snow and flurries associated with the front but that has run into some very dry air just to out west, and that activity has diminished.   There still  could be a few flurries before midnight.  It will be cold ovenight with a low around 6 degrees.  That low will likely occur before midnight, and after that temperatures will hold steady or slowly rise into daybreak. The front will be east of the area on Sunday, and it will be partly cloudy, breezy, and warmer with a high near 32 degrees.  The will will be southweserly from 10 to 20 mph with afternoon gusts to 26 mph.

Before and After

Jodi Heitkamp works in the Geography Department at NIU and sent in this picture of fellow staff and faculty before and after the snow.  Amazing...middle 50s one day to the low 20s and snow the next!

Thanks Jodi!

Just often has this late of a snowfall occurred?

Looking back through the climate data, it's been quite some time since we've experienced a snowfall this late in the season. 

This was put together from the Chicago NWS:

THE JANUARY 12TH CALENDAR DAY BROUGHT 4.5 INCHES OF SNOW OFFICIALLY AT ROCKFORD. THIS WAS THE FIRST EVENT WITH AT LEAST TWO INCHES OF SNOWFALL THIS SEASON. LOOKING BACK SINCE 1940..THE AVERAGE FIRST CALENDAR DAY WITH TWO INCHES OF SNOW IN ROCKFORD DURING A WINTER SEASON IS DECEMBER 7TH. IN THOSE PAST 71 YEARS...THERE HAVE ONLY BEEN THREE WINTERS TO SEE A FIRST TWO INCH PLUS SNOW IN A DAY LATER THAN THE 2011-2012 WINTER /RETURN FREQUENCY OF ONCE EVERY 24 YEARS. THIS LATE OF A FIRST TWO INCH SNOWFALL HAD NOT BEEN SEEN SINCE THE 2001-2002 WINTER...WHEN THE FIRST TWO INCH PLUS EVENT MATERIALIZED ON JANUARY 16TH 2002. THE LATEST SINCE 1940 WAS DURING THE 1980-1981 WINTER...WHEN THE FIRST TWO INCH PLUS EVENT DID NOT OCCUR UNTIL FEBRUARY 10 1981.

Early next week storm potential

We've just finished one storm and our eyes are already watching the potential next one.  A weak clipper system will move through Saturday providing a few snow showers during the afternoon, shouldn't be anything too significant.  A cold front will move in from the northwest Sunday night as an area of low pressure develops in the southern Plains.  Lows that develop in the southern Plains and lift northeast are ones to watch this time of year as they can sometimes be big snow producers.

There are two potential storms tracks that we'll be watching through the weekend.  The first, which is what the National Weather Service's GFS model shows, is a low that develops near the Oklahoma panhandle, moves just north of St. Louis Monday evening and then tracks just south of Chicago late Monday night.  This type of track would bring rain at the onset, depending on temperatures, a change over to a wintry mix or even freezing rain and then switch over to snow on the backside Tuesday.

The European model is depicting a track further to the south which would essentially bring us a greater threat for accumulating snow.  Now that we have snow on the ground a track further to the south may be more likely.  The difference in temperatures between snow covered ground and ground that is bare could provide that 'thermal gradient' needed for the low to move and develop over. 

Either way it does appear that a storm will impact us early next week.  Details will continue to be hammered out through the weekend.  Stay tuned!

The snow is done, but the cold continues

Averaging anywhere between 3"-6" of snowfall Thursday (some locations did pick up a little more than 6") flurries/light snow showers are all that's left.  Now that snow has ended the bitter cold temperatures have moved in. 

Temperatures this morning are starting off in the mid teens and wind chills in many spots have fallen below zero.  While the chills will rise above zero this afternoon, it's still going to be cold.  The clouds are pretty thick and with gusty northwest winds temperatures won't rise much past the upper teens.  Cloud cover will break a little after sunset tonight and that will allow temperatures to quickly fall into the evening.

A clipper system moving in from the northwest Saturday may provide a little more snow across the Midwest.  Totals will not be as high as they were Thursday, but a dusting to maybe half an inch could be possible.  Temperatures will remain in the 20s through the weekend.

Snow Diminishing

 After seeing 3-5" of snow in most parts of the Stateline during the daytime hours, the snow will become more scattered tonight. The back edge of the main area of snow is now working its way into western Winnebago county and will continue to move to the east. There are still several reports of flurries and light snow showers in eastern Iowa, however, so another inch or two is still possible by tomorrow morning.

Even though the worst of the storm appears to be over, there are still

plenty of hazards to look out for: Blowing and drifting of snow, secondary roads that remain unplowed and untreated, and wind chills as low as 5 to 10 degrees below zero after midnight. Please be careful if you must travel, and carry a winter survival kit with you.

Winter Storm Update Continues

(4:39:54 PM) nwsbot: LOT: 4 Nw Rockford [Winnebago Co, IL] co-op observer reports SNOW of M4.1 INCH at 04:00 PM CST —


(4:33:34 PM) nwsbot: LOT: Capron [Boone Co, IL] broadcast media reports SNOW of M4.4 INCH at 04:24 PM CST —

(4:34:16 PM) nwsbot: LOT: Loves Park [Winnebago Co, IL] broadcast media reports SNOW of M4.5 INCH at 04:20 PM CST —

(4:48:51 PM) nwsbot: LOT: Machesney Park [Winnebago Co, IL] broadcast media reports SNOW of M5.0 INCH at 04:40 PM CST —

(4:23:03 PM) nwsbot: LOT: Rockford Airport [Winnebago Co, IL] official nws obs reports SNOW of M2.8 INCH at 04:00 PM CST — storm total through 400 pm.

