Drought conditions continue for the Stateline

 

Moderate drought conditions have expanded a little further south and now cover a good portion of Ogle and Lee counties, as well as extending further west into northwest Illinois.  The severe drought conditions over far northeast Illinois have improved slightly.

 Much of southern Wisconsin remains under moderate drought, with far southeast Wisconsin still considered in severe drought conditions.  The northwest portion of the state has now been placed in the abnormally dry category as quite a bit of central Wisconsin has received rainfall over the last couple of weeks, bypassing the northwest and south portions of the state.

The last significant rain to be recorded at the Rockford Airport was back on the 9th of August when over two inches of rain fell.  That was also the day when over half a dozen tornadoes touched down in northern Illinois during the afternoon and evening.  Since that day, the rain has been really hit or miss for many across the area.  There has been a few spots in the area that have had some decent downpours within the last week, but those have been very isolated leaving much of the Stateline dry.

 

The dry conditions will continue Sunday night but there may be a few light showers moving through Monday morning. Active thunderstorms are then possible over the next few days, some of which could bring some heavier rainfall, across the Midwest and Great Lakes.  Whether or not those storms move over the area this week are yet to be seen.

Cold Front This Evening Sets The Stage for a Comfortable Sunday

Cooling Down Quick:

A cold front swinging in from the west has helped pop up a few light showers this evening. Thankfully, these have been spotty and brief in nature, and will more than likely come to an end around or shortly after sunset. 

Once this frontal boundary is through, conditions will dry out, resulting in a quick temperature drop overnight. Sunday begins on a cooler note, with most of our local airports falling into the upper 50s and low 60s. This cooler start to our Sunday will set the stage for a short-lived break from the heat and humidity before temps quickly climb again early next week.

Comfortable Sunday:

Sunday marks the final day of the Winnebago County Fair. Of the days the fair is running this year, Sunday in general looks like the best day weather-wise to go. Behind Saturday evening's frontal passage, an area of high pressure quickly settles in. This will keep the sunshine around for the end of the weekend. 

High temperatures drop into the mid 80s Sunday afternoon, which is just slightly above average for late-August. Along with the cool down comes a drop in humidity, with dew points in the mid to upper 50s. That, along with a light northeasterly wind, will help make it feel comfortable for any late-weekend plans, like the Winnebago County Fair. Gates open at noon and close at 6PM.

August's Full Moon: 

Sunday night looks to begin on a dry note, making for a great opportunity to view August's full moon. I'll be honest with you. I had no idea that the full moon for August was also known as the "Sturgeon" moon until earlier this afternoon. 

But if you're wondering why it is known as the "sturgeon" moon, it's because this is historically the time of year when sturgeon are fished from the Great Lakes. Forecast-wise, we start off the night with a few passing clouds. Guidance then shows a little more cloud cover moving in after midnight, which is in response to a cluster of showers and thunderstorms that approach the region from the west. That's why I think if you want to head outside and view the full moon, the earlier the better.

Few thunderstorms possible for Saturday; Heat index back near 100 degrees next week

 

Cloud cover will slowly increase through the night Friday as a cold front comes in from the west.  Ongoing thunderstorms moving into Minnesota and Iowa Friday night will continue to move east, but weaken as they near the Mississippi River.  This is the result of a ridge of high pressure located over southern Wisconsin and northern Illinois.  We could see a few showers and isolated thunderstorms around sunrise Saturday, through mid-morning, but a lot of the rain will be quickly fading.

As the cold front begins moving through the Stateline, an increase in showers and isolated thunderstorms will be possible early afternoon.  Skies will most likely have a bit more cloud cover during the day, limiting some of the instability for thunderstorms to really grow.  A few stronger storms may occur just east of the immediate area, more late afternoon and evening, as the cold front moves towards Lake Michigan.

Skies will begin to clear following the cold front Saturday evening with a much drier air mass moving in.  This will bring temperatures Saturday night down into the low 60s and pave the way for a very comfortable Sunday. 

The pattern, then, may turn a little more active next week as a strong ridge of high pressure builds across the south.  This will place the outer edge of the jet stream very close to the Midwest beginning

next Monday.  At the surface, a warm front will begin lifting through Illinois into Wisconsin Monday and Tuesday.  Thunderstorms will be possible as the front pulls through.  With the jet stream close by we may see several disturbances move through.  Each disturbance (mini low) that passes could help enhance the risk for thunderstorms, especially at night. 

However, if the storms move through during the

day then the chance for temperatures reaching the low 90s would be lowered.  If the storms move through during the night then afternoon high temperatures will warm well into the 90s with a heat index reaching, or surpassing, the triple digit mark.  This could last for several days next week. 

Foggy Friday Morning, Summer-Like Feel Sticks Around into the Weekend

Toasty Thursday:

For the 25th time this year, the Chicago-Rockford International Airport saw it's daily high temperature climb past the 90-degree mark. If you're keeping score, this put us 10 90-degree days over what we typically see on average for the entire year. Following another foggy start to the day, temperatures look to quickly climb into the afternoon, making for a hot and steamy end to the work week. 

Foggy AM Commute:

Dense fog has once again become a part of our morning routine. Only two counties in our forecast area, McHenry County in N. Illinois and Walworth County in S. Wisconsin, are under a Dense Fog Advisory until 8AM. But if you plan on heading out the door early this morning, plan on taking extra time for your travels. Dense fog will be patchy, meaning it will be dense in one area and not so dense in another. Once the sun really begins to warm things up, the dense fog will lift, leaving us with mixed sunshine.

