Flooding still a concern, but levels will go down by the end of the week

Minor to moderate flooding continues along area rivers from the rapid snow melt over the weekend and early this week.  River levels are expected to go down by this weekend, but if you look around you'll notice most are either right at or out of their banks.  Flood Warnings continue for the Kishwaukee River at Belvidere and near Perryville, the Pecatonica River in Freeport and in Green County Wisconsin and the Sugar River in Brodhead through the rest of the week.  

The following two pictures are from Brad Burke.  The first one was taken a few days ago when nearly a foot of snow was on the ground.  The second was taken just yesterday after the heavy rain and snow melt.  This is the Kishwaukee River in Cherry Valley just south of Highway 20. 

Julie Nelson
Freeport, IL

Jeni Hardin
Creston Rd in Creston, IL

Here are some other flooding pictures we've received this week.

 

Become a Severe Storm Spotter

Severe weather season is right around the corner and help get you prepared the National Weather Service will be hosting Storm Spotter Training classes for the next month.  The first was last Thursday at Highland Community College.  The next one will be tomorrow, Thursday, night at 7pm.  This will be held at the Cherry Valley Fire Protection District Blackhawk Station.  The class is free and open to the public.  It's a great way to learn about storm structure, what to look for when spotting storms and what reports are helpful to the National Weather Service.  If you do plan on attending make sure you arrive early as seats fill up fairly quickly!


Click here for a complete list of upcoming classes:
North-Central Illinois Area
Southern Wisconsin Area
Northwest Illinois Area

Slick roads Tuesday morning

A coating of snow overnight has melted on area roads and with temperatures dropping below freezing ice has now formed on the untreated roadways.  There have already been numerous reports of slide-offs and accidents so far this morning.  Please be careful when heading out to work or taking the kids to school as you may encounter black ice. 

Dreary Monday Morning

Dense fog continues this morning but as cooler and drier air moves in the fog will begin to lift slowly by the afternoon.  There are a few light showers north and east of Rockford moving north into Wisconsin this morning but reports of sleet and even freezing rain just to the west as the cooler air moves in.  Drizzle and light showers will persist through the morning with a rain, snow, sleet mix expected for the afternoon.

Flooding Concerns This Week

As advertised, Sunday was a soaker across the Stateline. As we head into the next couple of days, we'll be keeping an eye on minor flooding.

Here's a look at weekend rain totals as of 9:00pm Sunday. Several areas have seen over an inch of rain. Our snow pack before the weekend had a water equivalent of 1-2". While there is still plenty of snow on the ground, our total liquid for the weekend between rainfall and melting snow could easily near 2" for parts of the viewing area.

Combine all that water with a still frozen ground, and we'll be talking minor flooding in low-lying areas and small streams and creeks. Flood Watches and Advisories are in effect the next couple of days to address this.

Marty Kasper - Sycamore

Here's one example of area flooding. Marty Kasper took this shot of a park in Sycamore. If you have any flooding photos, you can send them weather@wtvo.com.





Here are a few storm reports of area rainfall we've received from the National Weather Service:

Morrison: 1.35"
Stockton: 1.23"
Elizabeth: 1.40"
Machesney Park: Service road off Route 251 flooded with about 7" of standing water

Heavy rain and fog on the way

 Rainfall totals as of 10pm - heaviest rain to the west where already almost an inch has fallen near Dubuque and Galena.

 9:15 pm Update: Light to moderate rain beginning to move into northwest Illinois and southern Wisconsin.  Rain will continue to spread northeast through the night.  Heavy rain has already fallen in Iowa with over an inch being reported in places like Cedar Rapids and Belle Plaine.   

 7:00pm Update:

 

Gulf moisture will continue to lift north through the Southern Plains and into the Midwest this evening and overnight.  Heavy rain will move from southwest to northeast through Missouri, Iowa and Wisconsin this evening before spreading east into Northern Illinois later tonight and by dawn Sunday morning.  Rainfall amounts over an inch to an inch and a half will be possible with the bulk of rain coming early Sunday and then possibly again by Sunday afternoon as a secondary low lifts into northwest Illinois.  Light showers and drizzle will persist through Sunday evening until colder air funnels in from the northwest late Sunday night with a change over to slushy snow by mid-day Monday. 

 

With the expected rain tonight and Sunday it's possible minor flooding may occur along streams, creeks and local rivers may rise.  You'll also likely notice standing water in ditches and low lying areas.  The snow depth continues to dwindle away but it still looks like the snow/water equivalent remains between 1"-2".  This means if we were to melt the current snow cover on the ground we would get roughly between half an inch to an inch of water.  Also, the ground remains frozen beneath the snowpack and any heavy rain that does occur will likely runoff rather than infiltrate into the soil.  It's possible that some of the local rivers may approach flood stage by early next week.   

Spring 2013 Flood Outlook

The National Weather Service offices in Davenport and Chicago have both issued a new 2013 Spring Flood & Water Resources Outlook Thursday, March 7th, 2013. The following reasons were given in this new outlook for possible spring flooding:

• The recent snowfall over the past few weeks has called for a slight increase in the risk of flooding for the spring.
• A key factor will be the rate of melt from the existing snowpack and how much precipitation we recieve during the melt period of the snowpack.
• The rate of frost melt beneath the snowpack will also determine the amount of infiltration(process by which water on the ground surface enters the soil) and runoff that will occur.

Image Courtesy of NOHRSC

This image shows us the snow water equivalent of the current snowpack. We have around .5-1.0 inch of water equivalent in the snowpack across the Stateline area currently.


The NWS in Davenport also listed these as the current conditions as of March 7th, 2013:

• Above normal winter precipitation and snow depth.
• Near to below normal soil moisture.
• Deep frost.
• Near to below normal stream levels.

Also, they listed these following things to keep an eye on for potential changes in in the outlook:

• Additional precipitation.
• Frost depth and how it interferes with absorption of snow melt and rainfall.
• Potential for ice jam flooding.

This was the last of two scheduled spring flood and water resources outlooks for the season.

Also in these outlooks were calculated probabilities for minor, moderate, and major flooding of rivers for 3/11/13 to 6/9/13. Here are some of the outlooks for some of the area rivers:

• The Pecatonica River near Freeport has a higher than normal probability of exceeding both minor and moderate flooding levels.
• The Rock River near Como has a higher than normal probability of exceeding all levels of minor, moderate, and major flooding.
• The Kishwaukee River near Belvidere has a higher than normal probability for minor flooding, but lower than normal probability for moderate flooding.

Outlook from NWS in Davenport
Outlook from NWS in Chicago


Eddie Wildermuth
WTVO Weather Intern