Drier skies for Sunday evening; Severe weather possible Monday afternoon

 

After a somewhat rainy and stormy Sunday afternoon and early evening, the rest of Sunday evening should stay dry.  The storms Sunday were the result of a cold front and strong jet stream winds close by, pulling in moisture from the south.  A break in the rain will continue for most through about Midnight.  That's when the low level jet is expected to pick bac up again bringing the return of showers and isolated thunderstorms by Monday morning.

Temperatures didn't get quite as warm Sunday, holding in the low 70s for most; although highs reached the mid and upper 70s a little further to the south.  With dew point temperatures still in the 60s Sunday night, it'll be warm and muggy with overnight lows only dropping into the mid 60s.

Low pressure to the north will pull a cold front halfway through the Stateline Monday morning, but another low over the Southern Plains will help

draw the front back north and west by the afternoon.  Non-severe thunderstorms are possible to the start the day Monday, with a few of the stronger cores capable of producing some hail.  The risk for strong to even severe storms will then gradually increase with the arrival of another low and cold front by late Monday afternoon and evening.

The Storm Prediction Center has placed the

majority of the Stateline under a slight risk for severe storms, meaning if all ingredients come together there is a decent chance severe weather could occur with all hazards of severe weather possible: damaging winds, hail and even tornadoes.  The tornado risk, however, will be conditional on just how much sunshine we are able to see during the day.  It's important to note that even a little bit of sun, with the strong wind dynamics aloft, could increase the severe risk locally Monday.

It's not unusual to get a second 'peak' of severe weather during the Fall season.  This is because as the jet stream begins to transition form a more Summer-like pattern to a Fall one, winds within the jet stream begin to strengthen.  The strengthening of the jet stream winds cause large low pressure systems to develop - like the two we have coming this week - and stronger cold fronts to move through.

The strong lows pull up unseasonably warm and humid air that then clashes with the drier and colder air behind the cold front.  This second peak of severe weather often times occurs during the months of October and November. 

The timeline for severe thunderstorms locally appears to be highest between 3pm and 9pm as an arcing cold front moves across west-central Illinois, and low pressure nears northwest Illinois.  It's near the low and arcing cold front we will have to watch for any individual, rotating, thunderstorms that would pose a tornado risk.  By Monday night the low will be passing over southern Wisconsin, moving to the east by Tuesday morning.  Make sure to remain weather aware Monday, knowing where you'll be in the afternoon and evening, and have a plan in place should severe thunderstorms occur.

Locally dense fog possible Friday morning

 

A DENSE FOG ADVISORY has been issued for Green, Rock and Walworth counties until 10am Friday as locally dense fog has developed, especially over southern Wisconsin.

Low pressure currently moving across northern Illinois will lift north and northeast through Friday.  As winds have turned light, high levels of moisture in the atmosphere have allowed areas of fog to develop; especially in locations where some clearing of the cloud cover has taken place.  Where the clearing lasts for some time Thursday night, locally dense fog could be possible.

Visibility to the north in Wisconsin has quickly dropped over the last couple of hours, with a few locations down near zero mile visibility.  The significant reduction in visibility will be a cause for concern for the morning commute Friday, so please drive with caution.  

Recent rainfall slowly chips away at ongoing drought

Rainfall totals from last Wednesday night into Thursday added up to over an inch across parts of northern Illinois, slowly chipping away at the ongoing drought.

While moderate to severe drought conditions persist, the added rainfall has helped a little to

replenish the moisture in the ground, but much more is needed.  Much of northern Illinois is still considered in a severe drought, with extreme drought conditions over far northeast Illinois.

Little change was noted in the latest drought monitor from last week to this week as most experienced dry and warm conditions.  The showers earlier in the week and weekend didn't help too much with the dry conditions, but the rainfall total was much needed.  Additional showers and isolated thunderstorms will continue Thursday evening, lasting into Friday morning, as an area of low pressure spins up from the south.  Currently that low sits in central Illinois and will be moving overhead by Friday morning.

While the rain may not be as widespread as what it was Thursday morning, scattered showers will continue into Friday until the low pulls away further to the east and northeast by Friday evening.  Additional rainfall totals through Friday may add up to another quarter of an inch, with locally higher amounts under the heavier downpours/thunderstorms.

Skies will then dry out heading into Friday evening and the weekend.  After highs warm to the mid 70s Friday, temperatures near 80 degrees look likely Saturday.  Saturday evening a warm front passes through holding temperatures in the mid/upper 60s Saturday night.  Temperatures Sunday will warm into the low 80s.  A somewhat active pattern then sets in for the start of next week with another low lifting up from the south Monday, and then again Wednesday.

Healthy Dose of Rain on the Way, Showers Linger into Friday

Rainy Thursday Ahead:

The Stateline remained rain-free Wednesday, with a decent amount of sunshine making an appearance late in the afternoon. But with an area of low pressure continuing it's northward journey, clouds were very quick to fill in, with showers moving in before Thursday's morning commute. So before you head out the door this morning, be sure to have your rain coat on, and your umbrella with you.

The more widespread rain looks to push through during the morning hours, with the activity becoming a little more isolated by the afternoon. Tagging along with this afternoon's chances will be the potential for a few embedded thunderstorms. Thankfully, severe weather is not expected but  just know that gusty winds and brief downpours will be possible with any storm that were to develop. All in all, today will not be an all out washout as dry hours will be likely. 

