Patchy Frost Possible Friday Morning

9:45pm Update: Carroll County now under a Frost Advisory tonight.

A Frost Advisory has been issued for Stephenson, Jo Daviess and Green counties beginning overnight and lasting through early Friday morning.

Skies will likely remain mostly cloudy but a few breaks in the cloud cover could allow for temperatures to fall into the mid 30's, causing patchy frost to develop.  I do not think this is a widespread threat as cloud cover from the southwest will quickly fill in, but if you do have sensitive plants or vegetables that have begun to emerge it may be a wise idea to cover them just to be on the safe side.

We are actually pretty close to when we experience our average last spring freeze.  Typically this occurs towards the end of April - right around April 28th in Rockford.  The earliest spring freeze occurred on April 7th and the latest spring freeze occurred on May 27th.

Storms Return and a Rainy Weekend

There was a little more cloud cover today, but at least we still got to see a fair amount of sunshine.  This allowed for a fairly nice afternoon, and also allowed for our temperatures to climb to the upper 70°s!  Our temperatures stay warm for the evening, and we'll only cool down to the low 60°s for the overnight.  This is because we have a low pressure system over in northwestern Missouri, which has been pulling in lots of warmth and moisture.  This is why we saw warm temperatures, more cloud cover, but unfortunately is why we have a chance for some light rain during the overnight.  Our western and southern counties have the better chance for the light rain, even though the chance overall is still small, but we can't rule a possibility for some light rain in our other counties.

However, every county tomorrow will have to experience the larger event, as we'll have thunderstorms move through our area during the day on Wednesday.  We are under a Marginal Risk for severe weather, with the thunderstorms expected to produce heavy rainfall and gusty winds at around 50 mph.  The storms will be moving in from the west, so our western counties will be seeing them first in the later hours of the morning.  They're expected to arrive between 10-11am.  Our middle and eastern counties will see the storms during the afternoon.  This is because the cold front associated with the low pressure system will gradually move through the stateline during the entire day.  This means that when the storms form in the middle and eastern counties, that the storms in our western counties will have moved out.  All the storms will move out of the stateline by the evening, but with all the moisture that'll be left over in the atmosphere, we could see some light rain linger with us into the overnight.

After the stormy day tomorrow we cool down into the mid 50°s for the rest of the week, with some drizzle expected Friday evening.  Another low moves in for the weekend and will bring over four-tenths of an inch of rain for the entire weekend, but our temperatures will also start warming up back into the 60°s for the end of the weekend.  A little bit of rain lingers into Monday, but sunny skies return next Tuesday.

Get Out and Mow Today - Abundant Rain through the Weekend

Tuesday will be our last dry day before multiple rain chances dot our forecast. Today there is still relatively dry air in place which will help high temperatures climb into the upper 70's, however the trade off will be more cloud cover through the afternoon.

We'll notice an increase in moisture tonight as the low moves into eastern Iowa, skies will turn mostly cloudy and rain will move in from the west around midnight tonight. The coverage and intensity of the rain will increase into Wednesday morning. We'll get a midday break before more showers and storms will be possible Wednesday afternoon. Along with heavier rain on Wednesday, a few stronger storms will be possible with mainly a threat of gusty winds. Rain totals through Wednesday approach an inch and a half, but that isn't all of it.

There is even more potentially heavy rain through Saturday and Sunday, where totals through the weekend bring totals up to about 3" through the next seven days.

Rainy and Cooling Down This Week

Coming off of a beautiful weekend with warm temperatures and sunny skies, we got to start our work week with it as well! We made into the mid 70°s today, a little bit warmer than what we saw had during the weekend.  The evening stays just as nice as we'll be in the mid 60°s with partly cloudy skies.  As we move into the overnight, cloud cover will increase, and temperatures will be a little cool in the low 50°s.  A low pressure system will make its approach during the overnight, bringing in even more clouds during the day tomorrow, but we'll still manage to get into the mid 70°s for the afternoon.  A weak warm front will move through late tomorrow night, keeping our overnight temperatures pretty warm in the low 60°s, but it'll also bring us a small chance for some light rain.

