Gusty Winds Bring Warmer Temperatures Ahead of the Thanksgiving Holiday

What Goes Up Must Come Down:

Even though we're still technically in the fall season until the 21st of December, old man winter has made his presence known on multiple occasions during the month of November. Mostly in the form of huge temperature swings such as the one we encountered over the last 48 hours. 

Highs Monday afternoon ranged from the low 30s to the upper 30s, falling well below the average high for November 22nd which is 44-degrees. With that being said, winds will take a turn to the southwest beginning today, allowing a warming trend to commence that looks to continue into the middle of the work week.

Gusty Stretch Ahead:

Sunshine continues, with a southerly to southwesterly breeze developing by the afternoon. This breeze will help get our temperatures out of the 30s and push them into the mid to upper 40s. Winds at times will be capable of peaking around 20-25 mph, so it shouldn't bring any impacts to those traveling during the evening commute. 

But that can't be said for those who plan to travel on Wednesday as the pressure gradient looks to tighten up a bit more, resulting in an uptick in winds. Gusts both overnight tonight and throughout the day on Wednesday could range from 25 to 30 mph, with a few isolated gusts up to 35 mph. This may make traveling a bit bumpy for those hitting the roads for the Thanksgiving holiday.

Wednesday's Cold Front:

Clouds are expected to thicken up as these strong south-southwesterly winds helps pull in more moisture into the Stateline. This will eventually lead to a chance for a few light showers late in the day into Thanksgiving morning, with much of the heavier activity remaining south of the Stateline. 

Believe it or not, Wednesday is actually going to be the warmest day of the next seven as highs peak in the low to mid 50s. Once the cold front marches through Wednesday night, temperatures are expected to plummet back to the 30s for the Thanksgiving holiday. Much of the day remains dry, with some clearing possible by the afternoon. Friday features a similar forecast, though temperatures will end up cooler in the low 30s.

Warm up expected leading into Thanksgiving Day holiday

Temperatures Monday afternoon were quite a bit cooler compared to the 50s that were recorded over the weekend.  Highs throughout the area Monday struggled to make it out of the 40s, holding in the mid to upper 30s, roughly 5-10 degrees colder than the average high for the end of November. 

A weak upper level disturbance moving through the Midwest will bring a few more clouds overhead for some Monday evening, but should clear out after 8pm/9pm.  As high pressure moves closer to the Stateline, temperatures will plummet through the 20s, down into the mid teens overnight.  A few of the more typical cold spots could dip into the low teens, from Rochelle to Freeport.  Wind speeds, however, will be lighter than Monday morning but wind chills will still hoover around 10 degrees. 

High pressure will move into the Southeast, shifting winds around to the south Tuesday.  After a cold start Tuesday morning, afternoon temperatures will warm into the low to mid 40s.  Wind speeds, however, will also increase gusting to 25  mph during the afternoon, increasing to around 30-35 mph Tuesday night and Wednesday.

A slight increase in moisture Tuesday night will allow a little more cloud cover to build holding
overnight lows in the mid to upper 30s.  The warmer start will set the stage for a much warmer Wednesday as high temperatures climb into the low 50s.  A delay in cloud cover could even bring highs into the mid and upper 50s!

But a cold front moving in overnight Wednesday will bring temperatures crashing back down Thursday afternoon, with numbers hoovering in the

low 30s for much of the day.  Blustery northwest winds will also hold wind chills in the 20s.  Thursday night we see temperatures drop into the teens, rising only into the 30s for Friday afternoon.  A couple clipper-like systems moving in our direction for the start of the weekend could bring in some precipitation, both Friday afternoon and Saturday night into Sunday.  Right now the chance for that appears low, something to monitor if your travel plans take you out this weekend.

Bundle Up Everyone! Thanksgiving Week Start Off with a Winter-Like Chill

Early Week Chill:

Thanksgiving week is kicking off on a very winter-like note thanks to a pair of cold fronts that quietly came through during the day Sunday. Temperatures for most of our local airports have significantly fallen from the mid to upper 50s yesterday to the upper teens and low 20s this morning. 

Thankfully, winds aren't nearly as strong as they were on Sunday. But, even the slightest wind will be capable of bringing our wind chill values down into the single-digits before mid-morning. So it goes without saying that you should dress for the weather this morning and put on a few extra layers before you step out the doorway. With high pressure in control, sunshine is expected to dominate our skies for most if not all of the day Monday.

