Saturday Severe Weather Update

12:26pm Update: The Stateline is quiet now, but severe weather will be possible later this afternoon into the evening. There is currently a Severe T-Storm Watch until 5pm for the following counties: Jo Daviess, Stephenson, Carroll, and Whiteside.

The entire Stateline is under a slight risk for severe weather today. The primary concern is strong winds, with isolated hail and tornado chances.

Radar at 12:20pm shows a line of storms off to our west, but nothing severe at the moment. We'll keep you updated through the day on the First Warn Weather blog, WTVO and FOX 39.

Weekend Weather Planner

The weekend forecast is showing some big changes for the Stateline, especially in the temperature department. Friday night will be another quiet and mild night with mostly clear skies becoming partly cloudy after midnight and lows in the upper 60s.

A cold front on Saturday will bring us the chance for a few afternoon storms, with better storm chances Saturday evening and overnight. Before that, we'll be hot and humid with highs in the low 90s and heat index values closer to triple digits. A few storms could be on the strong to severe side. Strong winds are the biggest threat with some hail possible. The longer it takes for these storms to move in, the less chance there is that they'll be severe.

This weekend will be the best chance we have for rain over the next week, so let's hope current model runs hold up. It looks like some areas could pick up close to 0.50" of rain Saturday night, with locally heavier amounts where there are stronger storms.

Sunday will be a much different story, as sunshine returns by the afternoon with no humidity and highs around 80. Have a great weekend, everyone!

Mostly Sunny and Hot Today

It will be mostly sunny and hot today with a high in the low 90's. Wind will be from the east around 10 mph. After mostly clear skies to start of the night tonight, it will become partly cloudy. Temperatures will bottom out just below 70 degrees with those easterly winds becoming light and variable by midnight. On Saturday it will be partly cloudy, hot, and becoming more humid. The high will be around 94 with scattered thunderstorms developing in the afternoon. A strong cool front will approach, and move through the area on Saturday night. There is a good chance of thunderstorms associated with the front, and there is a slight chance some of those storms may become severe with a chance of damaging winds. It will turn cooler with temperatures dropping into the middle 60's by daybreak. Sunday will be mostly sunny, cooler, and less humid with a high in the low 80's.

Drought Improving In Wisconsin

The latest drought monitor is showing improving conditions for Wisconsin. Thanks for several rounds of showers and storms last week, the state's extreme drought rating have been cut in half, going from around 20% last week to around 10% this week. Unfortunately, the Stateline portion of Wisconsin is still part of that 10% with our only good rain chance over the next week coming this weekend.

Illinois has seen very little change in its drought situation. More than 70% of the Land of Lincoln is still under extreme drought, including most of the Stateline.

The effects of the drought continue to be felt as 98 of Illinois' 102 counties are now considered disaster areas.

Storms Passing North of Madison

A cool front is sliding southeast across Wisconsin early this morning. Strong thunderstorms over central Wisconsin have weakend as they moved east just south of Green Bay. Another thunderstorm complex has developed just south of La Crosse as of 4 am. There are severe thunderstorms associated with this complex. It is moving generally toward the east at 30 mph, and may affect areas as far south as Madison by daybreak. The front will weaken as it moves into southern Wisconsin by mid day. With the front nearby throughout the rest of the day there is a slight chance that showers and thunderstorms will fire up into parts of northern Illinois later this morning through the afternoon hours. It will be hot today under partly cloudy skies with temperatures reaching around 93 degrees by mid afternoon.

Another Heat Record Falls

July is officially in the books for the Stateline and it was a record breaker. Thanks to several days with highs in the triple digits, our average high in July was over eight degrees warmer than normal. Our average temperature of 80.8 degrees in July is the warmest on record and breaks the old record of 80.3 degrees set back in 1921.

Climate Prediction Center Temp Outlook for August

Is any relief coming in August? According to the Climate Prediction Center, no. The August outlook still has us at above average temps and below average rainfall, which means we can probably expect more of the same of what we've already seen this summer.

Climate Prediction Center Precip Outlook for August

Best Chance of Rain... Saturday

The statistics are in for July.  As you already know without looking at the numbers, that July was a hot and dry month.  July averaged 80.8 degrees at the Rockford Airport, which was 7.0 degrees above average.  Precipitation totaled 2.68", which was 1.27" below the average of 3.95".  Severe drought continues across the Stateline with a deficit of 7.35" for the year.  The  National Weather Service outlook for the month of August indicates more hot and and drier than normal conditions across northern Illinois.  There is a slight chance of showers and thunderstorms on Thursday as a cool front drops southward across Wisconsin.  It will stall out and decay north of the Stateline.  Temperatures will be topping out in the low 90's through Saturday.  There will be a better chance of showers and thunderstorms on Saturday as a stronger disturbance and cold front moves through the Stateline.  Early estimates of rainfall for the Saturday system range from half to three quarters of an inch.  Of course those are rough numbers, and with summertime thunderstorms, amounts tend to be quite variable as systems move through.