Soil Moisture Ranks Within 99th Percentile in Northern Illinois and Southern Wisconsin

It's no secret that the month of September was extremely wet across the Stateline. In Rockford, it was the 6th wettest September on record with a total of 9.10 inches of rain, and tied for the 7th warmest September on record since records began in 1906. The wet pattern has carried over into the first week of October with 1.71 inches of rain falling, a little over an inch above average.

The extremely wet pattern has had a big impact on local farmers. The Spring was wet and cold, pushing back spring planting with some fields not even getting planted. Now, with a wet start to the harvest season many are wondering when they're actually going to be able to get into the fields to start harvesting. All the recent rain has pushed soil moisture within the 99th percentile, with moisture running 5-6 inches above normal.

The good news for those whose fields aren't too wet, tomorrow and some of Thursday will be decent field work days. We'll see plenty of sunshine Wednesday with highs back into the low 70s. Clouds will increase Thursday with rain most likely holding off until the afternoon. Rain chances, and even thunderstorms, will increase Thursday night and Friday. Isolated showers are likely for the weekend, but it'll be a lot colder with highs only reaching the upper 40s, perhaps low 50s.

More Sunshine Ahead of Late Week Rain Chances & Cool Down

If you enjoyed yesterday's weather, you will also enjoy the weather that is in store for you today. Thanks to a large area of high pressure over the Great Lakes region, our weather will stay consistently sunny and dry.

We did start out once again on the chilly side this morning. Temperatures underwent the process of radiational cooling and dropped into the upper 30s in a few spots, with most ending up in the low 40s. Typically, you need clear skies and light surface winds for radiational cooling to occur. This basically means all the heat that the surface absorbed during the previous afternoon gets radiated back into space. As the heat is radiated back, temperatures rapidly cool which was why grabbing a jacket this morning was highly recommended.

As high pressure continues to dominate the region, today will feature deep blue skies and wall to wall sunshine. There may be a few of those flat fair weather cumulus clouds this afternoon. Sinking air is found underneath a high pressure and that helps to prevent clouds from rising much into the atmosphere. Unlike yesterday where we had winds out of the west, winds at the surface today will generally be out of the southeast & south. That is why conditions today will be pleasantly warm with highs in the low 70s. Get outside today and enjoy the weather!

Tonight’s forecast has temperatures falling into the low to mid 40s for the 3rd straight night in a row. Although this high pressure system will slide further to the east, there will still be plenty of dry air throughout the atmosphere. This will lead to a mostly clear overnight and another chilly start tomorrow morning. Wednesday will be our last day of completely dry weather. We’ll start the day with plenty of sunshine, but as the day progresses, clouds will be on the increase.With that said, the dry spell does continue into the second half of the work week.

Rain chances return to the forecast Thursday  night ahead of an approaching strong cold front.  We’ll see rain and a few storms for much of the day on Friday as the front slides through the Stateline. It won't be until Saturday where we really start to see the coldest air of the season so far move into the region. Highs will go from the upper 60s on Friday, down to the upper 40s for Saturday and Sunday.

That is around 15 degrees below average for this time of year, and closer to our usual overnight temperatures! We’ll see overnight lows in the much closer to the freezing mark than to our normal low starting Friday night and stretching through the weekend. Fun weather fact, we haven't seen highs in the 40s here in Rockford since April 30th. So it's definitely been a while. Our first fall frost is also likely this weekend with the air being so close to freezing. Make sure to plan ahead, and protect your plants and garden if necessary!

Early Season Winter Storm Could Impact Parts of the Midwest and Plains this Week

An early season winter storm will impacts parts of the northern Plains and Upper Midwest later this week, bringing several inches of snow across the northern tier of the country. Winter Storm Watches, Winter Storm Warnings and Winter Weather Advisories have already been issued for the northern Rockies, likely expanding further east within the next day or two.

Strong low pressure will develop late Tuesday

into Wednesday afternoon, quickly lifting northeast into the Upper Midwest by Thursday and then Upper Great Lakes Friday and Saturday. As the low pressure system deepens, it will pull down an unseasonably cold air mass. On the warmer side of the low rain and storms can be expected (including for us in northern Illinois and southern Wisconsin Thursday and Friday). Behind the low, however, heavy snow will fall causing significant impacts to travel, as well as to agriculture. Isolated locations could receive over a foot of snow by the end of the week. Combine that with a strong wind and some places may even experience near blizzard-like conditions.

By the time the cold front arrives into northern Illinois Friday evening most of the moisture will be gone, but the cold will stick around. Temperatures will tumble quite a bit from the mid and upper 60s early in the day Friday, down into the mid 30s Friday night and Saturday. No snow is expected for us, but a few wind-driven showers are possible during the afternoon Saturday. 

Dry Weather Welcomes the Work Week

Plenty of sunshine and dry weather has welcomed in the new work week. You won't need to worry about the rain gear for the next few days, but morning's might get a little chilly. So a jacket may be necessary as you get ready to head out the door. Maybe even with a nice hot cup of Joe. A combination of clear skies and relatively calm winds have allowed for temperatures to "bottom out" or rapidly drop  into the low to mid 40s. The seasonably cool start will gradually make way for a mild afternoon. Highs today under wall to wall sunshine will climb into the mid to up 60s. If you have the opportunity to go outside today after work or after school, please do.

