Stormy Start to the Week

It's a mild Monday morning, with temperatures in the upper 40's and low 50's. It will feel a bit damp today with drizzle and overcast clouds on and off through the day. There is potential for a few isolated to widely scattered showers through the afternoon, but there will be a CAP on the atmosphere and that will make it harder to produce any rain or storms. However, more forcing will arrive tonight ahead of an incoming cold front, and storms will be more likely closer to 7pm tonight.

Storms will develop to the west, potentially as individual cells west of the area in central Iowa. Storms will congeal into a line in eastern Iowa and will continue to march east across northern Illinois. Timing will be around dinner time tonight, between 7pm to 11pm this evening. We will watch for potentially strong straight line winds in the line of storms, along with moderate to potentially heavy rain at times. Strong wind producing storms will be the most likely along the Mississippi and west today, with storms weakening as they head east. Western counties are included under a Slight Risk for strong to severe storms tonight, and the rest of the Stateline is under a Marginal Risk. 

Behind the front skies will clear rather quickly, but winds will strengthen out of the WSW into Tuesday morning. Tuesday will be sunny and mild but very windy. WSW winds have the potential to gust over 40 mph through the afternoon. With relative humidity dropping there will be somewhat of an elevated fire danger, and high profile vehicles will have difficulty driving at times.

Back and Forth

We have been going back and forth between spring-like weather and wintry weather.  Early last week we had the severe weather move through our area, quickly followed by some snow.  We've been warming back up since the start of the weekend, and now we're looking to cool down again.  We have a warm front moving through tomorrow, which will bring us some rain for the afternoon.  A cold front will quickly follow and will bring some thunderstorms to our area during the late evening hours.  The storms will not be severe, but they will produce some gusty winds.  We stay fairly warm up until Friday, where we cool down yet again.  We'll have more rain moving through our area on Friday before it transitions to snow for the evening once temperatures move below freezing.  The snow will persist from Friday evening into Saturday evening and then transition back to rain on Sunday once temperatures slightly rise above freezing, so we continue to go back and forth.

Warming Trend Under Way

We made it just above average today, but we will be well above average once we move into next week.  A low pressure system to the southwest is helping to channel warm air into our area, but with that warm air comes a good amount of moisture.  That warmth and moisture will lead to cloudy skies tomorrow morning, but it will also push our temperatures into the low 50°s.  The low will bring a warm front to our area on Monday, giving us rain during the day.  However, that warm front will also bring us up to about 60°.  A cold front will move through our area in the evening and will bring some thunderstorms.  The thunderstorms will have gusty winds for the late-night hours.  That cold front will not affect our temperatures much, as we will be in the mid 50°s for Tuesday, and the mid 40°s for Wednesday and Thursday.  By Friday, we warm right back up in the mid 60°s to end the week!

Spring On the Way?

We have seen quite a few warm-ups these past couple of weeks, and we're looking to get yet another one!  We gradually warm up into Monday, where temperatures will peak at almost 60°.  However, we will have a warm front moving through that day and it will bring some rain shows to our area, along with a possible storm in the evening.  The storm will not be severe and we are expecting about one-tenth of an inch of rain.  We will have some northwesterly winds move through our area early Tuesday morning, but we will only cool down into the low 50s and then the mid 40s for Wednesday.  After that, we jump up even higher with temperatures in the low to mid 60s to end the work week!

Quick Snow before Spring-like Weekend

It will be a chilly winter like day with high temperatures only climbing into the low 30's  but it will be a sun-filled afternoon. Clouds will thicken tonight as a disturbance moves through this evening, and with just enough forcing we will get a little snow before a spring-like weekend.

Accumulations will be fairly minor, as much as an inch expected, but most will just receive a half inch to a dusting of snow. This will move out of the area fairly quickly, with skies clearing early Saturday.

A warm front will be draped south of the area, and this will turn our surface winds to the southeast. With the easterly component temperatures will be cooler Saturday compared to Sunday when they turn to the south. Temperatures will climb into the mid 40's with a lot of sunshine on Saturday, but will be in the 50's on Sunday. Clouds will increase turning partly sunny on Sunday as moisture is advected in from the southwest ahead of a strong low pressure system. That low will pass well to the north of the area, but it's cold front will bring a chance for showers and storms by Monday. 

Confirmed tornado near Oregon, IL Tuesday

A team of meteorologists with the National Weather Service were out all day Tuesday surveying storm damage around northern Illinois.  Much of the survey was focused on the hardest hit areas from Naplate to Ottawa, but a team did survey damage that occurred southeast of the town of Oregon in Ogle County.

Shortly after 5pm Tuesday, a strong line of thunderstorms moved through south-central Ogle and north-central Lee counties.  It was near the roads of Daysville and Lighthouse where most of the damage occurred to a barn, numerous trees and homes.  The survey team determined that an EF-1 tornado occurred in that area with maximum wind speeds of 90-95 mph.  The tornado was on the ground for a mile and a half and was reported to be 50 yards wide.  It was only on the ground for two minutes and was likely a quick spin up tornado along the leading edge of the strong thunderstorm.

It was also determined that straight line wind damage occurred up to a mile and a half east of the tornado damage with winds estimated to be near 80 mph.  This lines up well with the several reports we received of downed trees near Chana, IL.

Record Breaking Warmth and Severe Storms to Close February

We all know that it was an abnormal February across the Stateline with multiple record breaking days...but how warm was it?

Yesterday temperatures climbed to 61° which put us over the edge for top spot when it comes to warmth for the month. The previous record for warmest February on record was 36.5° set in 1998. We set a new bar this year, with the month's average temperature at 36.8°. The average high topped out at 47.3°, compared to it's average high of 34.2°. That's about 13° warmer than normal! The low was 26.3°, compared to the average low of 17.7°.

The warmest temperature in February was 70° on the 22nd, and the coldest was 10° on the 4th. We ended up with 1.78" of rain, which is 0.37" above normal, with only .2" of snow. We typically receive 7.7 inches through the month of February! 

We concluded the month with strong to severe thunderstorms across parts of the Stateline area. Most of our severe storms were south of Rockford, but there were many reports of hail. We did have a tornado warning in the area, however no reports of tornadoes. However, there were multiple reports across the state and just south of DeKalb County yesterday evening.

You can find more information on that here.The National Weather Service in Chicago will be out in the field today to determine how many tornadoes touched down as well as their strength.