Monday Evening Winter Storm Update

Here's the latest on our next winter storm, which is expected to the be the biggest we've seen so far this winter. 

TIMING: Snow will slowly move in after midnight, but won't start to pick up steam until mid to late morning.

Snow will be at its heaviest during the afternoon. Snowfall rates could be as high as 1-2" an hour during this time. Wind gusts will be around 30mph.

Snow will start to lighten into the evening, with completely dry conditions by Wednesday morning.

IMPACT: Your morning commute could be messy thanks to the snow, especially west of Rockford. The ease of your morning drive depends on how quickly the snow moves in. The evening commute will definitely be impacted, thanks to heavy snow and wind. Blowing and drifting snow will be likely, as well as whiteout conditions. Even with snow lightening into the evening, blowing and drifting snow will continue into the overnight.

TOTALS: This should be the biggest snow we've seen in a few years. We'll call for 6-10" through the day. Models suggest we'll see lesser amounts to the northeast of Rockford. Some isolated spots southwest of Rockford could see up to a foot in accumulation.

Late season winter storm update

1:00pm Update: Dry air remains in place across northern Illinois and southern Wisconsin so the leading edge of warm air that produced snow in Iowa earlier this morning fizzled a little, however, there have been some reports of light snow reaching the surface across Illinois.  Accumulations will remain minor through tonight with the main snow event still arriving after midnight tonight.

 

A Winter Storm Warning remains in effect for all of Southern Wisconsin and Northern Illinois beginning late tonight and lasting through Tuesday night.  Low pressure currently in the Plains will continue to dive southeast into Iowa tonight and south of the Stateline Tuesday.  Snow will begin to fall after midnight tonight (closer to dawn Tuesday for some) and continue through Tuesday night.  Heavy snow looks to begin mid to late morning Tuesday and last through the afternoon/evening commute with the evening commute becoming heavily impacted once the snow begins.  Snowfall amounts between 6"-8" with isolated amounts near 10" still look possible once the snow ends by Wednesday morning; especially if snowfall rates of 1" per hour or more occur.  Winds will increase from the north by Tuesday afternoon with blowing and drifting snow becoming a concern through Tuesday night and even a little Wednesday morning.  Travel by Tuesday afternoon will become very difficult with whiteout and blizzard conditions expected.

 

 

 

 

Dry air in place across northern Illinois and southern Wisconsin will slow the eastward progression of the light snow currently in Iowa.  Temperatures right now are in the low 20s under cloudy skies.  The snow will move in from west to east later this morning and through early afternoon.  Accumulations will remain minor with roughly 1"-2" falling from this initial band.  Looking at this first band as it moves east does show the snow decreasing in coverage some.

Winter Storm Warnings have been issued for all of northern Illinois and southern Wisconsin and these will go into effect late tonight and last throughout the day Tuesday.   Looks like we'll get two rounds of snowfall between now and Wednesday morning.  The first with what's coming today and the second with the main low pressure system.  A strong clipper system will continue to dive southeast out of the Plains this afternoon into Iowa by this evening and just south of the Stateline by Tuesday afternoon.  Snow after midnight tonight will increase in coverage and intensity through Tuesday morning with the heaviest of the snow falling during Tuesday afternoon.  Right now the track of the low places the heaviest snow band across the area from Madison, WI to Rochelle, IL where two day storm totals could reach close to 10".  It's important to note that there's still time for a slight shift in this track, but most should receive close to 6" of snowfall when all said and done.  Also, if there are any showers or storms that develop downstate this will block the Gulf moisture supply feeding into this storm which would cut back on snow totals.

The snow that will initially fall will be a little heavy and wet with low snow to liquid ratios but as colder air wraps into the storm by Tuesday afternoon the snow to liquid ratios will increase and with an increase in wind the snow will begin to blow around and drift over roads through Tuesday night.  Once the snow begins road conditions will quickly deteriorate as heavy snow (snowfall rates near 1"/hr) will be likely.  Morning model runs will come out between 9am and 11am and I'll have another complete analysis on here later today.

Update On Our Next Winter Storm

Despite it being March, we're still looking at another winter storm starting Monday and really picking up steam Tuesday. Here's the latest...

Our timeline looks like this: Snow begins on Monday, but stays fairly light through the day. A few inches of accumulation will be possible, especially off to our west, before snow starts to build in intensity Monday night. The bulk of our snow will happen on Tuesday.

