Tuesday, March 5, 2013

Tuesday Winter Weather Update


9:00pm Update: Snow totals as of 9:00pm...



Illinois
Rockford – 11.0
Loves Park – 11.0
Cortland – 10.1
DeKalb – 9.5
RFD Airport – 9.5
Belvidere – 8.8
Sycamore – 8.5
Spring Grove – 8.0
Stockton – 7.8
Galena Territory – 7.7
Freeport – 7.5
Huntley – 7.5
Kirkland – 7.5
Winnebago – 7.5
Mount Carroll – 7.2
Polo – 7.2
Forreston – 7.0
Galena – 7.0
Woodstock – 7.0
Harvard – 6.8
Lanark – 6.6
Morrison – 6.5
Rochelle – 6.5
Cary – 6.3
Fulton – 6.3
Roscoe – 6.1
Capron – 6.0
Rock Falls – 6.0
Crystal Lake – 5.8
Thomson – 5.7
Sterling – 5.5
Shannon – 5.3
Ridott – 5.0
Schapville – 5.0
Algonquin – 4.8
Winnebago – 4.8
Erie – 4.5
McHenry – 4.5
Warren – 2.0

Wisconsin
Beloit – 9.0
Janesville – 8.7
Edgerton – 8.0
Lake Geneva – 7.7
Janesville Airport – 6.9
Monticello – 6.0
Whitewater – 5.5
Williams Bay – 5.3
Orfordville – 4.3
Milton – 4.1
Beloit – 3.0
Evansville – 2.5
La Grange – 2.2

8:00pm Update: Still seeing plenty of snow on the radar. You'll notice the heaviest snow runs from the Rockford area into Walworth County. There's a reason for that.


Winds are turning out of the north and east, which means lake effect snow that is pushing into the area. While this won't add major amounts of snow onto our current totals, it will keep things messy as long as winds keep up through the night.


7:00pm Update: Snow showers are slowly starting to lighten, especially to the west of Rockford. Snow will continue through this evening before ending after midnight.

Our Winter Storm Warning has been dropped for Jo Daviess, Stephenson, Carroll, and Whiteside counties. The rest of the viewing area will continue to be under the Warning through this evening due to some lingering snow and winds that will cause blowing, drifting, and limited visibilities.


Here's your impact forecast heading into the morning. Snow will end first (after midnight), followed by gusty winds, but a few messy spots will be possible in the morning as slushy spots freeze overnight.


6:00pm Update: Here's a look at preliminary snow totals as of 6:00pm...

Illinois
RFD Airport – 9.1
Belvidere – 8.8
DeKalb – 8.5
Rockford – 8.3
Loves Park – 8.0
Galena Territory – 7.7
Freeport – 7.5
Huntley – 7.5
Kirkland – 7.5
Winnebago – 7.5
Forreston – 7.0
Galena – 7.0
Woodstock – 7.0
Harvard – 6.8
Morrison – 6.5
Mount Carroll – 6.5
Rochelle – 6.5
Roscoe – 6.1
Capron – 6.0
Rock Falls – 6.0
Lanark – 5.8
Sterling – 5.5
Shannon – 5.3
Stockton – 5.2
Ridott – 5.0
Schapville – 5.0
Algonquin – 4.8
Winnebago – 4.8
Thomson – 4.6
Erie – 4.5
McHenry – 4.5
Warren – 2.0

Wisconsin
Janesville Airport – 6.9
Edgerton – 6.4
Whitewater – 5.5
Orfordville – 4.3
Lake Geneva – 4.1
Milton – 4.1
Williams Bay – 3.5
Beloit – 3.0
Evansville – 2.5
La Grange – 2.2
 
4:00pm Update: Snow continues to fall across the Stateline. The latest radar still shows pockets of moderate snow from Rockford down into DeKalb, with lighter snow to our west. Snow will slowly lighten through the evening, but increasing winds will cause blowing, drifting, and limited visibilities. A Winter Storm Warning continues through this evening for the entire Stateline due to the snow and wind.





 1:30 pm Update: Back edge of the heaviest snow extends from the Quad Cities northwest to Dubuque, IA with a few light snow showers back in central Iowa.  As low pressure and an inverted trough shift south and east there may be a few rounds of heavier snow that develop across north-central and northeast Illinois until ending by tonight.  So far, snow totals between 5"-7" have fallen and we'll likely pick up another 2"-3" before all said and done.  Winds are already beginning to shift around to the north and will eventually turn north/northwest this evening and increase some in intensity.  Still looks like we could see some blowing and drifting snow through tonight.


