Snowpack Melts Away with Warming Temperatures

Northern Illinois and southern Wisconsin have been split between winter storm systems to the north and to the south the past couple of weeks, leaving us with very little snowfall locally. Roughly 1-3 inches of snow is currently on the ground from Missouri to central Illinois, while close to a foot of snow remains over the Upper Great Lakes. A changing pattern in the jet stream will allow a warmer air mass to be pulled north late in the week, weekend and early next week pushing temperatures into the upper 40s, possibly close to 50 degrees.

The warming temperatures, however, may create a little more fog and cloud cover across the Stateline in the days to come. As the warm air moves over the snowpack to the south, the snow will melt adding moisture into the atmosphere. This added moisture will lead to the potential for the development of fog during the overnight as temperatures cool closer to the dew point temperature. If any fog develops it likely wouldn't last long as there will be quite a bit of dry air in the atmosphere located a few thousand feet above the surface. 

Conditions Remain Tranquil, Colder Air Arrives for Wednesday

Tuesday is off to a mostly cloudy start for some, especially if you live to the west of Rockford. A deck of clouds roamed into the Stateline from the north turning our skies mostly cloudy earlier this morning. It was also a very cold start to the day as temperatures dropped down into the mid to upper teens. The chill was real though as wind chills for most were in the single digits. Eventually, clouds give way to some sunshine this afternoon with highs climbing into the low 30s. This sits right around where we should be for this time of year as the average high for mid-December is around 32°. Regardless of today's high, a much cooler day is ahead for Wednesday.

A cold front is currently positioned across the far northern Upper Midwest. The cold front is poised to move through the Stateline this evening, bringing a return to gusty northwesterly winds and cooler temperatures for midweek. This cold front is going to be moisture starved as it progresses through the Stateline. But a passing flurry cannot be ruled out. Winds at the surface post frontal passage will switch to the northwest and allow the cold air to filter into the region. The coldest of the air according to model guidance stays to our northeast. However, very cold wind chills will make it feel like temperatures are below zero for a good portion of our morning. Highs tomorrow only make it into the low 20s, nearly 10° below average. The dry weather will continue into Wednesday as an area of high pressure settles in. The second half of the week brings a return to warmer-than-average temperatures. If you're not a fan of this winter-like chill, highs will climb into the mid to upper 30s on Thursday, and low 40s over the weekend.

Slippery Start Leads to a Quiet Afternoon

If you were one of those early-risers or 3rd shifters, you may have been welcomed a little bit of snow. Light snow moved in overnight last night bringing very light accumulations to the area. Most of us ended up with an inch or less as we were on the northern fringe of round 1 with this snowstorm. If you or some of your family live in central or southern Illinois, you were welcomed to much more heftier snowfall totals. Roads were a bit slick this morning, and some (mostly back roads) were snow covered. That is because roads were just cold enough for snow to stick. But now that snow plows have had time to clear the roads up, road conditions have significantly improved as the morning progressed. Just be mindful about any slick spots that remain.

The rest of our Monday is going to stay on the quiet side. Clouds do stick around for most of our day, but the possibility of a few peeks of sun later on are not out of the question. Temperatures look to stay seasonably cool as a light northerly breeze settles in, holding our highs in the low 30s. Regarding round 2, the pesky low that is causing all of this messy weather across a good chunk of the low 48 is going to track south of the region. Because of that, the next batch of snow will be restricted to central and southern Illinois once again. For us, we could see a few more clouds build in this evening. But once this low tracks into the Tennessee Valley, any snow chances and cloud cover will begin to decrease. Skies overnight will clear out allowing temperatures to "bottom out" as we say, or rapidly drop into the teens making for a very cold night. Lows by daybreak should wind up in the upper teens. BRRRRR.

Light Snow Expected Sunday Night, Heaviest Remains South

Winter Storm Warnings and Winter Weather Advisories have been issued for central and southern Illinois, and stretch back west through Missouri. Bands of moderate to heavy snow continue to come down south of the immediate Stateline. The northern extent of the snow is moving into an environment that is a little more dry, so it will take a little while before we begin to see some of the snow fly.

The majority of the accumulating snow will

remain downstate, where several inches of snow will fall through early Monday morning. Closer to home, totals less than an inch are more likely. High pressure to the north will block most of the snow from reaching this far north Sunday evening. We'll start to see some of the light snow move into northern Illinois between 7pm and 10pm, and continue into early Monday morning. Totals around an inch are possible for areas along and south of I-88, with lesser amounts further north. Where the snow does come down roads may be a little slick. 

Skies will remain mostly cloudy on Monday with temperatures warming into the low 30s. Another system will pass to the south Monday evening, with a much drier pattern expected - and a warmer one, too - through the end of the week and weekend.

