Wednesday Storm Threat

Outdoor plans today? You'll want to keep an eye on the radar, with the threat for storms going up late in the afternoon. Can't rule out an isolated shower or two through the early afternoon, but heavy rain and storms are in the forecast for the late afternoon.

We're watching an area of low pressure currently situated in southwest Iowa, with it's warm front in central Illinois. The low will strengthen and move east, which will lift the warm front farther north and closer to the Stateline area. This will prompt showers and storms to develop and move in from west to east. The timeline right now to expect storms would be around 4pm through about 10pm.

For the Stateline, most of the area is under a marginal risk for strong to severe storms, while our southwestern counties are included in the slight risk. Overall, we'll want to watch for storms with heavy rain at times and even some hail, as our storms remain elevated north of the front.

Closer to the warm front is where the threat is higher for strong to severe storms. South of I-80 is the area that will be closer to the approaching warm front, and area of low pressure. Therefore has a higher likelihood of stronger storms.

Rain amounts will total between .25"-.75", but localized higher amounts possible in thunderstorms. Most of the rain will be out of the area around midnight, though its possible for a passing shower into Thursday.

Soggy Morning Brings Big Difference in Temperatures

A lot of the rain is winding down for our Tuesday, but not before it dropped a good amount of rain across the Stateline. Initial rain totals coming in show a little under a half an inch of rain in southern Wisconsin, about a half an inch in Rockford and Freeport, and three-quarters of an inch in Rochelle.

There will be some ponding on the roads this morning as we slowly dry up today. Another round of rain will be possible on Wednesday too, as another low pressure develops in the plains and slides east into Iowa early Wednesday. It will lift the boundary that will be positioned in southern Illinois back north later Wednesday afternoon. This will then prompt showers and a few rumbles of thunder for the second half of our Wednesday, which then has the potential to add on another half to three quarters of an inch of rain.


Along with periods of rain over the next couple of days, there will be quite the temperature difference across Illinois and Iowa. North of the front today, northern Illinois and southern Wisconsin remain cooler in the mid and upper 50's and low 60's. However just south of us near the Quad Cities, high temperatures will climb into the 70's. On the southern side of the front in southern Iowa and northern Missouri, high temperatures will climb into the 80's.

Unfortunately there are no 70's or 80's in the forecast as of now, but models are hinting at warmer temperatures by the start of next week.

Rain Picks Up Monday Night - Heavier Downpours Possible

We'll remain on the 'cooler side' of storm systems this week with low pressure over the East Coast blocking warmth from making it into the Great Lakes.

Low pressure moving out of the Plains Monday evening will be the focus for thunderstorms over Minnesota and northern Iowa through the evening.  A few stronger thunderstorms closer tied to the low are possible.  Isolated showers will develop further east over Wisconsin and

Illinois as a warm front moves closer.  The warm front falls just short of passing the Stateline, but will become the focus Monday night for the development of showers and thunderstorms. 

The amount of moisture in the atmosphere will increase with the arrival of the low and this could lead to bouts of heavier rainfall during the overnight.  Rain totals won't be uniform throughout the Stateline, and we'll likely see a wide range of amounts by Tuesday morning.  Areas most likely to see the highest rain totals will be from Janesville down to Rockford and to the east.  Rainfall totals could add up to over an inch with repeated rounds through Tuesday morning.  Further west rain totals would be drastically lower.

Frost/Freeze Warnings in Place

A Frost Advisory has been issued once again for Green, Rock, Winnebago, Boone, McHenry and DeKalb counties late Sunday night through early Monday morning.  Freeze Warnings have been issued for southeast Wisconsin, nearly all of Michigan, northern Indiana and Ohio.  High pressure centered over Ontario, Canada will keep temperatures in the mid, and possibly low, 30's over parts of the Great Lakes Sunday night.

Counties west of Rockford are not included in the advisory as of yet because temperatures are expected to warm slightly, with the possibility of a little more cloud cover, during the overnight.  However, to be on the safe side it may be a good idea to cover or bring in any plants that may be sensitive to the cold.  This should hopefully be the last frost/freeze of the season.

