Wednesday Evening Storm Update

11:10pm Update: Thunderstorms out west have weakened running into a little more stable air mass over eastern Iowa and northwest Illinois.  While a new severe thunderstorm watch had been issued for eastern Iowa, the severe threat seems to be lowering.  Storms will continue to progress to the east crossing over into southwest Wisconsin and northwest Illinois towards midnight.  Stronger storms may produce gusty winds and small hail, but the overall severe threat appears to be weakening.



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Strong to severe thunderstorms have been developing over far western Iowa, eastern Nebraska and northeast Kansas.  Locally, storms from earlier in the day clearing allowing a little more sun to develop during the mid to late afternoon.  This helped to warm temperatures into the mid and upper 60's.  East winds, however, have cooled temperatures from Janesville to Rochelle into the low 50's.

Skies have cleared from the rain over southern Wisconsin and northern Illinois, but not for long as what's developing back out west moves east with an advancing cold front and low pressure system.

A warm front sits over central Illinois with temperatures in the 70's and 80's to the south and 50's and 60's to the north.  The front remains in place through much of the evening, lifting north with the passage of low pressure over Iowa and into Wisconsin.  As this happens the storms out west will move east, weakening a little as they do.  Storms that do form and maintain their strengthen closer to the warm front over northeast Iowa, southwest Wisconsin and northwest Illinois could pose a hail and wind threat between 10pm and 2am.

The image on the left is a simulated radar image at 1am.  While the storms will weaken some with the loss of daytime heating, the strength of the low may be able to maintain a few stronger storms during the early overnight.  Heavy rain and hail would be the primary threats. 

Storm Outlook Wednesday

Keep the umbrella handy Wednesday, especially in the late morning and evening. We're watching a couple chances for rain today, the first will be arriving a little before lunch today. A mid-level disturbance is firing up an area of rain and storms in southeastern Iowa. This will weaken but will move into northern Illinois closer to 10am this morning and will continue through lunch today. We are not anticipating any severe weather with this first round of rain.

Most of Wednesday will be dry, but more storms will be possible this evening. An  area of low pressure will trigger a warm front to lift across northern Illinois and Iowa, and will trigger storms to develop in western Iowa around 3-4pm. The storms will move east bringing the threat for an isolated tornado, large hail, and strong damaging winds through central and eastern Iowa. This has prompted an enhanced risk for storms (orange color) from central to eastern Iowa. Northern Illinois and southern Wisconsin are under a 'Slight' risk for strong to severe storms (yellow). Our storm threat will be more isolated in nature as the larger MCS type system lifts north of the area. However, thunderstorms across our region have the potential for larger hail and gusty winds as well.

The threat for these storms will increase after 8pm tonight, with higher chance closer to the 10pm hour. It will be a good night to keep the car in the garage! The rain won't last long, we'll dry up by early Thursday morning.

A Stormy Transition to Cooler Air

After an amazing string of 5 days at or above 70 degrees, we knew that things had to change.  Fortunately although our temperatures will be dropping, they wont fall too much below our average of 62 degrees for this time of year.  We will, however have some rain and thunderstorms to contend with as we transition to cooler air.   A cold front associated with a storm system in Canada will push through our area tonight and could trigger some showers or a thunderstorm, likely very late.  Storm chances increase tomorrow as the same cold front gets pushed back north as another storm system approaches from the Plains.  Rain chances will build throughout the day and the Storm Prediction Center has placed the Stateline in a Marginal to Slight chance area for possible severe storms.  The best chances for these storms will be in Iowa, but it is possible some of them move our way.  The greatest threat from these storms will be hail and locally damaging winds, with a slight chance of a tornado.  Keep tuned as we track these storms later tonight and tomorrow. 

Nice Weather Streak Looking to End

We had another beautiful day today with lots of sunshine and temperatures in the low 70°s!  We've got ourselves quite the streak going, and the best part is......we continue it for tomorrow as well!! That high pressure system that's been with us the past couple of days has really helped to clear our skies and give us more sunshine.  Thus, warmer temperatures as well.  We hold on to the high pressure influence for this evening, with mostly clear skies and temperatures in the 60°s, so this would be the perfect evening for going out and for seeing a sunset as well!  Because the skies will be mostly clear, we will see another chilly overnight with temperatures in the low 40°s again.  We slightly lose the high pressure influence for tomorrow, as we'll see some more clouds during the day  However, we'll still get plenty of sunshine as the skies won't be completely overcast, and we'll climb to the mid 70°s.  It'll be more scattered cloud cover.

The streak does come to an end though on Wednesday.  We'll be mostly cloudy with temperatures in the upper 60°s, but a low pressure system will move in for the evening.  This low will bring us some thunderstorms during the evening and the overnight, and we do have a chance for some severe weather.  We are currently under a Marginal risk, as the thunderstorms are expected to produce strong winds, heavy rainfall, and even some hail.  The hail is looking to be a little larger than what we had Saturday night, so be sure to park your cars in the garage and protect them as the hail could leave some damage.

The storms move out Thursday morning between 6-7am, but as the low tracks east it'll pull northerly winds into our area, which will cool us down into the 50°s for the rest of the week.  However, we're expected to warm right back up into the 60°s to start next week.

Soggy Spring, Storm Threat Midweek

Multiple rounds of rain over the weekend are adding to high river levels across portions on the Stateline, so it's no surprise that we've had high rain totals for the month and for Meteorological Spring. Totals are over 2" above average for the month, and when we combine the monthly total with that of March, the number climbs to almost 6.75" inches! Currently April's rain total is just under four inches of rain!

Through the weekend, Rockford received 0.06" on Friday, 1.53" on Saturday, and .23 on Sunday. As we look ahead to the middle of the week, an additional inch is possible across northern Illinois and southern Wisconsin. Along with potentially heavy rain in thunderstorms on Wednesday, some have the potential to be on the strong to severe side. However, the highest potential looks to reside just south of the area where guidance is positioning the warm front. If the frontal position changes, that would change the severe outlook and where it would set up. We'll continue to keep an eye on Wednesday, with the slight risk area highlighted just south of the area.

A Small Streak of Nice Weather

It's been a beautiful Easter Sunday with lots of sunshine and temperatures in the low 70°s!  What better weather can you ask for on Easter, and the evening will be just as nice as the skies will stay mostly clear with temperatures in the mid 60°s.  Better yet, we get to hold on to this nice weather for the next few days! Monday and Tuesday we'll see temperatures in the low 70°s with partly cloudy skies, and the reason for the nice weather is because we have a high pressure system moving in that'll stay with us through Tuesday night.  The high has been moving towards us all day, and has helped to push the clouds out of our area.  It'll move in for this evening, and this will cause the winds to die down considerably from what they were earlier today.  It was a little breezy this afternoon, but the high will help to suppress the wind flow and allow us to have a much more calm conditions this evening.  The high will move out Wednesday morning, with a low pressure system that'll move in behind it.  The low will bring some cloudy skies for Wednesday, which will keep our temperatures in the mid 60°s for the afternoon and bring us some thunderstorms for the overnight.  The storms will move out Thursday morning, and the low will begin to track east.  This will keep our skies mostly cloudy for Thursday afternoon, but it'll also cool our temperatures into the 50°s for Friday and Saturday.  However, we warm back up on Sunday into the mid 60°s

Severe Weather Update

Severe thunderstorm warning for Carroll County is cancelled. However, more thunderstorms will move in for the evening, but die out as temperatures cool down once we get into the late-night hours