Long Awaited Warmth on the Way for the Stateline

Overall this winter hasn't been extremely cold, but we've had our bitter cold days and sub zero chills along with quite a few snowy days, but we get a taste of spring this weekend. Temperatures this weekend will warm quite a bit above normal for this time of year. A thermal ridge, that is currently bringing quite the heat wave to L.A. this February will slide eastward into the Midwest Thursday into Friday. This, combined with strong southerly winds will bring a spring like feel this weekend. Temperatures will climb to the mid 50's Friday afternoon and then stay in the mid 40's over the weekend. While temperatures will fall again heading into next week, lets enjoy the unseasonable warmth! But how much warmer are we?

The average temperature this time of year is between 35-37° and with Friday pushing the mid 50's, that will bring temperatures about 20 degree above normal! Not too bad when you think that we're in the middle of February. Temperatures into next week however, will return to more seasonable levels.

Late Week Warmth Will Come With A Lot of Wind

This time of year it's hard to get a big warm up without a lot of wind.  And that's exactly what we'll get Thursday and Friday.  Strong low pressure developing in the Plains Wednesday night and Thursday will pull an unseasonably warm air mass northward into the central Plains.  That warmth will then spread eastward Thursday night and Friday, warming temperatures into the 50's for Friday in Northern Illinois.  And the 60's probably won't be that far away!

But with the strengthening low over the Plains and strong high pressure in the southeast, winds will increase significantly from the south and then southwest with gusts close to 40 mph during the day Friday.

Winds should ease a little heading into the weekend, but we'll hold on to the warmth with highs holding right around 50 degrees Saturday and low to mid 40's Sunday.

Ice Safety: Know When It's Safe to Venture Out on the Ice

With the recent stories in the news about cars sinking into Lake Geneva at a winter festival and two snowmobilers falling through the ice on Lake Geneva because they ran into open water, one of whom actually passed away, it's important to know when the ice may be safe enough to venture out on.

Typically during the winter season, frozen lakes are safe to ride a snowmobile over or go ice fishing on.  However, this winter has been fairly mild when compared to past winters and we just haven't had a long enough cold spell to keep the ice frozen and thick enough, long enough, to make it safe to travel on.

As a general rule of thumb if the ice is less than four inches thick, it's not safe to be on.  Less than two inches thick, don't even think about stepping foot on the ice.  A minimum of four inches is okay for ice fishing, five inches for riding an ATV or snowmobile.  Eight to twelve inch thick ice typically supports a small car and ice up to a foot and a half thick can support a medium sized pick up.  It's important to remember that these numbers are guidelines for minimum ice thickness and only for new, clear ice.  Many other factors other than ice thickness can affect the safety of ice.  So before you decide to head out on the ice, make sure you know just how thick the ice is and what the weather conditions have been leading up to that time.

Freezing Fog Leads to Frosty Scenes Monday Morning

Freezing fog Monday morning left quite a bit of frost on Stateline trees.  This frost, known as 'Hoar Frost' forms when water molecules come into contract with a subfreezing surface, such as blades of grass, tree branches or a fence.  When this occurs, the water molecules go from a gas state to a solid state very quickly.  This is known as deposition.

In order to get any frost to develop, you need moisture in the atmosphere.  Late Sunday night into Monday morning fog developed as moisture became trapped in the lower levels of the atmosphere.  Since temperatures were roughly ten degrees below freezing (32 degrees), freezing fog developed.  At least one or more nights of freezing fog is a perfect recipe for the development of hoar frost.

Conditions may be very similar Monday night so the possibility of not only dense fog to develop, but freezing fog, is there as well.  Be on the look out on the roads Tuesday morning, but also for those frosty trees!

Big Warm Up Coming Soon!

After a very cold and snowy holiday weekend, we'll see a weather 180 by the end of the week.

An upper level ridge builds across the Midwest Thursday into Friday. This allows for southerly flow across the area which will draw up the warmer air.  Temperatures will warm into the upper 30's and low 40's for your Thursday afternoon. Temperatures will continue to rise overnight, after briefly falling. As warmer air continues to be brought into northern Illinois and southern Wisconsin temperatures making it into the mid 50's will be widespread, and its possible to see 60° a little farther southeast. Weak cold front will pass through mid Friday unfortunately so it will be harder for the Stateline to see 60°. Temperatures will then take a dip into the weekend, but it will still be pleasant, with highs forecast to reach to mid 40's for Saturday and right around 40° for Sunday.

With the front on Friday, there is some moisture available, so we could see some lighter rain though most of it will stay a little farther north of us. Temperatures then look to cool a bit more into the start of next week.

Sunday Snow Update

9:00pm Update: The Winter Weather Advisory for Green, Rock, Jo Daviess, Stephenson, Carroll and Whiteside counties has been canceled as the snow is coming to an end.  There will continue to be a few flurries here and there over Northern Illinois and Southern Wisconsin, however, freezing drizzle has been reported in Iowa near Cedar Rapids and the flurries tonight could mix with light freezing drizzle into Monday morning.  Untreated roads will be slick and potentially icy so continue to use caution Monday morning.


SNOW TOTALS:

(10:24:08 PM) nwsbot: Local Storm Report by NWS LOT: 5 NW Polo [Ogle Co, IL] co-op observer reports SNOW of M2.7 INCH at 10:00 PM CST -- liquid equivalent 0.21 inch.