Very Summer-Like Afternoon: 

 Really, the forecast today is very similar to the weather we had yesterday. The sunshine, along with a decent southeast wind, will make it feel hot and very humid by the afternoon, with highs in the low 90s. The heat and humidity may lead to a late-day shower or thunderstorm, especially to the east of I-39. Otherwise, today remains fairly dry. The thunderstorm threat today remains well to the west and northwest along a cold front. As that frontal boundary approaches, clouds will increase overnight, leading to a better chance for showers and thunderstorms into Saturday morning. 

Fair Forecast:

If you plan on going to the Winnebago County Fair this weekend, Saturday will be the more rainy of the two days. Early on in the day, thunderstorms will be capable of producing heavy rain and gusty winds. Once we actually get the cold front to pass through the Stateline, which should be early to mid afternoon, conditions look to quiet down, cool down, and become less humid for Sunday. The end of the weekend features a small break from the grueling heat and humidity, as highs top out in the mid 80s. With dew points in the mid to upper 50s, it's going to be very comfortable afternoon to head to the fair. All I have to say is take it all in. Because with southwest winds returning, the forecast will become hot and humid again starting Monday.

Foggy Start, Late-Summer Heat Showing No Signs of Slowing Down

Foggy Start Yet Again:

Once again, northern Illinois and southern Wisconsin is waking up to a round of patchy dense fog. The fog isn't dense enough for the issuance of a dense fog advisory. However, if you plan on traveling during the morning commute, it'll be important to give yourself a few extra minutes for travel. Fog should linger into the mid-morning hours, giving way to a mix of clouds and sunshine.

Hot & Humid Thursday:

Given that we won't have as much forcing to work with in the atmosphere, rain chances today will be slimmer than yesterday. But when you add the heat and humidity into the equation, it may be enough to pop-up an isolated afternoon sprinkle or shower. Otherwise, a good chunk of our Thursday remains dry, with highs close to the 90-degree mark. Skies look to clear some as we head into the overnight hours. The combination of that, along with very light surface winds, will allow another layer of fog to develop by sunrise Friday.

Weekend Preview:

Unfortunately, this late-summer heat isn't showing any signs of slowing down as we move forward into the upcoming weekend. Guidance shows a dry but hot end to the work week, as high temperatures will once again top out near 90°. With dew points sitting near the 70° mark, heat indices Friday afternoon are expected to climb into the low 90s. So, if you plan on attending Rockford's City Market, or the Winnebago County Fair, please make heat safety a big priority. 

Saturday's Chances:

Moisture will continue to increase into Friday night as a cold front approaches from the west-northwest. This will help bring a round of showers, isolated thunderstorms to the area overnight into Saturday morning. Over the last day or so, models have come into better agreement on the timing of Saturday's cold front, bringing it through late in the afternoon. Along with it comes perhaps our best chance for showers and storms. As of this morning, the threat for severe weather remains low. But we still have a good chunk of time for things to change, so make sure to stay up-to-date with the forecast.

Isolated showers Wednesday evening produced very localized heavy rainfall

 

Temperatures Wednesday were the warmest they've been all week, rising to 88 degrees in Rockford.  But the heat index for some pushed well into the 90s, especially to the south where dew point temperatures were the highest.

 A lake breeze moving inland through Chicago produced quite a few thunderstorms early Wednesday afternoon.  Locally, we had a few very isolated showers and thunderstorms develop along a weak surface trough (boundary) over northern Illinois.  Weak winds in the atmosphere did not allow those showers and storms to move, causing them to remain fairly stationary for a time during the late afternoon and evening.  Radar estimates north of Byron and Rockford, right around Loves Par, received anywhere from one to two inches.  Elsewhere it remained bone dry.

 Widely isolated showers will continue through the early overnight as the weak surface boundary remains in place.  This will also keep a little cloud cover around for some through the night.  Where the skies are clear fog is likely to develop by early Thursday morning.  Temperatures Wednesday night will fall into the mid 60s.  Isolated showers and thunderstorms are possible once again Thursday, but some of the forcing that was present on Wednesday will be much lighter for Thursday afternoon. Highs on Thursday will warm near 90 degrees.

Patchy Morning Fog, Hot & Humid Stretch Begins Today

Morning Fog:

With a little more moisture and calm winds overnight, the Stateline is waking up to another round of patchy dense fog this morning. Visibility, especially in low-lying areas and river valleys, could drop to a quarter mile or less into mid-morning. If you plan on heading out the door early, I'd give yourself a few extra minutes for travel just to be on the safe side. 

Once the fog is out of the equation, mixed sunshine and a light southeast wind will make for a hot and humid afternoon across the region. Highs look to top out in the mid to upper 80s, with heat indices approaching the 90-degree mark. Tagging along with the heat and humidity comes a chance for us to see some rain.

Afternoon Rain Chances: 

A weak disturbance tracking on through the region this afternoon will bring enough lift with it to pop-up a few showers and thunderstorms. Now, chances will be best between 1PM-8PM, and will be isolated in nature. 

When we say "isolated", that means not everyone will see rain during the later half of the day. Thankfully, severe weather is NOT expected. But some of the stronger thunderstorms will be capable of producing heavy downpours and strong winds. Once rain chances come to an end by sunset, skies will remain partly cloudy overnight, with another round of patchy dense fog developing before sunrise Thursday morning. Again, you may want to give yourself a few extra minutes for travel.

Hot & Humid Pattern:

Ahead of an approaching cold front, dew points across the region will remain near the 70-degree mark for the rest of the work week. Yes, this means another stretch of hot and humid weather lies ahead for northern Illinois and southern Wisconsin. 

Our daily high temperatures will climb a few more degrees Thursday and Friday, topping out near the 90-degree mark. Heat indices will also land in the low 90s, with the worst of the humidity being felt Friday afternoon. Similar to today, the rest of the work week features an isolated chance for a few afternoon showers and thunderstorms. However, the best chance over the next 7 days will be with the cold front on Saturday as it passes though the Stateline.