A Warming Trend Through Friday...Rain Thursday Nite

A sprawling area of high pressure will move from the southern plains late this afternoon to southern Missouri early tonight, and on eastward to Kentucky by daybreak on Monday. It is the dominant weather feature influencing the weather for northern Illinois, so skies will be clear overnight, and it will be chilly from what we are used to, but actually very close to seasonal averages with a low temperature in the low teens. The wind will be light and variable this evening through early tonight. It will be sunny on Monday with the high pressure continuing on eastward reaching West Virginia by noon time. A tight pressure gradient will develop between the high and a strong area of low pressure just north of Minnesota in south central Canada, so it will get windy. The winds will be southwesterly at 15 to 25 mph by noon with gusts to 30 mph. Temperatures will rise into the middle and upper 30's. The circulation around the backside to high pressure over Virginia on Monday night will prevent the temperature from falling any lower than 25 degrees.  The average low this time of year is 14 degrees.  On Tuesday the high will be off the middle Atlantic coast.  Southwesterly winds will continue across the Stateline pushing the afternoon high close to 40 degrees under mostly sunny skies.  It will continue mostly sunny of Wednesday with that persistent southerly breeze pushing the temperature into the low 40's. One must keep in mind that the average high temperatures this time of year are in the upper 20's.  The pattern will start to change on Wednesday, though, with a closed low moving into Texas.  The subtropical jet stream will develop a kink in itself carrying the Texas low toward the northeast.  The Gulf of Mexico will open up allowing copious amounts of moisture to be available for this system.  Heavy rains will develop east of the system from the coastal areas of east Texas into the lower Mississippi valley.  Generous rains will develop on toward the northeast as the low moves to Oklahoma by early Thursday.  It will be very mild in the Stateline on Thursday under the continuing southerly wind flow, and it will become mostly cloudy with scattered showers developing as far north as southern Wisconsin by the afternoon.  Projected high temperatures will  be in the middle 40's, and the low temperature on Thursday night will be near 40 degrees.   Rain will be likely on Thursday night with the low located near Champaign, Illinois by 6 am on Friday. It will be cloudy and mild on Friday with scattered showers, and a high in the upper 40's.  This system will weaken considerably as it moves to near New York City by breakfast time on Saturday.  At the same time a cold front with waves of low pressure along it will push southeast from Minnesota and northwestern Iowa to a low Near Chicago southwest across Illinois, southwest Missouri, northern Oklahoma to a low over northeastern New Mexico.  It will be cooler on Saturday with more scattered showers.  The front will make very little eastward progress on Sunday as the southern plains low zips northeast to a position over central Lake Michigan by 6 am.  The Stateline will be on the cold side of this system, so a combination of rain and snow could begin on Saturday night changing over to all snow on Sunday.  It will be colder on Sunday with a high in the upper 20's.  The weather in the following week look like it will be very cold at this time.

Patchy Freezing Drizzle Overnight

An area of low pressure moved toward the northeast across the area late this afternoon and early this evening. It was responsible for the cloudy gloomy day on Saturday producing some sloppy wet snow and light rain.  Parts of northeastern Illinois were able to total up a few tenths of an inch to around half an inch.  There wasn't any measurable snow reported from the Rockford airport, and rainfall totals were meager with 0.03" recorded.  With the upper low moving off to the northeast, it's time to look to the west for our next weather maker.  There is a cold front stretching from north central Wisconsin southwest to near Dubuque, Iowa, Cedar Rapids, and Ottumwa into north central Missouri at 9 pm CDT.   Temperatures are expected to fall below freezing across the Stateline shortly after midnight.  There is some warmer air aloft associated with the front that will allow patchy freezing drizzle to develop.  There could also be some light snow or flurries, but no accumulation of snow or ice is anticipated.  Caution is advised for drivers later on tonight through daybreak because of the possibility of slippery spots developing on the streets.  The cold front will be exiting all but the extreme southeastern tip of Illinois by 6 am on Sunday morning. The wind will switch from the southwest to the west with frontal passage by midnight, and then northwest later on tonight.  The temperature will drop into the low 20's by 6 am, and hold there through the mid morning hours on Sunday.  Sunday will start off cloudy, but no measurable precipitation is expected.  A few snow flurries cannot be ruled out.  The wind will be quite brisk from the northwest in the morning hours running between 15 and 20 mph with some higher gusts.  The wind will diminish in the afternoon to less than 10 mph by 4 pm, and the clouds will start to break up.  The high temperature will be around 27 degrees.  A chilly high will be located over southeastern Missouri by 6 pm on Sunday evening.  Skies will become mostly clear, and the wind will be light and variable.  It will be colder with a low on Sunday night around 13 degrees.  It will not take long for things to start to warm up, though, with the high pressure center moving to eastern Kentucky by 6 am on Monday.  A breezy southwest wind will develop across the Stateline on Monday pumping temperatures up into the middle 30's under sunny skies.  Temperatures will not drop much on Monday night with the southwesterly breezes continuing overnight.  The low will be in the middle 20's.  On Tuesday temperatures will bounce back to around 37 degrees.   A new cold front will drop southeast  across Wisconsin and northern Iowa.  Right now it does not look like the front will quite make it this far south.  On Wednesday a vigorous system will develop over Texas, and start it's move toward the northeast.  Southerly winds will push the temperatures over north central Illinois into the low 40's.  The low on Wednesday night will be in the upper 20's under mostly cloudy skies.  On Thursday the Texas low will be near Kansas City at 6 am.  A southerly wind will continue across the Stateline.  It will be mostly cloudy with high temperatures reaching the low 40's again along with a good chance of rain.  Chances of rain will continue off and on through Saturday. High temperatures will continue to be right around 40 degrees.

