Wednesday afternoon weather - Updates will continue throughout the day

A Severe Thunderstorm Warning has been issued Ogle and Lee counties until 4:30pm.  This storm will be capable of producing half dollar sized hail as well as wind gusts near 60 mph.  If you're in the track of this storm please remain indoors.

A PDS (Particularly Dangerous Situation) Tornado Watch has been issued for S. WI and N. IL until 9pm.  A significant severe weather event is likely going to unfold across the Stateline this afternoon.  A deepening low pressure system will track east along a warm front draped across the Wisconsin/Illinois border.  A very warm and very moist air mass should fuel strong thunderstorm updrafts which would support supercell development.  These storm cells are then expected to develop into a line of storms into the evening east of Rockford.  Initial storm threat with the individual storms will be the tornado threat and then turn into a damaging wind event.  Greatest storm threat will be from 4pm-8pm.







The Storm Prediction Center will upgrade parts of Northern Illinois to a high risk for severe weather going into the afternoon and evening for a significant damaging wind threat.  Click here for the discussion. Skies are beginning to clear out west and across the Mississippi River.  A warm front currently remains to the south of Rockford but with a fairly strong (for this time of year) low pressure system expected to move across Iowa this afternoon the front will begin to be pulled north and lie across the Wisconsin/Illinois state line.  A very warm and humid air mass will be lifted north with the front putting us at a high risk for severe storms this afternoon.

Supercell (individual storms) will be likely from early this afternoon near the Mississippi River and north-central Illinois - between 1pm-3pm.  These storms will be capable of producing strong damaging winds and large hail but there will also be an increased tornado threat along the warm front as winds will begin to change a little with height causing those storms to rotate.  These storms will then move near the Rockford Metro mid afternoon before developing into a line of storms this evening with a widespread damaging wind threat as they move east of I-39.

It's extremely important for you to remain alert of the changing weather this afternoon.  Have a way to receive watches and warnings if you're out and be sure to keep checking back for the latest information.  We'll provide another update early this afternoon.

Quick Wednesday morning update

A weakening storm complex will continue to pull slightly north of east this morning.  Right now storms stretch from Decorah, IA to Des Moines, IA.  Severe weather is not anticipated with this complex as it moves through.  The next couple of hours should remain dry but by mid to late morning a few showers/storms will be likely across N. IL and S. WI.
 

A warm front currently lies from just north of the Quad Cites east to Sterling and south of Chicago.  This front will stay south of the Stateline through the majority of the morning until low pressure moves into central Iowa later this afternoon.  Skies are starting off fairly cloudy but instability is expected to build south of the front through the afternoon.  The atmosphere in place across N. IL and S. WI remains a little more stable so as the current cluster of storms runs into the stable air mass they will continue to weaken.  Strong storms are expected later this afternoon and evening.  The Storm Prediction Center (as of 1:30am) has placed Northern Illinois under a moderate risk for severe weather.  A further update on the storms this morning and storms expected this afternoon will be out on the blog later this morning.

Full Breakdown Of Wednesday's Storms

Wednesday is shaping up to be a very active weather day, so I'm going to do a breakdown of what I think is going to happen. Fortunately, the models have been fairly consistent with each other, meaning I can use our Futurecast to time out our various threats throughout the day.

MORNING: An MCS, or Mesoscale Convective System, will be possible Wednesday morning for the northern parts of the viewing area, especially southern Wisconsin. An MCS is just a fancy name for a big blob of storms. These are usually heavy rain and wind producers.

Main Threats: Wind, Heavy Rain
Where: Southern Wisconsin

AFTERNOON: With a warm front firmly in place, showers and thunderstorms are expected to start popping up with the heating of the day. This looks to be our best chance at seeing any tornadic activity, as winds that change direction with height will provide the twist needed for possible tornadoes.

Main Threats: Isolated Tornadoes, Strong Winds, Hail
Where: Tornado threat increases the further south you go. Wind and hail threat for everyone.

EVENING: By this point, the main area of low pressure begins moving through. This means a LOT of rain combined with the continued threat of strong storms.

Main Threats: Flash Flooding, Strong Winds, Hail
Where: The entire Stateline.

