A Near Miss Next Week

We haven't seen a significant winter storm in 2016, and that doesn't appear likely to change. However, it will come ever so close to changing during the middle part of next week. A low pressure system will form down in Texas and then move northeastward towards the Ohio Valley, strengthening as it does. This track shown at the left is the average of all of the models. In other words, this track is the most likely track that the low will take. And, if this comes to fruition, the snow and wintry precipitation will stay well to our east, possibly getting as close as Indiana.

 While unlikely at this time, it is possible that the system takes a track a little further northwest. This track would send the low through Indiana. As a result, the area of wintry weather and snow would be very close to the Stateline, if not including the Stateline. This track isn't likely, but it is something that needs to be monitored because the meteorological setup next week is very complicated and dynamic. Therefore, things can and will change. Now does that mean the track of the low will change drastically? Not necessarily. The other important aspect of the unlikely track is the fact that these strong, southern lows tend to shift northwestward over time, climatologically speaking. If this were to happen in this scenario, we could be dealing with some snow Tuesday or Wednesday of next week.

This storm is one of the weather headlines for the next seven days. We will likely see a mainly dry week next week with temperatures in the 30's and 40's. A few upper 20's cannot be ruled out either next week, especially on Thursday and Friday. There will be several slim chances of seeing some very light rain or snow showers throughout the week, but nothing significant is expected at this time.

A Split Weekend on the Way

Beautiful weather is on its way to begin the weekend. And boy, after the wind storm we had today, I think we deserve a nice, calm day in the Stateline. In fact, we had winds gust upwards of 62 MPH in Nora and 61 MPH at the Rockford International Airport. Those speeds are not far off from weak EF-0 tornado wind speeds! The winds are dying down and will continue to do so tonight and Saturday. Gusts upwards of 15 MPH are possible on Saturday, but that should be the worst we see. Other than that, expect highs in the middle 50's under mostly sunny skies. That will be a far cry from the high of 19° and low of -10° we had on this date last year.

Low temperatures on Saturday night may only fall to around the freezing mark, which is close to our average high for this time of year! Clouds will be on the increase ahead of a weak system that will remain to our south converging with a weak cold front that will move into the region from the north. The combination of those systems will give us substantial cloud cover on Sunday with an outside chance of showers or snow flurries. It will also bring cooler temperatures with highs in the lower 40's. Any precipitation we squeeze out will be very light and will have minimal impact.

It isn't too often we see 50's in February. We haven't seen 50° in February in a few years. Therefore, I encourage you to get out and enjoy Saturday, especially because looking ahead, it may be awhile before the 50's return to the Stateline.

Stateline High Wind Warning

A High Wind Warning has replaced the Wind Advisory for the entire Stateline area. The warning will continue through 6pm tonight with wind gusts as high as 60mph. Sustained winds from the SW at 25-45mph today, and winds will then shift to the west this afternoon. Use caution while driving this afternoon.

Current Wind Gusts as of 11:20am Friday.

Record Breaking Warmth today?

The Spring-like weather is finally here! High temperatures today will warm to 60° across portions of the Stateline today. We get a boost of warmth because of the strong southwesterly winds we will see today. Winds will be sustained from 20-40mph today and winds will gust at 45-55mph this afternoon. Because of the strong winds a Wind Advisory is in effect until 6pm Friday. We will see lots of sunshine through the afternoon today as well, helping with the spring-like feel.

The last time we saw the 50's in February was in 2013. The record warmest Rockford has seen on this day was 63° in 1930! Enjoy it today, temperatures fall into the 50's on Saturday and then the 40's on Sunday. We return back to more seasonable levels next week.

Wind Advisory Friday

No doubt the winds have been strong Thursday, but peak wind gusts Friday could reach 50 mph late morning and early afternoon.

And because of that a Wind Advisory has been issued for Northern Illinois and Southern Wisconsin beginning Friday morning and lasting until Friday afternoon.  Sustained winds 25-35 mph from the west/southwest will gust between 40-45 mph Friday.

Winds will ease a little by Friday evening, but still remain gusty into Saturday.  Temperatures Saturday will warm into the low 50's as well.

Movin' on up! Waking up to Mild Temperatures Friday Morning

I'm sure you've heard about this many times this week, but a spring-like warm up is on the way! You'll even feel the difference overnight; instead of temperatures falling, they will rise overnight into Friday morning. You'll be waking up to temperatures in the upper 40's by Friday morning! You could get away with a light jacket or wind breaker for Friday afternoon, because the warmth comes with quite a bit of wind.

Winds will gust near 45mph Friday afternoon, with peak wind gusts arriving in the early afternoon from the WSW. Sustained winds near 20mph will also be felt through the day. If winds look to gust that high through Friday we could see a Wind Advisory be issued. A Wind Advisory is needed when winds are sustained from 31 to 39 mph and/or wind gusts of 46 to 57 mph for three hours or more

Hip! Hip! Hooray! Spring is on the Way!

Well, sort of.   But hey, we'll take what we can get!

Look at how warm temperatures are over the Plains Wednesday evening.  Just by looking at the map, you can clearly tell where the warm front is!  The warmth out west overspreads the Midwest Thursday and then moves into the Great Lakes Friday.

With 50's expected for both Friday AND Saturday, Mother Nature will be teasing us with a little taste of spring.  And with the past 8 days, 9 including Wednesday, either at or below freezing, the upcoming warmth is definitely welcomed!

So get out and enjoy it!