Last week of February will not be a quiet one

Snowfall during the month of February has been anything but lacking.  We've received over 15" of snow this month boosting us nearly 9" above our month average.  Unfortunately, when looking back to December 1st (which is the beginning of Meteorological Winter) we're still almost 8" below.  While we've made up for lost time these past few weeks it looks like the last week of February will not go out quiet.

The next winter storm has already moved into the Pacific Northwest and will dive out of the southern Rockies and into the panhandles of Oklahoma and Texas by Sunday night.  By Monday the low will be moving near the Missouri/Arkansas border and then to St. Louis, MO by Monday night.  Tuesday the low will be tracking across central Illinois before moving into Michigan by Wednesday.  Unlike this past storm that just came through, this one looks to take a more southern track.  One reason, the recent snowfall we received will act somewhat like a baroclinic zone ( mini frontal boundary ).  Storm systems tend to follow where there is the greatest temperature gradient.  An area that has snow cover on the ground often times is cooler than a surrounding area that doesn't have as much or very little snow cover.  As of Saturday afternoon the ground was white down through central Illinois and almost all of Missouri.  Now by Sunday some of the snow will have likely melted due to the sunshine expected, but there should still be a little snow left on the ground.  Some accumulating snow will be likely across the area Tuesday but the temperature profile may be a bigger factor with this storm than with the last.  Warmer air wrapping into the storm from the east and southeast could cause a mixture of sleet, rain or even freezing rain from a line east of Kenosha, WI to Woodstock to Rochelle to Dixon while areas west of that line have a greater probability of all snow.

Accumulating snow will occur for parts of Northern Illinois and Southern Wisconsin but just like the last storm, this one will also be in a weakening phase when it arrives.  Once this main low passes it'll continue to spin in the eastern Great Lakes for the next few days keeping snow in the forecast through next Thursday. 

Another Winter Storm?

While Thursday night's "winter storm" fizzled out as it moved into the Stateline, we'll have another shot at some decent snow totals starting Monday night. Model runs have a low pressure passing to our south Monday night and Tuesday, putting us at risk for being in the bulls-eye of heaviest snowfall.

Don't panic just yet, though. Many model runs have this storm passing far enough south that central Illinois gets the heaviest snow, not the Stateline. More info this weekend!

Thursday Night Snow Totals

Snowfall totals as of 7:00pm range from 2-5", which the heaviest snowfalls in McHenry County and Jo Daviess counties.

A few light snow showers will still be possible this evening, but no further accumulation is expected.

If you have any snowfall totals to report, please send them in! E-mail us weather@wtvo.com. Thanks!

Friday Morning Update: Heaviest snowfall winding down

7:50 am Update:  Heavy snow from the overnight has ended, however, low pressure is now moving near Muscatine, IA and a band of light to moderate snow has developed just to the north.  This snow band is now crossing the Mississippi River with visibility dropping to less than 2 miles from Galena to Savanna.  Snow will move back into the Stateline between 9am/10am (a little sooner west of Rockford) and continue into the early afternoon.  An additional inch or two will be possible with the second round of snow. 

3:00 am Update:

As was mentioned earlier, a dry wedge of air has wrapped itself around low pressure currently in northern Missouri.  This has essentially ended the heavy snow from south to north and will continue to do so through the remainder of the morning.  There are, however, snow showers in Iowa that will rotate through later today. 

Current winds are sustained from the east around 10-20 mph with occassional gusts nearing 25 mph.  Blowing and drifting snow will occur through mid-morning until the winds ease a bit and shift to the southeast and then southwest.  So far snow totals range from the 2"-3" mark across the Stateline.

Snowfall amounts:

(11:40:06 AM) nwsbot: Local Storm Report by NWS DVN: 2 ESE Ridott [Stephenson Co, IL] trained spotter reports SNOW of M3.6 INCH at 11:39 AM CST --


(2/22/2013 11:19:30 AM) nwsbot: Local Storm Report by NWS DVN: 2 NNW Thomson [Carroll Co, IL] trained spotter reports SNOW of M3.1 INCH at 11:13 AM CST --


(2/22/2013 11:05:48 AM) nwsbot: Local Storm Report by NWS DVN: 7 NNW Mount Carroll [Carroll Co, IL] trained spotter reports SNOW of M3.0 INCH at 07:00 AM CST -- snowfall total.