The chance for rain only lasts for a few hours, but the chance for thunderstorms picks up as we head into Wednesday afternoon.  We have a marginal risk for severe weather on Wednesday, as another low pressure system will form in southwest Texas and track along the jet stream into our area.  The low will bring in quite a bit of warmth and moisture, but it'll also bring a cold front which will push all that warmth and moisture upwards, allowing for thunderstorms to develop.  The storms will produce heavy rain and some gusty winds, but they'll clear out by the evening when the front passes through.

The front will cool our temperatures into the mid 50°s for the rest of the week, with a third low moving in on Friday.  The warm front associated with this low will bring us more rainfall, but it'll only warm our temperatures up into the upper 50°s and low 60°s, doing the opposite of the warm front coming up tomorrow night will do.  The low will continue the inflow of warm air through Saturday night, bringing in more thunderstorms for the overnight.  Temperatures stay in the upper 50°s and low 60°s for the weekend, with a chance for rain coming up next Monday.

Don't Forget the Sunscreen

It was an absolutely beautiful spring weekend.  Temperatures in the mid 60's Saturday and low 70's Sunday - no reason not to get out and enjoy!  But when you do head out, don't forget the sunscreen.  Yes, a sunburn can still happen even when it's not 'really hot' outside. 

Each and every day the sun angle is getting higher and higher in the atmosphere and the sun's strength is getting stronger and stronger.  Even though temperatures aren't reaching the 80's and 90's, any prolonged period outside under full sunshine can still cause you some problems if you're not careful.  We tend to think about it less because it isn't as warm as it is during the summer, but the strength of the sun is reaching its peak.  And it's even more important this time of year because our skin is not used to all that sunshine following the cooler winter months.  So it's extra important that we cover up!

High Pressure Brings a Great Weekend

The beautiful weather has set in for the weekend with temperatures managing to climb into the mid 60°s due to all the sunshine we've had today! That high pressure system up north is the reason for this nice weather.  It's been steadily progressing towards our area throughout the day, which is why we saw the clouds gradually decrease from the morning into the afternoon.  The other thing this high pressure system is doing is keeping all the storms down to the southeast by pushing the jet stream down south.  Generally, temperatures get cooler when the jet stream is south of a location, but since its spring time the sun is much stronger, allowing us to still see fairly warm temperatures even though we're slightly north of the jet stream.  Low pressure systems travel along the jet stream, as that's where the mixing between warm and cold air occurs.  This is why we're seeing such nice weather this weekend, because the jet stream is to the south, which means all the storms are going to stay down to the south as well.  These conditions will continue for the rest of the weekend, allowing temperatures to keep climbing and the skies to stay sunny. 

Clouds will move in Monday as a low pressure system will develop out west, but we'll still have 70° temperatures for the afternoon and for Tuesday as well.  Tuesday evening is when the low will move in, bringing some light rainfall for the late-night hours.  The low will track east and cool us down into the 60°s for the rest of the work week, with more rain moving in on Friday.  Temperatures return to the 70°s next weekend, with a chance for some thunderstorms on Saturday.

A Beautiful Weekend Ahead

We had a cooler end to the work week with temperatures only making it into the upper 50°s today, but we did get to see more sunshine than we did yesterday and we'll continue to see the sunshine for the weekend as well!! The reason for that is we have this high pressure system that's been moving down from the north, gradually pushing clouds out of our area during the day.  The high will continue to make its approach as we head into the weekend, but we do have one more cloudy night to get through tonight.  The jet stream will be moving some upper-level moisture through our area this evening and during the overnight, allowing for upper-level clouds to develop.  Once we get into Saturday, the high will be closer, which will allow for more clouds to be moved out of our area during the day tomorrow.  We'll be cloudy in the morning, but the cloud cover will gradually decrease as we move into the afternoon.  With all the sunshine we'll be in the low 60°s for tomorrow, but the high will finally settle in over our area Saturday night.  This will keep the overnight chilly, but it'll push the rest of the clouds out of our area for Sunday, allowing temperatures to climb to the upper 60°s. 

We hold on to the warm temperatures as we head into the work week, but a low pressures system will move in on Tuesday, bringing light rain for the evening.  We cool down a little afterward on Wednesday into the upper 50°s, with a second low moving in on Thursday.  This low will bring rain during Thursday afternoon, but bring thunderstorms late Thursday night.  The storms will die down for the beginning of Friday, but more will move in for Friday night.