Light Snow/Mix Early Thursday, Rain Chances Return by Friday Afternoon

Morning Wintry Mix:

Although it was a rather chilly day across the region, yesterday's sunshine gave us a much-needed break from this active stretch of weather. Highs under mostly sunny skies reached the low 30s, which lands only a few degrees below average. Now, I wish I could say that Wednesday's beautiful sunshine will be carrying on into our Thursday. 

However, that's far from the truth as our weather pattern shifts to a more active state for the remainder of the work week. Guidance shows the first of two systems is scheduled to arrive today. With today's weak disturbance comes the potential for scattered light snow showers, mainly during the morning hours. Rain may mix in a times, especially once temperatures climb above freezing. Our chances look to come to an end quickly, leaving us with a mostly cloudy sky for the afternoon. 

Friday's Storm System:

Cloud cover will linger into the early stages of our Friday, with temps falling on either side of the 30-degree mark. A trough coming off the Rocky Mountain will bring us the second and stronger system of the two, resulting in rain chances by the early afternoon hours. Tomorrow's activity will be widely scattered and most, if not all of the Stateline will get in on these rain chances. 

Once the cold front slides through, temperatures are expected to dip below the freezing mark by early Saturday morning. This will bring the potential for a mix of light rain and snow before chances come to an end before mid-day. Skies will then slowly clear into the afternoon, with highs topping out in the 30s. The cool-down that follows Friday's storm system will be very short-lived as temperatures will rebound quickly, becoming unseasonably warm by early next week.

Feeling More Like October:

Guidance shows the jet stream taking a trip to our north, allowing a much warmer air-mass to filter into the Midwest and the Great Lakes. Instead of feeling like mid-December, we'll feel more like mid-October as highs jump into the 50s both Monday and Tuesday, with the potential for 60-degree weather come Wednesday. 

In case you were wondering, Rockford on average sees three days with highs of 60 degrees or higher during the month of December. It'll be important to monitor how models trend with temperatures over the next few days as the warmth may continue into the second half of next week.

Sunshine Returns Today, Pattern Turns More Active for Thursday and Friday

It's Been Awhile:

Winter was in full force on Tuesday. With a low of 9-degrees and a high of just 24-degrees, Tuesday not became the coldest day of the season thus far, and the coldest day in nearly 10 months. Similar to the many cold snaps we've experienced during the fall season, this one will also be short-lived. 

Wednesday begins on a cloudy note, with sunshine quickly returning by the mid-day hours. Highs will jump from the low 20s Tuesday to the low 30s, which is still considered seasonably chilly for the December 8th time-frame. Tonight begins with a few passing clouds, with clouds and our surface winds increasing into the early stages of Thursday. This is all in response to our next weak disturbance that will bring a brief round of precipitation to the area. 

Active Pattern Returns:

Guidance shows a scattered mix of light rain and snow sliding in shortly before sunrise. Chances then look to continue into the mid to late morning hours, with mostly cloudy skies being left behind for the afternoon hours. Despite the cloud cover, a decent southerly breeze will allow highs to surge even further. By Thursday afternoon, temperatures will top out in the low to mid 40s.

Friday's System:

A second and stronger storm system will quickly develop behind Thursday's weak disturbance, taking aim at the region for the late-day hours on Friday. Forecast models continue to show this low sweeping across the central plains, sliding south of the Stateline Friday night into Saturday. What starts off as a light mix of rain and snow will quickly transition to rain by Friday afternoon.

Winds will remain out of the south, which will allow temperatures to jump into the mid to possibly upper 40s. Early Saturday morning, a cold front is expected to pass on through, bringing a quick round of cold air from the northwest. 

This will allow for a quick transition to light snow before chances come to an end by mid-late morning. Highs will fall a couple of degrees with most landing in the mid to upper 30s. Ridging aloft is expected to slide in behind Friday's strong system, allowing an upward trend in our temperatures into next week. Sunday and Monday will feature highs in the mid to upper 50s, with 50s in the works for next Tuesday. In other words, the ups and downs continue as we enter the third week of December.

Frigidly Cold Tuesday, Slight Improvements in the Temperature Department on the Way

Coldest Day of the Season:

Northern Illinois and Southern Wisconsin spent a majority of  the morning hours on Monday under a Wind Advisory And for good reason as most of our regional airports registered a peak wind gust between 40 to 50 mph. With that being said, Monday's blustery conditions allowed the COLDEST air of the season thus far to usher in from the north. 

