From Cold To Wind & Snow

Thursday will finally see some changes to our bitterly cold forecast. Unfortunately, they may not be changes for the better.

We will start off Thursday quiet, but extremely cold. A Wind Chill Advisory will stay in effect through Thursday morning for the entire Stateline. Lows to start the morning will be around -13° with wind chills in the -25° to -30° range.

By midday, temperatures should finally be warming above zero. However, the extreme cold will be replaced by our next weather system. Snow and blustery winds will move in for the afternoon and evening before subsiding late Thursday evening.

While we are not expecting much snow Thursday (1-2" in southern Wisconsin... less than 1" for most of northern Illinois), strong wind gusts up to 30mph are expected to create areas of blowing snow and low visibilities for the afternoon and evening commute.

The First Warn Weatherisk will be High in the morning because of the cold and Moderate for the afternoon because of the snow and wind. Make sure to plan ahead and be safe if you're heading out Thursday! -BA

Cold Update

The Wind Chill Warning that was in place for Winnebago, Boone, McHenry, Ogle, Lee and DeKalb counties has been canceled and replaced with a Wind Chill Advisory.  This doesn't mean that it's not cold outside, because it is, but rather the criteria for a Wind Chill Warning may not be met this afternoon and overnight. 

Wind chills to -25° can still be expected this afternoon, but afternoon temperatures have reached zero, or slightly above, in some areas.  Overnight lows are expected to drop below -10° tonight and wind chills will likely for a time overnight reach near -30°, so it's important to remember to dress appropriately for the weather.  The bitter cold will last through Friday night.

Here's a look at current temperatures as of 11:30am

Why Wind Chills Are So Dangerous

When wind chills drop to the levels we are going to see Tuesday night and Wednesday, we refer to them are "dangerous". But what makes wind chills life threatening?

Here's the wind chill forecast for Tuesday night, Wednesday, and Wednesday night. For the most part, wind chills will stay in the -25° to -35° range during those 36 hours.

With feel-like temperatures that cold, frostbite can set in as quickly as 10-15 minutes. Frostbite is when your skin and underlying body tissue freezes. Frostbite can lead to amputation or even death if not treated right away.



If you're looking for a generic way to determine how fast frostbite can develop, check out this graph from the National Weather Service. You can also check out a frostbite calculator here. -BA

Dangerous cold following Monday night snowfall

Other than a few flurries or scattered light snow showers, the snow is done.  Skies will remain partly cloudy through the afternoon with temperatures climbing right around 10 degrees.  Wind chills through the afternoon will be down to -12° at it's coldest point.

Roads are still going to be an issue this morning despite the snow ending.  Many highways and local/county roads are still reporting at least 50 percent snow/ice covered, so just make sure you allow extra time this morning.  The snow & ice will be hard to remove with the cold air in place so expect slick roads for the next couple of days.  Winds will also be increasing through the afternoon and overnight which will cause the snow to blow and drift through Wednesday night.

Let's first tackle the wind for today and tomorrow.  Winds are fairly calm to about 10 mph this morning.  This isn't going to do much in regards to blowing snow.  Winds will increase around 11am/Noon today from the west gusting to 20 mph with the greatest impact to north/south roads.  By this evening, the wind will increase but shift around to the northwest.  Wind gusts will top out near 30 mph impacting north/south, but also east/west roads into Wednesday morning.  The light nature of the snow will allow it to move across roads and drift, even with only 3" of snow.  Roads will remain slick into the morning.

Now, the cold.  We are looking at over a 24 hour period where wind chills values will remain under -20°!  Dangerous and life-threatening cold will occur tonight and Wednesday so plan accordingly.  Wind chills tonight will drop down to -35° and not 'warm' much through the afternoon on Wednesday.  Readings as cold as -30° will be possibly during Wednesday afternoon.  This means frostbite can happen within a matter of 15 minutes if skin is exposed or you're outside for any prolonged amount of time and not properly dressed. 

Wind Chill Warnings have been issued for northern Illinois beginning tonight and a Wind Chill Advisory has been issued for southern Wisconsin.  High temperatures Wednesday will struggle to break 0 degrees and will fall below -14° by Thursday morning.  By Thursday morning, the winds will have backed off a bit, but when it's that cold it doesn't take much of a wind to produce -30° wind chills.

Monday Night Snowfall Update

Updated snowfall totals from Monday night:

 

Illinois Road Conditions:

http://wrc.gettingaroundillinois.com/pages/wrc.htm

Wisconsin Road Conditions:

http://www.511wi.gov/web/

Iowa Road Conditions:

http://lb.511ia.org/ialb/ 

10:30pm Update: We are starting to see a light at the end of the tunnel, so to speak. Snow is letting up in north central Iowa and we are looking dry after midnight, probably 2:00 or 3:00am.

