Christmas travel will likely be impacted across the U.S.

If you plan on traveling this holiday season, you'll want to pay close attention to the forecast.  Even if we don't see too much of an impact locally, a potentially big Christmas storm could have impacts on air and road travel leading up to Christmas.

A series of storm systems will invade the Pacific Northwest through this weekend, but most of those will bypass us to the south.  Late Sunday night, winds will begin to shift around to the southwest allowing temperatures to rise through Monday morning.  At the same time, an approaching cold front will begin to move east out of the Midwest and sweep across the Great Lakes Tuesday.  Ahead of the cold front, a mixture of rain and snow - and possibly freezing rain - could occur Monday and early Tuesday in northern Illinois and southern Wisconsin.  Heavier snow is possible further north into Wisconsin and Minnesota while rain develops further downstate.

By Tuesday, cold air wrapping in behind the cold front could bring a period of light to moderate snow during the afternoon.  This will be occurring at the same time low pressure begins to organize in the far southern Plains and gulf states. 

It's still a week away and many things will change between now and then, but it's important to put this storm system on the radar because it will be coming right before the holidays.  As low pressure moves across the Great Lakes Tuesday, another and stronger low will be developing in the far southern Plains.  This low looks to track northeast into the Ohio River Valley and cause some big headaches out east.  Whether or not we see impacts from this storm depend on where exactly the track takes it.

The European model has the low further west, closer to Illinois, which would have a greater impact on the Stateline with a mix and heavier snow through Christmas Eve night.  The GFS model takes that same low, but slides it further to the east.  We would still receive some snow, but it wouldn't amount to much.  It's still a ways away, but if you have plans on traveling next week you'll want to make sure to keep close tabs on the forecast.  There are still many different variables we have to look at going into next week.  We'll continue with updates, especially as we get close to Christmas.  Right now, the greatest travel impact days are going to be Monday night and potentially Wednesday evening of next week. 

Changing weather pattern could bring snow & cold to the Midwest

If you're worried that we might not see a white Christmas, I wouldn't lose hope just yet.  A changing weather pattern during the last week and a half of December may favor a cooler and more active jet stream pattern through the beginning of 2015.

We won't see much precipitation this week following Monday and Tuesday's rainfall.  High pressure building in late Tuesday will help keep the active branch of the jet stream positioned along the gulf states through the weekend.  A series of low pressure systems moving into the Pacific Northwest will follow the jet stream south and bypass the Great Lakes, especially with high pressure anchored overhead.  While we could come close to a little wintry weather Thursday and Saturday, high pressure overhead should limit how far north those lows move.  And even though temperatures will fall back into the low 30's, we won't be that far off from average highs as the coldest of the air remains bottled north in Canada and the Arctic.

Looking ahead into next week, though, there are some signs that point to a changing weather pattern.  High pressure building in the Pacific will push the jet stream up the west coast and into western Canada.  This in turn will cause a dip, or trough, in the jet stream to develop over the middle of the country.  This will cause the northern branch and southern branch of the jet stream to merge, or work together, and could cook up a couple stronger storm systems before and after Christmas.  It's still too early to tell whether or not these systems will impact northern Illinois and southern Wisconsin, or if we'll see all snow from them.  But it's something to keep in the back of your mind as many will be traveling or finishing up last minute shopping.  We'll keep the updates coming through this week and into the weekend as it looks like there will be some impact of the weather in time for Christmas.

Dreaming of a white Christmas?

Singing: ''I'm dreaming of a white Christmas"

Now that you have that song in your head, let's discuss the probability of seeing a white Christmas.

climate.gov

This map is from the National Climatic Data Center showing historically the areas that have the highest probability of seeing a white Christmas.  Based on data going back to 1981, northern Illinois and southern Wisconsin have roughly a 60% to 70% chance of seeing an inch or more of snow on the ground.

Keep in mind that this map doesn't mean we'll have a 60% to 70% chance of seeing a white Christmas, but rather climatologically the probability of snow on December 25th, and should only be used as a guide.  Actual conditions this year could, and probably will, vary from these probabilities due to current weather patterns.  If you're dreaming of a white Christmas, I wouldn't lose hope just yet.  A changing weather pattern could bring some snow to the Midwest next week.  More on that can be find right here.

Big Changes Coming Tuesday

It has been a mild and gloomy weather pattern across the Stateline the last several days, but winter will soon return to the Stateline.

All of the changes we see on Tuesday will be thanks to an area of low pressure sitting in northern Missouri as of Monday night. On the front side of this low, we will continue to see mild temperatures, rain, and areas of fog.

On the backside of this low, we will see falling temperatures throughout the day Tuesday. Precip chances will also be on the decrease, giving us the chance for a few lingering showers in the morning, a slight chance for a rain/snow mix around midday, and possibly a few snowflakes for the afternoon.

Once our next low passes, expect a cool and quiet pattern for the rest of the week. -BA

Impressive Cloudy Streak for Stateline

The sun has been pretty elusive around the Stateline the last month or so. Now that we finally have some sunshine back in the forecast this week, the National Weather Service in Chicago is putting our cloudy weather in perspective.

From November 1st to December 14th, the weather observation station at the Rockford International Airport has reported cloudy or mostly cloudy skies 80% of the time. That's more than 35 days of cloudy skies.

This past week (Dec. 7-14th) was even worse. Rockford reported cloudy skies a whopping 97% of the time.

At least the forecast is looking much better for everyone who loves the sun. Mostly to partly sunny skies will be in the forecast starting Wednesday and continuing through next week. -BA

Monday morning commute - You'll need the umbrella later today

Fog is an issue once again this morning.  Temperatures currently in the mid 40's will rise close to 50 degrees this afternoon as low pressure lifts out of the central Plains and right overhead tonight.  Ahead of the low warm, southerly winds continue to draw in moisture, but also rain now moving towards the Quad Cities.  As the rain moves in, this will help clear out the fog some through the afternoon.  We'll get a quick dose of rain later this morning with the showers becoming more scattered for the afternoon.  Temperatures will stay mild tonight and Tuesday morning.  With a
few scattered showers to start the day, colder air wrapping in by the afternoon will allow a brief mix with sleet and snow.  No accumulation is expected, but you'll feel the chill as winds increase from the northwest.  Temperatures will fall into the mid-30's by Tuesday afternoon.

Geminid Meteor Shower

The Geminid Meteor Shower is a meteor shower that occurs every year in mid December. This is one of the most active and consistently active meteor showers. If you have good viewing conditions you could see about 50 meteors per hour. Unfortunately for us, the midwest will have poor viewing conditions because of the cloud cover we'll have tonight.

This shower is called the Geminid Meteor shower because the meteors look to originate from the Gemini constellation. The debris field the Earth passes into is from an extinct comet called the 3200
Phaethon. This comet lost it's ice because of too many close trips near the sun. This meteor shower has been seen from Earth since the Civil War in the 19th Century.

Even though we are under poor viewing conditions for the meteor shower you can watch a live stream through NASA.