Warming Back Up

We've had a beautiful start to the weekend with temperatures hitting the low to mid 60°s here in the stateline.  Along with that, we've gotten plenty of sunshine! This will continue for the rest of the weekend, so be sure to make plans to go outside and enjoy the amazing weather.  This weekend has been a complete 180 from last weekend, and the reason for that is high pressure.  A high pressure system is making its approach from the north, which has helped to clear the skies and allow the sun to make its presence.  High pressure keeps air from rising, and thus keeping storms and rain showers from forming.  This high lingers around through Sunday afternoon, which is why the weather tomorrow will be just like today.

However, we do have to deal with a chilly overnight tonight as temperatures will drop into the mid 30°s.  As that high clears the skies during the overnight, the lack of clouds will allow temperatures to drop fairly fast.  This can lead to frost formation, and we do have a chance for some patchy frost up north tomorrow morning.  Green, Rock, Walworth, Stephenson, Winnebago, and Boone counties all have a chance for from patchy frost occurring early tomorrow morning.  Our southern counties will be slightly warmer, just enough to keep frost formation unlikely. 

After the weekend, temperatures will warm up a little more for the work week into the mid 60°s, but a low pressure system will bring us some cloud cover for the work week as well.  We'll still see a good amount of sunshine, but this low will help to keep our temperatures on the warmer side for the entire week.  A warm front will move near our area Monday night, but it doesn't look strong enough to form any rain showers.  That low will dissipate on Tuesday when a ridge of high pressure moves in, creating a blocking pattern known as an Omega Block.  This will help to keep the weather calm for the rest of the week, allowing us to enjoy the 60° temperatures in peace

Warm and Sunny Weekend with a Cooler Week Ahead

We have an amazing end to the work week here in the stateline, with warm temperatures in the mid to upper 60°s and lots of sunshine! You can't ask for better weather on a Friday, and one of the reasons for it is that we have a low pressure system out east tracking away from us.  This has allowed for air pressure to increase, which helps to keep plenty of clouds out of our area and bring us more sunshine.  That sunshine helped to warm our temperatures near average, but unfortunately we couldn't break that barrier today, although a few places came close with highs at 67°.  As that low tracks east, our wind speeds will die down for the overnight, but that low will also pull some light rain showers near our area around 7am tomorrow morning.  They will skim the eastern part of our viewing area, moving through Boone, McHenry, DeKalb, and the eastern portion of Winnebago county.  However, the heavier rain showers will be pulled eastward, so we'll only see some drizzle.

The drizzle will move out between 9-10am, and after that we have a beautiful weekend to look forward to.  60° temperatures and plenty of sunshine; that's what this weekend has in store for us.  You'll want to make plans for the outdoors because it's going to be great! Another low will move in to start the work week, bringing clouds for Monday and a chance for thunderstorms late Tuesday night.  That low will stall in the plains afterwards, leaving clouds to stall in our area for Wednesday and Thursday, but drier air moves in on Friday to clear the skies and give us more sunshine.  Temperatures will be in the low 60°s for Monday, but once the clouds continue to pour in our temperatures will stay in the upper 50°s for the rest of the week.

More Frosty Nights Ahead

Well we finally made it back into the 60's yesterday, and we'll do it again today! There is even a day where we climb into the low 70's, but before we get there we have some frosty nights ahead.

A combination of a few things will bring chilly overnight temperatures this weekend. First, we remain under the influence of northerly flow in the upper levels of the atmosphere, which typically supports cooler temperatures overall. We'll also be watching for an incoming cold front that will arrive late tonight or early tomorrow. While it brings a few light showers this evening, by Saturday evening low temperatures will be dropping into the mid 30's. You'll want to bring in or cover any sensitive plants with frost looking more and more likely. By Sunday night the atmosphere will be primed for optimal radiational cooling, which will again bring temperatures into the mid 30's. We will have mainly clear skies and light winds into Monday morning.

At least there is a light at the end of the tunnel, with a forecast high of 72° on Tuesday.