Steady Rain Continues Monday Evening - Rivers Expected to Rise Later This Week

Rainfall totals through Monday evening have already reached close to an inch in Rockford and over an inch in Sterling, with an additional quarter of an inch (possibly higher) expected through midnight. Copious amounts of moisture have been streaming northern Illinois and southern Wisconsin thanks to a very active sub-tropical jet, which even caused a few rumbles of thunder before the sun came up Monday.

As low pressure moves into northwest and

northern Illinois between 8pm and 9pm, the rain will become a little more scattered, and less widespread, but still falling area wide. Most of the rain should be moving east around midnight, with only a few lingering showers through Tuesday morning. Drier air following a cold front later Monday night will help bring an end to most of the rain.

The moderate rain has caused quite a bit of standing and ponding water on the roadways, Flood Watch has been issued for the Sugar River near Brodhead, WI for Tuesday morning, lasting through Thursday as the river is forecast to rise into minor flood stage either late Monday night or early Tuesday morning.

ditches and backyards Monday, which is expected to continue into Tuesday morning. Soil moisture across much of northern Illinois and southern Wisconsin is within the 95-99 percentile, which means some of the rain that has come down has likely runoff into local creeks, streams and rivers. A

The Pecatonica and Rock Rivers are currently below action stage and not experiencing any flooding as of yet, but are forecast to rise into action stage at various locations such as Freeport, Shirland, Latham Park and possibly Byron later this week. Those living along the river should continue to monitor river stages. A few showers are possible late Tuesday night into Wednesday morning, but are not expected to be as much as what we've had this afternoon and evening. 

Soaking Rain Sticks Around into Tonight

Wouldn't it be great if the weather from this past weekend carried on into the new work week? That would be lovely in my opinion. Plenty of sunshine and highs in the 50s and 60s. Unfortunately for this Monday, that isn't going to be the case. We'll see temps stick around the 50s, but the sun is going to have a slim chance of making an appearance. A deepening system over the central plains with tropical Pacific roots has brought a rainy start to our Monday. Before today, the Rockford International Airport has recorded 3.32" in 2020, with .71" (January 10th) being the highest daily rainfall of the year. There is a good chance the soaking rain we see today could eclipse that when this is all said and done.

Unlike last Thursday's system, this mid-latitude cyclone has plenty of moisture to work with and it's all thanks to the subtropical jet. This feature as you can see using water vapor imagery is pulling in rich moisture from the Pacific Ocean and spreading it across the Midwest. This has many, including the Stateline area, waking up to a rainy start. This morning, rain began to fill in across northern Illinois and southern Wisconsin. Even a few rumbles of thunder were heard in our southern most areas in Lee county, and south of viewing area. The thunder chances are going to remain primarily confined to the morning, but rain chances are all day. On top of the rain, strong winds will most likely lead to wind-driven showers. Southwesterly winds will stay in the range of 15 and 20 mph, with gusts close to 30-35 mph.

Before you head out the door today, be sure to grab the rain gear, including your umbrellas and rain jackets. It will definitely be needed as rain will likely stick around for the entirety of our Monday, with pockets of moderate to heavy rain developing during the late afternoon and evening hours. Once your work day comes to a close, be sure to give yourself extra time and be aware traveling home this evening. These pockets of heavier downpours might slow things down for the commute later on today.

The last of the rain will begin to taper off between midnight and 3 AM as a cold front sweeps through. This boundary will help usher in a cooler and drier air mass for the day tomorrow. Once the rain tapers off, cloudy skies will linger into the predawn hours. As far as rainfall totals, models this morning have slightly come down leaving most with .50" to 1" of rainfall. There will be a chance for higher amounts locally for areas that are impacted by thunderstorms. The good news is, early morning clouds will give way to increasingly sunny skies Tuesday afternoon with highs near 50°. Enjoy the dry conditions during the day while you can, because clouds increase late Tuesday ahead of rain and snow chances early Wednesday.

Widespread Rainfall Expected Monday

The sun-filled skies from the weekend will soon fill with cloud cover Sunday night as an area of low pressure moves in from the southwest. Skies will remain mostly clear and dry for much of Sunday evening, but cloud cover will begin to thicken as moisture is pulled in from the southwest. This increase in cloud cover and moisture is coming on the heels of a very strong wind field aloft that will continue the strong to gusty winds through much of the day Monday.

The amount of moisture present in the atmosphere will also increase, and is already taking place to the west across the Plains as rain showers are lifting northeast across parts of Oklahoma and Kansas. This increase in moisture will lead to widespread rainfall during the day Monday, lasting through much of Monday evening.