(9:52:32 PM) nwsbot: Local Storm Report by NWS MKX: W Janesville [Rock Co, WI] public reports SNOW of M2.4 INCH at 09:52 PM CST --

(7:53:55 PM) nwsbot: Local Storm Report by NWS LOT: Woodstock [Mchenry Co, IL] trained spotter reports SNOW of M2.5 INCH at 07:50 PM CST -- supplemental coop. 0.11 liquid equivalent.

(8:06:04 PM) nwsbot: Local Storm Report by NWS LOT: Cherry Valley [Winnebago Co, IL] trained spotter reports SNOW of M2.8 INCH at 07:00 PM CST -- relayed via facebook.

(6:49:48 PM) nwsbot: Local Storm Report by NWS MKX: Afton [Rock Co, WI] trained spotter reports SNOW of M3.0 INCH at 06:49 PM CST --

(6:18:16 PM) nwsbot: Local Storm Report by NWS DVN: 2 N Sterling [Whiteside Co, IL] trained spotter reports SNOW of M2.0 INCH at 04:00 PM CST -- duration 12 hours. 2 inches storm total so far. light snow falling.

(6:08:08 PM) nwsbot: Local Storm Report by NWS LOT: Rockford Airport [Winnebago Co, IL] official nws obs reports SNOW of M1.9 INCH at 05:50 PM CST -- 0.11 liquid

(5:20:57 PM) nwsbot: Local Storm Report by NWS LOT: 5 WSW Dixon [Lee Co, IL] cocorahs reports SNOW of M2.6 INCH at 05:05 PM CST --

5:04:15 PM) nwsbot: Local Storm Report by NWS LOT: Mount Morris [Ogle Co, IL] broadcast media reports SNOW of E3.0 INCH at 04:45 PM CST

(5:04:15 PM) nwsbot: Local Storm Report by NWS LOT: Machesney Park [Winnebago Co, IL] broadcast media reports SNOW of E3.0 INCH at 04:45 PM CST

(5:04:16 PM) nwsbot: Local Storm Report by NWS LOT: Rockton [Winnebago Co, IL] broadcast media reports SNOW of E3.5 INCH at 04:45 PM CST

(5:04:16 PM) nwsbot: Local Storm Report by NWS LOT: Rockford [Winnebago Co, IL] broadcast media reports SNOW of M3.0 INCH at 04:45 PM CST

(4:37:17 PM) nwsbot: Local Storm Report by NWS LOT: Capron [Boone Co, IL] cocorahs reports SNOW of M1.0 INCH at 04:00 PM CST --

(5:47:05 PM) nwsbot: Local Storm Report by NWS DVN: 1 ESE Nora [Jo Daviess Co, IL] trained spotter reports SNOW of E3.5 INCH at 05:09 PM CST -- storm total. some drifting snow.

(5:47:05 PM) nwsbot: Local Storm Report by NWS DVN: Freeport [Stephenson Co, IL] public reports SNOW of M4.5 INCH at 04:55 PM CST -- storm total.

(5:00:03 PM) nwsbot: Local Storm Report by NWS MKX: 7 NW Janesville [Rock Co, WI] public reports SNOW of M2.0 INCH at 04:59 PM CST --

Moderate snow continues to fly Sunday afternoon with most reporting 1" to 2", isolated 3" totals, so far.  The snow has dropped visibility down to less than half a mile over Northern Illinois and Southern Wisconsin under the more moderate snow bands.

Roads remain snow covered and slick with temperatures holding steady in the upper teens.  Southeast winds should diminish a little into the evening, but blowing and minor drifting will continue in open areas until sunset.

Once the low moves away from Northern Illinois the steady snow should slowly come to an end.  This looks to be around 7pm.  However, moisture remains in the lowest level of the atmosphere so flurries or even freezing drizzle will continue until roughly Midnight.

The Winter Weather Advisory remains in place in through Sunday evening for most of Northern Illinois and Southern Wisconsin. 

Please feel free to pass along any weather updates from your back yard: weather@wtvo.com

A White Valentine's Day in Store

Instead of pink and red, we will be seeing a white Valentine's Day this year courtesy of a storm system currently getting its act together in the Northern Plains and Upper Midwest. Our current radar as of 8 PM shows a band of snow already stretching from Souix Falls, South Dakota to Des Moines, Iowa to Southern Illinois. The atmosphere is still relatively dry over the Stateline, which is why the clouds are having a tough time moving into the region. However, as we head through the night and into Sunday morning, the atmosphere will slowly saturate. As a result, clouds will thicken tonight and light snow showers are possible as early as 4-6 AM Sunday morning.

The bulk of the snow will fall from late morning into early evening. During this time, the snow will be light to moderate at times, and it should be falling at a relatively constant rate. With winds picking up during the day, blowing snow and reduced visibility could be an issue at times.

A Winter Weather Advisory is in effect for DeKalb, Winnebago, Boone, Lee, and Ogle Counties from 9 AM to midnight Sunday. The advisory is in effect for Rock and Green Counties from 6 AM until 9 PM. The advisory is effective for Jo Daviess, Carroll, Whiteside, and Stephenson Counties from 3 AM to 6 PM Sunday. The reason behind the differing times is due to when the snow is expected to move in and move out.

In terms of accumulations, models are in pretty good agreement with a general 2-4" across much of the viewing area. However, with the snow expected to fluffy and light, totals could be more in the 3-5" range, especially to the south and west of Rockford. Areas to the east, such as McHenry, Walworth and Belvidere could see 1-3" with 4" not impossible.