Severe Weather Preparedness: Watch vs. Warning

Severe weather preparedness week continues in Illinois, reminding us that this week is a good time to review our severe weather plan, or put one in place if we don't have one already. When the threat for severe weather occurs, it's important to know the difference between a watch and a warning. A watch means severe weather is possible and conditions in the atmosphere are favorable for severe weather, but it's not occurring yet. You need to remain alert for quickly changing weather conditions. A severe thunderstorm watch or tornado watch is often times issued hours in advance of potential severe weather. A warning means severe weather is either going to occur, or is occurring already, in your area and you need to take shelter immediately - take action. Sometimes these can be issued 20 minutes before the storm arrives, or only a few minutes before the storm moves in.

Severe weather season is just getting started in the United States and will begin to ramp up in Illinois within the next month or two. Climatologically, the months of April, May and June are our peak severe weather season in northern Illinois, with the most tornadoes reported during that three month period. However, tornadoes can occur during any month and that's why it's so important to have a severe weather plan in place.  For more information on severe weather preparedness, visit the Chicago National Weather Service.

Winds Increase Thursday with the Arrival of a Cold Front

Southerly winds will increase Thursday morning ahead of a cold front that is forecast to move through northern Illinois and southern Wisconsin late morning. Wind gusts during the morning could reach 25-30mph, but increase from the west/northwest to 35mph during the afternoon and evening. This will make travel a little difficult, especially for those with higher profile vehicles, during the day.

The southerly winds early Thursday will bring

temperatures into the 30s by sunrise, warming into the upper 40s, to near 50 degrees. Temperatures will drop following the cold front during the afternoon and evening as colder air arrives from the northwest. A few scattered showers will be possible mid-morning Thursday, with a break in the cloud cover and precipitation during the early afternoon. 

Clouds are then expected to increase with the arrival of another cold front late Thursday

afternoon. Scattered rain showers, and even a few flurries, will be possible during the late afternoon and evening. High pressure will then move in Thursday night leaving us with mostly sunny skies Friday.

Minor Accumulations Likely with Light Snow Wednesday Morning

Light snow, with a mix of light rain and sleet, moved through early Tuesday morning but skies were quick to turn partly cloudy during the afternoon. West wind gusting as high as 40 mph Tuesday afternoon will begin to subside through the evening, with skies remaining partly cloudy through the first half of the night. Another quick moving clipper system will dive southeast from the Plains, moving into northern Illinois and southern Wisconsin after Midnight. Warm air ahead of the low will allow light snow to develop between 2am-5am, moving out mid-morning Wednesday.

This will be a quick moving system, but could have an impact on the early morning commute. Accumulations will remain minor and mostly confined to grassy surfaces, but some slush will be possible on the roads. Skies will again turn partly cloudy during the afternoon as high pressure moves in. Temperatures will be a little cooler than Tuesday, but still in the low 40s. 

Early Day Flurries Leads to Breezy Tuesday

Most of which left the household this morning were greeted to some light snow as a weak disturbance moved through the Upper Midwest. Snow chances were pretty quick to wrap up, as this band of light precipitation was moving east at approximately 50 to 60 miles per hour. It did however make roads wet, and in some spots slick during the morning commute this morning. But now that this band is sliding to the east, it won't be a major factor for the rest of today.

The focus in the forecast becomes the gusty winds we'll see around the mid-day hours. A gusty southwesterly to westerly wind of 15 to 25 miles per hour is going to develop by late morning. Through late morning and early afternoon, wind gusts could approach 30 to even 40 miles per hour. Although highs today are going to climb into the middle to upper 40s, these gusty winds will hold wind chills values are in the 30s periodically. Skies will gradually clear during the afternoon, but clouds return overnight into early Wednesday.