Winter Storm Warnings remain in effect through Tuesday night.  Moderate to heavy snow will continue through the remainder of the morning and afternoon.  Within the heavier snow bands snowfall rates of half an inch to one inch per hour are possible.  So far, snow totals between 3"-4" have been reported with overall snow amounts expected to remain between 6"-10".  Winds are also going to increase late this afternoon and evening from the north and northwest which will cause blowing and drifting snow by this evening. 

Storm Reports:

3:02:34 PM) nwsbot: Local Storm Report by NWS LOT: DE Kalb [De Kalb Co, IL] trained spotter reports SNOW of M6.5 INCH at 02:50 PM CST -- storm total through 250 pm. 1.5 inches past 3 hours. moderate snow and quarter mile visiblity.

(2:53:09 PM) nwsbot: Local Storm Report by NWS DVN: 5 NW Lanark [Carroll Co, IL] trained spotter reports SNOW of M5.5 INCH at 02:52 PM CST --

(2:36:21 PM) nwsbot: Local Storm Report by NWS LOT: Roscoe [Winnebago Co, IL] public reports SNOW of M6.1 INCH at 02:18 PM CST -- total so far.

(2:38:32 PM) nwsbot: Local Storm Report by NWS LOT: E Harvard [Mchenry Co, IL] cocorahs reports SNOW of M6.8 INCH at 02:30 PM CST -- storm total so far.

(2:31:05 PM) nwsbot: Local Storm Report by NWS MKX: 1 W Williams BAY [Walworth Co, WI] trained spotter reports SNOW of M3.5 INCH at 02:23 PM CST --

(2:27:59 PM) nwsbot: Local Storm Report by NWS LOT: Loves Park [Winnebago Co, IL] public reports SNOW of M7.0 INCH at 02:05 PM CST -- light to moderate snow continues

(2:25:44 PM) nwsbot: Local Storm Report by NWS DVN: Freeport [Stephenson Co, IL] public reports SNOW of M5.5 INCH at 02:25 PM CST -- snowfall total at lincoln douglas elementary...relayed by media.

(2:24:55 PM) nwsbot: Local Storm Report by NWS LOT: Rockford [Winnebago Co, IL] trained spotter reports SNOW of M7.3 INCH at 02:23 PM CST -- storm total snow thus far. moderate snow still falling.

(2:02:42 PM) nwsbot: Local Storm Report by NWS DVN: 1 WNW Morrison [Whiteside Co, IL] trained spotter reports HEAVY SNOW of M6.5 INCH at 02:01 PM CST -- continuing to snow

(1:39:33 PM) nwsbot: Local Storm Report by NWS LOT: 1 N Huntley [Mchenry Co, IL] cocorahs reports SNOW of M5.0 INCH at 01:30 PM CST -- total so far.

(1:35:42 PM) nwsbot: Local Storm Report by NWS LOT: Roscoe [Winnebago Co, IL] trained spotter reports SNOW of M5.5 INCH at 01:35 PM CST -- total so far.

(1:26:41 PM) nwsbot: Local Storm Report by NWS MKX: Milton [Rock Co, WI] nws employee reports SNOW of M4.1 INCH at 12:45 PM CST -- snowfall total

 (1:07:24 PM) nwsbot: Local Storm Report by NWS MKX: Edgerton [Rock Co, WI] trained spotter reports SNOW of M5.2 INCH at 12:42 PM CST -- storm total

(1:04:58 PM) nwsbot: Local Storm Report by NWS DVN: 3 NNE Stockton [Jo Daviess Co, IL] co-op observer reports SNOW of M5.2 INCH at 01:03 PM CST -- snow continues to fall...visibility at 3/8 of a mile.