Showers Linger:

Due to today's cloud cover, rain chances, and light easterly wind, temperatures will struggle to climb, only topping out in the low 70s. Which if you're keeping out is still considered above-average for this time of year we we're normally falling into the mid to upper 60s. As this low-pressure system spirals into the Stateline overnight, scattered showers will be possible into Friday morning.

 Overall, modes have remained consistent with much of the area receiving .5" to as much as an 1". So far this October, we've managed to pick up 1.21" of rain, more than double what we received during the month of September. It'll still take a few heavy rain events for us to catch up to our annual deficit. But it's nice to see mother nature finally answering our prayers with some much needed rainfall.

October's Rainy, Gloomy Start Continues, Rain Chances Move in Wednesday Evening

Rainy, Gloom Start:

After coming off a bone-dry September, we've been blessed to observed more than an inch of rainfall during the first 5 days of October. Considering the fact that we are sitting more roughly 13.5" below average for the year, any rain chance at this point is welcomed with open arms. While much of Wednesday remains dry, a system to our south will bring our next rain chance beginning around sunset.

Rain Chances Late:

With no breakage in our cloud cover overnight, the Stateline is waking up to another cloudy, and well-above average start to the day. Unlike yesterday, there will be a decent opportunity for us to experience some sunshine, mainly during the mid-day hours. As a system to our south slowly drifts to the north, cloud cover will be quick to move back in, with rain chances not too far behind. 

Guidance does show a majority of our daylight hours remaining dry, with our first opportunity for a few light showers beginning after 6PM-7PM. As we move forward into the overnight hours, chances remain scattered in nature. Thursday I think will be the day where it would be more important for you to have the rain gear if you're heading outside.

Thunderstorm potential will be a bit higher, thanks to a increase in moisture and instability with the lifting low-pressure system. While severe weather is NOT anticipated during this rainy, gloomy period, there could be a few embedded rumbles of thunder as well as some occasional heavy downpours. Once this low-pressure system shifts to our east-northeast, conditions dry out for the remainder of Friday and for much of the weekend.

Rainfall Potential: 

When it comes to rainfall amounts, models have remained consistent over the past few days, with much of the Stateline picking up .5"-1". For those areas that are impacted by a thunderstorm, amounts could be closer to 1.25". While these upcoming rain chances won't help the drought situation much, I think it's safe to say that any rainfall at this point will be much appreciated. Southwest winds look to move in for the upcoming weekend, pushing our daily high temperatures in the low 80s. It won't be until late Sunday into Monday morning that the Stateline will see it's next opportunity for rain. 

Cloudy Skies Linger, Rain Chances Not Too Far Behind

Cloud Cover Lingers:

It's no lie when I say that we've endured a cloudy stretch of weather as of late. In fact, the average cloud cover at the Rockford International Airport has been at or above 90% since Saturday. For those that are looking for less clouds and more sunshine, I'm sorry to say that the sunshine will be hard to come by. 

With a pretty expansive area of high pressure sitting over the Great Lakes, winds throughout the day will be out of the northeast. This will help transport a good amount of low-level moisture off of Lake Michigan, allowing this morning's cloud cover to stick around well into the afternoon hours. As of a result, high temperatures will also be impacted, with most if not all spots topping out in the low 70s. Moving forward, 70s will be the name of the game. However, this above-average trend does come with a few rain chances.

Jet Lifts North:

With the jet stream well to our north, an upper-level low over the deep south will have nothing to "steer" so to speak. This will leave it to just meander over the Southern Plains and the Midwest over the next couple of days. Guidance does indicate that this upper-level low will slowly drift to the north, allowing moisture to increase during the day on Wednesday. 

Upcoming Rain Chances:

Mixed sunshine early Wednesday morning will give way to an increase in cloud cover by the afternoon, with a small chance for a few scattered showers quick to follow. However, it does look like the more structured rain chance with this system holds off until Thursday as the surface low swings into the region. As for rainfall potential, forecast models continue to show most of our spots picking up half an inch or more between Wednesday and Thursday. Of course, such a scenario would be warmly welcomed, considering the fact that we received a little over an inch this past weekend. 

Steadier showers return later in the week; Temperatures continue to remain above average

 

A few light showers will continue to rotate around low pressure over the eastern Great Lakes Monday evening.  These showers won't add up to much and should mostly come to an end after sunset.  Skies are expected to remain mostly cloudy with temperatures falling into the low 60s.  Low clouds and patchy fog are possible through early Tuesday.

The low responsible for the showers and thunderstorms over the weekend will continue to weaken, drifting to the south the Tuesday and Wednesday.  At the same time, high pressure will build to the north over the Upper Great Lakes.  Winds will hold from the East the next couple of days, keeping temperatures in the low to mid 70s.  Moisture pulled off of Lake Michigan will help keep the cloud cover around, but we should see a little more sunshine at least for the first half of the day Wednesday.

Cloud cover and rain showers are then set to move back in late Wednesday and Thursday as another low lifts north from the Gulf.  This low will pull more Gulf moisture northward with it, with scattered showers developing and lasting through the day on Thursday.  There may even be a few isolated thunderstorms during the afternoon.  A few of those showers will linger into Friday before temperatures warm back near, if not in the low, 80s for the weekend.

Despite the cooler trend to kick off the beginning of October, temperatures are still running a good 5-10 degrees above average.  Also running above average are our dew point temperatures.  During a time when we typically feel more of those crisp, comfortable afternoons, it has felt a little more muggy.  that's because dew point temperatures have been holding around 60 degrees (low to mid 60s for some) the last several days.  Those higher dew point temperatures will stick around through the week, peaking most likely Thursday and early Friday.  Temperatures are set to remain above average into next week.