High pressure will be in control of the weather here the next few days. This means plenty of sunshine will be had for each day. But more importantly, no rain chances. This will give the spots along the rivers that are experiencing significant flooding some time to recede.


Of course, after the sun sets, whatever warmth was absorbed during the previous afternoon gets radiated back into space. What does that mean for you? To put it simply, it just means that Tuesday morning could see a few spots drop into the upper 30s. Most of the region will bottom out into the 40s,  Widespread frost typically doesn’t form above 36°, so not expecting major issues with frost development. I personally think that it is crazy that we are already talking about the first frost and freeze of the year.

High pressure will continue to dominate our day tomorrow. Sunny skies will continue which will allow our temperatures during the afternoon to climb into the upper 60s. Wednesday will likely be the final day of completely dry weather. At this point in the week, our high pressure will slide east of the Stateline and move over the Great Lakes. We’ll see a few more high clouds build in by Wednesday afternoon as moisture streams ahead of Thursday’s rain chances. Shower chances do develop late Thursday afternoon and evening.

Better rain chances do move in by Friday as a strong cold front inches closer. This frontal boundary will have potentially the coldest air of the season behind it. The cold front timing is the key factor to how warm we get on Friday and how quick this cold air filters into the Stateline. This will drop our high temperatures from the upper 60s, down into the upper 40s for the weekend with lows in the 30s.

Big Pattern Change Arrives for the End of the Week, Possibly Bringing Our First Frost/Freeze

The month of October is known for its big pattern changes with temperatures reaching the mid 70s one afternoon, quickly dropping into the low 30s the next night. We could experience that very change by the end of the week as a strong cold front moves through the middle of the country.

High pressure will keep our skies mostly clear with temperatures gradually warming through

the mid and upper 60s Monday, Tuesday and Wednesday. Temperatures Thursday afternoon have a chance of reaching the low 70s, but clouds and incoming rain could cause us to fall short before reaching that mark. A big dip, known as a trough, in the jet stream will develop out over the Rockies late Tuesday night into Wednesday. Low pressure will develop, as a result at the surface, traveling through the central Plains Wednesday into Thursday before lifting into the Upper Midwest and Great Lakes Friday and Saturday. Ahead of the low, strong southerly winds will push a warm and moisture rich air mass northward. Behind the low a very cold air mass will fall across the Rockies and northern Plains, bringing snow to the northern Rockies and possibly the season's first snowfall to the northern Plains. 

Closer to home, rain showers will expand northward Thursday with the possibility for thunderstorms (some perhaps strong) Friday afternoon. Late in the afternoon and evening a strong cold front is expected to move through from west to east. Temperatures will fall from the 60s and 70s Friday, quickly into the 30s by Saturday morning. Wind and cloud cover will likely prevent any frost from forming and limit how far our temperatures fall, but Saturday night temperatures could tumble close to the freezing mark. On average, northern Illinois usually experiences its first first (32 degrees) within the first week and half of the month, with a killing freeze within the first two and a half weeks. Highs Saturday and Sunday may not even make it out of the 40s depending on overall cloud cover. Wind-driven showers may also occur, especially Saturday, as low pressure spins over Wisconsin.

Moderate Flooding on Local Rivers

A Flood Warning continues for the Pecatonica River, as well as for the Rock River from Rockton to Latham Park, down to Byron. A Flood Advisory continues for the Rock River from Byron to Dixon, as well as for the Kishwaukee River.

The Pecatonica River is in moderate flood stage and is forecast to crest early next week. In fact, the majority of the river crests will take place early next week, but it's likely that forecast will change with additional drainage from nearby creeks and streams, as well as any additional rainfall.

Several roads in Stephenson and Carroll counties are closed due to flooding from nearly creeks and rivers, and typical spots along the Rock River are also beginning to flood. The river stages are forecast to remain either in minor or moderate flood stage for at least the next week before slowly beginning to recede. 

Flood Warning Extended for Stephenson and Carroll Counties

The Areal Flood Warning for Stephenson and Carroll counties has been extended until 4pm Sunday afternoon. Road closures and flooding continue across those counties due to river and creek flooding.

According to emergency management, the Plum River remains out of it's banks with Old Galena Trail Road and Spurr Road still closed. Whacker Road in Savanna is also closed. The ground is extremely saturated and any additional rainfall will likely caused more flooding across the area.

In Stephenson County, Yellow Creek remains out of it's banks and has resulted in the indefinite closure of Loran Road in a couple locations between Bolton Road and Voss Road, and between Bower Road and Mill Grove Road. Ditches throughout the county are also full and additional rainfall will likely lead to renewed flooding.

The remainder of Thursday night and Friday will be dry but rain showers move in late Saturday morning. It'll be a steady rain Saturday, but could be heavy in some locations. Following the passage of a cold front Saturday night, we'll have a few days with dry skies.