(12:43:40 PM) nwsbot: Local Storm Report by NWS MKX: 3 SSE Whitewater [Walworth Co, WI] nws employee reports SNOW of M5.2 INCH at 12:42 PM CST -- snowfall total 

(12:37:13 PM) nwsbot: Local Storm Report by NWS LOT: Mchenry [Mchenry Co, IL] trained spotter reports SNOW of M4.5 INCH at 12:33 PM CST --  

(12:20:43 PM) nwsbot: Local Storm Report by NWS LOT: 4 NE Algonquin [Mchenry Co, IL] cocorahs reports SNOW of M2.7 INCH at 12:00 PM CST --

(12:19:36 PM) nwsbot: Local Storm Report by NWS LOT: Winnebago [Winnebago Co, IL] trained spotter reports SNOW of M4.8 INCH at 12:07 PM CST --

(12:18:33 PM) nwsbot: Local Storm Report by NWS LOT: DE Kalb [Dekalb Co, IL] trained spotter reports SNOW of M5.0 INCH at 12:15 PM CST -- storm total so far

(12:12:53 PM) nwsbot: Local Storm Report by NWS DVN: 5 W Schapville [Jo Daviess Co, IL] trained spotter reports SNOW of M5.0 INCH at 12:00 PM CST -- over the past 4 hours. wind very light.

(12:04:23 PM) nwsbot: Local Storm Report by NWS MKX: 2 S Whitewater [Walworth Co, WI] public reports SNOW of M5.5 INCH at 11:55 AM CST --

(12:06:32 PM) nwsbot: Local Storm Report by NWS LOT: Roscoe [Winnebago Co, IL] trained spotter reports SNOW of M5.0 INCH at 11:40 AM CST --

(12:04:23 PM) nwsbot: Local Storm Report by NWS MKX: 2 S Whitewater [Walworth Co, WI] public reports SNOW of M5.5 INCH at 11:55 AM CST --

(12:02:47 PM) nwsbot: Local Storm Report by NWS LOT: 1 N Huntley [Mchenry Co, IL] cocorahs reports SNOW of M3.5 INCH at 11:45 AM CST --

(12:00:34 PM) nwsbot: Local Storm Report by NWS LOT: Rockford [Winnebago Co, IL] official nws obs reports SNOW of M5.8 INCH at 11:59 AM CST --

(11:59:08 AM) nwsbot: Local Storm Report by NWS LOT: 4 NW Rockford [Winnebago Co, IL] co-op observer reports SNOW of M5.0 INCH at 11:52 AM CST --


(11:50:37 AM) nwsbot: Local Storm Report by NWS DVN: 2 ESE Ridott [Stephenson Co, IL] trained spotter reports SNOW of M5.0 INCH at 11:49 AM CST -- total so far today. still snowing.

(11:39:45 AM) nwsbot: Local Storm Report by NWS DVN: Sterling [Whiteside Co, IL] public reports SNOW of M5.5 INCH at 11:38 AM CST --

(11:25:32 AM) nwsbot: Local Storm Report by NWS MKX: 3 S LA Grange [Walworth Co, WI] trained spotter reports SNOW of M2.2 INCH at 11:24 AM CST -- snow total

(11:21:42 AM) nwsbot: Local Storm Report by NWS LOT: Kirkland [Dekalb Co, IL] trained spotter reports SNOW of E4.3 INCH at 10:30 AM CST --

(11:21:42 AM) nwsbot: Local Storm Report by NWS LOT: N DE Kalb [De Kalb Co, IL] trained spotter reports SNOW of M3.8 INCH at 10:50 AM CST --

(11:21:42 AM) nwsbot: Local Storm Report by NWS LOT: DE Kalb [Dekalb Co, IL] co-op observer reports SNOW of M4.2 INCH at 11:15 AM CST --

(11:14:47 AM) nwsbot: Local Storm Report by NWS LOT: Capron [Boone Co, IL] trained spotter reports SNOW of M3.5 INCH at 11:13 AM CST --

(10:45:11 AM) nwsbot: Local Storm Report by NWS DVN: Stockton [Jo Daviess Co, IL] co-op observer reports SNOW of M4.0 INCH at 10:43 AM CST -- total so far today. an inch an hour. still heavy snow.

(10:22:38 AM) nwsbot: Local Storm Report by NWS MKX: 4 N Lake Geneva [Walworth Co, WI] trained spotter reports SNOW of M2.0 INCH at 10:05 AM CST -- moderate snow falling.

(10:06:22 AM) nwsbot: Local Storm Report by NWS DVN: Freeport [Stephenson Co, IL] trained spotter reports SNOW of M4.5 INCH at 09:49 AM CST -- total so far and still snowing.