Aside from a few passing clouds during the afternoon, a lingering northwesterly breeze will keep our temperatures in check. Highs to kick off the week are only expected to climb into the mid 30s, which if you're keeping score lands 20°-25° cooler than highs Sunday afternoon. 

This early-week chill is expected to continue into Tuesday morning, with overnight lows falling back down into the upper teens. Winds then take a turn to the southwest, gusting up to 25 to 30 mph at times. This will help temperatures bounce back into the upper 40s by Tuesday afternoon and then the low 50s by Wednesday.Guidance then shows our next cold front sliding through Wednesday night, bringing another quick drop in temperatures just in time for the Thanksgiving holiday.

Thanksgiving Forecast:

With that cold front does come a small chance for a few showers to linger into the Thanksgiving holiday. But guidance continues to show us drying out by the afternoon with temperatures only peaking in the mid to upper 30s. 

Another cooler-than-average day is anticipated for Friday with highs hovering around the 40-degree mark for the upcoming weekend. As far as any travel impacts are concerned. Expect few, if any significant issues straight through the holiday weekend. A system sliding to our west and southwest may bring a slight chance for a passing shower or two Saturday. But we'll have to see if models continue to trend in that direction over the next few days. 

Single digit wind chills expected Monday morning

 

When you wake up Monday morning it will feel more like January or February, rather than late November, as wind chills are expected to plummet into the teens late Sunday night, and then single digits by Monday morning.  A strong cold front passed through the region early Sunday bringing with it a few light rain showers, but also a lot of wind during the afternoon and evening.  While for most the wind gusts were below 40 mph, a few locations had peak wind gusts reach 40-45 mph, with Rockford recording a peak wind gusts of over 50 mph.

The strong winds will subside some through the night, but remain around 20 mph through morning.  Strong high pressure currently moving through the northern Plains will remain west of the Mississippi River during much of the day Monday, keeping winds from the northwest through the evening.  Wind speeds won't be nearly as strong as Sunday, but a breeze around 20 mph will keep afternoon wind chills in the mid to upper 20s.

This after chills start out in the single digits Monday morning as the actual air temperature dips into the mid to upper teens; our coldest night so far this Fall season.  Make sure to drees in layers before heading out.  High temperatures Monday afternoon will only warm into the low to mid 30s, roughly 20 degrees colder than temperatures were Saturday and Sunday.  

Monday morning won't be our only cold start to the day this week as temperatures are once again forecast to drop into the low to mid teens.  Wind chills, however, won't be quite as cold as winds late Monday night and Tuesday morning are expected to be much more light thanks to the center of high pressure closer to the Stateline.  Highs on Tuesday will warm into the mid 40s.

Chill Sticks Around For Friday, Warming Up This Weekend

Cold Friday Morning:

There it is folks! The Stateline saw it's first single-digit wind chill of the season as Rochelle for a brief moment felt like 9-degrees. BRRRR. As far as temperatures are concerned, most were able to drop into the mid to upper teens thanks to a mostly clear night and light surface winds. 

So, you don't want to leave the house this morning without putting on a few extra layers to stay warm. The chill does hang around for our Friday before we see a significant jump in our daily highs for the upcoming upcoming weekend. 

Remaining Chilly:

Friday begins on a sun-filled note, with clouds increasing into the afternoon. Although our wind flow is out of the south and southeast today, temperatures only climb a few degrees from yesterday. Most of our local airports should land in the upper 30s, with a spot or two hitting the 40-degree mark. 

One positive to today's forecast is that we don't have to deal with a gusty wind like we did during the later half of Thursday. Winds throughout the day stay light, with gusts only topping out around 15 mph. Cloud cover hangs around into the overnight hours as a weak disturbance slides in from the Upper Midwest. We may see the sun peek out a few times on Saturday. But the biggest difference as we move into the weekend is our jump in temperatures. 

Warmer Weekend:

It feels like the temperature roller coaster we've been on during the month of November is never-ending. Fortunately for us, temperatures will be on the rise into the weekend. With winds being more out of the southwest Saturday, highs will quickly climb into the low 50s, landing 10°-15° warmer than highs this afternoon. 