Active Pattern Heading Into the Weekend, Potential for Bigger System Early Next Week

Strong southerly winds Thursday afternoon help warmed temperatures 10-15 degrees above Wednesday's high, warming into the upper 30s and low 40s. A couple systems will move through the jet stream this weekend, but depending on where exactly the jet stream sets up will determine whether or not we are impacted.

The first of those systems will pass Thursday night with a cold front moving into northern Illinois. The front will weaken as it shifts south, meaning limited precipitation chances and temperatures won't fall too far Friday morning. In fact, we'll still hold on to the southerly wind Friday with temperatures on either side of 40 degrees during the afternoon. A second system moves in from the west late Friday evening and this could bring some drizzle, flurries and even freezing drizzle overnight Friday, followed by a little light snow Saturday morning. Accumulations are not expected to be much with this system, but a few slicks spots early Saturday can't be ruled out.

Sunday will be dry, but cold. High pressure builds in for the afternoon with highs in the mid 20s. The potential exists for an even stronger low pressure system to then develop Monday afternoon, impacting northern Illinois and southern Wisconsin. This low *could* have some accumulating snowfall, the most since Veteran's Day, but the track of the low will be key. Two of our more reliable forecast models that go beyond the weekend have two completely different scenarios. 

First scenario would take low pressure east of the Rockies, shifting it across the Gulf states Sunday into Monday. This would mean much of the Stateline would avoid snow, or any precipitation, early next week. The second scenario would bring low pressure from the Plain to near St. Louis and Indianapolis Monday night. This would place northern Illinois and southern Wisconsin in the more favored area for accumulating snow. It's still yet to be seen what exactly will happen early next week, but the track of this next low is definitely something to keep an eye on.

Temperatures Rebound After Arctic Blast

Old man winter has made himself pretty comfortable the past few days. High temperatures at the Rockford International Airport have only climbed to 22° on Monday, 25° yesterday. We did have a cool start to the morning as temperatures dropped into the teens with wind chills for a few in the single digits. If you are looking for a break from this bitterly cold stretch, look no further. Our next system that arrives today will not only bring warmer temperatures to the area, but also gusty winds.

Warm southerly to southwesterly air will be funneled in from gusty winds this afternoon. As the low of importance tracks closer to the Stateline, the pressure at the system will tighten up. This will cause winds to gust up to 30, even 35 mph at times which will push highs into the low 40s. Cloud cover will be a small hindrance to this afternoon's warming. However, the biggest focus will remain the chance for some afternoon showers. This system seems to weaken a bit along with its "warm" front, so any afternoon/evening precipitation should remain light. Any chance for showers ends by the early evening. A cold front should slide in late tonight and weaken for Friday.

Bitterly Cold Follows Yesterday's Cold Front

The long-awaited arctic air has finally spilled into the Stateline this morning. And it's all thanks to yesterday's strong cold front. Temperatures quickly fell into the 20s by yesterday evening, then into the teens & single-digits by the time we were waking up this morning. It felt much colder out there as wind chills ranged between 0° and -10°. If you have to be out and about this morning, dress accordingly. It is essential that you bundle up in MULTIPLE layers, and to cover as much skin as possible. Any exposed skin is susceptible to frostbite within 20-30 minutes of continued exposure to this cold air. Places off towards the northwest, including the Dakotas & Minnesota, started out with wind chills in the -10s and -20s. Frostbite in those weather conditions can occur within 10 minutes. 


In fact, temperatures this morning were 30°-35° colder than how they were 24 hours ago. A drop that we haven't seen in quite some time. That's some really cold air. We did start off the morning with some cloud cover, and a few flurries as well. The rest of today features plenty of sunshine, so there is a plus to today's forecast. Despite the sunny skies, highs today for most will struggle to make it out of teens. Temperatures overall will land in the low 20s. If you are keeping track, that's a good 10° to 15° below average for this far in the year.

Wind chills are expected to stay under the 10° mark through much of Tuesday. Gusty westerly to northwesterly winds are going to keep filtering in this cold arctic air mass throughout the day resulting in wind chills in the single digits through the afternoon. We could see a few clouds overhead later this afternoon, but skies overall should stay partly to mostly sunny.

Skies will stay partly cloudy as we head into the night tonight, and temperatures will once again drop down into the teens. Now you might need to give yourself a few extra minutes tomorrow morning if your commute takes you to Davenport or Cedar Rapids.

A weak & quick moving disturbance could bring with it a few snow showers during the early morning hours, but should move out by the late morning hours. The most that anyone can see from this system could be an inch. A few models do bring a a flurry or two as far northeast as Carroll, Ogle, and Lee county. But a majority of this event will stay to the southwest of the viewing area. Midweek temperatures look pretty close to Tuesday's high temperatures. A more substantial warm-up is ahead for Thursday into Friday, as the Stateline finds itself on the "warm" side of an approaching cold front for the weekend.