River Levels Rise to Dangerous Levels

Flood Warnings and Flood Advisories continue to be in place this morning for the Pecatonica, Rock and Kishwaukee Rivers 'until further notice' across northern Illinois. Following the heavy rain overnight Tuesday and Wednesday, river levels experienced a rapid increase, pushing many areas into the moderate flood stage.


Right now the Pecatonica River in both Freeport and Shirland is in moderate flood stage, and is forecast to crest early next week. The Pecatonica is forecast to remain in moderate flood stage into next week. As we turn our attention to the Rock River, areas near Rockton and Latham Park were still in minor flood stage this morning. However, both are on track to climb into moderate flood stage by this afternoon. Runoff from all the recent rainfall will continue to cause river levels to rise over the weekend. If you live around any of these areas, there is a high chance for water to flood certain roadways. Do not try and drive through a flooded roadway. Remember, turn around-don't drown and find a different route to your destination. Pay attention to any directions given by local officials and emergency managers.

Thankfully, dry weather will pop up a lot more going into next week. The rest of today and Friday look to be dry, with the sky clearing out to sunny by Friday. Fall temperatures will be in full force - we’ll see highs in the 60s this afternoon, then only the 50s by Friday. A low pressure system is expected to bring more rain to the Stateline late Friday night into Saturday. Showers start up in the morning, then chances do continue through the rest of the day. Rain during the afternoon may be moderate at times, so hefty rain totals are possible. Dry weather and temperatures in the 60s resume on Sunday, and could last through the middle of next week. This should help improve the flooded rivers by late next week.

Flood Warnings Issued for Northwest Illinois

A Flood Warning has been issued for Stephenson and Carroll counties until 4pm Thursday afternoon. Emergency managers in both those counties are reporting roads closed due to flooding from local rivers.

In Mt. Carroll (Carroll County) the Plum River was reported out of it's banks, closing Spurr Road and Old Galena Trail Road. Those two roads are reported impassable due to water over the roadway. Additional roads are likely to be closed as the river continues to rise.

In Stephenson County, Business Route 20 west of Freeport is reported closed due to flooding from the Pecatonica River. Several rural roads are also closed throughout the county from flooding from the Pecatonica River, Yellow Creek and Richland Creek.

Parts of northwest Illinois and southern Wisconsin received anywhere from 2-3 inches of rainfall late Tuesday night. This is in additional to the extremely rainy September which caused many creeks and streams to already run high. A Flood Warning has been issued until 'further notice' for the Pecatonica River as it has gone into moderate flood stage.

Fall-Like Weather Returns

Hopefully you all took advantage and got to enjoy the summer-like warmth we had the last two day. If you are a person who loves fall, and more importantly "sweater" weather, I am happy to say that the change of the season is here. A cold front that passed through overnight brought not only heavy rain to the Stateline, but also 'fall'ing temperatures. We started out warm this morning with temperatures in the low 70s. Once winds behind the front changed to the northeast, temperatures took a hit and dropped into the 50s. Be sure to dress for the 50s as temperatures are likely to hold steady for much of the day.

Pockets of heavy rain impacted far northern Illinois and southern Wisconsin overnight. Most spots ended up in the range of 1 to 2" with locally higher amounts. Corey Bull, a storm chaser from Walworth County, sent in this picture of a stranded car in Elkhorn, Wisconsin. Unfortunately, this person's car battery died. However, the message is clear. If you come across a flooded roadway, turn around-don't drown. It is never safe to try and drive across a flooded roadway. Especially the roadways that are currently dealing with flooding from rising river levels due to the recent rainfall.

Make sure to keep the umbrella by your side today. Although we are not expecting heavy rainfall through much of the day, there will be times when we can expect periods of light showers to press through the Stateline. It’s won't be until most of us are sleeping that we’ll see more showers and possibly even a few storms develop. Another low pressure system is set to pass over the region overnight. At this time, most models keep the heaviest of the rain to the south, primarily along I-80. With that said, any rain or storms that do develop this evening could deliver downpours into early Thursday morning.

If you are tired of the rain, dry weather will finally take over by tomorrow. We could still see a few light showers or sprinkles linger into the early morning hours as well as the cloud cover.  As of a result of this morning's cold front, highs this week will go from 10° to 15° above average, to about 5° to 10° below average. Temperatures will continue to fall as we head into Friday and Saturday. The next rain chance for the Stateline will be during the day on Saturday. Until then, enjoy fall-like weather. In other words, SWEATER WEATHER.

Tube Shaped Cloud "Rolling" Across the Sky

Earlier this morning, people in and around the Rochelle area were subjected to a rare weather phenomenon. In the screenshot, the bright light shines on what meteorologists call a "roll cloud". This type of phenomenon is very rare and is typically associated with the outflow of a thunderstorm or occasionally a cold front. In this case, we had a strong cold front pass though the Stateline this morning, hence why we got to experience one.

Roll clouds look a lot like shelf clouds. The only difference is, they are completely detached from the thunderstorm's cloud base. Appearance wise, they are a tubed shape cloud and can span for miles. Roll clouds appear to be rolling about a horizontal axis because of the shearing effects and horizontal spin provided by the differing air masses in the atmosphere. If you see one, they are beautiful to observe. These clouds are harmless and do not produce tornadoes. Pretty neat huh? This type of cloud is not something you see everyday.

