Cooler Weather and Our Next Rain Chances

It was a chilly start, but the clear skies allowed for lots of sunshine to start this Wednesday, which warmed up our temperatures pretty quickly.  However, we still have some cooler inflow coming out of the north, and this will keep our temperatures cooler today in the upper 70°s again.  Some clouds will develop during the afternoon, but we'll still see plenty of sunshine to accompany the nice, mild temperatures.

The skies will clear again for the overnight, where we'll dip into the low 50°s again.  However, winds will be calm during the overnight, and this will make it easy for fog to develop, so we could see some widespread fog during the overnight.  However, it'll only be a light fog, nothing dense. 

Tomorrow will be the coolest day out of this cool period, as we'll only get into the mid 70°s during the afternoon.  We'll have scattered cloud cover during the afternoon, which is why temperatures will be in the mid 70°s as opposed to the upper 70°s.  After tomorrow, temperatures will start warming back up again, eventually getting back into the low 80°s by Saturday.  However, one of the reasons for the warmer temperatures will be due to a low pressure system approaching from the west.

This will increase our cloud cover going into the weekend, as well as our rain chances.  However, rain is not expected until during the overnight Sunday night.  That way, the rain can't ruin your daytime plans for the weekend!  Even though it'll be cloudy this weekend, it'll be nice and dry with temperatures in the low 80°s.

Keeping an Eye on the Tropics

We are nearing the peak of hurricane season and have begun to notice an uptick in tropical activity over the past several weeks.  Low pressure associated with the remnants of Hurricane Harvey have formed near the Yucatan Peninsula, moving into the southern Gulf of Mexico.  Current forecasts suggest that this low will be moving into an environment that will be a little more favorable for possible Tropical Depression or Tropical Storm development within the 24 to 48 hours.


Currently the low is moving to the northwest around 10 mph.  Even if development into a tropical system doesn't occur, the low will more than likely bring heavy rain and possible flooding for parts of Texas and southwest Louisiana as it slows down before reaching the coast. 

The image on the left is the projected 7-day rainfall totals for the United States.  Notice the significant amount of rainfall possible for Texas and other Gulf States, along with southern Florida.  Another low pressure system, while likely not developing into anything significant, will bring heavy rainfall to parts of Florida later this week.


How this low develops and tracks in the Gulf, and into the south, will also have an impact on our rain potential late this weekend and early next week.


Right now there will be a chance for rain Sunday through Tuesday, but the intensity of the rain will depend on how much moisture is pulled north from the Gulf. 

Rainfall Running Short

A little rain fell Monday evening and overnight, but it wasn't much.  Where the rain did come down, less than a tenth of an inch was recorded.  The heaviest rainfall remained over southern Iowa, Missouri and central Illinois.


June and July were very rainy months for northern Illinois and southern Wisconsin, and the month of August has been quite the opposite.  Officially in Rockford we've recorded only 0.61 inches of rain.  Normally we should be a little over three inches this far into the month, putting us close to a three inch deficit.  And with high pressure remaining the persistent weather feature this week, there is little opportunity for rain to fall straight through to the weekend.

There is a weak upper level disturbance (mini-low) that works south out of Canada Wednesday and Thursday.  Unfortunately this doesn't have a great deal of moisture with it, likely leaving our skies mostly cloudy., rather than rainy.


Early next week could bring a few a showers, but a lot of the forecast depends on what will happen over the Gulf of Mexico with a potential tropical system that may develop later this week.

A Mild Week Ahead

Skies are starting to clear up across the Stateline as we have drier air flowing into our area.  We had some lingering, thick cloud cover this morning after the front moved out, mainly because our dewpoint temperatures were still fairly high.  Luckily, this dry inflow will lower our humidity and cloud cover going into the afternoon, as well as keep our temperatures a little cooler in the upper 70°s for our high.

That dry inflow will clear our skies for the overnight, where we'll cool down to the low 50°s.  The dry inflow will last the entire week, keeping the skies mostly sunny and allowing for temperatures to stay in the 70°s, and our humidity to stay low.  We'll dip down to the low 70°s going into Thursday and Friday, but we'll start warming back up as we go into the weekend, hitting the low 80°s by Sunday.

 The reason for this cooling trend is because a high pressure system is going to gradually move towards our area as we progress through the week.  During that time, the high will keep pulling in cooler air into our area, before we hit our coolest temperatures this week in the mid 70°s for Thursday and Friday.  Once we get into the weekend, that high will track east, so it won't be able to pull in as much cool air.  Because of that, we'll start warming back up a little bit during the weekend.

Weather Update Monday Evening

Isolated showers and thunderstorms have developed this evening ahead of a cold front that is forecast to move through northern Illinois and southern Wisconsin early Tuesday.


Our severe threat has lowered from earlier thinking today, but thunderstorms are expected to move in closer towards 9pm/10pm this evening.  There are a few showers and isolated storms that have developed south of Rockford.  These are along the leading edge of an increase in moisture aloft.  A more significant line of thunderstorms is currently moving into eastern Iowa and could impact our western and southwest counties around 10pm.  Heavy rainfall looks to be the biggest threat with any of these storms, but some of the stronger cells will be capable of producing a strong wind gust or two.


Thunderstorm coverage may increase around, and shortly after, Midnight as the cold front moves east.  There will be a few lingering showers/storms Tuesday morning, but drier air moves in and will help clear some of the cloud cover by Tuesday evening.

Eclipse Update and Severe Weather Threat This Evening

We had some thick fog out this morning, but that has since cleared out.  Light rain is tracking east across the Stateline, but is dying down and will clear out around mid day.  Skies will be mostly cloudy, but it'll be a little less cloudy along the state line itself, so this would be the best viewing area for the eclipse at 1:16pm.  Also, storm chances kick in around 1pm for our southern counties, which is another reason to go north for the eclipse as well.

We are under a Slight Risk for severe weather for the late afternoon into the evening.  The earliest we could see strong thunderstorms is 4:00pm, but the chances will increase during the evening.  The main threats will be strong winds and damaging hail, so be sure to get your cars inside if possible because the hail may cause significant damage.  The storms will linger during the late night hours, but the severity will go down as we progress through the overnight.  The cold front will move around 7am tomorrow morning.

 You'll definitely want to keep an eye out for weather updates during the afternoon, because the eclipse may impact whether or not we see storms during the afternoon and evening, as temperatures will fluctuate during the eclipse. 



After the front moves out, high pressure will move in to bring us cooler and drier weather for the rest of the week.  Temperatures will be in the upper 70°s to low 80°s this week, with the possibility of seeing the mid 70°s in the next couple of days.

Rain Is Back . . . For How Long?

After a nice weekend with temperatures right at our average of 82 degrees and nice views of the sun, rain has moved into the Stateline area.  Our rain tonight is the first of a possible series of disturbances that will move through our area over the next couple of days. The rain is beneficial as we have had dry conditions lately and are 2.29 inches below where we should be in an average August.  

We have another chance for rain late morning into early afternoon tomorrow, and then a cold front pushing through late Monday evening will give us our greatest chance for rain and thunderstorms.  The Storm Prediction Center has placed portions of the Stateline in the Slight Risk Area for severe weather tomorrow night, so stay tuned for updates throughout the day.

In the morning we will give you updates on our eclipse viewing forecast for the start, peak and end of the eclipse event.   Right now, it looks like we will have partly sunny skies and will be hoping for some good breaks in the clouds!