(10:07:32 AM) nwsbot: Local Storm Report by NWS LOT: Rockford [Winnebago Co, IL] broadcast media reports SNOW of M3.0 INCH at 10:04 AM CST -- measured at wtvo

(9:53:59 AM) nwsbot: Local Storm Report by NWS MKX: 2 N Beloit [Rock Co, WI] public reports SNOW of E3.0 INCH at 09:40 AM CST

(9:51:10 AM) nwsbot: Local Storm Report by NWS DVN: 7 NNW Mount Carroll [Carroll Co, IL] trained spotter reports SNOW of M2.3 INCH at 09:15 AM CST -- still snowing. via espotter.

(9:45:55 AM) nwsbot: Local Storm Report by NWS DVN: 3 NNE Stockton [Jo Daviess Co, IL] co-op observer reports SNOW of M3.0 INCH at 09:43 AM CST -- total so far. currently heavy snow. water equivalent of snow is 0.29 inches.

(9:13:37 AM) nwsbot: Local Storm Report by NWS MKX: 7 S Orfordville [Rock Co, WI] trained spotter reports SNOW of M4.3 INCH at 09:08 AM CST -- 3 hour total

(9:14:33 AM) nwsbot: Local Storm Report by NWS MKX: Edgerton [Rock Co, WI] trained spotter reports SNOW of M2.7 INCH at 09:13 AM CST -- snowfall total

(9:06:47 AM) nwsbot: Local Storm Report by NWS DVN: 1 WNW Morrison [Whiteside Co, IL] trained spotter reports SNOW of M3.3 INCH at 09:00 AM CST --

(8:54:25 AM) nwsbot: Local Storm Report by NWS DVN: 2 ESE Ridott [Stephenson Co, IL] trained spotter reports SNOW of M3.5 INCH at 08:50 AM CST -- so far today and still snowing.

(8:49:57 AM) nwsbot: Local Storm Report by NWS MKX: Milton [Rock Co, WI] nws employee reports HEAVY SNOW of M1.6 INCH at 08:48 AM CST -- visibility 1/4 mile

(8:44:40 AM) nwsbot: Local Storm Report by NWS DVN: 2 WNW Freeport [Stephenson Co, IL] trained spotter reports SNOW of M2.4 INCH at 08:41 AM CST -- total so far and still snowing.

(8:38:01 AM) nwsbot: Local Storm Report by NWS LOT: DE Kalb [Dekalb Co, IL] trained spotter reports SNOW of M1.5 INCH at 08:30 AM CST -- snow in last hour

(8:23:24 AM) nwsbot: Local Storm Report by NWS MKX: 5 S Evansville [Rock Co, WI] trained spotter reports HEAVY SNOW of M2.5 INCH at 08:09 AM CST -- snowfall over the last 1.5 hours 

(8:18:15 AM) nwsbot: Local Storm Report by NWS DVN: Warren [Jo Daviess Co, IL] trained spotter reports SNOW of E2.0 INCH at 07:48 AM CST -- total for today. via social media. 

(7:15:02 AM) nwsbot: Local Storm Report by NWS LOT: Rockford [Winnebago Co, IL] broadcast media reports SNOW of M1.5 INCH at 07:13 AM CST  

(6:44:05 AM) nwsbot: Local Storm Report by NWS DVN: 3 ENE Rock Falls [Whiteside Co, IL] trained spotter reports SNOW of M2.0 INCH at 06:43 AM CST -- 1.0 inches during the last hour. started 2 hours ago. 

(6:35:53 AM) nwsbot: Local Storm Report by NWS DVN: Freeport [Stephenson Co, IL] trained spotter reports SNOW of M0.9 INCH at 06:34 AM CST --





Snowfall rates near half an inch per hour possible where some of the heavier snow is falling.

7:05 am Update:  Eyewitness News Reporter Mary Jo Ola reporting a few accidents this morning with slide offs and cars going into ditches - many west of Rockford.  Also, there is a traffic signal down near Alpine and Harlem Rd.  Use caution if in that area!  Roads have quickly become snow covered and are slick this morning!