Clouds will increase after midnight Sunday with scattered rain showers developing to the southwest between midnight and 4am, lifting into northern Illinois before sunrise Monday. Strong winds roughly 3,000-5,000ft above the surface will continue to transport moisture and a warm air mass northward which could lead to a rumble of thunder, or two, early Monday morning. As strong southwest winds continue throughout the day widespread, and at times heavy, rain will continue into the afternoon and evening. While a rumble of thunder remains possible during the day, extensive cloud cover will limit any potential for stronger storms across northern Illinois, with a better chance remaining across central Illinois and Missouri.

Most of the rain will be wrapping up a little before midnight Monday with totals ranging from half an inch, up to potentially an inch, in a few locations. Flooding is not too much of a risk at the moment, but standing and ponding water is definitely possible with some of the heavier rainfall. This will be the most amount of rain the Stateline has had since the middle to end of January. 

Spring-Like Warmth for Second Weekend in a Row

It has been an absolutely beautiful March weekend with temperatures Saturday warming into the 50s, and on Sunday into the low to mid 60s! The only downfall to the weekend has been the wind, at times gusting to 35 mph. Gusty winds will continue through the rest of Sunday evening, picking right back up during the day on Monday.

This has been the second warm and dry weekend in a row with highs warming into the 50s and

60s. The warm air will continue Monday, but widespread rainfall arrives by morning, lasting through much evening and into the first half of the night. So, if you haven't already, get out and enjoy the rest of Sunday evening as the sun won't set until a little before 7pm tonight. 

Wind-Driven Showers and Light Snow Thursday Evening

A strong area of low pressure moving through Upper Great Lakes Thursday evening pulled a cold front through southern Wisconsin and northern Illinois earlier in the day. Winds were quick to increase ahead of the front, as well as behind the front, gusting close to 40mph during the afternoon and evening.

While there was a little sunshine during the first half of the afternoon, cloud cover was quick to roll in with the arrival of a much cooler air mass (which has dropped temperatures into the 30s Thursday evening). Strong lift in the atmosphere, associated with the low to the north, has allowed widespread showers and snow showers to develop, now moving into parts of Illinois and Wisconsin. Overall precipitation will remain light with little, if any, accumulation expected. The rain/snow mix will continue through Midnight with drier air moving in for the start of Friday.

Strong Winds Continue - Wind Advisory Issued

A Wind Advisory has been issued for southern Wisconsin and northern Illinois, beginning Thursday evening and lasting through early Friday morning. Currently, wind gusts are between 35-40mph but are forecast to increase as colder air arrives from the northwest. Northwest winds during the overnight will gust as high as 45mph through early Friday, with gusts still around 30mph through mid-morning. This will make travel for the morning commute a little difficult, especially for high profile vehicles.

High pressure will eventually move in from the west during the day Friday and this will help ease the wind a little throughout the afternoon. Winds will turn fairly calm Friday night, early Saturday morning, with temperatures dipping into the mid 20s. Southwest winds will increase during the day Saturday and Sunday, bringing temperatures into the 50s and 60s. 

Cold Front Brings Blustery Winds and Scattered Showers for Thursday

We can call the forecast for our Thursday a "mixed bag" if you will. Today features a little bit of everything from sunshine early on, to windy conditions, to wind whipped scattered showers. Winds were quick to pick up this morning as an strong pressure gradient developed between a low pressure system in Minnesota and a high pressure near the Ohio River Valley. Along with that low pressure system is a cold front that is draped over eastern Iowa, and the western portion of the Stateline. This frontal boundary cold going is also going to bring in blustery winds for Thursday, but it could also bring in a few scattered showers during our afternoon.

Sustained winds have already climbed into the range of 20-25 mph, with gusts closer to 30 mph. A narrow band of light shower activity is currently progressing through the Stateline. This will bring a quick passing shower or two to the area between 10 AM and noon. Surface winds as this band sweeps through are forecast to steadily increase, leading to gusts closer to 35 miles per hour late this morning into the early afternoon. 

This cold front should make it's way through between noon and 2 PM, allowing colder air to spill into the region. Another round of spotty shower activity will develop this afternoon behind the front, starting out a patchy drizzle and light rain showers. As cold air filters in, this will help change thing to more of a mix of rain, snow, and even a type precipitation we call graupel. If you haven't heard of graupel, this type of precipitation first forms as snow. These snowflakes will then be rimed in layers by supercooled water droplets from rising air in the showers. Graupel is also known as "soft" hail because it forms and grows in the same way small hail does.

Precipitation should wrap up before midnight as drier air quickly rushes in behind our exiting low pressure. Following the cold frontal passage, our surface winds will change to the west, and could approach 40 mph at times. Blustery conditions are expected to persist through the first half of Friday, calming down by tomorrow evening. High temperatures will climb into the low 40s due to the cooler air that filters in behind the front, but feel more like the low 30s at times. An area of high pressure that settled over the central plains will bring plenty of sunshine for the end of the work week. The good news is, this dry pattern looks to last into the weekend.