(3:52:06 PM) nwsbot: DVN: 4 Nnw Lanark [Carroll Co, IL] trained spotter reports SNOW of M2.6 INCH at 03:30 PM CST — storm total so far. ca43

(3:52:06 PM) nwsbot: DVN: W Apple River [Jo Daviess Co, IL] trained spotter reports SNOW of M4.5 INCH at 03:50 PM CST — storm total so far. jd5

((3:49:28 PM) nwsbot: LOT: Harvard [Mchenry Co, IL] cocorahs reports SNOW of E2.4 INCH at 03:30 PM CST — lighter snow. average snowfall 2.4 inches. drifts about 4 inches.

(3:36pm) LOT: Rockford [Winnebago Co, IL] public reports SNOW of M3.5 INCH at 03:15 PM CST — storm total so far.

(3:34pm) LOT: N Huntley [Mchenry Co, IL] cocorahs reports SNOW of E2.0 INCH at 03:25 PM CST — snowing since 845 am. moderate snow and windy currently.

(3:31pm) DVN: 6 Sse Elmoville [Carroll Co, IL] trained spotter reports SNOW of M4.0 INCH at 03:15 PM CST — storm total so far. ca102

(3:31pm) DVN: 2 Ne Fulton [Whiteside Co, IL] trained spotter reports SNOW of M4.1 INCH at 03:27 PM CST — storm total so far. wh31

(3:31pm) DVN: 5 Sse Council Hill [Jo Daviess Co, IL] trained spotter reports SNOW of M2.7 INCH at 03:22 PM CST — storm total so far. jd69

(3:17pm) DVN: 2 Wnw Freeport [Stephenson Co, IL] trained spotter reports SNOW of M3.1 INCH at 03:15 PM CST — snow so far.

(3:16pm) LOT: N Mendota [La Salle Co, IL] cocorahs reports SNOW of M3.5 INCH at 01:30 PM CST — drifts beginning to form.

(3:11pm) LOT: De Kalb [Dekalb Co, IL] trained spotter reports SNOW of M2.9 INCH at 03:11 PM CST — at NIU.

(2:46pm) LOT: Forreston [Ogle Co, IL] public reports SNOW of M4.5 INCH at 02:35 PM CST — relayed by broadcast media.

(2:21pm) DVN: 4 Ese Galena [Jo Daviess Co, IL] trained spotter reports SNOW of E5.0 INCH at 01:57 PM CST — storm total so far

(2:11pm) DVN: Sterling [Whiteside Co, IL] trained spotter reports SNOW of M3.0 INCH at 01:57 PM CST — storm total so far

(2:07pm) LOT: Capron [Boone Co, IL] public reports SNOW of M2.2 INCH at 02:02 PM CST — relayed by broadcast media.

(2:03pm) LOT: Rockford [Winnebago Co, IL] public reports SNOW of M2.5 INCH at 01:10 PM CST —




2:30pm Update: Light to moderate snow will continue into the late evening before tapering off by Friday morning.  Totals anywhere between 2"-3" have been reported areawide so far.  It's likely we'll receive another 3"-4" heading into the night.  Winds will begin to increase in intensity with blowing and drifting remaining a problem for your evening commute.

1:00pm Update:  Winter Weather Advisory continues for Green, Rock and Walworth counties in southern Wisconsin and for the counties in North-Central Illinois.  An upgrade to a Winter Storm Warning was issued for Stephenson, Jo Daviess, Carroll and Whiteside counties.  Light to moderate snow will continue to fall throughout the rest of the afternoon and into the evening.  There is a band of heavier snow forming across eastern Iowa which could move into northwest Illinois later today.  We're still watching a few moderate snowfall bands here and there that will continue to move in from the south and within those bands snowfall rates may reach half an inch to three quarters inch.  Roads are slick and travel will be slow through the evening commute with visibility remaining around one mile. 



Update:  Stephenson, Jo Daviess, Carroll and Whiteside counties have also been put under a Winter Storm Warning.  This is due to the fact of a heavier snow band setting up across northeast Iowa and also the impacts on driving conditions the snow and wind will have later this evening.

McHenry County has been upgraded to a Winter Storm Warning.  The Winter Weather Advisory continues for the rest of northern Illinois and southern Wisconsin.

*We will be joining in on a conference call with the Chicago NWS around 11:30 this morning to discuss the snow going into the remainder of the afternoon and evening.

Embedded bands of moderate snow continue just to the south of the Rockford Metro and were lifting north.  They're actually beginning to position themselves in a little more west to east fashion. 

Within the moderate snow there could be rates of half an inch to one inch per hour.  These bands have been sitting over north-central Illinois as the upper level is beginning to pull through.  As this low does move through increased atmospheric lift will be sufficient enough to continue to produce snowfall through the evening.  We're stll looking for 3"-6", with a few locally higher amounts.