(11:19:26 AM) nwsbot: Local Storm Report by NWS DVN: 2 NNW Thomson [Carroll Co, IL] trained spotter reports SNOW of M3.1 INCH at 11:13 AM CST --


(11:05:45 AM) nwsbot: Local Storm Report by NWS DVN: 7 NNW Mount Carroll [Carroll Co, IL] trained spotter reports SNOW of M3.0 INCH at 07:00 AM CST -- snowfall total.

(8:15:35 AM) nwsbot: Local Storm Report by NWS DVN: 1 WNW Morrison [Whiteside Co, IL] trained spotter reports SNOW of M3.0 INCH at 08:13 AM CST --

(7:55:58 AM) nwsbot: Local Storm Report by NWS LOT: Rockford Airport [Winnebago Co, IL] official nws obs reports SNOW of M2.6 INCH at 07:01 AM CST --


(7:44:25 AM) nwsbot: Local Storm Report by NWS DVN: Freeport [Stephenson Co, IL] trained spotter reports SNOW of E4.0 INCH at 07:37 AM CST -- storm total so far.


(7:44:25 AM) nwsbot: Local Storm Report by NWS DVN: ESE Monmouth [Warren Co, IL] trained spotter reports SNOW of M4.5 INCH at 07:37 AM CST -- still snowing.


(7:22:47 AM) nwsbot: Local Storm Report by NWS MKX: Milton [Rock Co, WI] nws employee reports SNOW of M2.5 INCH at 07:22 AM CST --



(7:23:32 AM) nwsbot: Local Storm Report by NWS MKX: 3 S LA Grange [Walworth Co, WI] trained spotter reports SNOW of M4.0 INCH at 07:23 AM CST --    


(7:21:49 AM) nwsbot: Local Storm Report by NWS LOT: Byron [Ogle Co, IL] public reports SNOW of E3.0 INCH at 07:17 AM CST -- relayed by wtvo.


(7:03:35 AM) nwsbot: Local Storm Report by NWS LOT: Rockford Airport [Winnebago Co, IL] official nws obs reports SNOW of M2.7 INCH at 07:01 AM CST --


(6:59:46 AM) nwsbot: Local Storm Report by NWS LOT: Rockford [Winnebago Co, IL] trained spotter reports SNOW of M3.0 INCH at 06:50 AM CST -- storm total. east side of town.

(6:26:44 AM) nwsbot: Local Storm Report by NWS LOT: N Huntley [Mchenry Co, IL] cocorahs reports SNOW of M3.8 INCH at 06:15 AM CST -- overnight snowfall. 4 inches on ground.



(6:13:29 AM) nwsbot: Local Storm Report by NWS MKX: E Evansville [Rock Co, WI] cocorahs reports SNOW of M2.4 INCH at 06:12 AM CST --


(5:29:15 AM) nwsbot: Local Storm Report by NWS LOT: Woodstock [Mchenry Co, IL] co-op observer reports SNOW of M5.0 INCH at 05:28 AM CST --


(5:21:57 AM) nwsbot: Local Storm Report by NWS LOT: 4 WNW Rockford [Winnebago Co, IL] broadcast media reports SNOW of M2.5 INCH at 04:00 AM CST -- wtvo tv rockford.


(5:20:46 AM) nwsbot: Local Storm Report by NWS LOT: Forreston [Ogle Co, IL] public reports SNOW of M4.1 INCH at 05:19 AM CST --


(4:44:36 AM) nwsbot: Local Storm Report by NWS MKX: Edgerton [Rock Co, WI] trained spotter reports SNOW of M2.2 INCH at 04:43 AM CST -- snow covered roads.


(2:47:18 AM) nwsbot: Local Storm Report by NWS MKX: Janesville Airport [Rock Co, WI] law enforcement reports SNOW of E2.0 INCH at 02:27 AM CST --



(2:40:11 AM) nwsbot: Local Storm Report by NWS LOT: Rockford [Winnebago Co, IL] broadcast media reports SNOW of M2.5 INCH at 01:08 AM CST -- northeast side of rockford. still moderate snow falling. blowing and drifting snow.