10:10pm Update:

Updated Snow Totals:

Rock Falls (Whiteside Co) - 3.0"

Sterling - 2.8"
DeKalb - 2.3"

Dixon - 2.0" (From Weather Watcher Nancy Burnett)

Lena - 2.0" (From Weather Watcher Cathy Stevens)

Somonauk (DeKalb Co) - 1.8"

Franklin Grove (Lee Co) - 1.75"
Stockton - 1.7"
Huntley - 1.5"
Crystal Lake - 1.3"

Freeport - 1.2"
Polo - 1.1"
Marengo - 1.0"

WTVO Studios - 1.0"

9:30pm Update: Jo Daviess and Carroll counties have been downgraded to a Winter Weather Advisory for the rest of the night as heavier snow continues to push south.

Snow totals for Jo Daviess and Carroll not expected to change overnight. Still looking at 3-5" by morning.

9:00pm Update: The 9:00pm road update is not a good one. Almost all Stateline roads are snow-covered. Be extra careful if driving tonight.

7:55pm Update: Reports of slick roads and people sliding through stoplights a mile west of IL-47 near Huntley. Less than 1" accumulation so far.

7:30pm Update: Snow has now overtaken the entire Stateline. Snow is expected to be heavy at times as it continues through the early overnight. Snow should be done by 2:00 or 3:00am. Take extra precautions if you need to drive anytime Monday night.

A Winter Weather Advisory continues for most of the Stateline until 6:00am Tuesday. A Winter Storm Warning continues for Jo Daviess, Carroll, and Whiteside counties until 6:00am, as well. Areas in the Winter Storm Warning are expected to see the highest snow totals Monday night.

As for the forecast, snow will range from just a few inches to our northeast to potentially over half a foot in parts of Whiteside county.





If you have any road reports, snowfall totals, or pictures, we would love to see them! Please e-mail us at weather@wtvo.com.

Biggest snow of the season for some set to move in Monday night

12:30pm Update: Latest discussion regarding heavy snow that looks to set up just to the west of the immediate Stateline later this afternoon and evening.  Current forecast still looks on track with higher snowfall totals southwest of Rockford.  Onset time of snow still looks on track...between 4pm and 6pm from Freeport on west and between 6pm and 8pm east.

Click here to read the latest discussion regarding the heavy snow.



After coming off of the 5th least snowiest December on record in Rockford, Mother Nature has a different plan in mind for the first full week of January.  Snowfall over the weekend ranged anywhere between 1" to 3" and it looks like we'll be doubling that by Tuesday morning.

A Winter Storm Warning remains in effect for Stephenson, Jo Daviess, Carroll and Whiteside counties beginning at 6pm this evening.

A Winter Weather Advisory has been issued for Winnebago, Boone, McHenry, Ogle, Lee, DeKalb, Green, Rock and Walworth counties beginning at 6pm this evening.

A fast moving, but strong, Alberta clipper will dive south out of the northern Rockies this morning and nearly overhead the Stateline this evening and overnight.  The snow will come quick this evening and then be done with by Tuesday morning.  Snow to liquid ratios, the amount of moisture within the snow, will be high, meaning once the snow falls it will accumulate fairly quickly.   An average snow to liquid ratio is 10:1.  Meaning 10" of snow is the equivalent (when melted) to one inch of water.  Ratios closer to 8:1 mean the snow has more weight, it's a heavier and wet snow, and is usually called 'heart-attack' snow because it's tough to shovel.  Once you get into ratios that are close to 15 to 20:1, the snow is drier and has more fluff to it.  That's when you can get those higher snow totals.  Also, if the growth zone within the atmosphere for snow is just right, usually around -15°C, then snowfall rates and totals can be enhanced.  It looks like we'll be very near that going into the afternoon and evening as the clipper moves through.  Because of that, snowfall totals near 6" are not out of question, especially for areas along and south of Highway 20, including cities like Elizabeth, Stockton, Lena, Pearl City, German Valley, Shannon, Byron, Polo, Mt. Morris, Amboy and Paw Paw.

North of the border, snowfall totals will likely be close to 3" to 4".  This includes areas such as Monroe, Brodhead, Janesville and Sharon.  Some locations could locally receive 5". 

Once the snow begins, the roads will quickly become snow covered and tough to travel.  Temperatures will be in the low single digits as the snow falls which means salt will be less effective.  Winds will be light during the duration of the snow through Tuesday morning, but then increase by Tuesday afternoon.  Blowing and drifting snow will be possible through Tuesday night.  Following the snow, temperatures will drop to the coldest we've felt all season!  Wind chills by Wednesday morning could be as cold as -30°.  Temperatures through the day will struggle to break 0°.

Snowfall Totals through Monday

With more snow on the way for the Stateline, here is an update lists of snow totals from earlier today.

2.9" Janesville, WI (Rock)
2.6" Rockford Airport (Winnebago)
2.5" Belvidere, IL (Boone) Via Weather Watcher Tony
2.4" Mount Carroll, IL (Carroll)
2.3" Dixon,IL (Lee)
2.0" Lena, IL ( Jo Daviess) Via Weather Watcher Cathy
2.0" Freeport, IL (Stephenson)
2.0" Capron, IL (Boone)
1.3" Elizabeth, IL (Jo Daviess)