Models have been very consistent in producing a heavy band of snow in the vicinity of the Stateline. Some scenarios have snow totals up to 10-12" in this band. The problem is we don't know where that band of snow will eventually land. Many model runs Sunday afternoon kept it in southern Wisconsin, but it could still shift south. Assuming the heaviest snow stays north, we could still see accumulations of 6" or more by Tuesday night. Regardless of what happens, we will see accumulating snow Monday into Tuesday and it will cause travel concerns, especially on Tuesday.

Because of the threat for heavy snow, the entire Stateline will be under a Winter Storm Watch for Monday and Tuesday. Jo Daviess County will be under a Winter Weather Advisory starting Monday.

Stay tuned to the blog for the latest on this next winter storm.

More winter weather on the way - Say it isn't snow!

Apparently the groundhog needs to go back to meteorology school!  After we just wrapped up the 5th snowiest February in Rockford's history, it looks like more winter weather will return to the Plains and Midwest.  Low pressure moving onshore in British Columbia tonight will dive southeast into Montana by Monday and south of the Stateline Tuesday afternoon.  Warm air ahead of the developing low will lift north into northern Illinois and southern Wisconsin with precipitation developing to the south and extending northwest into Iowa and Minnesota.  An east wind during the day Monday should keep the majority of the area dry but as low pressure moves closer Monday night precipitation, mainly snow, will move in and continue into Tuesday.  There remains some question in the exact track of the low as of Saturday evening but it does appear we will all receive snow by Tuesday night - it's just a matter of how much!  With such a dynamic storm system, it's possible some in the Midwest may receive in excess of 6" of snow!  Something we'll track very closely these next couple of days.  The surface low will move through southern Illinois but an inverted trough - or long area of low pressure - will extend northwest from the low into northern Illinois and it appears as if this is where the majority of our snow will come from by Tuesday night.  Winds will also be increasing from the east/northeast Tuesday so any snow that does fall will likely blow around and may drift a little.  There is still some time for the track of this low to shift some which would determine where exactly the snow, and heavy snow, falls.  A Winter Storm Watch has already been issued for northwest Illinois for the counties of Stephenson, Jo Daviess, Carroll and Whiteside.   



3:50pm Update:



A Winter Storm Watch has been issued for Jo Daviess, Stephenson, Carroll and Whiteside counties beginning Monday morning and lasting through Tuesday afternoon.  A complete update right here will be coming out later this afternoon on the potential for another snow storm early next week.  Stay tuned!

Mother Nature not done with the snow just yet

The calendar may say March 1st, but it'll feel anything but that going into the weekend and early next week.  Average high temperatures for the first week of March should be in the low 40s, but we'll be stuck in the upper 20s and low to mid 30s through next Tuesday afternoon.  After a little light snow Friday morning we'll get a break from the wintry weather as high pressure moves into the Midwest this weekend.  It won't last long, however, as another quick moving clipper system swings into the Plains Sunday night and to the south of the Stateline Monday night.  Warm air from the south moving over colder air at the surface will allow for a few light snow showers to develop possibly as early as Monday morning and continue all the way through Tuesday before the low swings into the Ohio River Valley Wednesday.  After that, temperatures will warm going into the end of next week but then look to cool right back down the following week. 

Friday Morning Weather Update: More Snow....

Pesky light snow showers will continue this morning with a north/northeast wind blowing off of Lake Michigan.  While not true lake-effect snow there is an upper level disturbance moving through the western Great Lakes that has allowed the snow to expand a bit in coverage across Southern Wisconsin and Northern Illinois.  A light dusting to maybe a couple tenths of an inch of snow will accumulate before tapering off to flurries this afternoon.  Winds remain breezy from the north between 10-20 mph and I did notice a little snow blowing over east/west roads earlier this morning.  There may be a few slick spots, especially in open and rural areas, on your morning commute.

Big Changes With Start of Spring

If you look at the calendar, spring is still a few weeks away, but meteorological spring starts Friday! So what does this mean for the Stateline? Hopefully, a big warm-up. And here's why.

March 1st

On March 1st, the official start of meteorological spring, our sun angle is still fairly low. Combine that with less than 12 hours of sunlight to help warm those temps up, and average highs are barely squeaking into the 40s.

March 31st

Let's fast forward to the end of the month. Not only do we add an hour and a half to our total amount of daylight, but a higher sun angle gives us the ability the warm up more. Heading into April, we're talking average highs well into the 50s!

As for the actual forecast, it'll be a chilly weekend with sunshine and highs in the upper 20s, but we do look to warm into the 40s by the middle of next week.