(2/22/2013 12:20:33 AM) nwsbot: Local Storm Report by NWS LOT: Sycamore [Dekalb Co, IL] trained spotter reports SNOW of E2.0 INCH at 12:19 AM CST -- estimated 1 to 2 inches snow...near white out conditions at times driving between sycamore and st charles


(2/22/2013 12:57:14 AM) nwsbot: Local Storm Report by NWS MKX: Beloit [Rock Co, WI] trained spotter reports SNOW of M0.5 INCH at 12:55 AM CST -- in the past hour. still snowing with blowing snow. snow-covered roads.



2/22/2013 12:20:02 AM) nwsbot: Local Storm Report by NWS DVN: 4 WNW Dubuque [Dubuque Co, IA] trained spotter reports SNOW of M2.9 INCH at 12:19 AM CST -- still snowing.

Winter Storm Update: Part II

The snow is starting to move in, but a small change to the forecast could really affect our snow totals heading into Friday morning.

Precision Doppler at 9:29pm

The overall timing of the forecast and the hazards with this storm haven't changed. We're still talking heavy bursts of snow late this evening through the early morning hours combined with wind gusts of 30mph to create lowered visibilities and blowing and drifting snow. Roads will be messy Friday morning, although winds and snow will calm significantly heading into the afternoon.

RPM Model: Accumulated Snow Through Friday Night

Here's the change... dry air is starting to get wrapped up into the storm system. This means accumulating snow may end earlier than expected, especially to our south. In fact, our latest in-house models are picking up on that drier air and dropping snow totals along the I-88 corridor.

Official First Warn Snow Forecast

We won't change the overall snow forecast. We're still calling for 3-6" by Friday morning... maybe a little more to our west. But at this point, we might be closer to 3" of snow instead of 6" to finish the work week. -BA

Winter Storm Update

Our next winter storm is almost here! Here's the latest.

Radar at 5:25pm

Precision Doppler is showing the bulk of our snow still sitting in central Illinois as of 5:25pm. Snow is expected to move in after dark and start picking up major steam around 9:00 or 10:00pm.

Here's the latest impact forecast. The heaviest snow will fall late this evening and through the overnight. Snowfall rates could top 1" an hour. Combine that with wind gusts of 30mph, and we're talking blowing and drifting snow... not to mention limited visibilities. The snow and wind will calm by Friday morning, but the morning commute is looking messy, especially on secondary streets and untreated roadways.

The snow forecast hasn't changed much from Wednesday. We're still talking 3-6" for most of the Stateline, with an extra inch or two possible for our western counties (Jo Daviess, Carroll, and Whiteside).

Just a reminder to take it easy on the roads tonight and tomorrow morning. If you have an emergency kit in your car, make sure it's ready to go. If you don't, you should get an emergency kit! Basics include a first aid kit, a flashlight, blankets, water, and food.

We'll keep you updated through the night as the snow starts to fall... and don't forget to send us your snow reports or pictures. They help us know what's going on out there! E-mail them to weather@wtvo.com. Thanks!

Snowfall Timeline

Heavy snow with snowfall rates of 2" per hour continues to fall in Northeast Kansas and Northern Missouri!  Even thundersnow has been reported near Topeka, KS with thunder, sleet, snow and freezing rain in Joplin, MO.  This storm is headed in our direction later today but will be weakening as it does. 

Overall snowfall forecast still looks on track with 3"-6" of snow occurring, however, areas west of Rockford closer to the Mississippi River could see higher amounts.  A few flurries are possible throughout the day as clouds thicken and are able to squeeze out any moisture within them.  I anticipate snow to move near the Quad Cities between 3pm-6pm and spread northeast between 6pm-9pm with all of Northern Illinois and Southern Wisconsin seeing snow by 9pm.  The snow will start light but quickly turn heavy with snowfall rates of 1" per hour for a brief period.  Snowfall may be heavy for a 2-4 hour period before turning light once again by Friday morning.