Chief Meteorologist Candice King will be in bright and early at 5:00am on WTVO and 7:00am on FOX 39 with the latest on Wednesday's severe weather. Just remember to stay alert to changing weather conditions through the day! -BA

Update On Possible Severe Weather Through Wednesday

As of our 6:00pm newscast, it's all quiet across the Stateline, but we'll be keeping an eye out for potentially severe storms starting later tonight. Here's the latest:

Scattered storms will be possible tonight, especially after midnight. We are under a slight risk for severe weather tonight, with the main threats being strong winds and hail. Storms should stay scattered enough to where flooding won't be a major concern.

Wednesday will be the focal point for severe weather across the Stateline. Storms will start popping up as early as Wednesday afternoon, with more widespread activity likely for Wednesday evening. The Storm Prediction Center has the Stateline under a slight risk for severe weather for Wednesday, but areas to our southeast will be under a moderate risk.

Flash flooding and isolated tornadoes will be possible on top of strong winds and hail for Wednesday. We'll keep you updated throughout the day on WTVO, FOX 39, MyStateline.com, and the blog as severe weather develops. -BA

Viewer Pics From Tuesday Afternoon Storms

We're looking at plenty of severe weather chances over the coming 24 or so hours, but as of Tuesday afternoon, we've already seen a few storms across the Stateline. Storms formed just south of Rockford and moved into DeKalb County, producing small hail and heavy downpours. Here are some viewer photos of this afternoon's storm.

Carol Schneider - Rochelle

Erik - Loves Park

James Butz - Sugar Grove

WTVO Studios - Rockford

John Stevens - Sandy Hollow Golf Course - Rockford

Active weather set to move into the Stateline

As we fall further and further into the spring and summer months thunderstorm complexes known as MCS's (Mesoscale Convective Systems) become more likely.  Simply put, an MCS is a cluster - or complex - of thunderstorms that move through during the overnight and are typically heavy rain and wind producers.  With a ridge of high pressure building across the Plains we'll remain along the outer edge of the ridge leaving us in the prime spot for these storms to move through with the first one affecting us tonight.

Low pressure developing in the central Plains today will push a warm front closer to Northern Illinois this evening.  While most will remain dry this afternoon an isolated thunderstorm or two can't be ruled out.  Of greater concern will be the storms that develop out west across parts of Iowa and Minnesota later today.  Those storms, if they hold together long enough, will follow the flow within the jet stream and move in our direction late tonight/early Wednesday morning.  This complex of storms will likely be in a 'decaying' stage but a few stronger wind gusts and bouts of heavier rain will be possible.  The warm front will remain draped across the Wisconsin/Illinois state line Wednesday afternoon.  A very warm and humid air mass will develop south of the front while a cooler and drier air mass will be in place north of the front.  A strong upper level low will move out of the southern Rockies tonight and lift towards Iowa and Northern Illinois by late afternoon Wednesday.  With an already unstable air mass in place thunderstorms will likely redevelop late Wednesday afternoon and evening.  Severe storms are possible with wind and hail being the primary threats and heavy rain becoming a second concern.  Rainfall amounts of 1"-2" will be possible by Thursday morning.  Northern Illinois and Southern Wisconsin have been placed under a slight risk for later today, tonight and Wednesday.  Once this system passes the weather will turn quiet Thursday and Friday but pick back up Saturday and Sunday.  Be sure to keep up-to-date with the latest forecasts as severe weather is possible Wednesday.

Foggy Weather Invades Chicago

Cooler temps and plenty of moisture along the Lake Michigan shoreline has led to some very thick fog in parts of what is typically the Windy City. The fog is especially causing problems for baseball fans.

This pic comes from the Cincinnati Reds Twitter page. The Reds are playing the Cubs tonight on the North Side.

The South Side were experiencing the same problem. In fact, they delayed the game for about an hour because of the fog. This picture comes from Twitter user @RobDyerS4C.

Looks like this foggy weather could invade the Stateline later tonight, thanks to clear skies and light winds. Fog chances will really pick up after midnight. If you're heading out early Tuesday, stay alert to possible fog and be ready to spend a few extra minutes on the roads. -BA