Wednesday Evening Sunset

Wednesday evening sunset
Phil Frey

Wednesday evening sunset
Woody Mott

Wednesday evening sunset
Monica Hendricks - Dixon

Hopefully you were able to take advantage of the beautiful sunset Wednesday evening.  Thank you to Woody and Phil for sharing their pictures.  If you have any weather photos you'd like to share, email them to: weather@wtvo.com

Record Warm Winter

It was a warm and wet winter (Meteorological winter: December - February) across the United States. A strong El Nino fueled that, bringing the average temperature during the time 4.6° above the 20th century average, which is a new record according to NOAA. Winter precip for the contiguous U.S. was also up, 1.26 inches above the 20th century average, making it the 12th wettest winter on record.

For February the average temperatures were 5.7° above the average for
the U.S, making it the 7th warmest. Illinois also ended up warmer, but drier for the month.

It's Been A Long Time....

...Since temperatures reached 70 degrees this early in the year.  Highs Tuesday topped out in the upper 60's and low 70's, with Rockford reaching 71 degrees - nearly 30 degrees ABOVE average!

Temperatures in the 60's and 70's in March aren't uncommon, it's happened before.  But it's not very common.  The last time the temperature reached 70 degrees this early in the year was 16 years ago!  February 25th, 2000 the high in Rockford was 70 degrees.  Since then, we haven't had a 70 degree day this early.  On average, we typically hit 70 degrees around the 1st or 2nd of April.  So we were a few weeks ahead of schedule Tuesday afternoon.

Mild but Wet Week Ahead

It feels like Spring has sprung in the Stateline this week with temperatures in the 50's and 60's! Temperatures on your Tuesday forecast to make it into the mid and upper 60's! But with the warmth does come multiple rain chances.

Upper level flow or the jet stream is oriented to the southwest and is overhead the Midwest, this helps to draw the warmth and moisture from the south into the Midwest. This, along with a cold front in western Iowa will steadily bring more moisture into the area.

This morning with the cold front oriented in western Iowa, the greatest lift and moisture will be situated in central and eastern Iowa as well as far western Illinois. This morning the entire area will have a chance for showers, however areas west of Rockford are more likely to see the rain. Now with a lack of lift into the afternoon, we will dry out for most of the afternoon. As the cold front approaches from the west tonight, rain will move back in, and we might even hear a few rumbles of thunder. The cold front will then stall south of I-80 into Thursday morning.

There will be a break from the rain for the afternoon on Wednesday and then once again the rain returns Wednesday night into Thursday morning. Rain totals look to be between .25-1" through the end of the week.

High pressure will build in Friday and we will see more sunshine with highs in the mid 50's.

Warm, but Wet, Pattern Sticks Around Through the Middle of March

This past weekend we woke up to almost an inch of snow on the ground Saturday morning, but by Saturday afternoon the snow was pretty much gone with temperatures climbing into the low 40's.  Any little bit of snow that might have been left Sunday was definitely gone with a gusty south wind and highs in the low 50's.

The chance for snow this upcoming week is zero, and may even be zero for the rest of the season.  But the chance for accumulating rainfall stays fairly high.  While we're entering into a more warm and active pattern for the second week of March, it looks like this type of pattern may be sticking around with the likelihood of temperatures staying above average straight through St. Patrick's Day!

The warmer pattern will, however, lead to a higher probability of rainfall in the coming days and weeks.  While no one day this next week looks to be particularly rainy, heavier periods of rain Tuesday night and again Wednesday night could push totals close to an inch in some spots.  Overall, the weekly rainfall totals look to be between one and two inches of rain by this time next weekend.

And while the warmer temperatures are nice, we don't want to warm up too fast, too quickly.  We've reached the peak of El Niño and current trends support us transitioning back into an ENSO neutral phase by this summer.  However, remember March of 2012 when highs were in the 70's and 80's for a week?  Remember what happened later that spring and summer?  Drought conditions developed very quickly over Illinois and Wisconsin.  Now I'm not saying that this is going to happen again this year, but it's important to pay attention to what our atmosphere and climate are trying to tell us.  So while the warmth is going to be nice this next week or two, it's also nice to trend near average every once and a while.

Soggy Week Ahead?

Friday was snowy, Saturday was cloudy, and Sunday will be mainly dry with milder temperatures. So what happens next in the ever-changing weather pattern across the Midwest? Well, the pattern will be turning unseasonably warm and wet, especially just to the south of the Stateline. The main zone of moisture will be from Texas and Louisiana to Arkansas and Missouri. Those areas will see multiple shots of moderate to heavy rain and thunderstorms, which could lead to flooding concerns. For us, the heavier rain will likely leave us alone. That is not to say we couldn't see some periods of moderate to heavy rain. Rather, it is saying the majority of our rainfall will be light and scattered in nature.

In fact, totals in the Stateline will likely remain below 1" through next Friday, with our southern counties--Lee, Ogle, Whiteside, DeKalb, Carroll--possibly seeing slightly higher totals. Notice how much rain locations from St. Louis and points south could see. Many regions down that way could see rainfall totals exceed 6". The reason for the upcoming active pattern and consequential heavy rainfall is an active jet stream that will lift well to the north next week. In other words, a ridge will engulf the eastern half of the country, which means an influx of much warmer air in addition to the rain.

Temperatures in Northern Illinois and Southern Wisconsin will eclipse the 50° mark each day next week, with the lone possible exception being tomorrow for our northern locations. The thermometer will likely read 60°-plus on Tuesday for just about everyone. That will likely be the warmest day of the next seven. With the warmer temperatures comes strong southwesterly winds Sunday, Monday and Tuesday. Winds could gust to 20-35 MPH at just about any time during that 3-day stretch.

Low Chance of 1" Snowfall Here on Out?

We have a Clipper system bringing some light to occasionally moderate bursts of snow to the Stateline this evening. This system could drop upwards of 1" of snowfall, especially north of the Wisconsin-Illinois border. Most of the snow accumulation would be on grassy or elevated surfaces. The low associated with this snow will quickly move on to the east tonight. After doing so, high pressure will build in from the west for the weekend. This will yield a warm up that lasts well into next week. It is looking increasingly likely that 50's and 60's will make a return next week, in addition to the chance of isolated showers and thunderstorms.

Now, with the calendar flipping to March, and with temperatures in the 50's and 60's making a return, you may find yourself asking, "Is this it for accumulating snow for this winter?" That is a nearly impossible question to answer, but it is evident that a lack of snow will be present for the next few weeks. The reason for that is a large ridge that will build in across the eastern half of the country. That ridge will keep the Midwest above average in the temperature department.

In fact, here is the Climate Prediction Center's forecast for the probability of seeing temperatures above average through the first two-thirds of March. Areas in the darker red shades have a high chance of seeing temperatures above average. That includes the Stateline, where we run a 60% chance of seeing above average temperatures through March 18th. With this kind of forecast, snow is highly unlikely. However, it would be feasible to say we are finished with snow quite yet.

From March into April, the percentage of days that see at 1" of snow drastically drops. However, through the middle of April, there is still a climatological chance of seeing at least an inch of snowfall on any given day. For example, by looking at the graph, you can see that roughly 4% of March 31st's feature at least 1" of snow. So, while chances of accumulating snow go down significantly in March, and even more so April, there is still a chance of seeing snow. Regarding this particular year, it appears unlikely that snow will affect the region through mid-March, but the pattern may deliver the chance of at least some snow late this month into next month. Always remember, Mother Nature has the last say.