Monday, September 4, 2017

Smoke Filled Skies Monday Afternoon

Smoky skies could be seen once again Monday afternoon.  Not as thick as what it was last Thursday, but definitely gave the sky a 'yellowish' hue during the day and a reddish/orange sunset Monday evening.

Numerous wildfires have been burning out west prompting evacuations for many and burning thousands of acres.  The hot weather over the weekend has only added fuel to the fire, although firefighters did have a little break in the weather in California.  The smoke has been so bad over states like Montana, Washington, Oregon and California that Air Quality Alert days have been issued for an extended periods of time.

With the jet stream dipping south through the
Midwest Monday afternoon, smoke from the west was pulled east into the Midwest and Great Lakes.  The jet stream will continue to shift south Monday night and Tuesday.  This should shift the smoke further south into central and southern Illinois during Tuesday afternoon.

Labor Day Forecast

It won't be a total wash if you're planning on grilling out or spending time on the river this Labor Day. However, with the arrival of an incoming cold front there is a chance for a few isolated shower and storms today. The timing would be around 10am through 3pm for those isolated showers and storms. An atmospheric 'CAP' should limit the strength of any storms that form in northern Illinois. Just south of I-80, signs point to the CAP breaking and for strong to severe storms to be possible. Large hail and damaging winds will be threats south of Rockford. Rockford and areas west and north are included in a general risk of storms, while a marginal risk is highlighted southeast of Rockford near DeKalb. The higher risk (slight and enhanced risks) include central Illinois and most of Indiana and Ohio. Storms would impact those areas late this afternoon and early evening before the front passes and clears the area.


Behind the front, temperatures fall quite a bit, highs only make it into the 60's Tuesday through the end of the work week!

Sunday, September 3, 2017

Smoky Skies Possible Monday

Smoke from wildfires in Canada made it all the way into southern Wisconsin and northern Illinois last Thursday, dropping visibility down for a time under three miles.  We could once again see smoke from wildfires over Montana and California Monday morning and afternoon.

The smoke was very easily seen on visible satellite imagery Sunday afternoon, thanks to nothing but sunshine over the Plains and Rockies.  With winds aloft coming in from the west Monday, it's possible some of the smoke could move down into the western Great Lakes during the day.  It might not be quite as hazy as it was last Thursday, but could definitely give the sky a hazy look.

Pattern Change Brings Big Cool Down into the Midwest

The west has been baking for quite some time with several large wildfires burning from California to Oregon and into Montana.  Click here for the latest wildfires over the United States and Canada.  This has been due to a persist ridge of high pressure bringing unseasonable warmth to parts of the west and northwest.  Unfortunately, it doesn't look like there will be much relief for them, despite a major pattern change coming up this week.

A large ridge of high pressure will be pushed north into Canada and this will help dislodge an unseasonably cold air mass into the Midwest and Great Lakes.  Following a strong cold front Monday afternoon, temperatures will begin to drop from the 80's Monday, down into the 50's Monday night.  High temperatures through the rest of the week are expected to only warm into the mid and upper 60's Tuesday through Thursday, with Wednesday likely being our
coldest day out of the next seven.  Developing high pressure will also help to keep our skies mainly dry, especially for the latter half of the week.  It looks like temperatures will eventually warm back up near average - or into the mid 70's - by the next we get into next weekend.

Saturday, September 2, 2017

Another Hurricane Brewing In The Atlantic!

Just as Harvey is getting ready to exit the US, we already have another hurricane on our radar.  This one is named Irma - already a category 2 hurricane currently located in the central tropical Atlantic, with sustained winds of 110 miles per hour.  Irma is expected to take a northwesterly route towards the southeast US.  

Current predictions are for Irma to grow to be a major hurricane and for winds to increase to a category 4 level - or at least 130 miles per hour by Thursday.  We don't yet know where Irma will make landfall, but most long term models are showing landfall somewhere in the southeastern US.  Of concern is the rate of intensification, it is possible this hurricane could make landfall as a category 5.  Irma will definitely be watched closely as it approaches our shores.  

Friday, September 1, 2017

Holiday Weekend Forecast and Harvey Update

It was a beautiful start to our first day of Meteorological Fall, with lots of sunshine and temperatures only hitting the upper 60's in many locations, with a few places hitting the low 70's.  The fall-like weather continues going into the night, and temperatures will cool off pretty rapidly, so you'll want a jacket if you're going out tonight.  We'll hit the mid 50's in a few locations by 9pm, dipping down to the mid 40's for the overnight lows.

The clear skies will last going into Saturday, but during late afternoon we'll have a warm front approach from the west.  We stay dry overall, but we can't rule out a couple spots of rain out west during the late afternoon and early evening, but any rain that does form won't last long as that warm front will track northeast pretty quickly.  However, while that front tracks northeast, a couple spots of light rain could develop along the Stateline.  The front will exit a little after 9pm.

We'll be sunny and warm in the low 80's on Sunday, but a cold front will approach our area during the overnight, bringing a chance for thunderstorms Labor Day morning.  However, the front will exit mid day, so most of Labor Day will be sunny and dry, but it'll also be hot with temperatures in the mid to upper 80's.

Temperatures will cool down afterwards for the middle of the week into the mid 60's, but gradually warm back up going into next weekend.

Tropical Depression Harvey Update:
Winds have died down dramatically in Harvey, now down to 20mph.  However, even though it's weakening, it's still bringing heavy rain showers to Kentucky and southern Ohio, and severe weather over on the East Coast.  As of 1:15pm today, over 7 inches of rain have fallen in a few areas of Kentucky.  Widespread rain will continue from Harvey going into the weekend, with southern Ohio and areas of the East Coast looking to see over 2 inches of rain between this evening and tomorrow evening.


Harvey will die out tomorrow afternoon, but some rain will continue up the East Coast going through the rest of the weekend.


Welcome to Meteorological Fall

Today is September 1st and the beginning of Meteorological Fall, which consists of the three months of September, October and November.


Average highs at the beginning of September should be right around 80 degrees.  We will fall just shy of that Friday afternoon, just like we've done the past week and a half.  By the beginning of October the average high temperature should be in the mid 50's, and by the end of November the average high will have dropped down into the upper 30's.  Astronomical Fall begins September 22nd.


Meteorological Summer didn't feature too many weather extremes.  June and July wrapped up very close to average, but August will go down as a couple degrees cooler than normal.  Precipitation was high during June and July with both months finishing with over seven inches of rainfall, two to three inches above average.  August, however, was a bit more dry with Rockford only receiving a little over three inches of rainfall.  This was about an inch and a half below our monthly average.