Chance of Light Snow Late Saturday

High pressure sprawling across the south central part of the USA continues to dominate weather across the Stateline. Skies have been sunny all day with a high in the low 30's. It will be mostly clear overnight with a low in the upper teens. Moisture will be drawn northward on Saturday from the lower Mississippi Valley into Illinois as a weather system moves toward our area from the west. Skies will start out mostly sunny, but clouds will increase in the afternoon becoming cloudy by late afternoon when there will be a good chance of a little light snow. No real accumulation is expected at this time. Mostly likely northern Illinois will get just a dusting from this system to possibly a tenth of an inch or two. Meanwhile, areas well to the south may get an inch of two. There is a chance of light snow on Saturday evening early. Then there could be some patchy freezing drizzle mixed with light snow before midnight, and flurries mixed with freezing drizzle after midnight. Low temperatures are expected to be in the low 20's on Saturday night. Sunday will start off with clouds, but it will become partly sunny by afternoon. The high will be in the upper 20's. High pressure will move to Missouri by 6 pm on Sunday night setting the stage for mostly clear skies with light and variable winds. The low will be around 15 degrees. It will become quite breezy on Monday as high pressure moves to Kentucky and a strong low pressure system moves across south central Canada. The tight pressure gradient set up between the high and the low will push winds above 20 mph from the southwest. Skies will be sunny and a warm up will ensue raising the temperature into the upper 30's on Monday afternoon. It will be relatively mild on Monday night with a low around 26 degrees. The temperature will continue to be above normal on Tuesday, Wednesday, and Thursday with high temperatures in the low 40's. A weather system that is expected to move toward the northeast out of the southern plains late in the week may bring some rain into the Stateline on Wednesday night. Chances of rain will continue on Thursday. On Friday colder sir will follow in behind the system so that rain would change over to wet snow. The high on Friday is expected to be in the middle 30's.

When Models Disagree...

Part of our job as meteorologists is to look at what all the different weather models give us and decide from that information what the forecast is going to look like. Most of the time, there are differences between the models, but they're minor differences. One model might say it will be partly cloudy while another says it will be mostly cloudy. One model might say it will rain in the morning while another says it will rain in the afternoon. And then there's this...

The models agree that a major system is moving through the Stateline next week. The similarities end after that.

The GFS (American Model) has this system moving in on Tuesday and staying to our south. That would equate to highs in the 30s and some sort of rain/snow mix for us.

The European model has this same system moving in on Thursday to our north. This situation would give us rain with highs in the 40s, not to mentions a BIG warm-up into the 40s and 50s in the days before the storm arrives.

Right now, it looks like the GFS had a hiccup. Most of the model runs from this afternoon are siding with the European, and so am I. Enjoy the 7-Day Forecast! -BA

Amazing record breaking stats for 2012

As evening meteorologist Brandon Arnold talked about in a previous post 2012 will go down in the record books for the warmest year in Rockford with the an average temperature of 53.1° but the 3rd driest year on record!

