It's cold today but it may not last!

The weather in 2012 was anything but ordinary.  From deadly tornadoes downstate during the month of February, record breaking summer heat across the middle of the country, western wildfires, Hurricane Issac late in August, Superstorm Sandy in October and a tornado outbreak in the south on Christmas Day, we wonder what the year of 2013 will bring.  Unfortunately for all you snow lovers it may not bring an abundance of the white stuff.

Before we look forward to January, let's look back at the month of December.  The month began with record warmth as the mercury climbed to a balmy 69° on the 3rd of December.  Not only did it break the record high for that day it also broke the all time record high for the month of December!  The average temperature monthly high was 33.4°, a whopping 8° above what the normal average high should be for the month.  This makes December 2012 the 5th warmest December on record for Rockford! As far as rainfall we actually came out on top with just shy of 2.5" reported at the Chicago/Rockford Int'l Aiport.  That wasn't the case for snowfall, however.  Typically the month of December is when we see the most snowfall with an average of 11.3" and January receiving just a little over 10".  This December we only received 2.1" of the white stuff.  Keep in mind that was here in Rockford.  Many locations north and west of here received quite a bit more the Thursday before Christmas.

The first of year will begin with plenty of sunshine but plenty of cold to go along with it.  Highs Tuesday afternoon are only expected to reach the mid to upper teens and then drop back into the single digits Tuesday night.  The cold we'll experience this afternoon will only last for a day before our sights are set on warmer temperatures by the weekend and the second week of January.  The image on the left is an ensemble map and shows the temperature anomaly at 850 mb (roughly 3,00ft above the surface).  The numbers and coloring on this image correspond the how many standard deviations we will be above average.  Beginning next week a major warm up is possible with forecast highs running anywhere between 4 and 8 standard deviations above average!  This means it's possible that high temperatures by the middle of next week could very well warm into the 40s and maybe even the 50s!  Now, before we get ahead of ourselves it's still a week away but signs are pointing to some sort of a warm up for the first two weeks of January.  It does, however, looked to followed by another cool down towards the middle of the month.

It's not about style tonight...it's about staying warm!

Just as meteorologist Eric Nefstead talked about this weekend the start of 2013 will be anything but warm!  Clouds will be in abundance this morning and afternoon as snow falls in central and southern Illinois.  A cold front passing through this morning will drop temperatures from the 30s into the low 20s and teens by this evening.  If you're New Year's Eve plans take you out tonight don't worry about style, just worry about staying warm.  By 7pm the mercury will drop to 18° and by the time you're ready to ring in the new year we'll be down to 14°.  By daybreak Tuesday we will have fallen all the way into the single digits as high pressure moves in and skies clear.  Wind chills tonight will also be an issue as some will wake up to chills as cold as -10°!  Stay warm and Happy New Year!

New Year's Cold Snap... Will Be Brief

A pair of weather systems over the plains are approaching from the west and northwest tonight.  The first system has pushed a warm front into the Stateline, and temperatures have risen into the low 30's across the entire area.  It is a unusual for the high temperature for the day to occur at night, but it does happen from time to time during the winter when a warm front moves in from the southwest.  It reached 32 degrees in Rockford at 10 pm under cloudy skies with a brisk southerly wind at 14 mph.  Temperatures are in the low to middle 30's to the immediate south and west of Rockford extending into eastern Iowa.  So, the high temperature on Monday will most likely occur after midnight.  Steady temperatures will hold then though daybreak.  A cold front will move across the area switching winds to the west, and then northwest.  Daytime temperatures will be in the middle 20's falling to the low 20's by 4 pm with a northwest wind 10 to 15 mph under mostly cloudy skies.  The second front further to the northwest will dissipate allowing cold air from Canada to overspread northern Illinois on New Year's Eve.  A bubble of arctic high pressure will be near Fargo, North Dakota as of 6 pm.  Northerly winds east of the high will bring in much colder air from Canada overnight.  Skies will become partly cloudy with drier air moving in, and it will be much colder with an overnight low near 4 degrees.  Wind chills could be as low as -5 around daybreak on New Year's Day.  The arctic high will move to near Omaha, Nebraska by 6 am on Tuesday morning.  Skies will be mostly sunny in Rockford, and the high temperature will only be around 13 degrees.  So, as the calendar turns over into the new year of 2013, our region will be seeing the coldest temperatures so far this season.  The high will move to near Moline, Illinois by 6 pm on Tuesday setting the stage for another cold night.  It will be mostly clear, and winds will be light.  The low will be around 3 above zero late Wednesday night.  An Alberta Clipper System over North Dakota will charge rapidly toward the southeast overnight reaching Quincy, Illinois by 6 am on Thursday morning.  The system will be moisture starved so no measurable snowfall is expected.  However, it will be mostly cloudy on Thursday, and some light snow and flurries cannot be ruled out.  The high will be near 24 degrees on Thursday.  The pattern will be changing so that the high pressure that follows in behind the departing Clipper System will not be from Canada.  It will be a bubble developing on the eastern flank of Pacific high pressure sitting over the inter mountain west.  It will slide to the southeast on Friday to Texas.  Skies will be mostly sunny with chilly temperatures on Friday with a high in the low 20's.  That cold, but not drastic.  On Saturday a couple of Canadian fronts will push in from the north.  Skies will be partly cloudy, and temperatures will continue to moderate because no frigid Canadian air will follow in behind the front.  The high on Saturday will be around 27 degrees.  The weather will be much the same on Sunday.