Temperatures early Tuesday morning are sitting in the single-digits, with wind chills registering on either side of the 0-degree mark. This frigidly cold morning is a sign for things to come as highs this afternoon will struggle to climb out of the twenties.

Clouds thicken up early in response to our next system that glides in from the west. This system was poised at one point to bring the Stateline it's first  accumulating snowfall of the season. However, with models trending downward in the storm system's intensity, that's not the case anymore. With that being said, a few flurries and snow showers will be possible into the evening hours. Highs for most look to top out in the low to mid 20s, a mere 10°-20° degrees cooler than where we typically are at this point in December.

Midweek Outlook:

Cloud cover is expected to stick around overnight, resulting in a very slow temperature drop into Wednesday morning. The day starts off in the low 20s, with highs climbing back into the mid 30s by the afternoon. This is all thanks to a little mixed sunshine and a warmer wind out of the west and southwest. Much more significant warming follows as the week draws to a close. Temperatures head back well into the 40s Thursday, despite there being a chance for a light rain or snow shower.

Blustery Monday, Few Flurries/Snow Showers Tuesday

Wind Advisory:

The big weather story as we enter the new work week is going to be strong winds and the cold that comes along for the ride. Earlier this morning, a Wind Advisory went into place for the entire area and is expected to remain in effect until mid-day. 

During this stretch, wind gusts could range anywhere from 40-50 mph which will be strong enough to blow away any light weight objects of holiday decorations that aren't secured properly. With these strong winds, there is the possibility for isolated power outages. For those traveling during the morning commute, make sure to take it slow, especially if you travel in a high-profile vehicle.  

Coldest Night Ahead:

Highs today will actually happen during the early morning hours as very cold air continues to usher in behind yesterday's frontal passage. Walking out, temperatures will be in the upper 20s/low 30s, falling into the low 20s by the evening commute. 

Winds will continue to remain gusty throughout the afternoon, with gusts up to 30-40 mph possible. It won't be until after sunset in which we the region sees significant improvements in the wind department. But this wind is setting the stage for the coldest night of the season thus far as temperatures are expected to fall into the single-digits by Tuesday morning. 

Few Flurries Tuesday:

Along with the frigid cold does come an increase in cloud cover as our next storm system slides to our west and to our south. Remember when we said that accumulating snow was possible with this system late last week? 

This is one of the reasons why we say we can't hash out the finer details until a day or two before the event. The forecast went from "accumulations possible" to "a couple of flurries and snow showers". This is also a good example on why you should trust your local meteorologist instead of trusting those social media accounts that use model data as click-bait. Cloudy skies do remain as well as the frigid cold. Highs will struggle to climb out of the 20s. Temperatures are expected to climb into the 30s by Wednesday and then into the 40s by Thursday.

Mild Trend Continues for Friday, Slightly Cooler For the Weekend

Remaining Mild:

Early December? More like late-October! Yesterday's high at the Rockford International Airport came to a whopping 56-degrees, landing 15° to 20° above our normal highs for this time of year. This mild stretch of weather does continue for Friday before cooler air moves in for the upcoming weekend.The day kicks off with a bit of cloud cover thanks to another weak disturbance sliding to the north of the Stateline. 

While we have been able to avoid the brunt of this disturbance, a light shower or flurry cannot be ruled out into sunrise. Once this system pulls away, cloud cover is expected to stick around for the morning hours before decreasing this afternoon. Highs again look to top out in the low 50s, marking the fourth consecutive day where our daily highs either hit or eclipsed the 50-degree mark. In other words, it'll be a great day to put up the Christmas decorations if you haven't done so already.

Weekend Outlook:

The weather is expected to remain quiet for the first half of the weekend. Under a partly to mostly sunny sky, temperatures will end up cooler with most topping out in the low 40s. Despite cooler conditions, Saturday will be another great day to get your house ready for the Christmas holiday. 

Clouds cover is expected to increase late in the day and into Saturday night ahead of Sunday's storm system. Temperatures will be cold enough Sunday morning to where the event could start off with a light mix of rain and snow. Maybe some freezing rain in the mix. With us being on the warmer side of the low, any mixed precipitation looks to transition to rain. The rain will come ahead of a cold front that will get our temperatures back into the cooler-than-normal territory for the Stateline starting Monday.