In this post, I wanted to give a complete break down of each month during 2012 and just exactly where those records came from.
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January 11th record high temperature of 57°
January 20th a record 5.1" of snow fell
January 30th tied the record high temperature of 52°

February 24th a record 4.0" of snow fell
February 29th a record 0.21" of precipitation fell

March 7th tied the record warm low temperature of 47°
March 14th record high temperature of 79°
March 15th record high temperature of 82°...record warm low temperature of 54°
March 16th record high temperature of 80°...record warm low temperature of 48°
March 17th record high temperature of 82°...record warm low temperature of 57°
March 18th record high temperature of 81°...record warm low temperature of 54°
March 19th record high temperature of 78°...record warm low temperature of 62°
March 20th record high temperature of 83°...record warm low temperature of 61°
March 21st record high temperature of 84°...record warm low temperature of 62°
March 22nd record high temperature of 79°...record low temperature of 61°
March 23rd record warm low temperature of 53°
Warmest March on Record with average temperature of 52.4°

April 15th record daily precipitation of 2.26"

May 24th tied record high temperature of 93°
May 27th record high temperature of 99°
March 28th record warm low temperature of 69°
March 31st record low high temperature of 52°

June 19th record warm low temperature of 76°
June 20th tied record warm low temperature of 73°

July 3rd record warm low temperature of 75°
July 4th record high temperature of 102°
July 5th record high temperature of 102°
July 6th record high temperature of 104°...record warm low temperature of 77°
July 7th tied record high temperature of 105°
July 18th record high temperature of 99°
July 23rd tied record warm low temperature of 76°
Warmest July on record with average temperature of 80.8°

December 3rd record high temperature of 69°...also the warmest December temperature on record
December 20th record daily precipitation of 1.27"

Rockford Weather Year In Review

It's officially 2013, so let's take a look back at a record breaking 2012.

The biggest headline from 2012 was how warm it was. The average temperature for Rockford last year was 53.1°, making it the warmest year we've seen on record.

Other temperature records include the warmest March (52.4°) and July (80.8°) on record for Rockford and the warmest December temperature on record (69°).

Coming in a very close second in terms of making headlines was how dry we were. 2012 was the third driest year on record for Rockford. If it wasn't for all the rain we saw during our December blizzard, we would have set the record easily. These dry conditions led to a massive drought that we're still dealing with today.

Other interesting tidbits about 2012 include the fact that we never went below zero degree in Rockford, but hit 100 degrees six times. The last time we had multiple days hitting 100 degrees in the same year was 1988.

It's cold today but it may not last!

The weather in 2012 was anything but ordinary.  From deadly tornadoes downstate during the month of February, record breaking summer heat across the middle of the country, western wildfires, Hurricane Issac late in August, Superstorm Sandy in October and a tornado outbreak in the south on Christmas Day, we wonder what the year of 2013 will bring.  Unfortunately for all you snow lovers it may not bring an abundance of the white stuff.

Before we look forward to January, let's look back at the month of December.  The month began with record warmth as the mercury climbed to a balmy 69° on the 3rd of December.  Not only did it break the record high for that day it also broke the all time record high for the month of December!  The average temperature monthly high was 33.4°, a whopping 8° above what the normal average high should be for the month.  This makes December 2012 the 5th warmest December on record for Rockford! As far as rainfall we actually came out on top with just shy of 2.5" reported at the Chicago/Rockford Int'l Aiport.  That wasn't the case for snowfall, however.  Typically the month of December is when we see the most snowfall with an average of 11.3" and January receiving just a little over 10".  This December we only received 2.1" of the white stuff.  Keep in mind that was here in Rockford.  Many locations north and west of here received quite a bit more the Thursday before Christmas.

The first of year will begin with plenty of sunshine but plenty of cold to go along with it.  Highs Tuesday afternoon are only expected to reach the mid to upper teens and then drop back into the single digits Tuesday night.  The cold we'll experience this afternoon will only last for a day before our sights are set on warmer temperatures by the weekend and the second week of January.  The image on the left is an ensemble map and shows the temperature anomaly at 850 mb (roughly 3,00ft above the surface).  The numbers and coloring on this image correspond the how many standard deviations we will be above average.  Beginning next week a major warm up is possible with forecast highs running anywhere between 4 and 8 standard deviations above average!  This means it's possible that high temperatures by the middle of next week could very well warm into the 40s and maybe even the 50s!  Now, before we get ahead of ourselves it's still a week away but signs are pointing to some sort of a warm up for the first two weeks of January.  It does, however, looked to followed by another cool down towards the middle of the month.