Some Cold Weather to Start Off the New Year

A weak system moving across the Great Lakes on Saturday was responsible for widespread cloud cover.  There was a little snow associated with the system, but accumulating snows were limited to mostly to Wisconsin, and amounts were generally less than 3 or 4".   Just a dusting, to a couple of tenths of an inch, were recorded across northern Illinois.  The clouds associated with the system have moved off to the east tonight leaving the sky illuminated by a just past full cold moon.  It is very bright out tonight with the moonlight enhanced by the areas snow cover.  A modified arctic high sprawling across the south central states ridges up across Iowa to our west.  Now that skies have cleared, the temperature will be able to dip down into the single digits overnight.  The low will be around 8 degrees with a west wind around 10 mph.  The high will move to Kentucky by noon on Sunday, and will continue to dominate our weather with mostly sunny skies and chilly temperatures.  The high on Sunday is expected to be only around 24 degrees.  The wind will shift around to the southwest at 6 to 12 mph.  With a southerly breeze in place on the back side of the high on Monday night in advance of  re-enforcing cold fronts over the northern plains,  the Stateline temperatures will remain steady overnight on Monday night holding around 23 degrees.  The new cold front will proceed southeast across our area by noontime on Monday.  No moisture is available for this system, so no snow is anticipated.  It will be mostly cloudy, though, with the max temperature occurring in the upper 20's before dropping back in the afternoon.  Canadian high pressure will slide in across the northern plains to a position over Minnesota by 6 pm on Monday evening.  With mostly clear skies the temperature on New Year's Eve will drop to around 7 degrees overnight.  The cold high will be over nearby Iowa early Tuesday.  Skies will be mostly sunny, and it will be cold with a high only in the middle teens.  Another system will approach rapidly from the northwest on Tuesday night.  On Wednesday the system will stretch from a weak low over lower Michigan though another low over northeast Iowa, and continue as a cold front across northwest Iowa and northern Nebraska. There may be enough moisture and upper air support to squeeze out some light snow as the system moves through the area on Wednesday night.  It should not be much, and no measurable snowfall is anticipated at this time.  Lows will be in the single digits again Wednesday, Thursday, and Friday nights.  Highs will only be in the upper teens Thursday and Friday.  Temperatures are expected to warm up a bit into the upper 20's on Saturday in advance of the next front dropping in from the northwest.

Friday morning weather update

11:00 am Update:  The snow falling earlier this morning has come to an end across northern Illinois but continues to lightly fall from Janesville northward.  As the upper level low passes later today we may begin to see a little more snow develop for this afternoon but any further accumulations will remain minor.  About a half an inch to a little over an inch of snow has fallen so far.

8:00 am Update:  Light snow now beginning to fall from Janesville, Rockford, Dixon and Rochelle this morning.  The falling snow may briefly reduce visibility if heavier snow bands develop.


Light snow is beginning to blossom on the radar this morning, however, a lot of this isn't reaching the surface just yet.  A dry layer in the atmosphere a few thousand feet above the surface is causing what snow that is falling from the clouds to evaporate.  It'll take some time for the atmosphere to become completely saturated to support snowfall later this morning and afternoon.  While this shouldn't cause too many headaches in northern Illinois there have been a few reports of slick roads on untreated surfaces northeast of Janesville.  As the falling snow works to saturate the atmosphere there may be a brief period of freezing drizzle mixed with those flurries north of the state line.  Watch for slick spots if your commute takes you north this morning.

Friday's Snow: What to Expect

Looks like a little bit of winter weather in the forecast for Friday. Here's everything you need to know for our next storm system.

Timing: Things look pretty quiet for the overnight Thursday. A few flurries will be possible, with increasing snow chances around daybreak. The latest models are showing snow showers moving in closer to midday now, but we'll say snow is possible starting Friday morning and going through the evening before tapering off heading into Saturday morning.

Totals: This isn't expecting to be a major storm. The snow we're expecting will be very fluffy, which could boost accumulations through the afternoon. Looks like a few inches will be possible Friday, with heavier totals to our north. Southern Wisconsin could see 3-4" in some spots.

Impacts: While it won't be a lot of snow, it looks like we'll see enough to make for some slick spots and messy roads. With temps being so close to the freezing mark Friday, some of our snow could melt and refreeze and temps drop Friday evening. Long story short... take it easy on the roads.

Orange Bowl Travel: If you're heading down to Florida on Friday to get a jump start on Orange Bowl festivities, be prepared for a few bumps in the road. Aside from snow locally, a wintry mix is possible for parts of southern Illinois and western Kentucky/Tennessee with showers in the forecast for the rest of the south.

Air travel to Florida might also be delayed slightly with Friday's snow, although flying will be much smoother than driving.

Light snow possible Friday

Cloudy skies stick around for another day while a little more sunshine will be seen just to the west.  While we bypassed a significant storm to the south it looks like an upper level low spinning in the Plains Thursday morning will move through the Great Lakes Friday bringing with it accumulating snowfall.  Snow falling in Nebraska and western Iowa will move east this evening and tonight with light snow developing after midnight to the west and overspreading northern Illinois and southern Wisconsin by midday Friday.  Accumulations don't look to be significant but snowfall totals could fluff up to 2" inches in far northern Illinois possibly nearing 3" inches further north in Wisconsin.  South of Rockford totals will remain less than an inch.