Another quick-moving system, this time an Alberta clipper, is forecast to drop through the Midwest early Wednesday. This could bring another round of very light snow to the region, but the bulk of the accumulating snow looks to remain just to the north in our southern Wisconsin counties. Similar to this morning, accumulations will be just enough to create few slick spots during the morning commute. This could slow you down Wednesday morning, especially if you're commute is before sunrise. Snow looks to taper off after 7-8 AM leaving the Stateline with lingering cloud cover. Clouds may be slow to clear at first, but some sunshine is likely by the afternoon. Highs will once again end up seasonably warm as temperatures climb into the low to mid 40s Wednesday afternoon.

Ready for the 50s??? Thursday features the warmest temperatures through the rest of the work week, with highs forecast to climb into the lower to middle 50s. As a cold front does approach the area early on in the day,  which could lead to a few showers to start. This looks to be primarily in the form of rain, as lows will be very mild to start Thursday. Friday looks a bit cooler, as our surface winds will be straight out of the north. Highs will back fall into the lower 40s, leading to the only below average day of the 7 day. This late week cool down is brief, as temperatures look to warm steadily into the weekend. By Sunday, highs could again this week approach 60°.

A Mix of Rain/Snow Possible Early Tuesday, and Again Wednesday, Morning

A couple of quick moving clipper systems will move through Plains and Midwest impacting parts of northern Illinois and southern Wisconsin the next couple of mornings. The first clipper will move through the Plains, into the Upper Midwest, mid-day Tuesday. Cloud cover will increase Monday evening, leaving skies mostly cloudy during the overnight. A flurry or two is possible across southern Lee and DeKalb counties with another system moving well to the south.

Accumulations are not likely with Tuesday's clipper during the morning, but surface temperatures will be below freezing and this could cause some slick spots during the morning commute. Most of the precipitation should be done with shortly after 8am/9am. West winds will then increase during the day, gusting close to 30 mph, bringing temperatures into the mid 40s for the afternoon.

Another quick moving clipper system will pass

through northern Illinois and southern Wisconsin overnight Tuesday, into Wednesday morning. This, too, could bring some light snow early Wednesday to parts of the area with a dusting possible. High pressure will then move in for the afternoon with temperatures warming into the mid 40s. Both Tuesday and Wednesday mornings commute will see some precipitation, but the impacts are expected to remain low. Just like for Tuesday morning, a few slick spots will be possible early Wednesday morning.

Illinois Severe Weather Preparedness

The week of March 1st-7th is Severe Weather Preparedness Week in Illinois. It's a time to sit down with your family, co-workers and friends and review your severe weather plan, or come up with one if you don't already have one. As we move into Meteorological Spring (March, April, May) severe weather becomes more common. So, before the first watch or warning is issued, take time now to know what to do and where to go for safety, whether it be in your home, school or workplace.

The weekly NOAA Weather Radio test will also be done tomorrow, Tuesday, March 3rd to coincide with Illinois Severe Weather Preparedness week. This means your weather radio will go off tomorrow at 10am, but remember it's only a test. It will be a great time to review your severe weather plan. There will also be a social media tornado drill at 10am, as well. The National Weather Service will post a test tornado drill to social media, Facebook and Twitter, with the weather radio test. You're encouraged to 'like' it, 'share' it and 'retweet' it to help reach as many people as possible.

For more information on how to prepare and plan for severe weather, visit the National Weather Service website.

NICE FIRST WEEK OF MARCH AHEAD

We had an amazing open to March today in the Stateline area with a high of 61 degrees - 21 degrees above our normal high of 40 for this date and a hopeful indication of weather ahead.  While our Monday won't be nearly as warm as Sunday, it will still be above normal and the trend will be for temperatures to continue to rise. 

We typically see a significant increase in temperatures this month - from an average high of 40 degrees on March 1 to 54 degrees by the end of the month.  We will see a little bit of everything this week with a chance of a mix of rain and snow early on Tuesday, and highs that top out in the 50's or higher on Thursday and Sunday.  Typically March comes in like a lion, but this year it looks like a lamb . . .  so far!  Have a great week!