Severe Thunderstorm Watch Issued until Midnight

10pm Update: A Flash Flood Warning remains in effect for Jo Daviess and Stephenson counties until 3:30am.  Heavy rain continues to fall over the warned area, with nearly 2 to 3 inches of rain falling back to the west.  The ground is very saturated and it won't take much for flooding to begin, if it hasn't started already.  The storms are quickly moving to the east, but moving over the same areas. 

9:10pm Update: A Flash Flood Warning has been issued for northwest Jo Daviess County until 3am.  Heavy rain has fallen over the warned area, with already an inch being reported at the Dubuqe Airport.  Flooding in low lying areas, urban areas, streams and creeks is expected to develop shortly.





 
8:20pm Update:
Two Severe Thunderstorm Warnings for Jo Daviess County until 9pm. Storms are moving east/northeast. 60mph wind gusts and quarter sized hail possible.



 





7:10pm Update: There are a few storms I'm keeping a close eye on in NE Iowa this evening that could impact northwest Illinois within the next hour. 








A Severe Thunderstorm Watch has been issued until Midnight for Green, Rock and Walworth counties in southern Wisconsin and for Jo Daviess, Stephenson, Winnebago, Boone, Carroll and Ogle counties in northern Illinois. Severe thunderstorms have started to become more widespread over eastern and northeast Iowa Tuesday evening.

Strong southwest winds in the atmosphere will

most likely push the storms in northeast Iowa into southwest Wisconsin, but a general shift east is expected. The severe storms in Iowa have the potential for large hail, and hail and wind would be our biggest threats if storms were to turn severe locally. After Midnight, the threat will then shift to heavy rainfall. 

Strong to Severe Storms Possible Across Parts of the Area Tuesday Evening

The majority of the heavy rain has fallen north of the Illinois/Wisconsin state line, but the chance for not only heavy rain increases tonight, but also the threat for strong thunderstorms.

The majority of northern Illinois and southern Wisconsin are highlighted under a 'Slight Risk' for stronger storms from the Storm Prediction Center. Thunderstorms are beginning to increase in Iowa Tuesday evening and could increase even further to the east and northeast. Strong southwest winds in the atmosphere will most likely push the storms in Iowa into Wisconsin, but a few stronger storms are possible across northwest Illinois.

Should thunderstorms develop, they would quickly turn severe with hail, wind and isolated tornadoes possible. A cold front will then move closer to the Stateline Tuesday night and our threat will turn from strong storms, to heavy rainfall during the overnight.

A Flash Flood Watch remains in effect for Green, Rock and Walworth counties in southern Wisconsin and for Jo Daviess, Stephenson, Winnebago and Boone counties in northern Illinois.

Heavy Rain Poses for Flash Flooding Threat Overnight

You all know that famous song by Green Day, "Wake Me Up When September Ends". Now that the 6th wettest September on record is in the books, welcome to October everyone. It was a pretty warm start to the day, with most areas starting out in the low 70s. In fact, this unseasonably warm start did lead to a broken record. The official low at the Rockford International Airport was 70°. This breaks the record warmest low of 66° that was set back on September 30th, 200. Our low this morning was also 24° above the average. Summer wasn't messing around the past 24 hours. If you are a person who loves that summer-time heat, you are in luck. The warmer weather sticks around for one more day.

Most of the region so far this first of October has remained dry. In fact, we look to remain dry through the morning hours, however a spotty shower or thunderstorm is possible later today. Highs will climb into the lower 80s, so another day of temperatures between 10° and 15° above average. A very slow-moving cold front that is draped across the Midwest will have high levels of moisture ahead of it. This will bring the chance for scattered showers and thunderstorms to the Stateline by the time we reach the evening. Because of the threat for flash flooding, a Flash Flood Watch has been issued for all of our southern Wisconsin counties including Green, Rock, and Walworth county. As well as Jo-Daviess, Stephenson, Winnebago, and Boone county in northern Illinois. This watch is in effect until 10 AM tomorrow morning.

It all begins with a large ridge of high pressure that is placed over the southeast United States. This high pressure system spins clockwise. This type of moisture will continue to transport an abundance amount of moisture allowing the atmosphere to remain moisture-rich. With that said, the threat for flash flooding increases overnight. As the evening progresses, the cold front will slowly inch into far northern Illinois. The threat for heavy rain remains in place during the overnight hours as the cold front progresses through the Stateline.

Although heavy rainfall and flash flooding pose as the biggest concern for counties along the Illinois-Wisconsin border, this cold front does bring the possibility of strong to severe storms later today. The Storm Prediction Center has placed a Slight Risk (2 out of 5) for severe weather over our western counties. This threat will be pretty isolated, so not anticipating an outbreak of severe thunderstorms. The primary threat will be for gusty winds and an isolated tornado is possible.

Overall, the heaviest of rain will stay towards the north in central Wisconsin. Rain will become more widespread across the region as this cold front sinks southward overnight tonight. A few periods of showers could linger into our morning tomorrow, with some drizzle possible by the early afternoon. This cold front overnight will kick the summer-like warmth out, bringing back a cooler and much more fall-like airmass for the middle and second half of the work week. Highs for the Wednesday - Saturday time frame will feature 60s and upper 50s.