Tuesday's Snow Potential:

Of the upcoming system's we're keeping an eye on, Tuesday's has the potential to bring the Stateline it's first accumulating snowfall of the season. Since we're still 4 days away from the actual event, changes to the forecast are expected.

 It's during this time when scenarios emerge, such as what is more likely or what is less likely to occur. It's not until we're one to two days out when the finer details become more clear. We still don't know the extra storm track, the intensity of the storm, and the snowfall totals that will accompany it. At this point, it's important to know that accumulating snow is possible. Chances may linger into the early stages of Wednesday before conditions dry out by mid-morning. 

Today Will Be the Warmest Day of the Next Seven, Light Mix Possible Early Friday

50-Degree Stretch:

Despite plenty of cloud cover throughout the day on Wednesday, highs across the region had no issue surpassing the 50-degree mark. It's fair to say that 50s in December aren't that uncommon. In fact, it was just two years ago when Rockford observed it's warmest Christmas on record with a high of 59°. According to the National Weather Service, Rockford on average observes two-point-five 50-degree days during the month of December. With the way the forecast is shaping up for the rest of the work week, the potnetial is there for us to top that mark before we head into the weekend.

Sunshine Returns: 

Ahead of this morning's cold front, temperatures are much warmer to start with spots registering in the upper 40s and low 50s. Cloud cover early on is expected to give way to increasing sunshine, with highs topping out in the mid to upper 50s. 

Comparing that to our average highs for early December, that lands 15° to 20° above average. Now, behind this morning's frontal passage, a breeze does stick around for the afternoon. Northwest winds at times could approach 20-25 mph before easing up during the evening commute. Skies remain dry into the overnight hours, with clouds increasing after midnight thanks to yet another weak disturbance that slides in for the early stages of Friday. 

Light Mix Friday:

Guidance continues to show a light mix of rain and snow developing before sunrise Friday morning, with much of the precipitation being confined to our areas up in southern Wisconsin. Similar to the past few weak disturbances, the one that's slated for Friday makes a quick exit, allowing clouds to decrease into the afternoon. As cooler air continues to filter in behind this morning's cold front, highs will tumble for Friday. We may manage to squeeze in one more day in the low 50s before temperatures fall into the 40s for the upcoming weekend. 

Warmth Peaks Thursday, Cooling Down by the Wednesday

Historic November:

Welp, that's it folks. November is now in the books. And with that being said, November 2021 will go down as the 2nd driest on record, second to 1917 which came in with 0.09" of rainfall. As we now jump into December, the main focus weather-wise is going to be the weak clipper system that brings us a chance for some light precipitation today, and then the unseasonably warm stretch that begins the month.

Wednesday's Disturbance:

In a similar fashion to how Monday panned out, another quick-moving disturbance is expected bring us a chance for precipitation during the early stage of our Wednesday. This event in particular may start out as a light mix of rain/sleet since temperatures will be hovering close to the freezing mark to start. 

As we warm up, a quick transition to rain is expected with the chances coming to to a close by mid-morning. Both accumulations and impacts to the morning commute are highly unlikely. It's also important to point out that this morning's round of light showers will have a bit of dry air to fight off. In other words, our regional radar may show that we have precipitation overhead, but the dry air that's in place will evaporate anything before it reaches the surface.

Warmth Peaks Thursday:

The rest of our Wednesday will remain dry under a mostly cloudy sky. The combination of a little late-day sunshine, plus a gusty southwesterly wind,  will help send our temperatures into the low 50s for a second consecutive day. 

Cloud cover may linger into the overnight hours, but another round of dry air will bring the sunshine back for our Thursday. The peak of this upcoming warmth will occur Thursday afternoon as highs are expected to close in on the 60° mark. In fact, our forecast high of 57° will just fall short of the record high for December 2nd which is 64° set back in 2021. 

Cooling Down for the Weekend:

Despite a cold front sliding through during the day on Thursday, 50-degree highs will stick around for one more day before we drop back towards normal for the upcoming weekend. Saturday and Sunday feature highs in the low 40s. 

Guidance has come into agreement on the overall track of a storm system that looks to bring us a chance for a rain/snow mix on Sunday. However, we're still a couple of days out from the actual event so there is still plenty of time for the forecast to change. Not only do we need to keep an eye on that system, there's another system that is slated to move across the state next Tuesday that could bring some snow to the area. Similar to Sunday's system, we're still way too far to know specifics.