Guidance does show a  disturbance sliding in late Saturday bringing with it a small chance for showers Saturday night. Rain chances continue into Sunday, with temperatures falling back into the upper 40s. After the cold front slides through, another round of cold air is expected to sink down from the Upper Midwest and southern Canada, resulting in a drop in our temperatures into next week. The work week kicks off with lows falling into the upper teens and low 20s, with highs only climbing into the low 30s by Monday afternoon. 

Windy Thursday Ahead, Weather Cooperates for Tonight's Partial Lunar Eclipse

Split Down The Middle:

The Stateline has experienced quite the roller coaster ride when it comes to our daily high temperatures during the month of November. If we set aside the only seasonable day which was back on the 5th, the amount of above-average days and below-average days is split right down the middle. With that being said, the fluctuation in our temperatures is expected to continue thanks to the strong frontal boundary that came through Wednesday morning.

Windy, Cold Thursday:

The frigidly cold air that we're waking up to this morning makes yesterday's warmth feel like a distant memory. Temperatures this time around are starting off 25° to 30° cooler, with most registering in the upper 20s and low 30s. 

It goes without saying that you'll want to put on a few extra layers before it's time to step out the door. Sunshine kicks the day off, but a disturbance sliding in from the Upper Great Plains will help clouds gather by the mid-day hours. This does bring the potential for a few flurries this afternoon.

But the combination of the increase in clouds, plus today's gusty northwest wind will limit high temperatures to the upper 30s. If you plan to travel, especially during the afternoon and early-evening hours, use extra caution. 

Winds will be strongest during this time frame, with gusts peaking between 30-35 mph. Guidance does show clouds clearing out, and winds easing up a bit as we head into the overnight hours. For those that have their alarms set to view tonight's partial lunar eclipse, it looks like the weather will cooperate for us to view the entire event.

Tonight's Partial Lunar Eclipse:

Although the weather remains dry overnight, it's the cold you'll want to prepare for if you plan on viewing tonight's lunar eclipse. Temperatures when the eclipse maxes out (around 3:02AM) will be dropping into the mid to low 20s, with wind chills registering in the teens. 

The heavier coat will be a must, along with a few extra layers. The same goes for those heading out Friday morning. Another quiet weather day on Friday, with partly to mostly cloudy skies on tap. Temperature, while still below-average, will end up closer to the 40-degree mark by the afternoon.

Big Changes Follow This Morning's Strong Cold Front

Showers Possible Early:

While it seems that the overall likelihood for a round of showers this morning has trended downward, a chance still remains up until mid-morning. Anything that falls will be light or drizzly, so we won't pick up much rainfall. The bigger weather story with this morning's cold front is the gusty winds and rush of cold air that slides in behind it. This will help drop our high temperatures for the second half of the work week.

Cooling Down Post-Front:

Winds following this morning's frontal passage will immediately shift to the northwest, allowing a much colder air-mass to usher in from the Upper Great Plains. This will help us go from the upper 50s around sunrise to the mid to upper 40s by the end of the afternoon. A majority of our Wednesday will be spent under mostly cloudy skies, with some clearing expected to occur during the evening hours. This will set the stage for radiational cooling to take place overnight, bringing temps down into the upper 20s by Thursday morning. 

Cold, Windy Thursday:

Sunshine returns Thursday, but it won't help our temperatures much as afternoon highs only peak in the mid to upper 30s. Similar to today, winds will be a big part of Thursday's forecast. The only difference however, they will pack more of a punch. Winds will be out of the west-northwest, gusting up to 25-30 mph at times, with isolated gusts up to 35 mph. After falling into the upper 20s Thursday morning, overnight lows will be even colder come Friday morning, with most in the low 20s. 

Partial Lunar Eclipse:

You may have already heard about this but a partial lunar eclipse is scheduled to occur during the early stages of Friday morning. It's considered a "partial" eclipse mainly due to the fact that 99% of the moon will be covered by the earth's shadow. 

According to the National Weather Service, this will be the longest partial lunar eclipse since 1441, which is exactly 580 years ago. We'll have approximately a six hour window, with the partial eclipse beginning at 1:18AM, ending around 4:47AM. The weather looks to cooperate as high pressure remains in control for Thursday night and Friday morning. You'll just want to dress in extra layers as temperatures will be falling into the low 20s!