Lacking the snow: Where we stand so far this winter season

After coming off of the 5th least snowiest December on record in Rockford, we are in need of snow.  And so far for the month of January, it's added up to a little more than 7", but we could still use more.  Looking at the winter season as a whole since December 1st, we're running far behind.  Since December 1st, we've received only 7.2" of snow.  This puts us 10.5" below our winter average!  A far cry from where we were this time last year. 

Light snow will move in tonight behind a wintry mix of rain, freezing rain and snow later this afternoon and evening.  Accumulations won't be much, up to an inch in some spots, and the snow will be more wet than dry with temperatures right around 30° tonight and Wednesday.  After that, the next chance for snow arrives Sunday, but could bypass us to the west in Iowa.

Clipper System Bringing Multiple Snow Chances to the Stateline.

A clipper system approaching the Stateline will bring multiple chances for snow through Wednesday evening. Ahead of the system a light rain/snow mix is already firing up along the Stateline. Temperatures falling near and below freezing and with a strong short wave passing through overnight, we will hold onto the chance for the light rain and then the chance for freezing rain and flurries overnight. It will be light and scattered but still use caution while driving tonight. As the low pressure sinks through the Stateline Tuesday morning along with another wave of energy there will be a continued chance for a light snow mix in the morning. But the better chance for the snow will be later in the day on Tuesday and especially in the evening through Wednesday morning. We aren't talking about a lot of accumulations, but an inch to an inch and a half is expected through Wednesday night. The snow will taper off to flurries by later Wednesday. High pressure builds into the plains Thursday behind a cold front that shifts winds to the northeast allowing for the drying to occur. We end Friday dry with temperatures in the mid 30s.

2014 Warmest Year on Record

It's official, 2014 has been named the warmest year on record, with records beginning in 1880 based on a study done by NASA and the National Oceanic and Atmospheric Association (NOAA). The global temperature in 2014 was 1.24°F higher than the 20th century average. The global temperature is the average between ocean and land temperatures. Average global land temperatures were 1.80°F above the 20th century average, making it the 4th warmest on record. Average global sea temperatures were 1.03°F above the 20th century average making it the record warmest since 1880. While 1° doesn't sound like a big difference, it is in terms of a global average. When you think about how big the planet is, it takes a lot of energy to move the global average up or down, it also takes more energy to change the temperature of the ocean compared to land.

The global average has been trending upwards since 1880, despite year-to-year fluctuations. Large scale weather patterns and events like El Nino and La Nina will have an effect on that year's average. While El Nino is a pattern that warms the tropics, 2014 was actually an El Nino neutral year.

You also might remember how cold last year was for us in the Midwest, it was also unusually cool for the East Coast; but places like the West Coast and Alaska experienced their warmest years on record. That is because regional differences are affected by weather dynamics and not so much the global mean. So while it was a frigid winter for us and a fairly mild summer, many other places had to deal with the heat.

Climate dynamics is very complex and there are a lot of variables that go into regional and global patterns and warming trends. To read more about 2014 you can visit NASA's website or NOAA's.

Half Way There!

Today marks the point of half way through meteorlogical winter! Its starts December first and lasts through February. With temperatures reaching the mid 30s for some of us today, and plently of sun, it even felt a little like spring. Good news is temepratures will be even warmer on Satuday afternoon. A warm front will move in from the southwest late Friday and into early Saturday. Temperatures will warm into the mid and upper 30s, with some hitting the 40 degree mark. Unfortunately, the warmth doesn't last long. A cold front swings through Saturday evening and that will drop temperatures into the lower 30s for Sunday, and it will also bring a slight chance of snow.

But comparing this winter to last winter through this time, we've had more warm days this winter. We haven't seen any negative high temperatures yet, like we did last year. We also haven't spent as many days in the 20's, and saw more 30's this winter. Looking ahead to the one and three month outlook, we currenly have a 50/50 shot of seeing either above or below temperatures.

Pacific air to bring warmer temps this weekend

Starting below, but ending above.  Temperatures will continue to rise above average into the start of the weekend where highs Saturday will reach the upper 30's in northern Illinois, but in the 40's just a little further downstate!

Mild air will flow from the Pacific Ocean as jet stream winds shift more from the northwest to the west.  This shuts off the cold air flow from the Arctic as the polar jet retreats back north.  The warmer pattern doesn't stick around, however, as it looks like we'll be back with the cold as early as next week.  But for now, just enjoy the rising temperatures.

Wednesday Winter Wonderland

Freezing fog overnight Tuesday led to a wintry scene across the Stateline Wednesday morning. The dense fog is done, but it left behind a very frosty landscape.

If you have any photos you'd like to share, please email them to weather@wtvo.com.

Illinois Snow Sculpting Competition Kicks off Today

The 29th annual Illinois Snow Sculpting Competition kicks off in Rockford at Sinnissippi Park this morning at 7am as teams all throughout Illinois compete for a spot in the U.S. Nationals Snow Sculpting Competition next year.

The competition runs through the end of the week with judging taking place on Saturday.  Temperatures will steadily be on the rise through the start of the weekend, but until then, temperatures will remain below freezing.

At kickoff today, skies will be cloudy and you'll even see some light snow/flurries through mid-morning.  Winds will be light throughout the afternoon with temperatures rising into the upper teens.

For more on the snow sculpting competition and hours to enjoy the work, click here to visit the Illinois Snow Sculpting Competition website.