Light to moderate snow continues to fall through northern Illinois and southern Wisconsin this morning with right around an inch accumulating so far.  Visibility has dropped to less than a mile where the more moderate snow has been falling and roads have quickly become snow covered.  Winter Storm Warnings continue for northern Illinois and southern Wisconsin through midnight.  Snow totals will range right around 6" for most with isolated higher amounts to the southwest of the Rockford Metro.

Monday, March 4, 2013

Monday Evening Winter Storm Update

Here's the latest on our next winter storm, which is expected to the be the biggest we've seen so far this winter. 

TIMING: Snow will slowly move in after midnight, but won't start to pick up steam until mid to late morning.

Snow will be at its heaviest during the afternoon. Snowfall rates could be as high as 1-2" an hour during this time. Wind gusts will be around 30mph.

Snow will start to lighten into the evening, with completely dry conditions by Wednesday morning.

IMPACT: Your morning commute could be messy thanks to the snow, especially west of Rockford. The ease of your morning drive depends on how quickly the snow moves in. The evening commute will definitely be impacted, thanks to heavy snow and wind. Blowing and drifting snow will be likely, as well as whiteout conditions. Even with snow lightening into the evening, blowing and drifting snow will continue into the overnight.

TOTALS: This should be the biggest snow we've seen in a few years. We'll call for 6-10" through the day. Models suggest we'll see lesser amounts to the northeast of Rockford. Some isolated spots southwest of Rockford could see up to a foot in accumulation.

Late season winter storm update

1:00pm Update: Dry air remains in place across northern Illinois and southern Wisconsin so the leading edge of warm air that produced snow in Iowa earlier this morning fizzled a little, however, there have been some reports of light snow reaching the surface across Illinois.  Accumulations will remain minor through tonight with the main snow event still arriving after midnight tonight.
 
A Winter Storm Warning remains in effect for all of Southern Wisconsin and Northern Illinois beginning late tonight and lasting through Tuesday night.  Low pressure currently in the Plains will continue to dive southeast into Iowa tonight and south of the Stateline Tuesday.  Snow will begin to fall after midnight tonight (closer to dawn Tuesday for some) and continue through Tuesday night.  Heavy snow looks to begin mid to late morning Tuesday and last through the afternoon/evening commute with the evening commute becoming heavily impacted once the snow begins.  Snowfall amounts between 6"-8" with isolated amounts near 10" still look possible once the snow ends by Wednesday morning; especially if snowfall rates of 1" per hour or more occur.  Winds will increase from the north by Tuesday afternoon with blowing and drifting snow becoming a concern through Tuesday night and even a little Wednesday morning.  Travel by Tuesday afternoon will become very difficult with whiteout and blizzard conditions expected.
 
 
 
 
Dry air in place across northern Illinois and southern Wisconsin will slow the eastward progression of the light snow currently in Iowa.  Temperatures right now are in the low 20s under cloudy skies.  The snow will move in from west to east later this morning and through early afternoon.  Accumulations will remain minor with roughly 1"-2" falling from this initial band.  Looking at this first band as it moves east does show the snow decreasing in coverage some.

Winter Storm Warnings have been issued for all of northern Illinois and southern Wisconsin and these will go into effect late tonight and last throughout the day Tuesday.   Looks like we'll get two rounds of snowfall between now and Wednesday morning.  The first with what's coming today and the second with the main low pressure system.  A strong clipper system will continue to dive southeast out of the Plains this afternoon into Iowa by this evening and just south of the Stateline by Tuesday afternoon.  Snow after midnight tonight will increase in coverage and intensity through Tuesday morning with the heaviest of the snow falling during Tuesday afternoon.  Right now the track of the low places the heaviest snow band across the area from Madison, WI to Rochelle, IL where two day storm totals could reach close to 10".  It's important to note that there's still time for a slight shift in this track, but most should receive close to 6" of snowfall when all said and done.  Also, if there are any showers or storms that develop downstate this will block the Gulf moisture supply feeding into this storm which would cut back on snow totals.

The snow that will initially fall will be a little heavy and wet with low snow to liquid ratios but as colder air wraps into the storm by Tuesday afternoon the snow to liquid ratios will increase and with an increase in wind the snow will begin to blow around and drift over roads through Tuesday night.  Once the snow begins road conditions will quickly deteriorate as heavy snow (snowfall rates near 1"/hr) will be likely.  Morning model runs will come out between 9am and 11am and I'll have another complete analysis on here later today.

Sunday, March 3, 2013

Update On Our Next Winter Storm

Despite it being March, we're still looking at another winter storm starting Monday and really picking up steam Tuesday. Here's the latest...

Our timeline looks like this: Snow begins on Monday, but stays fairly light through the day. A few inches of accumulation will be possible, especially off to our west, before snow starts to build in intensity Monday night. The bulk of our snow will happen on Tuesday.

Models have been very consistent in producing a heavy band of snow in the vicinity of the Stateline. Some scenarios have snow totals up to 10-12" in this band. The problem is we don't know where that band of snow will eventually land. Many model runs Sunday afternoon kept it in southern Wisconsin, but it could still shift south. Assuming the heaviest snow stays north, we could still see accumulations of 6" or more by Tuesday night. Regardless of what happens, we will see accumulating snow Monday into Tuesday and it will cause travel concerns, especially on Tuesday.

Because of the threat for heavy snow, the entire Stateline will be under a Winter Storm Watch for Monday and Tuesday. Jo Daviess County will be under a Winter Weather Advisory starting Monday.

Stay tuned to the blog for the latest on this next winter storm.

Saturday, March 2, 2013

More winter weather on the way - Say it isn't snow!


Apparently the groundhog needs to go back to meteorology school!  After we just wrapped up the 5th snowiest February in Rockford's history, it looks like more winter weather will return to the Plains and Midwest.  Low pressure moving onshore in British Columbia tonight will dive southeast into Montana by Monday and south of the Stateline Tuesday afternoon.  Warm air ahead of the developing low will lift north into northern Illinois and southern Wisconsin with precipitation developing to the south and extending northwest into Iowa and Minnesota.  An east wind during the day Monday should keep the majority of the area dry but as low pressure moves closer Monday night precipitation, mainly snow, will move in and continue into Tuesday.  There remains some question in the exact track of the low as of Saturday evening but it does appear we will all receive snow by Tuesday night - it's just a matter of how much!  With such a dynamic storm system, it's possible some in the Midwest may receive in excess of 6" of snow!  Something we'll track very closely these next couple of days.  The surface low will move through southern Illinois but an inverted trough - or long area of low pressure - will extend northwest from the low into northern Illinois and it appears as if this is where the majority of our snow will come from by Tuesday night.  Winds will also be increasing from the east/northeast Tuesday so any snow that does fall will likely blow around and may drift a little.  There is still some time for the track of this low to shift some which would determine where exactly the snow, and heavy snow, falls.  A Winter Storm Watch has already been issued for northwest Illinois for the counties of Stephenson, Jo Daviess, Carroll and Whiteside.   



3:50pm Update:



A Winter Storm Watch has been issued for Jo Daviess, Stephenson, Carroll and Whiteside counties beginning Monday morning and lasting through Tuesday afternoon.  A complete update right here will be coming out later this afternoon on the potential for another snow storm early next week.  Stay tuned!

Friday, March 1, 2013

Mother Nature not done with the snow just yet

The calendar may say March 1st, but it'll feel anything but that going into the weekend and early next week.  Average high temperatures for the first week of March should be in the low 40s, but we'll be stuck in the upper 20s and low to mid 30s through next Tuesday afternoon.  After a little light snow Friday morning we'll get a break from the wintry weather as high pressure moves into the Midwest this weekend.  It won't last long, however, as another quick moving clipper system swings into the Plains Sunday night and to the south of the Stateline Monday night.  Warm air from the south moving over colder air at the surface will allow for a few light snow showers to develop possibly as early as Monday morning and continue all the way through Tuesday before the low swings into the Ohio River Valley Wednesday.  After that, temperatures will warm going into the end of next week but then look to cool right back down the following week. 

Friday Morning Weather Update: More Snow....

Pesky light snow showers will continue this morning with a north/northeast wind blowing off of Lake Michigan.  While not true lake-effect snow there is an upper level disturbance moving through the western Great Lakes that has allowed the snow to expand a bit in coverage across Southern Wisconsin and Northern Illinois.  A light dusting to maybe a couple tenths of an inch of snow will accumulate before tapering off to flurries this afternoon.  Winds remain breezy from the north between 10-20 mph and I did notice a little snow blowing over east/west roads earlier this morning.  There may be a few slick spots, especially in open and rural areas, on your morning commute.